Newbie 1926: Baseball (Game Over)

[teacher]

on the off chance you’re around, urist and DENMON are both well into the prod range.

[teacher]

on the off chance you’re around, urist and DENMON are both well into the prod range.

EBWOP.

[ceejayvinoya]

What’s the count?

CJ you got more or good?

Been skimming just want to know for when I read up tonight.

Yeah I'm okay

[ceejayvinoya]

I don't really have a preference between denmon and godmid.

Either is fine.

I'll probably switch to the other if were still undecided and a couple hours away from deadline.

[brassherald]

on the off chance you’re around, urist and DENMON are both well into the prod range.

EBWOP.

They have been prodded it will be reflected in post 0 tomorrow.

[teacher]

Cheers. Oddly Tuesdays are my date night as well. Hope yours was fun.

[teacher]

Eh, Im going to follow the advice I give my students on multiple choice tests. When in doubt, go with your first instinct.

VOTE: Godmid

L-1.

[the worst]

VOTE: Godmid

[the worst]

Subject: Newbie 1866 - Canine Mafia [GAME OVER]

In case day ends quickly some advice for TPRs (just general advice, Una/Pingu jump in if you disagree or have more to add)

Cop

-- DO NOT TARGET STRONG TOWN PLAYERS OR PEOPLE WHO SEEM TO "KNOW SOMETHING". they will be night killed and your results will be useless. IME cops are best suited targeting players who are kinda null reads, leaning one way or the other. if you can reach day 3 (let's say 3 town vs 2 scum) and out yourself along with your results, that's an instant town win! even in 4v1, you can push the decision down to a 50/50 lynch. If you do get a guilty it's generally advised to either 1) out yourself instantly, or 2) make it REALLY obvious who your guilty is so if you flip town can lynch them

Neopolitan

-- go for similar targets to docs. not super obvious townies, but also not people who are super shady. do not out your results right away. town power roles and scum power roles both return "not vanilla", so if you do out a NV result it can fuck the town. Try and put them in a scummier range, if anything. If you get a Vanilla result, try and townread them subtly but in a way that we'll notice if you die. If you survive until massclaim this almost nullifies scum fakeclaims.

Tracker

-- target the shady people cops need to avoid! if you track someone to a target and they're not dead there's a decent chance the person you tracked is a town power role. reassess this based on the setup once another power role has flipped / claimed etc. If you track someone to a player who dies that night, out your result immediately as on the balance of probabilities it was the night kill.

Jailkeeper

-- i hate this role you can be a roleblocker or a doctor. if you think you can guess who is most likely to be the scum killer tonight, target them--but this function is a lot stronger lategame IMO. for the time being, be a doctor. try and target players who you would kill if you were scum (priority 1: people who you think might be town power roles. priority 2: very towny players....IMO)

Doctor

-- put on your evil hat and think "who would I kill?", then target that person. As with JK priority#1 is town power roles who you think the scumteam will be on to (generally speaking, scum are better at spotting townies who are playing like power roles than town are. so if you have a suspicion, the scumteam likely do, too). Priority #2 is to target very towny players. FRIENDLY REMINDER if you target a player and they don't die, it is very likely they're town. so try and make it clear but not too clear with your reads d2 that you've "cop cleared" them.


The Wiki has shitloads more info but I'm lazy. Google "mafiascum wiki [role name]" and have a good read.

Good luck<3

just gonna drop this iconic copypasta from a game I played a thousand years ago here for any TPRs out there. obviously don't interact with this post unless there's something you agree with at a mechanical/theory level because acknowledging it may be considered a TPR tell

this came from a game where I was trying to subtly hint at who the jk should target btw. I've had some serious successes with people sheeping these tips hence I keep digging it up

in this game the dream cop target is lavender imo because she's kinda townish but hard to get a firm read on. outside of that {Ryno, whig/Urist} are good targets for now.

won't talk about doc/jk targets because manipulating nightkills rarely works out well

also just requoting this bad boy

and once more for good measure
glglgl

[teacher]

I was searching that up to twilight it myself. JK-act based on color of flip as discussed in 432

[the worst]

think ryno and Urist are better cop targets than Lav now btw
also teacher's point that if this reds, jailkeeper should target their #1 scumread (lack of a NK means you either kept the scum, or the scum NK target) is valid. you become a de facto cop by virtue of the fact if you target correctly night kills don't go through

[the worst]

..great minds

[teacher]

have a good day duck.

In case Im not kicking tomorrow, I will leave you with my VCA thoughts. I think that one wagon was on scum. I think that one scum was on my wagon. If this flips green, I think one scum is on this one.

[the worst]

I agree with both of those assessments (I was gonna keep quiet because I don't think I'll be NK'd today). The push on you was also very strangely disconnected from reality in a way that makes me think someone thought it'd go through.

Hope you have a good day too. If the mafia gods are good we can jam more tomorrow.

[teacher]

FWIW, a red + a JK + a NK =/ a complete clear. Column B and lucky scum can happen 15%.

[Godmid]

I'm still allowed to keep posting until the start of night, correct?

[teacher]

yup. If town, definitely leave a will.

[the worst]

On my lunch break if anyone wants to talk about stuff before night.

[Godmid]

I already gave most of my thoughts on #452. I still find the Denmon + Urist scumteam to be appealing.

I think that my lynch was at least partially based off of misunderstanding what I was trying to do with my opening posts. However, I don't think anyone was intentionally trying to misread and scumpaint it and I'm willing to believe it was an honest misunderstanding for the most part.

If there is a cop or neopolitan, I would think that Denmon is the best target. I think that if Denmon is scum, town will probably win off of a check on him and I think that if he is town, a green check on him will be a strong signal that town is continuing down the wrong path (it would also mean that TW and urap2 were incorrect with both of their D1 pushes). I still do understand wanting to check Rhyno since he is being unhelpful and it's likely going to be hard to guess his alignment.

Even though I had my early suspicions between TW and urap2 and I was testing to see if I could make a bit of a push on TW, I'm ultimately still going to believe that if multiple players who have actually played with TW have a strong town lean on him, he is probably town. It would be very dicey though if they have an overly fixed idea about how TW is going to play as mafia, and they are heavily hurting the town's chances of winning if they are clearing him under misguided assumptions.

Spoiler: Tin Foil Hat Theory

Just before my death also seems like a good time to give a tin foil hat theory, so I'll go for it. I don't particularly love the interaction between urap2 and TW right at the end of the day. Two players had already claimed VT by that point, both of whom were the players that had spent all day pushing for. Trying to flip the vote towards TW and that point by urap2 seems like poor discipline in the best case and suspicious at worst, especially since it was so unlikely that the vote would flip towards TW. As such I'll present the idea of a TW + urap scumteam. I might have some bias towards seeing this possibility as more plausible then it actually is since I've seen it used in a different game somewhat recently, but the general idea is that the mafia aggressively try to towncore each other, thereby gaining heavy influence on who gets lynched and influencing peoples reads in the wrong direction. Even if one of the mafia gets lynched later on, players don't even necessarily consider that the mafia would be playing so closely off of one another in day chat, making it incredibly effective when it's unexpected.

I by no means think that situation is that likely given the current information, but it might be worth considering later on if the "PoE" pool ends up being composed of town.

[the worst]

I'm glad you spoke up about the tinfoil (I kind of wish you'd said it earlier because I think intense OTT paranoia is very towntelling for newer players ). It's totally valid, and no theory should go ignored.

My only concern with copping DENMON is he's very likely to eat a lynch tomorrow. Regardless of his alignment if the cop checks the d2 lynch, the check is wasted. It's better to clear under the radar people who aren't likely to be imminently lynched.

[the worst]

I think denmon is most likely a red check though

[Godmid]

Even if the cop check ends up being unnecessary for Denmon, I think town will be in an excellent position if Denmon is mafia regardless of anything else. I think that Denmon is the missing link and that if he is in fact town, it's crucial that information is found as quickly as possible instead of assuming he is scum and prepping the day 2 lynch on him without a night check.

[the worst]

That's an option.

The other trick is if there's a cop and they check, for example, myself and urap2

then say teacher and lavender are killed n1 and n2

then we enter d3 with a cop, two confirmed town, and two confirmed scum. which is an auto win for town.

I stand by my theory for approaching copgames but what you're suggesting is a fine alternative

[the worst]

that's obviously assuming say cjv/urist was the scumteam and urap/me are town or something. you get the idea, it's largely theoretical talk.

[brassherald]

Votecount 1.Final

godmid (5) ~

Ryno56, Ceejayvinoya, u r a person 2, Teacher, the worst

DENMON (2) ~

Godmid, Lavender

Teacher (2) ~

PvtUrist, DENMON

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Mod Notes

A lynch has been achieved