Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[Shoshin]

RC also manipulated Fumuki into voting me even though Fumuki didn't agree with it. You can review this exchange a couple pages back. RC states false & misleading things about me, Fumuki tries to push back a little, and RC basically just gaslights the shit out of Fumuki until she votes me. If anything should steer you away from my wagon, it's the way RC's pushing it.

[Titus]

Unless you're seeking a flash wagon on RC, I do not understand the obsession here.

[Shoshin]

RC's a better lynch than me. Can we actually lynch him? I don't know. Worm's also a better lynch than me.

In terms of "obsession," that isn't how I'd characterize what I'm saying. RC's leading a mislynch on me by aggressively manipulating my strongest townread into voting me against their will, & he's doing it at the end of the day when there's little hope for me to mount a defense or to lead a counterwagon on him. I want to make sure that if I'm lynched people at least see the things I'm pointing out. I wouldn't call this "obsession," it's just pointing out the reality of what's happening to me right now. What don't you understand about this?

[Shoshin]

Unless you're seeking a flash wagon on RC, I do not understand the obsession here.

If you're about to be mislynched by someone aggressively manipulating players into voting you, & there's no time in the day phase to wagon that player, what would you do? Stay silent about what they're doing?

[Shoshin]

Right now, I think it's dumb to lynch active players though.

If you believe this, then you should naturally be inclined towards voting Worm over me. Am I correct in assuming this?

[Titus]

Unless you're seeking a flash wagon on RC, I do not understand the obsession here.

If you're about to be mislynched by someone aggressively manipulating players into voting you, & there's no time in the day phase to wagon that player, what would you do? Stay silent about what they're doing?

Push my biggest SR and guess the team?

[Titus]

Right now, I think it's dumb to lynch active players though.

If you believe this, then you should naturally be inclined towards voting Worm over me. Am I correct in assuming this?

Assuming worm is inactive (which you appear not to believe) and all speech being equal, yes.

With your words, I gotta ask is RC town?

[Shoshin]

I already guessed the team as RC/Egix/Worm, and that was before RC started pushing my lynch. It so happens that these three coordinated a push on me at the last minute of this day phase when it looked like Worm was the lynch.

I've been very clear about saying I'm confident the entirety of scum are within the group of RC, Egix, Worm, Emperor, or you, Titus. And I'm happy to lynch anyone in that group today, though I've repeatedly said that your predecessor (Celica) was the towniest of this group.

[Shoshin]

The only thing that gives me pause about saying RC's scum is his high post count.

[Shoshin]

If I could lynch anyone today, it'd probably be Egix. I can't make this lynch happen (or RC's lynch) so I'm voting Worm. I don't see what's difficult to understand about my position.

[Titus]

I"ve been in your situation with RC more times than I care to count as either alignment. I get your situation but the situation is NAI.

Why that pool?

[Shoshin]

I have townreads on Fumuki, Creature, NSG, GIF, and Eyes.

[Shoshin]

If I'm wrong about any of those reads, it's Eyes.

[Shoshin]

Fumuki, Creature, NSG, & GIF are locktown for me.

[Shoshin]

I initially townread Celica & that was part of why I ended up with a pool of RC/Egix/Worm. GIF pointed out a fairly scummy post from Celica so that's why you're no longer town, Titus. But from your perspective of knowing you're town, this game's fairly simple to solve.

[Shoshin]

In order of most town to most scummy:

Fumuki
Creature
GIF
NSG
Eyes
Titus/Emperor
RC/Worm
Egix

[Titus]

Fumuki, Creature, NSG, & GIF are locktown for me.

I am playing while driving. I do not have time to read. How are your Mia ppl lock town

[Shoshin]

I don't think my reasons for townreading these players will make sense to anyone but me but I'll try to explain:

Fumuki's town because the way she played around RC/Wizard/Baezu on D1 strongly indicates town. I also think Fumuki's push on me for meta reasons when Fumuki doesn't even know me, and the sheer level of engagement that Fumuki brought to the game, almost never comes from scum. It showed someone who was misguided but genuine in their attempts to sort me. I'm also confident in this read in part because of NSG, whose reasons for townreading Fumuki helped convince me as well.

Creature's town because the way he played around Baezu on D1 strongly suggests he's town (calling him scum after the point where scum would have known Baezu was doctor), & Creature's self-vote almost never comes from scum him in this context whereas I've seen him do it as town before. Also, he's defending me at a time when he had no reason to, especially since he had been calling me "underwhelming" earlier in the game and easily could have jumped on my wagon. Lack of opportunism is strongly town indicative for Creature.

GIF's town because of how closely he read through earlier posts in the game, specifically the Eyes/RC interactions & Celica's posts. I also think his decision to vote me to avoid a no lynch, followed by quickly voting Worm, comes from town more often than not. He could have lurked this out instead of unvoting me if he were scum.

NSG's town based in part on the way she interacted around RC, the fact that she correctly convinced me to townread Fumuki when I wasn't sure about that, in effect dismantling our potential 1v1, and because her reads make sense from her perspective of not knowing whether I'm town. I think she's wrong about Egix but otherwise on the right track. I also like that how she approached reading the gamestate in deciding to vote for Worm.

I say Eyes is town in part because I'm sheeping GIF's read on the slot, and in part because I agree with his reasoning that Eyes wouldn't have interacted with RC the way she did if Eyes were scum. I also like that Eyes agrees with all my reads. That's a very good sign.

I have something else for you to consider, Titus.

When RC, GIF, Egix, and Worm voted for your slot, putting you at L-2, I argued in support of lynching within RC/Egix/Worm. If I were scum, I easily could have gone along with that mislynch. But instead, I pushed against it. If you're town, you should view that as town indicative for me.

[Titus]

When RC, GIF, Egix, and Worm voted for your slot, putting you at L-2, I argued in support of lynching within RC/Egix/Worm. If I were scum, I easily could have gone along with that mislynch. But instead, I pushed against it. If you're town, you should view that as town indicative for me.

Breaking this into two parts.

I'm concerned your reads list is opportunistic. The lock townread happen to be the people who can show and change things? Why wouldn't you reconsider them if they leave you high and dry? I need to look at the substantive arguments in detail in a bit.

As for the L-2 comment, I'll suppose it's true but not verify for now. First, if my reads are terrible and that list is mostly town, scum you would want me alive. Second, who was the alternative when I was wagoned? I love the reachout with the minor vote analysis but that's oversimplified.

[Shoshin]

I think simplistic thinking is underrated in mafia, & I think more towns lose to overthinking than underthinking.

I don't think I ever said your reads were terrible so I don't know where that comes from? Are you saying you scumread my townreads? Which ones?

How is my reads list opportunistic? I don't understand what you're saying about "show and change" and "reconsider." I'm always going to reconsider reads as the game progresses. But in this moment, they're locktown.

[Titus]

I don't think I ever said your reads were terrible so I don't know where that comes from? Are you saying you scumread my townreads? Which ones?

I think either you're confused or playing confused. The point was scum you would white knight my prior slot holder if the reads were terrible as the slot would be proscum.

[Shoshin]

First, if my reads are terrible and that list is mostly town, scum you would want me alive. Second, who was the alternative when I was wagoned?

I'm struggling to understand what you're saying in the first point. If I were scum, I'd be doing what I could to survive in a game where lots of people have expressed an interest in lynching me, & that means taking the opportunity to lynch you when presented with it. I don't overthink things as scum, same as I try not to overthink as town.

I'm not sure what you mean by alternative. When you were wagoned, votes were split across the board. You were the first wagon wagon of the day. I was voting Egix at the time. I think Eyes voted Worm at some point. And then NSG voted Worm as well, based on some gamestate reasoning (specifically the fact that lots of players had expressed scumreads on Worm but nobody was voting him). I followed up on Worm because he was one of my scumreads & I realized that Egix wasn't going to happen today since too many players townread that slot.

[Titus]

How is my reads list opportunistic? I don't understand what you're saying about "show and change" and "reconsider." I'm always going to reconsider reads as the game progresses. But in this moment, they're locktown.

All you're lockdown reads are Mia for the most part capable of showing at the last moment.

[Shoshin]

I don't think I ever said your reads were terrible so I don't know where that comes from? Are you saying you scumread my townreads? Which ones?

I think either you're confused or playing confused. The point was scum you would white knight my prior slot holder if the reads were terrible as the slot would be proscum.

This isn't what I was doing. Why are you assuming your slot's reads were terrible?

[Titus]

Day 2 begins now. The deadline is on Monday, April 29, 2019 at 11:15 pm EST, which is in (expired on 2019-04-29 22:15:00).

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Hmph. Back on the road
..got some things to consider. Someone else talk to me please.