NewbScum Greeting Tell

Loopdan · Post Post #0 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:34 am

Newbie scum players are twice as likely to greet the game in their first post as Newbie town players are.

I knew something was off with this post in 1909, and then after this slot in 1912 ended up being scum I went Hmmm... But it really stood out for me in Newbie 1915 (newbscum #1, newbscum #2). And then I played a couple games with URAP where he talked about it, too.

So I started tracking it.

I originally saw the tell as an "enthusiastic greeting" but URAP says it's "greets the game" and I've come around to his way of thinking on this, and the data I pulled is based on his definition of a player giving a generic greeting to the entire game, rather than just a greeting to specific players.

For Newbie games 1900-1923 I found the following:

26 out of 100 Newbtown players greeted the game in their opening post (

26%

).
20 of 35 Newbscum players greeted the game in their opening post (

57.1%

).

You'd be foolish to scumread a player based on this alone, as a quarter of all Newbie town players do it, too. But it's one tool in finding scum fakeness in RVS. Or at least it was until this thread.

TTTT · Post Post #1 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:36 am

dumb tell
lern 2 play

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #2 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:39 am

Hi guys! What's going on in this thread?

ISO · Post Post #3 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:49 am

Hey wow

nice to be here
my pred sure was towny right!!

I'll catch up tonight and give my thoughts

Creature · Post Post #4 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:54 am

Hello

It's me

Creature · Post Post #5 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:55 am

Woah, newbscum claiming VT in their first post is unheard of.

Ramcius · Post Post #6 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am

I'll teach you math - 20/46 is ~43%. Is it really a scumtell?

Creature · Post Post #7 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:02 am

If it's significantly different from town %, yes.

Ramcius · Post Post #8 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:11 am

In post 7, Creature wrote:If it's significantly different from town %, yes.

Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players

Xtoxm · Post Post #9 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:13 am

most newbs wont read this thread, so still pretty valid

nomnomnom · Post Post #10 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:59 am

Greeted the game in Mini 2006 as newbscum and I was called out by urap, so I guess I'm adding to that statistic

TTTT · Post Post #11 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:13 pm

In post 6, Ramcius wrote:I'll teach you math - 20/46 is ~43%. Is it really a scumtell?

28% chance of rolling scum in newbie games

TTTT · Post Post #12 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:14 pm

In post 8, Ramcius wrote:
In post 7, Creature wrote:If it's significantly different from town %, yes.
Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players

71% chance of rolling town in newbie games

TTTT · Post Post #13 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:14 pm

teach us more math

Cheery Dog · Post Post #14 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:16 pm

But is not greeting the thread a towntell?

Fumuki · Post Post #15 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:34 pm

I was ready to say "that is bullshit" until I remembered that in my newbscum game I actually greeted the thread.

It was a different situation though but yeah, greeted the thread.

The enthusiasm was real though.

ISO · Post Post #16 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:34 pm

In post 8, Ramcius wrote:
In post 7, Creature wrote:If it's significantly different from town %, yes.
Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players

Bayesian:

P(X is scum | X did a greet) = P(X did a greet | X is scum) * P(X is scum) / P(X did a greet)

= (20 / 35) * (2 / 9) / (46 / 135)

~= 37%, compared to a baseline 2/9 of ~22%. (I'm not sure where TTTT's 71%/28% is coming from?)

Most scumtells are going to come more often from town players than scum players, due to a combination of their not-100% reliability and the fact that most players are simply town; it can still be a valid scumtell.

MaryJoLisa · Post Post #17 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:31 pm

Oh hey guys! Nice to see you all.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #18 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:33 pm

TTTT · Post Post #19 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:04 pm

In post 17, MaryJoLisa wrote:Oh hey guys! Nice to see you all.

yeah you kept doing it Newbie games as town and made it less of a scumtell

TTTT · Post Post #20 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:05 pm

In post 16, implosion wrote:compared to a baseline 2/9 of ~22%. (I'm not sure where TTTT's 71%/28% is coming from?)

lol me neither
guess I do need more math lessons

Loopdan · Post Post #21 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:21 pm

You are an idiot.

MaryJoLisa · Post Post #22 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:39 pm

In post 20, TTTT wrote:
In post 16, implosion wrote:compared to a baseline 2/9 of ~22%. (I'm not sure where TTTT's 71%/28% is coming from?)
lol me neither
guess I do need more math lessons

Class starts at 8:30am. See you there.

In post 21, Loopdan wrote:You are an idiot.

You should make a visit to the Secret Alt thread.

Raskolnikov · Post Post #23 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:21 pm

Hi guys, wow a lot has been posted already. I'm here now. Me, not anybody else, but myself. And this is me just saying hello. Right now, today. So, hello! Just wanna announce my arrival, you know? Because I'm present and involved now. Just like everybody else. Contributing and communicating with my fellow players. Participating as I always intended to do and will continue to. It just comes naturally. Anyways I loved working with you guys today, you're all really fun. That was it for today I hope you found it insightful, I'll catch up later, until then stay safe and continue nabbing those bad guys, haha! ;) See you all around tomorrow!

Ramcius · Post Post #24 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:27 pm

In post 16, implosion wrote:
In post 8, Ramcius wrote:
In post 7, Creature wrote:If it's significantly different from town %, yes.
Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players
Bayesian:

P(X is scum | X did a greet) = P(X did a greet | X is scum) * P(X is scum) / P(X did a greet)

= (20 / 35) * (2 / 9) / (46 / 135)

~= 37%, compared to a baseline 2/9 of ~22%. (I'm not sure where TTTT's 71%/28% is coming from?)

Most scumtells are going to come more often from town players than scum players, due to a combination of their not-100% reliability and the fact that most players are simply town; it can still be a valid scumtell.

What this formula shows?

TTTT is bad at math, it supposed to be 22 and 78 I guess