Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[Titus]

Titus your thoughts are really really weird

Are you okay

I'd bet something was unclear. Ask?

[NanceFloor]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2
RadiantCowbells	0verki11
mbaki	NanceFloor
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid
Ankamius	Clemency
Creature	Chemist1422
Taly	JohnnyEnglish
chennisden	Titus

Well, that sucks, my #1 and #2 preferred lynches are off the table. :/

Why did we vote this again?

[NanceFloor]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

If the dance games are any indication, unlikely.

~N

[Ankamius]

I mostly just don't understand what approach you're taking with this game that results in those reads Titus

[NanceFloor]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

Highly doubt it unless they’re both deep

So then there are 3 pairs with scum, ~38%.

What pairs have the highest chance at being both town to help narrow the field?

Oka/Me
Ank/Clem

Also I think scum may have paired up with some strong town players to protect themselves. i.e

mbaki

/

nancefloor

.

Is it worth losing a good town player for a chance at scum?

That doesn’t really make sense though. Mbaki is probably town and I think this list doubles that down for me as scum would be more likely to pair me with a weak scum player, which mbaki clearly isn’t.

~N

[NanceFloor]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

Highly doubt it unless they’re both deep

So then there are 3 pairs with scum, ~38%.

What pairs have the highest chance at being both town to help narrow the field?

Oka/Me
Ank/Clem

Also I think scum may have paired up with some strong town players to protect themselves. i.e

mbaki

/

nancefloor

.

Is it worth losing a good town player for a chance at scum?

I think mechanically it’s a better idea to lynch a pair that’s two PoE players, because even if they both flip town we clear out the PoE more for later. I think this is an especially good idea because we had a D1 scum lynch.

Who do you suggest? Anyway, the fact that both my preferred lynches are off the table based on who they’re paired with, makes me really confident in two of my scumreads: overkill11 and TD.

It’s clearly no accident they were paired with RC/tmck. I think that’s extremely telling. I think scum kept two town pairs together: Taly/JE, me/mbaki and I obvtown read Ank, so no way am I touching Clem today.

[BrightEyedFish]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

Highly doubt it unless they’re both deep

So then there are 3 pairs with scum, ~38%.

What pairs have the highest chance at being both town to help narrow the field?

Oka/Me
Ank/Clem

Also I think scum may have paired up with some strong town players to protect themselves. i.e

mbaki

/

nancefloor

.

Is it worth losing a good town player for a chance at scum?

I think mechanically it’s a better idea to lynch a pair that’s two PoE players, because even if they both flip town we clear out the PoE more for later. I think this is an especially good idea because we had a D1 scum lynch.

Who do you suggest? Anyway, the fact that both my preferred lynches are off the table based on who they’re paired with, makes me really confident in two of my scumreads: overkill11 and TD.

It’s clearly no accident they were paired with RC/tmck. I think that’s extremely telling. I think scum kept two town pairs together: Taly/JE, me/mbaki and I obvtown read Ank, so no way am I touching Clem today.

My initial gut reaction was the TL/tmck pair. But I think chen/Titus is the optimal choice.

[NanceFloor]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2
RadiantCowbells	0verki11
mbaki	NanceFloor
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid
Ankamius	Clemency
Creature	Chemist1422
Taly	JohnnyEnglish
chennisden	Titus

Let's play a game of colour the Dancers!

You think tmck is scum? Why has no one else seriously CC’d him then?

You seriously think scum paired themselves together?

And how are you sr obvtown Ank here?

~N

[themilkcartonkid]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

Highly doubt it unless they’re both deep

So then there are 3 pairs with scum, ~38%.

What pairs have the highest chance at being both town to help narrow the field?

Oka/Me
Ank/Clem

Also I think scum may have paired up with some strong town players to protect themselves. i.e

mbaki

/

nancefloor

.

Is it worth losing a good town player for a chance at scum?

I think mechanically it’s a better idea to lynch a pair that’s two PoE players, because even if they both flip town we clear out the PoE more for later. I think this is an especially good idea because we had a D1 scum lynch.

Who do you suggest? Anyway, the fact that both my preferred lynches are off the table based on who they’re paired with, makes me really confident in two of my scumreads: overkill11 and TD.

It’s clearly no accident they were paired with RC/tmck. I think that’s extremely telling. I think scum kept two town pairs together: Taly/JE, me/mbaki and I obvtown read Ank, so no way am I touching Clem today.

And that was the point

[themilkcartonkid]

We lynch a town pair today and pick our coalition today who is conftown based on these pairings?

[Ankamius]

:thinking:

[NanceFloor]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2	Titus's Lynch Thoughts
RadiantCowbells	0verki11	Would lynch here, but if Overkill is town this would be a decent place for scum to put t v t pairing
mbaki	NanceFloor	I'd Poe lynch here but with great reluctance because I am pretty sure mbaki's town.
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish	Best lynch paired with obvious town
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid	Can't lynch obviously
Ankamius	Clemency	I was feeling bettering about Ank but then Clemency is his partner. Ugh. Would deadline it.
Creature	Chemist1422	Best lynch only because I am garbage at reading Creature. Provides little info.
Taly	JohnnyEnglish	Obvtown with a decent lynch. Ugh.
chennisden	Titus	Most likely scum with known town. If I could trust y'all mechanically, I'd self vote but I can't so *shrug*

[NanceFloor]

I mostly just don't understand what approach you're taking with this game that results in those reads Titus

Titus isn’t one of my townreads. I haven’t been impressed with pretty much anything she’s posted.

[mbaki]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2
RadiantCowbells	0verki11
mbaki	NanceFloor
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid
Ankamius	Clemency
Creature	Chemist1422
Taly	JohnnyEnglish
chennisden	Titus

Taly / JE is TvT never touch that
mbaki / NanceFloor is TvT never touch that

leaves

{RC, Overkill}
{Oka, BEF}
{TD, TMCK}
{Ank, Clem}
{Creature, Chem}
{Chen, Titus}

so theoretically, if 2 scum didn't pair themselves, there's about a 50% chance of hitting here. Because scum is losing, they are incentivized to try and catch up, so if I was scum I personally would have paired two scum here and put the third with TMCK - this makes the odds of lynching scum

very

low, since people were more than clear they didn't want to lynch TMCK. Its not like you automatically suspect a slot paired with TMCK either, and it looks good for VCA if we lynch 1 scum and they happened to be paired with their partner for later on, so its a pretty golden strat.

Now, we are never lynching TMCK pairing despite the fact TD has scum equity for being there. I did have TD as null/town before this anyways.

{RC, Overkill}
{Creature, Chem}
{Oka, BEF}
{Chen, Titus}
{Ank, Clem}

If 2 scum are paired, which is smart, we have either a 20% or 40% chance of hitting a pairing with scum, depending on if TD is wolf. Otherwise, its a 40% or 60% depending on if scum is paired with each other.

To be honest, I could kill any of those 5 pairings. Creature has not been playing the game, Chem has not been playing the game, Ank is prob town but hasn't obv towned either, Titus is slight slight town, Chen... idk, he's bad and annoying regardless of alignment, Oka is not a slot I think I can read, BEF is bad and annoying regardless of alignment, and RC / Overkill are my two top picks for scum going into today I think even though I haven't really been following the game nor have I done a probably needed metadive on Overkill.

Those 5 above are ordered from my most->least want to lynch. I do not have a strong preference though, any of those 5 dying is fine. I find myself and Nancefloor a really weird pairing, Taly and JE a really weird pairing. RC and Overkill is the weirdest pairing though that I don't understand for either RC alignment. If he's town, scum are pairing him with a conesnsus scum read to try and get him lynched I guess. Scum can't really afford to lose a person here though, so that necessitates Overkill!town too. If he's scum, then why pair him with a person who wants to get lynched? Maybe the logic is he can loltunnel me but he paired me with a consensus town read so it won't actually go through and he can keep tunnelling me for days to come? It makes sense in the world RC is scum with Overkill, but I am not cocky nor confident enough to think that's likely.

Scum literally cannot afford to get lynched today. Like, at all. 1 or 2 scum, doesn't matter, the mechanics of the setup give us *very* close to full auto if we kill scum here, and the game is just over. So any good scum team would have paired both scum, and that makes it very unlikely we lynch scum today and instead probably kill two town, and that's a big advantage Venge has over this garbage. Yes, @RC's garbage onslaught of me from last day, Venge helps us immensely in a 3p or 5p lylo situation... but we should never get to that point in a setup like this after a day 1 scum kill. Scum's wet dream is waiting for the classic town lylo throw. However, it doesn't really matter if both scum are paired, we are still just trying to lynch scum or future mislynchable slots here.

One crackpot theory I have about these pairings specifically is that scum paired the least likely mislynches together to get them all off the table completely. This is a strategy I myself would do. Pairing good / town read player with LHF / scum player is the strat people keep talking about, but that's dumb. Pairing good player/townie player with LHF player means people don't lynch it, because then they'd only want to lynch half the players in the pairing instead of all of them. JE and Taly are two of my top town reads, and Nancefloor is the other one with myself - you can say I'm not widely town read, but I close to never get lynched and I'm town read besides RC and the bad players. Shrug.

Maybe from a neutral POV, Creature / Chem is a better kill than RC / Overkill. Idk. Because the problem is, if that pairing is TT, we are in a real bad spot - Creature / Chem doesn't really take anything away from the game either way. But RC is very likely wolf. Y ou need to keep in mind that in NK15's normal that ended a month or so ago, RC specifically brought up that I am not good at scum, and in that game RC did tunnel me day 1. I think he's full of shit and scum reads me every game (see: Rapier), but in Rapier he claimed that his read on me was a reaction test. If I believe that, then his read here as a full on scum read with complete confidence is garbage and very scum indicative. RC also hard busses day 1 almost every setup like this, see his comments in post game of NSG's last crapshoot game, and see FOTM (where I locked him as scum like d3 for doing the same shit - granted he was wolfier a bit there). I am not claiming complete confidence he's scum, but there's a lot of indicators, and if he is wolf he's just going to win after I die because that's what RC does. Look at what happened - I was the first vote on Fusco, and asked people to vote him, despite BEF wolfreading me and despite Overkill being a much easier option. Yes, this was RC's read first, and that is a thing to note, but he's saying I'm lock scum after being the FIRST vote on a wolf when my playstyle is heavy distancing but very anti hard-bussing in most lobbies. His whole read is just convoluted and awful. Or, look at him on the last day phase - he kept trying to convince people I was conf scum for giving mechanical information he disagreed with. This ignored my well-detailed explanations completely. His mindset in terms of mechanics isn't wolfy necessarily, the benefit of using our good powers late is definitely there, but early while there are more town voices alive to give input is far stronger. And again, after a d1 scum lynch in this setup, wolves are in a real real bad spot. Keeping the pressure up has a lot to focus on. So no, I'm not sure RC is wolf, but there's a good chance, and if we are TvT then he would've noticed that in my last wall about mechanics rather than doubling his read I think. And Overkill is just a good bet for scum, though I've heard this is his town game from somebody (Ank? please expand).

Creature has not been in his town game, but this is also not necessarily his scum game, and I'm not claiming a Creature read here. But if he's not going to obv town today, and Chem isn't going to play the game, this is a good kill that might hit scum. Oka / BEF are both townie but also bad, I'm actually very conflicted there. My last game with BEF he!town faked a guilty on me!town and I still had to carry his ass to a win - I do not respect his play in mafia. I haven't played wolf him before, and him being town vs Fusco is probably town indicative (though not super), but I also think he's close to +equity for wolves to leave alive so idrc. Oka I had as town early d1 and that shifted so idfk.

Chen is probably just bad town from tone, maybe just bad wolf. I thought Titus' first few posts were townie, though she's posted a lot of whack shit. Ank is townie I think (?) (her wolf game got me last time so I'm not super confident), and Clem is bad town I think (?) so I probably wouldn't kill it. I'm probably mixing up Chen / Chem / Clem, confusing.

[NanceFloor]

Any chance scum puts two of themselves together here?:

Highly doubt it unless they’re both deep

So then there are 3 pairs with scum, ~38%.

What pairs have the highest chance at being both town to help narrow the field?

Oka/Me
Ank/Clem

Also I think scum may have paired up with some strong town players to protect themselves. i.e

mbaki

/

nancefloor

.

Is it worth losing a good town player for a chance at scum?

I think mechanically it’s a better idea to lynch a pair that’s two PoE players, because even if they both flip town we clear out the PoE more for later. I think this is an especially good idea because we had a D1 scum lynch.

Who do you suggest? Anyway, the fact that both my preferred lynches are off the table based on who they’re paired with, makes me really confident in two of my scumreads: overkill11 and TD.

It’s clearly no accident they were paired with RC/tmck. I think that’s extremely telling. I think scum kept two town pairs together: Taly/JE, me/mbaki and I obvtown read Ank, so no way am I touching Clem today.

My initial gut reaction was the TL/tmck pair. But I think chen/Titus is the optimal choice.

JE’s analysis is flawed as I sincerely doubt scums are paired together. Titus’ reads have made absolutely no sense to me, from the moment she replaced in.

[Taly]

Johnny

townreading

mbaki, kittybells, and nancefloor

is currently his sole, temporary saving grace Post-Dance. 2769 Unless my reads are absolute dogshit this game, this doesn't read as a scum readslist with the game at hand, despite how I disagree with a good bit of what the list implies.

Just outing this;

overki11

and

Chennisden

have been my strongest scumreads on a

Fusc

scumflip.

Titus

has always read as a good

Reveal

candidate to me, in the event that we used the power.

Titus/Chenn

is interesting, them being S/S or T/T does not mix well with my reads OR their interactions with each other. S/T sounds most viable.

lol

overki11/kittybells

. i think my comments on this pair hurt more than help, so im going to open my eyes and not my mouth on this one. same thing with

TD/TMCK

.

[mbaki]

This was Boon's town game, so Johnny is town. He would have to do a lot to change my mind. I don't think his play is really wolfy anyways though. Our last wolf game he literally just flaked out page 5.

Titus is not a bad Reveal. I think RC is a better Reveal though, conf town RC should be what a town RC wants - he always complains about people paranoia lynching him.

Also, I want to just say this now: I do think RC needs to die. If he does, before he throws a bitch fit, keep in mind there's a power that lets him give a note from the grave and then we lynch. So, before a LyLo / after we use all the good powers, if RC dies and greens we can always call on him from the grave. He should be happy with this, but ymmv.

I do think its very unlikely we lynch RC and Overkill today though. I'm not insane.

[BrightEyedFish]

My last game with BEF he!town faked a guilty on me!town and I still had to carry his ass to a win - I do not respect his play in mafia. I haven't played wolf him before, and him being town vs Fusco is probably town indicative (though not super), but I also think he's close to +equity for wolves to leave alive so idrc. Oka I had as town early d1 and that shifted so idfk.

I don't remember faking a guilty on you... but since I'm BEF it could be true. All I remember about you from our game together is how you were all about using AtE and how much you hated MS.

[themilkcartonkid]

This was Boon's town game, so Johnny is town. He would have to do a lot to change my mind. I don't think his play is really wolfy anyways though. Our last wolf game he literally just flaked out page 5.

Titus is not a bad Reveal. I think RC is a better Reveal though, conf town RC should be what a town RC wants - he always complains about people paranoia lynching him.

Also, I want to just say this now: I do think RC needs to die. If he does, before he throws a bitch fit, keep in mind there's a power that lets him give a note from the grave and then we lynch. So, before a LyLo / after we use all the good powers, if RC dies and greens we can always call on him from the grave. He should be happy with this, but ymmv.

I do think its very unlikely we lynch RC and Overkill today though. I'm not insane.

Dang this is +town for you...

[NanceFloor]

This was Boon's town game, so Johnny is town. He would have to do a lot to change my mind. I don't think his play is really wolfy anyways though. Our last wolf game he literally just flaked out page 5.

Titus is not a bad Reveal. I think RC is a better Reveal though, conf town RC should be what a town RC wants - he always complains about people paranoia lynching him.

Also, I want to just say this now: I do think RC needs to die. If he does, before he throws a bitch fit, keep in mind there's a power that lets him give a note from the grave and then we lynch. So, before a LyLo / after we use all the good powers, if RC dies and greens we can always call on him from the grave. He should be happy with this, but ymmv.

I do think its very unlikely we lynch RC and Overkill today though. I'm not insane.

I think RC should be the Reveal over Titus. In any case, why does scum!RC pair himself with Overkill11?

[themilkcartonkid]

because scum!RC is a deepwolf and pairs himself with lhf to set up a mislynch on overkill later

[mbaki]

VOTE: Mbaki
Guilty.

BrightEyedFish was lynched. He was a Vanilla Townie.

shoutouts to mbaki: i think he played absolutely amazing to manage to not only not get lynched, but to steer the town to a serviceable direction

oh it's eddie cane that explains why he's good at game

eddie cane

Here is everything relevant from that game.

[themilkcartonkid]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2
RadiantCowbells	0verki11
mbaki	NanceFloor
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid
Ankamius	Clemency
Creature	Chemist1422
Taly	JohnnyEnglish
chennisden	Titus

strong town, always in coalition

possible scum, never in coalition

LHF, fill out coalition, lynch today

These are based purely on pairings, not on reads (except town)

[themilkcartonkid]

This was Boon's town game, so Johnny is town. He would have to do a lot to change my mind. I don't think his play is really wolfy anyways though. Our last wolf game he literally just flaked out page 5.

Titus is not a bad Reveal. I think RC is a better Reveal though, conf town RC should be what a town RC wants - he always complains about people paranoia lynching him.

Also, I want to just say this now: I do think RC needs to die. If he does, before he throws a bitch fit, keep in mind there's a power that lets him give a note from the grave and then we lynch. So, before a LyLo / after we use all the good powers, if RC dies and greens we can always call on him from the grave. He should be happy with this, but ymmv.

I do think its very unlikely we lynch RC and Overkill today though. I'm not insane.

Dang this is +town for you...

except that third paragraph, that is very +scum for you

[mbaki]

Thanks.