Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[Irrelephant11]

semi-busses?

And I just explained the 180, it was a test for Voted, who didn't look for a way to get on the new opposing wagon (though teacher didn't give him as much time as I'd like before calling my vote out, but...)
If Voted his scum, he has massive confidence that a non-teacher wagon will pull through or teacher is his partner. Both feel pretty unlikely (it's rare that a slower gamestate like this one results in two wagons on scum), so I don't think Voted is scum
Ez Pz

pedit: oh interesting, but then why did Voted ignore the wagon on you? Seems like it'd be the answer to his prayers that he could join the wagon his partner is on with the cover of more townies

[Irrelephant11]

I'm not sure I find teacher to be scummy but I don't find him much of anything lately, his questions have started to feel like busywork, and I semi-trust FL's reads (trust because his reads are good, semi because I can't really read him)

[Voted]

1) Agreed, I quite liked the spirit of enquiry there - for reference, yes, this was intentionally a leading question, was trying to gauge if you were going to go along with stuff.
2) regardless of whether you agree, do you think this comes from scum or town?

Any of cinnamon's posts stick out to you?

Nope. Nothing stands out. At least I didin't notice anything.

[Eggs]

You were looking for a reaction from me?

Meh. Couldn't care less really, fake vote. Teacher isn't getting lynched today unless he posts a Mafia thread thread post in this thread by mistake.

No idea what you're trying to achieve but I'd assumed it wouldn't be helped by me sticking my oar in.

[Voted]

Did you really expect me to try to lynch my strongest town read?

[Irrelephant11]

If you’re scum I expect you to take the opportunity to avoid your own lynch, yes @voted
Which is why I’m now thinking you’re town

@eggs I wasn’t expecting anything specific from you, necessarily

Teacher I find your speculation that these two are scum together unrealistic and contradictory to the “don’t pre-flip associate” posts you had a few pages ago. Tell me why I shouldn’t be alarmed

[teacher]

Because I still always do it. I will flag what was pinging me.

[Menalque]

So irrelephant, if you don't like voted for a D1 lynch then who do you like?

I also think focusing too much on if someone is mislynch bait or not isn't helpful? As someone mentioned earlier (I think it was teacher), if we're not sure if he's a mislynch or scum let's just lynch him. That way we know for sure and we get concrete information based on votes.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I’m not just unvoting because i think he’s mislynch bait
He doesn’t show survivalism

I’m really struggling to nail down any strong scumreads
Navneet might be scum and I’d compromise there
Someone sell me on town!cinnamon because their participation in marathons showed me they are skilled as scum

[Menalque]

I don't know if I think nav is scum or if he just forgot the game before anything happened, but either way I'd like to see what his replacement does before voting for that slot.

I'm not reading cinnamon as town so much as I'm reading voted and eggs as scum. But that's something I could maybe be talked into. I was looking at his ISO yesterday and thought it seemed bad from more or less #160. I also think he's been trying to pocket me super hard.

[Irrelephant11]

Do you have any townreads? It’s always helpful to make accurate townreads, making it harder to lynch town
I’m sorta surprised you haven’t wavered in your eggs scumread at this point

[Menalque]

Here's where my head's at right now: I wanna see if bob/bob!replacement and nav!replacement would be willing to get on board the voted wagon. If they're not, I could be talked into voting cinnamon with the understanding that if he flips town then we're lynching voted tomorrow, excepting that something happens in the night that suggests it's a bad lynch.

[Menalque]

I still think that Eggs is scummy: that "anyone wanna talk for a while" seemed like an attempt to derail things to me, and as I'm reading voted as scum it also potentially reads to me as trying to get people away from the wagon while it was at L-1.

[Menalque]

Okay, I guess here's where I'm at with reads if you think it's helpful (I think it will be less so once you read them)

Going from townier to scummier:

irrelephant, teacher

FL

bob

cinnamon, nav, eggs

voted

The thing is that I think that if we lynched cinnamon and he flipped scum then it throws off a lot. So I kinda wanna lynch him for that reason. But if we lynch voted and he flips scum then that'd leave me feeling good about an eggs/nav!slot Lynch D2.

I don't know if y'all want me to explain those reads or not, but I feel like they're fairly self-evident from what I've been saying throughout. I'll try to make time to do it if someone asks though.

[Cinnamon]

I mean I’m not just unvoting because i think he’s mislynch bait
He doesn’t show survivalism

I’m really struggling to nail down any strong scumreads
Navneet might be scum and I’d compromise there
Someone sell me on town!cinnamon because their participation in marathons showed me they are skilled as scum

I haven't really talked about this at all yet, but you've been constantly bringing up the idea that I seem scummy. Is there anything in particular that makes you feel this way? It seems really odd that you've been focusing on me so much with statements like this that aren't talking about what I've been doing in this game that is indicative of scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Menal, there’s scum in one of the SE’s.

[Menalque]

Menal, there’s scum in one of the SE’s.

As it stands I'm not seeing it. I'm listening though. Why?

[Cinnamon]

Menalque, could you explain why you think me townreading you in two posts is 'trying to pocket [you] super hard' whereas Irrelephant (for example) townreading you in really the same number of posts is not?

[Cinnamon]

I struggle to see the logic behind that.

[Cinnamon]

I am also starting to like Eggs less, I previously had a null read on them but their last few posts have seemed somewhat scummy to me.

[Cinnamon]

Irrelephant then Menalque pushed me there for reasons that don't make a large amount of sense to me, which I find pretty suspicious.

[Voted]

Menal, there’s scum in one of the SE’s.

Could you more elaborate?

[Cinnamon]

Brief thoughts from mobile:

I don’t have much faith in tone as a way of reading things and I still think eggs has done the scummiest thing so far objectively. That said, I’m aware that he’s being mostly read as town who made a genuine slip. For now, I’m leaving my vote where it is, but I’ll change if (a) someone does something I think is objectively more scummy or (b) we start getting closer to the deadline and there’s still no appetite for an eggs wagon.

Regarding SEs: I’m encouraged by the fact they’re reading similarly. If there were only two, I’d be a lot more concerned that they were mafia backing each other. In the current situation I feel like the third would have called them.

If we’re not going for eggs then I’d be okay with getting on voted or cinnamon. I honestly don’t see why Bob is being scumread. I’ll try to post something longer tomorrow.

Another question for you Menalque - I notice that here, you state that you were comfortable with the SEs because they were all reading similarly and they had yet to call each other out. In your reads list, you also have all three SEs at the top of your town list. Has recent discussion from them done anything to change your opinion on this?

[Menalque]

Menalque, could you explain why you think me townreading you in two posts is 'trying to pocket [you] super hard' whereas Irrelephant (for example) townreading you in really the same number of posts is not?

Yeah, sure can: irrelephant has townread me in #70, #118, possibly implicitly in #180, #208, #224, #253, #255, #260

However, he downgraded me in #260 and then pushed me in #263 and #335. I particularly liked the question about why I wasn't wavering on my scumread for eggs. I also think his general behaviour reads as town, e.g. the self-vote early on and the vote for teacher later on seemed to be to push the game forward and gather more information.

You on the other hand, townread me in #167, #174, and #209. I think the one that stood out to me was #209 which kinda felt like you were sheeping on the townread or wanted to really stress it because I think I was being fairly broadly townread at that point. Irrelephant's came in the context of agreeing about the voted wagon at the time, but yours was standalone. I'm also a lot less sure about your ISO. Lots of very short 1-2 line posts. I can decide what I think of the content though: as in, is it just efforts being made to look like analysis to make yourself seem town, or is it genuinely analysis but just in small doses.

Either way, I don't think I'm pushing you that hard right now, but I'm open to getting on you because I think lynching you would be one of the best options in terms of overall information, see #338.

[Menalque]

Regarding SEs: I’m encouraged by the fact they’re reading similarly. If there were only two, I’d be a lot more concerned that they were mafia backing each other. In the current situation I feel like the third would have called them.

Another question for you Menalque - I notice that here, you state that you were comfortable with the SEs because they were all reading similarly and they had yet to call each other out. In your reads list, you also have all three SEs at the top of your town list. Has recent discussion from them done anything to change your opinion on this?

Here's the thing: there can only be 2 scum in this game. As of this point, I haven't seen anything from the SEs that makes me feel like they're scummier than the people at the bottom of my reads list. Maybe that's gonna change once we lynch and there's more information. Of the three, I feel like all of them have been advancing the game, most of all irrelephant, teacher too after he got active, and FL to a lesser extent but I do wanna hear about why he thinks one of the other SEs is definitely scum.