Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[Creature]

no

it tells us practically nothing and we miss out on a chance to just instawin

bad

[Creature]

would rather we just debunk Titus' theory so we can go back to normal scumhunting.

[Titus]

would rather we just debunk Titus' theory so we can go back to normal scumhunting.

I am ok with this, but I legit think that it's possible due to the sheer number of people from the first coalition resisting and proposing things that mathematics says are likely to fail. You don't need to think we'll win to join. That's the beauty.

Normal scumhunting would be twice as powerful after this.

[chennisden]

It's obvious we don't have 3 scum in Coal 1

[Titus]

It's obvious we don't have 3 scum in Coal 1

Obvious does not mean confirmed. This is also being rammed down when the whole point PB died was to confirm where scum are.

[chennisden]

The whole point of PB dying is we couldn't muster the energy to not get him killed

[Titus]

The whole point of PB dying is we couldn't muster the energy to not get him killed

Because we knew we needed to confirm scum outside the coalition or win...

[chennisden]

Ankamius was pretty obviously town. PB also was.

[chennisden]

Titus as town I've seen you try to gamesolve without needing mechanics (like that Open multiball we played; you were very obvtown despite people refusing to see that).

I think we really should do that here.

[chennisden]

Alternatively I can see that scum might want to fight this coalition if it truly does win the game.

[NanceFloor]

i really think Titus' plan sucks but I am lacking the fucks to really fight it

and I want this

day

game to be over soon

- dann

[Time Devil]

i really think Titus' plan sucks but I am lacking the fucks to really fight it

and I want this

day

game to be over soon

- dann

well I'm not voting for a coalition that's bound to fail.

That defeats the purpose of the coalition.

-TL

[Time Devil]

I'd vote Titus's coalition only under time pressure.

Splitting the groups is alright but it isn't a winning coalition and even Titus knows that.

-TL

[Time Devil]

VOTE: Succinct, Time Devil, MariaR, chennisden, Titus, RadiantCowbells, NanceFloor

Skygazer isn't townier than NanceFloor.

-TL

[Time Devil]

Might take out Titus though, I think Titus is the most likely deepwolf.

-TL

[BNL]

Vote Count 5.2.5

0verki11, chennisden, MariaR, Moongrass, Succinct, Time Devil, Titus

(4): Moongrass, Titus, Chemist1422, Creature

chennisden, MariaR, NanceFloor, RadiantCowbells, Skygazer, Succinct, Titus

(3): chennisden, NanceFloor, MariaR

Creature, MariaR, NanceFloor, RadiantCowbells, Skygazer, Succinct, Titus

(1): Succinct

chennisden, MariaR, NanceFloor, RadiantCowbells, Succinct, Time Devil, Titus

(1): Time Devil

Not Voting (3): RadiantCowbells, Skygazer, 0verki11

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to select a coalition of 7.

The deadline for choosing a coalition is 2 June 4:30am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-06-02 04:30:00)

Mod notes:
The vote in 5854 is invalid. The members of the proposed coalition must be explicitly listed.

[NanceFloor]

i really think Titus' plan sucks but I am lacking the fucks to really fight it

and I want this

day

game to be over soon

- dann

well I'm not voting for a coalition that's bound to fail.

That defeats the purpose of the coalition.

-TL

I'd vote Titus's coalition only under time pressure.

Splitting the groups is alright but it isn't a winning coalition and even Titus knows that.

-TL

Might take out Titus though, I think Titus is the most likely deepwolf.

-TL

Only way her coalition doesn’t fail is if there really is 3 scum in failed coalition, which is extremely unlikely, so it's waste and there’s probably currently 2 scum sheeping it. If scum are sheeping anything that you have any qualms about, it’s probably wise to steer clear.

I also still don’t understand why she got so defensive when I asked what made her do that 180 on double scum in Chemist/Creature. Neither slot qualifies as deep wolves, so it sounds almost suicidal for them to be paired together if both scum. Moon aggressively whiteknighting practically everything she says, is kind of giving me the willies. I also didn’t like how Moon blamed me for BEF mislynch, when Titus was the one hard pushing that. She kept insisting that there was scum associatives between my slot and BEF’s.

But tonewise, she sounds townie. As for her PB dying argument, PB had no way of knowing that him and Clemency would be killed at the time and how the fact that scum paired CreatureChemist in dance impacted the chances of them both being scum.

I think that no one else is aggressively driving any other plan, which makes her plan all the more likely to go through, because the current gamestate is so apathetic, they will probably sheep the most vocal wagon, which now is the one Titus wants.

If we want to counteract it, we’ll need at least 7 people to agree on a counterwagon to Titus’. That’s the only way that can happen.

[Titus]

Mathematically, my coalition is the most likely to succeed.

[Skygazer]

can u show ur work

[Titus]

can u show ur work

Sure.

We know that the only group that can have three scum in it is a group that has a person from Coalition A.

Therefore, by excluding all members of Coalition A, the maximum amount of scum present is two.

Assuming a random distribution of scum, excluding all of Coalition A is more mathematically likely to succeed as scum can only be rolled twice.

I am candid that no coalition has extremely high odds, but this coalition is the best mathematically and gets us confirmed info preventing scum from paranoia spread.

[Titus]

Titus as town I've seen you try to gamesolve without needing mechanics (like that Open multiball we played; you were very obvtown despite people refusing to see that).

I think we really should do that here.

Thank you, but that open multiball we played, I went off VCA data. That'll happen in a few days, if necessary.

[chennisden]

Titus your wagon is being shared by creature and chemist who are veto leftovers and moongrass

scum is pushing your plan because it helps scum

[Titus]

Titus your wagon is being shared by creature and chemist who are veto leftovers and moongrass

scum is pushing your plan because it helps scum

A) I don't SR Moongrass B) My plan both helps and hinders scum. In the short term, it has high odds of confirming what we suspect.

Confirming what we suspect eliminates a great majority of scumteam AND let's us have a plan going forward. Lynch in A/B. Lynch in the other. 1 of 4, massive clears.

It's something universally true that no scum can stop.

If it was beneficial to scum in the long run, they would have pushed the plan days ago. Fact is by voting this coalition, they lose the paranoia argument and establish a clear path to victory.

That's why I can back off after this vote.

[chennisden]

if it fails moongrass is the first to go.

[chennisden]

mbaki was scummy and moongrass is.