Mini 2074: Madness at Port Arthur (Game Over)

[Irrelephant11]

three people: -comments on arbitrary scumminess of an innocent intro post-
me: -old man shrug meme-

@Clarity Are you town? And, does anything from anyone stick out to you?

No point in answering the first question.

I like the Pretty Cure hydra. Y'all are neat.

you got any impressions of anybody? I'm still reading

All I've got is a slight townlean on the PreCure hydra and that's it

Tbh I'm a bit intimidated by the amount of clearly experienced players in a bigger game than I'm used to, not to mention it's a semi-closed setup. Feels like a lot of the experienced ones are debating mafia theory rather than anything about this game too so I'm kinda just hoping for a brainwave rn.

Clarity has one read: Smile is town. What’s the reasoning?

three people: -comments on arbitrary scumminess of an innocent intro post-
me: -old man shrug meme-

@Clarity Are you town? And, does anything from anyone stick out to you?

No point in answering the first question.

I like the Pretty Cure hydra. Y'all are neat.

I feel like if a new-ish player is a wolf then they would sound a little bit more tense than Clarity here? (yes pocket me harder)
idk her meta but she gains magical girl points from March

- Cure March

Smile’s only analysis of Clarity is in the above post

I feel like if a new-ish player is a wolf then they would sound a little bit more tense than Clarity here? (yes pocket me harder)
idk her meta but she gains magical girl points from March

Yes! I've always wanted magical girl points.

Meh

To elaborate more on Smile townlean which is pretty much the sole read I’m slightly sure about: I feel like their scattered thoughts and reads are more town-indicative because as scum they’d be more likely to collaborate on their posts so that they’re not likely to contradict each other. That they’re just throwing out their individual thoughts without much consideration vibes town to me

This post felt a little coached to me att compared to other Clarity posts but regardless of if that’s true this is the only “real” read Clarity provided D1

I was about to try to make a PoE but I have to go into a meeting

Hot take: fuscezu is scum
idk if that take is hot it's just something I'm feeling in this moment

Kinda seeing this too actually

Shown later to be a fake read, for example

Also four people have commented on my intro post and I'm going to assume scum is at least one of you

There's no other reason I see for the consistent reference to a post that should be completely NAI.

One of these “four people” was Smile

ceejayvinoya

[line]Chara
ClearlyClarity
Fuscezu[/line]

insomnia

[line]Irrelephant11[/line]
Miss Kobayashi Maru
Persivul
RCEnigma
Shiidaji

skitter30

[line]Smile[/line]

tris

never touching strikethrough names d1
should probably lynch within bolded
underlined is shit thrown at the wall scum for post game ego

- March

Never gave enough reason to cross off Clarity here

- Smile
- Chara
- Irrelephant

---

- Fuscezu
- skitter
- CJ

Rest are null. Best I can give you for now

Never gave enough reason to put Smile up high

I am taking control of our vote~~~

VOTE: Fuscezu

I've poked March about the insomnia vote. I don't hate it but I don't think we have time left in the day to get a wagon there tbh. We also talked about tris, and March saw one post that she thought was maybe townie, I disagree about that post being townie but I don't think my scumread there is strong enough to make it worth fighting about. One thing I thought was interesting though was that tris/fuscezu came up, since March pointed out that a lot of her reads are kinda vague except for Fusc. Tris started out with a scumread on Fusc and then maintained a townread. March is kinda ok with that development but I again disagree.

If Fusc flipped scum, I think it would be worth revisiting tris. But for now my bigger problem is with Fusc. I was fine with our vote on Fusc for most of the day and honestly didn't fully understand why March moved us off. Going back to reread that slot now I kinda don't understand how tris sees town there and I feel like fusco has played in a way that reminds me very much of someone like scum!skygazer where he tries to be cool and emphasize his own activity even though he's not doing much. 'im reading' 'im still reading' etc. Also notice a noncommittal read here on tris, which reinforces my thought that tris/fusc could be s/s, with fusc avoiding a read and tris trying for early distancing and then a townread.

Spoiler:

(March didn't want me to mention this but there's also the fact that I think Brown Eyes, when town, has the strongest day 1 reads of people I know, even when she's only paying about 20% attention to the game. Every other time I've played with her I've scumread her incorrectly for lack of presence and while her not doing much doesn't make her conftown, I feel like her reads in this sort of game state are more likely to be stronger than my own, or for that matter, March's. <3 u March)

I've been thinking about skitter's argument on CC, and to be honest CC is a slot that has been very much under the radar for me. Despite having 50+ posts I feel like the slot has had very little presence. On going back through the iso 674 jumps out at me -- while I appreciate the townread, the more important thing to me is skitter scum along with fusc and cj. CJ is null to me but could be scum, fusc I think is scum, and skitter is someone I can see CC being paranoid about as town. So this would not be my first preference for today. That being said, I feel like CC did not push Fuscezu very hard after voting that slot, so there's some risk of that being scum distancing. I'd vote there if I have to to avoid my own mislynch but I'd much prefer Fusc, and if not Fusc then tris.

Bottom line is I think fusc is the best day 1 for us.

-Beauty

Smile, desperate for a lynch beside themselves, towncases Clarity, who arguably would have been a much easier lynch to push than Fuscezu

Then Clarity votes Smile despite the Smile townread being the strongest and longest-held read they had all D1

[Irrelephant11]

You:

i'm also of the opinion that first-day scum lynches can be the death of town. i've talked about this before. the first day is the easiest day to put down good associations with buddies, and negative associations with town.

Me:

125[post] and [post]244.
i'm still keeping an eye on skitter, but i don't think unnecessary paranoia is helpful after our last game.

[Irrelephant11]

Sometimes town just wins real good. No reason to think I’m way off track if I’ve lynched scum and haven’t yet lynched town

[Chara]

so, upon ISOing RC and Smile together: everything sort of depends on Clearly's alignment here. if she's town, i actually have my guess at the remaining scum as skitter/RC. if she's scum i'm not sure.

and insomnia is fairly unlikely scum with Smile's push there, as you said.

[Irrelephant11]

I’ll also note that if Clarity is scum Chara is actually up there as a potential third
But associations with Smile alone aren’t enough for me to want Chara’s lynch yet

[Chara]

You:

i'm also of the opinion that first-day scum lynches can be the death of town. i've talked about this before. the first day is the easiest day to put down good associations with buddies, and negative associations with town.

Me:

125[post] and [post]244.
i'm still keeping an eye on skitter, but i don't think unnecessary paranoia is helpful after our last game.

i'm not sure what your point is here?

[Irrelephant11]

What about RCE’s alignment depends on Clarity’s?

[Irrelephant11]

You:

i'm also of the opinion that first-day scum lynches can be the death of town. i've talked about this before. the first day is the easiest day to put down good associations with buddies, and negative associations with town.

Me:

125[post] and [post]244.
i'm still keeping an eye on skitter, but i don't think unnecessary paranoia is helpful after our last game.

i'm not sure what your point is here?

Sometimes town just wins real good. No reason to think I’m way off track if I’ve lynched scum and haven’t yet lynched town

[Irrelephant11]

I’m never voting in {Persivul, fuscezu, tris, insomnia} unless I’m in 5-way with them or find reason to believe that group has a 3P

[Chara]

Never gave enough reason to put Smile up high

you don't think Clearly would put the only townread she explained fully up high on her readlist?

[Chara]

Sometimes town just wins real good. No reason to think I’m way off track if I’ve lynched scum and haven’t yet lynched town

my skitter scumread isn't paranoia, it's a scumread. paranoia means i think she's still being towny.

and your attitude here is exactly what i was afraid of. lynch one scum and you think you're "winning real good" already? we've only started.

[Chara]

Didn't dive too deep into smiles case on fusco whom I think is town. I remember thinking smile was indirectly deflecting from CC with the vote and even though I think CC is town... It's a believable team.

for some reason i had thought it was more than this. but throwing out this comment is what had me wondering if RC wanted to pivot onto a town CC.
if CC is scum i would be surprised for skitter to also be scum, yes. same with RC, actually.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I have one scum dead and four townreads of high confidence
I’m not just going to assume my townreads are wrong because that has happened to other people other times
So I feel pretty good about where I’m at and the gamestate, yes

I see what you’re saying about skitter. I don’t disagree skitter might be scum. I just think a wagon on Clarity is better at this time. Do you disagree that if {Clarity, skitter} has exactly one scum the higher information wagon is likely to be on Clarity?

[Irrelephant11]

Higher-information potential wagon*

[Irrelephant11]

I thought my/RCE’s slowly developing townreads on each other was pretty town-indicative for him
If Clarity is scum (which I think Smile’s refusal to vote her at EOD suggests) I don’t think skitter has done anything scummy

[Irrelephant11]

The main thing I’m nervous about is a 3P so whoever’s scum should probably find them so that you can have one more day to live

[Chara]

VOTE COUNT

7 of 13 votes are required to lynch.

Smile (3):

insomnia, tris, Chara

Fuscezu (3):

Brown Eyes, ClearlyClarity, Smile

ClearlyClarity (2):

skitter30, Irrelephant11

tris (1):

RCEnigma

RCEnigma (1):

Fuscezu

Irrelephant11 (1):

Flavor Leaf

Flavor Leaf (1):

Persivul

Not Voting (1):

ceejayvinoya

Deadline is in (expired on 2019-05-22 12:00:00)

smile your vote is both bad and survivalistic given plurality and it's making me want to vote you

i agreed with skitter when she said this. Smile didn't even towncase Clearly, they gave some reasons for her to be town and then said it wasn't that strong and could still be scum.
votecount is directly after Smile's Fuscezu vote. notice anything?

[Chara]

I thought my/RCE’s slowly developing townreads on each other was pretty town-indicative for him
If Clarity is scum (which I think Smile’s refusal to vote her at EOD suggests) I don’t think skitter has done anything scummy

Smile's "refusal" to vote CC means very little when the two players (Fuscezu and tris) they stated they wanted over CC are also likely town.

[Chara]

I mean I have one scum dead and four townreads of high confidence
I’m not just going to assume my townreads are wrong because that has happened to other people other times
So I feel pretty good about where I’m at and the gamestate, yes

I see what you’re saying about skitter. I don’t disagree skitter might be scum. I just think a wagon on Clarity is better at this time. Do you disagree that if {Clarity, skitter} has exactly one scum the higher information wagon is likely to be on Clarity?

i don't disagree. but if Clarity flips town then skitter is scum, and you get to tell me i was right. how's that?

[Irrelephant11]

What should I be noticing there’s a lot to notice
Also I disagree, I think it’s very meaningful; I said already and will reiterate that I think Clarity was way more lynchable than Fuscezu, so air they’re both town I wouldn’t expect Smile to intentionally differentiate them and push on Fus

Pedit: I mean I’ll tell you you’re right but I said it too

[Chara]

The main thing I’m nervous about is a 3P so whoever’s scum should probably find them so that you can have one more day to live

why are you nervous about 3p more than scum, anyway?

[Irrelephant11]

Because I think smile spewed a lot of people’s alignments in relationship to theirs
But scum doesn’t know who third party is so my townblock could have third party in it

[Chara]

What should I be noticing there’s a lot to notice
Also I disagree, I think it’s very meaningful; I said already and will reiterate that I think Clarity was way more lynchable than Fuscezu, so air they’re both town I wouldn’t expect Smile to intentionally differentiate them and push on Fus

Pedit: I mean I’ll tell you you’re right but I said it too

but you want to lynch Clarity and i want to lynch skitter. that's the point.

and i feel like you're missing that from Smile's perspective, their slot was already townreading CC, so it would look much worse to pivot onto them than it did to go to Fuscezu. even if it looked bad anyway.

[Irrelephant11]

Good point
Anything else you wanna discuss besides these two slots?
And uh, wanna vote Clarity with me for now? Who knows, maybe a TPR has already settled Clarity and/or Skitter’s alignment. I’m more than willing to push skitter later this gameday

[Chara]

i don't really want to vote someone i don't think is scum, because there's no way she is if i'm right on skitter. and why would you be willing to push skitter later?