Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm confident.

[mbaki]

oh I have an offer for you RC

I'll afk while you coalition twice

you get lynched if you cant make either go through. I wont influence it at all, fully your choice.

deal?

[RadiantCowbells]

i don't get lynched at all regardless of any outcomes.

[mbaki]

you're confident.

[NanceFloor]

That doesn’t really make sense though. Mbaki is probably town and I think this list doubles that down for me as scum would be more likely to pair me with a weak scum player, which mbaki clearly isn’t.

~N

you realize that I can't go after mbaki today because they're paired with you, correct?

I’m happy you can read me correctly here.

Dann, Ank, Taly, Titus. Aside from myself and RC (and a couple edge people), you are the only non-LHF in this lobby. All 4 of you have independently come to the conclusion I'm town. All 4 of you have prior experience of me, and at least 3 of you have played with both of my alignments - I don't think Dann's seen my scum game iirc. Do you not see why its an issue that RC has me as lock scum here? Either I pocketed all 4 of you, or he is very probably wolf. Which of those do you think is more likely?

RC isn’t a wolf. Some players can be read on tone and I think RC is one of them. I don’t know if you and RC are TvT but I feel pretty good about RC being town here. I trust my gutread on him.

~N

[NanceFloor]

hm we are not lynching TD and tmck

JohnnyEnglish feels scummy but taly not

Idk I like Oka BeF lynch

Do you think scum busses after Fucosco lynch because weird pairing to put BEF in, considering scum were hard pushing him?

Iow, only way BEF is scum here, is if scum is bussing him.

[NanceFloor]

Time, you and overkill with clem as a possible bus if you flip town duh

Ank is blatantly obvtown here. But very sure, you’ve got two right.

[OkaPoka]

what does obv town mean

[NanceFloor]

i think there was always this uncertainty not externally but internally that i was actually capable of being as good as (let's say comparable to) people like northsidegal or whoever
and that was driving my town play thus far this year, but now that i've definitively proved to myself that I am... i don't know that any of this really matters to me anymore
maybe it's time to move on.

try video mafia (@ank too)

it's so much better in every way than this forum garbage

Duk3star told me that there’s a lot of yelling. I don’t like yelling. :/

[Creature]

what does obv town mean

Obviously-bald-virgin town

[OkaPoka]

ok question is

does obv town mean obvious for person saying obv town or supposed to be obvious for everyone

[mbaki]

In the least offensive way possible, Nancy, I doubt you have a >rand read rate on RC so your opinion doesnt really matter to me.

It has yelling, yes. But its friendly yelling. It's far far less toxic than forum games.

[RadiantCowbells]

if you subtract meta knowledge about my scum play being good i don't think a single person in this game ever so much as considers my slot as scum.

[NanceFloor]

This is probably the first time I've 100% mindmelded with something you've posted.

But I want to know why you think this. I'd also like people to explain their

Chenn

and

Titus

reads.

Well, it was basically a PoE conclusion for me.

RC/OK -- Could be scum here but I'm not sold on either. Would probably be my 2nd lynch option.
mbaki/nance -- Still 50-50 on mbaki for me. Don't think it's worth losing strong town!nancefloor though.
oka/me -- obviously not wanting to lynch myself, regardless of my oka read, which is null btw.
TD/tmck -- too obvious? too much WIFOM? Would actually be a nice slot to lynch but I don't believe we will net the most info from lynching here.
ank/clem -- Again, two strong players and if either is town we lose an asset. If both are scum we're fucked anyways...
crea/chem -- similar to RC/OK. Is there any good info to gain here atm?
taly/JE -- I'm not feeling Johnny's act but lynching here is also pointless if we want something substantial out of the lynch.

and that leaves chen/titus

I’d love to lynch both Overkill11 and TD but obviously not touching replicker and no way are we sacrificing RC to get Overkill11.

If Titus is town, I pretty much hate her reads here but not having the two most likely obvscum players in her POE is definitely concerning.

[Creature]

if you subtract meta knowledge about my scum play being good i don't think a single person in this game ever so much as considers my slot as scum.

You're paired with scum though.

[mbaki]

if you subtract meta knowledge about my scum play being good i don't think a single person in this game ever so much as considers my slot as scum.

And yet, meta is the single best tool for scumhunting. Good post.

[mbaki]

This is probably the first time I've 100% mindmelded with something you've posted.

But I want to know why you think this. I'd also like people to explain their

Chenn

and

Titus

reads.

Well, it was basically a PoE conclusion for me.

RC/OK -- Could be scum here but I'm not sold on either. Would probably be my 2nd lynch option.
mbaki/nance -- Still 50-50 on mbaki for me. Don't think it's worth losing strong town!nancefloor though.
oka/me -- obviously not wanting to lynch myself, regardless of my oka read, which is null btw.
TD/tmck -- too obvious? too much WIFOM? Would actually be a nice slot to lynch but I don't believe we will net the most info from lynching here.
ank/clem -- Again, two strong players and if either is town we lose an asset. If both are scum we're fucked anyways...
crea/chem -- similar to RC/OK. Is there any good info to gain here atm?
taly/JE -- I'm not feeling Johnny's act but lynching here is also pointless if we want something substantial out of the lynch.

and that leaves chen/titus

I’d love to lynch both Overkill11 and TD but obviously not touching replicker and no way are we sacrificing RC to get Overkill11.

If Titus is town, I pretty much hate her reads here but not having the two most likely obvscum players in her POE is definitely concerning.

The game is not as easy as you seem to think it is.

[RadiantCowbells]

it's a great post.

if you think that i'm scum by meta by all means explain why

[mbaki]

Here are the pairings for the Dance:

Player 1	Player 2
RadiantCowbells	0verki11
mbaki	NanceFloor
OkaPoka	BrightEyedFish
Time Devil	themilkcartonkid
Ankamius	Clemency
Creature	Chemist1422
Taly	JohnnyEnglish
chennisden	Titus

Taly / JE is TvT never touch that
mbaki / NanceFloor is TvT never touch that

leaves

{RC, Overkill}
{Oka, BEF}
{TD, TMCK}
{Ank, Clem}
{Creature, Chem}
{Chen, Titus}

so theoretically, if 2 scum didn't pair themselves, there's about a 50% chance of hitting here. Because scum is losing, they are incentivized to try and catch up, so if I was scum I personally would have paired two scum here and put the third with TMCK - this makes the odds of lynching scum

very

low, since people were more than clear they didn't want to lynch TMCK. Its not like you automatically suspect a slot paired with TMCK either, and it looks good for VCA if we lynch 1 scum and they happened to be paired with their partner for later on, so its a pretty golden strat.

Now, we are never lynching TMCK pairing despite the fact TD has scum equity for being there. I did have TD as null/town before this anyways.

{RC, Overkill}
{Creature, Chem}
{Oka, BEF}
{Chen, Titus}
{Ank, Clem}

If 2 scum are paired, which is smart, we have either a 20% or 40% chance of hitting a pairing with scum, depending on if TD is wolf. Otherwise, its a 40% or 60% depending on if scum is paired with each other.

To be honest, I could kill any of those 5 pairings. Creature has not been playing the game, Chem has not been playing the game, Ank is prob town but hasn't obv towned either, Titus is slight slight town, Chen... idk, he's bad and annoying regardless of alignment, Oka is not a slot I think I can read, BEF is bad and annoying regardless of alignment, and RC / Overkill are my two top picks for scum going into today I think even though I haven't really been following the game nor have I done a probably needed metadive on Overkill.

Those 5 above are ordered from my most->least want to lynch. I do not have a strong preference though, any of those 5 dying is fine. I find myself and Nancefloor a really weird pairing, Taly and JE a really weird pairing. RC and Overkill is the weirdest pairing though that I don't understand for either RC alignment. If he's town, scum are pairing him with a conesnsus scum read to try and get him lynched I guess. Scum can't really afford to lose a person here though, so that necessitates Overkill!town too. If he's scum, then why pair him with a person who wants to get lynched? Maybe the logic is he can loltunnel me but he paired me with a consensus town read so it won't actually go through and he can keep tunnelling me for days to come? It makes sense in the world RC is scum with Overkill, but I am not cocky nor confident enough to think that's likely.

Scum literally cannot afford to get lynched today. Like, at all. 1 or 2 scum, doesn't matter, the mechanics of the setup give us *very* close to full auto if we kill scum here, and the game is just over. So any good scum team would have paired both scum, and that makes it very unlikely we lynch scum today and instead probably kill two town, and that's a big advantage Venge has over this garbage. Yes, @RC's garbage onslaught of me from last day, Venge helps us immensely in a 3p or 5p lylo situation... but we should never get to that point in a setup like this after a day 1 scum kill. Scum's wet dream is waiting for the classic town lylo throw. However, it doesn't really matter if both scum are paired, we are still just trying to lynch scum or future mislynchable slots here.

One crackpot theory I have about these pairings specifically is that scum paired the least likely mislynches together to get them all off the table completely. This is a strategy I myself would do. Pairing good / town read player with LHF / scum player is the strat people keep talking about, but that's dumb. Pairing good player/townie player with LHF player means people don't lynch it, because then they'd only want to lynch half the players in the pairing instead of all of them. JE and Taly are two of my top town reads, and Nancefloor is the other one with myself - you can say I'm not widely town read, but I close to never get lynched and I'm town read besides RC and the bad players. Shrug.

Maybe from a neutral POV, Creature / Chem is a better kill than RC / Overkill. Idk. Because the problem is, if that pairing is TT, we are in a real bad spot - Creature / Chem doesn't really take anything away from the game either way. But RC is very likely wolf. Y ou need to keep in mind that in NK15's normal that ended a month or so ago, RC specifically brought up that I am not good at scum, and in that game RC did tunnel me day 1. I think he's full of shit and scum reads me every game (see: Rapier), but in Rapier he claimed that his read on me was a reaction test. If I believe that, then his read here as a full on scum read with complete confidence is garbage and very scum indicative. RC also hard busses day 1 almost every setup like this, see his comments in post game of NSG's last crapshoot game, and see FOTM (where I locked him as scum like d3 for doing the same shit - granted he was wolfier a bit there). I am not claiming complete confidence he's scum, but there's a lot of indicators, and if he is wolf he's just going to win after I die because that's what RC does. Look at what happened - I was the first vote on Fusco, and asked people to vote him, despite BEF wolfreading me and despite Overkill being a much easier option. Yes, this was RC's read first, and that is a thing to note, but he's saying I'm lock scum after being the FIRST vote on a wolf when my playstyle is heavy distancing but very anti hard-bussing in most lobbies. His whole read is just convoluted and awful. Or, look at him on the last day phase - he kept trying to convince people I was conf scum for giving mechanical information he disagreed with. This ignored my well-detailed explanations completely. His mindset in terms of mechanics isn't wolfy necessarily, the benefit of using our good powers late is definitely there, but early while there are more town voices alive to give input is far stronger. And again, after a d1 scum lynch in this setup, wolves are in a real real bad spot. Keeping the pressure up has a lot to focus on. So no, I'm not sure RC is wolf, but there's a good chance, and if we are TvT then he would've noticed that in my last wall about mechanics rather than doubling his read I think. And Overkill is just a good bet for scum, though I've heard this is his town game from somebody (Ank? please expand).

Creature has not been in his town game, but this is also not necessarily his scum game, and I'm not claiming a Creature read here. But if he's not going to obv town today, and Chem isn't going to play the game, this is a good kill that might hit scum. Oka / BEF are both townie but also bad, I'm actually very conflicted there. My last game with BEF he!town faked a guilty on me!town and I still had to carry his ass to a win - I do not respect his play in mafia. I haven't played wolf him before, and him being town vs Fusco is probably town indicative (though not super), but I also think he's close to +equity for wolves to leave alive so idrc. Oka I had as town early d1 and that shifted so idfk.

Chen is probably just bad town from tone, maybe just bad wolf. I thought Titus' first few posts were townie, though she's posted a lot of whack shit. Ank is townie I think (?) (her wolf game got me last time so I'm not super confident), and Clem is bad town I think (?) so I probably wouldn't kill it. I'm probably mixing up Chen / Chem / Clem, confusing.

or I will repost this because it's all my thoughts and then I'll afk until town RC throws or scum RC wins

be back in two days to prodge enjoy your awful game people

[RadiantCowbells]

why don't you vote chennis/titus with me instead of creature/chemist

[NanceFloor]

Best thing to do is NL then Veto. I get if I get roped but we never should have picked this.

I disagree. It only confirmed my already strong sr on Overkill11 and TD.

I’m still trying to understand how town!you’s reads are this bad. Help me with that. How are Overkill11 and TD not in your POE? Do you think it’s a complete cooincidence that they’re both paired with unlynchable partners?

[mbaki]

because voting with the person who's insisted I'm lock scum and ignored my posts on a pair I'd prefer less anyways is

not

the first thing on my mind?

[NanceFloor]

Nancy bright Johnny scums

So you think scum bussed then? So if BEF is actually scum here, why does scum pair him with Oka? Tell me in what alternative reality this makes even remote sense.

[Creature]

What do you think about Over + Clem being scum?

[NanceFloor]

Scum was hardpushing BEF lynch,

Assumes wrong facts not in evidence.

Who do you think is scum? Why?

Are we even playing the same game?

Overkill11, TD and not sure but how are you tr the slots paired with repicker and RC?