Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t think 2 scum are on Raya either. I think 1 scum is actively staying off, and I think that scum is Teacher. You can see through Teacher’s posts that the Raya lynch is totally fine with him and he hasn’t defended it or pushed it. He’s trying to make sure it goes through while not specifically being a contributor of it.

That’s scum indicative because it looks townie at surface level.

[Flavor Leaf]

If Baezu were scum, I feel her partner would also have joined onto Teacher. She’s sheeping me because she sees me as town, which she usually does regardless if she reads me correctly. As scum, Baezu sheeping me would have changed the game state more. Instead, it kind of halted it.

This indicates Baezu slot as town. Scum does not give me more power in this situation, and the fact that I’m so individualistic thinking against the grain indicates that I’m at least partly right or scum would abuse it.

[Menalque]

Okay I’m still not sold but you’re in my head enough that I don’t want this hammered before I read the ISOs for the lunches you’re pushing.

UNVOTE:

I’m aware of the deadline. I won’t leave it too close before putting a vote back on somewhere.

[Flavor Leaf]

Baezu-Teacher-Eggs are likely at most 1 scum as well, because else Raya would have likely gone through by now, so there isn’t a pair within that.

[Flavor Leaf]

Here’s the thing FL: I can imagine a world where you’re right about this. My issue is that I think you’re overthinking it and it’s really not that complicated. I think first scum is someone who looks actively scummy (raya/voted) and that the other will be discernible from VC analysis.

I read this as can’t earlier. Oops.

[Irrelephant11]

Baezu-Teacher-Eggs are likely at most 1 scum as well, because else Raya would have likely gone through by now, so there isn’t a pair within that.

I don’t think any lynch would go through pre-claim in the newbie queue

[Menalque]

As scum, Baezu sheeping me would have changed the game state more. Instead, it kind of halted it.

Scum does not give me more power in this situation, and the fact that I’m so individualistic thinking against the grain indicates that I’m at least partly right or scum would abuse it.

Explain the first part to me more, how does Baezu sheeping you lead to more of a change in the game state if she’s scum? How did her sheeping you halt it?

Second part, explain to me how scum abuse it if you’re not right?

This whole post was a bit unclear to me.

[Menalque]

Irrelephant, talk to me about FL here. Is this making sense to you? If he’s wrong, why?

[Flavor Leaf]

As scum, Baezu sheeping me would have changed the game state more. Instead, it kind of halted it.

Scum does not give me more power in this situation, and the fact that I’m so individualistic thinking against the grain indicates that I’m at least partly right or scum would abuse it.

Explain the first part to me more, how does Baezu sheeping you lead to more of a change in the game state if she’s scum? How did her sheeping you halt it?

Second part, explain to me how scum abuse it if you’re not right?

This whole post was a bit unclear to me.

Baezu and I both on Teacher as town, why would scum ever not push it if Teacher is town? They’d rather have a Raya lynch over teacher? One that would incriminate them much harder after a green flip?

If Baezu is scum going on TownTeacher, what’s the point in that?

Baezu-Raya scum team I guess could counteract that. Idk. If I’m super wrong, why is scum not taking advantage of me being wrong. I’d take the blunt of the damage for it.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m leaning Teacher-Irrelephant

[Irrelephant11]

Look at how Irrelephant’s been speaking. He’s controlling the game state. Discrediting me, but not pushing me. He’s actively making sure I don’t get moment7m.

In contrast towards you, you are actually trying to figure out my thoughts, and attempting to work with me.

If you look into the future with a hypothetical green Raya flip, Irrelephant also stands out hard. He’s also toyed with the idea of Voted, which sets up Voted to be lynched after Raya flips green.

If Irrelephant is town, Cinnamon probably takes the spot, because they’ve more or less been doing the same thing, but they’ve been less powertown projecting.

I agree my voice is ringing loud. I’m not sure I’m right. I’m having a hard time seeing where you’re coming from, is all. I don’t see a reason to defend raya in isolation, and your thoughts regarding teacher (while an entirely reasonable scumcase) feel predicated on the idea that your ideas being unpopular mean they’re necessarily right. That’s not always how Mafia works

[Irrelephant11]

As scum, Baezu sheeping me would have changed the game state more. Instead, it kind of halted it.

Scum does not give me more power in this situation, and the fact that I’m so individualistic thinking against the grain indicates that I’m at least partly right or scum would abuse it.

Explain the first part to me more, how does Baezu sheeping you lead to more of a change in the game state if she’s scum? How did her sheeping you halt it?

Second part, explain to me how scum abuse it if you’re not right?

This whole post was a bit unclear to me.

Baezu and I both on Teacher as town, why would scum ever not push it if Teacher is town? They’d rather have a Raya lynch over teacher? One that would incriminate them much harder after a green flip?

If Baezu is scum going on TownTeacher, what’s the point in that?

Baezu-Raya scum team I guess could counteract that. Idk. If I’m super wrong, why is scum not taking advantage of me being wrong. I’d take the blunt of the damage for it.

Hey now I see inside your head
This post makes sense to me

[Irrelephant11]

I’m leaning Teacher-Irrelephant

Teacher-cinnamon
Baezu-raya
You-Voted
Mayyybe Voted-raya?

Are the teams that make sense to me right now
Doesn’t have to be one of those three but they’re where my head is at
Baezu-raya is the least towny team and raya is the least towny slot

[Irrelephant11]

I guess a Baezu-Voted team could be getting away with letting me and FL argue but Voted was on nav/raya before me

[Irrelephant11]

FL if you think there’s scum on the Raya wagon why do you think it’s not Voted?

He’s a mislynch. Scum have been setting a gamestate up where he becomes a compromise wagon.

You’re talking about Voted here? I *very* don’t see it. Who’s setting up Voted as a compromise? I’m not voting Voted today

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m leaning Teacher-Irrelephant

Teacher-cinnamon
Baezu-raya
You-Voted
Mayyybe Voted-raya?

Are the teams that make sense to me right now
Doesn’t have to be one of those three but they’re where my head is at
Baezu-raya is the least towny team and raya is the least towny slot

Me-Voted, why do I fight Raya lynch so hard then instead of lynching and then pushing a 1 off 1 on mentality, which would give me ample fire for both you and menalque?

This looks fabricated.

[Flavor Leaf]

FL if you think there’s scum on the Raya wagon why do you think it’s not Voted?

He’s a mislynch. Scum have been setting a gamestate up where he becomes a compromise wagon.

You’re talking about Voted here? I *very* don’t see it. Who’s setting up Voted as a compromise? I’m not voting Voted today

It’s a between the lines kind of thing. By town reading other slots, it creates a gamestate of a Least Valuable Player kind of deal.

And I think it’s pretty visible that if Raya wagon doesn’t go through and teacher doesn’t get picked up, Voted gaining momentum is what would do it.

[Irrelephant11]

I’m leaning Teacher-Irrelephant

Teacher-cinnamon
Baezu-raya
You-Voted
Mayyybe Voted-raya?

Are the teams that make sense to me right now
Doesn’t have to be one of those three but they’re where my head is at
Baezu-raya is the least towny team and raya is the least towny slot

Me-Voted, why do I fight Raya lynch so hard then instead of lynching and then pushing a 1 off 1 on mentality, which would give me ample fire for both you and menalque?

This looks fabricated.

You-Voted was a recent thought based on your treatment of Voted
I agree it’s unlikely upon further thought
The top two are the ones I see as most likely but I also recognize I rarely call out the full team D1
My main point being raya has at least one realistic scum partner here and I don’t see many realistic partners for teacher aside from cinnamon

[Irrelephant11]

I guess maybe I would have more suspicion of teacher if I didn’t know I was town? But I also think it’s silly to think I’m scum with him and we just eternally nulltown each other with no thought to associatives

[Flavor Leaf]

You’re right; if you are town, Teacher-Cinnamon are most likely.

[Flavor Leaf]

Irrelephant-Baezu has some equity

[Eggs]

I'm wondering if I'll understand all of this better in the morning.

I'm thinking probably not. Will try though.

[Voted]

Understanding at least part would, nevertheless, be helpful.

[Irrelephant11]

[*]Cinnamon -- I Love the early game question to elephant re nav. While I have some questions about the reads (e.g., I dont see Flavor as trying to do anything, much less "look towny), I think that difference is more town-indicative of Cinammon trying to find something and analyze it. I really do wish they would pay less attention to SEs - I find it it odd they havent mentioned Eggs, other than to call him apathetic, which seems way off. Town-lean

I do remember thinking town-lean was a weird way to summarize this

[Irrelephant11]

The more I read of Flavor's posts, the less scummy he seems. His thought process through his posts makes a lot of sense to me. At the moment, he's moved more to a weak town read for me. On the other hand, I don't see the same thing from Irrelephant. Starting with when he suggested a team of Bob/myself, there's been small inconsistencies in his logic (also see 138 where he forgot an earlier read he made on bob). This could just be a sign of not having full attention to this game, but I see it as more of him trying to push without putting much thought behind it. I don't like that. I wish teacher would speak more so I could get a better read from him, at the moment I don't have a read on them.

I don't see you as super scummy right now as my read is not that strong, which is why I didn't mention who I specifically thought would be mafia. I'm leaning towards you but I would like to see more contribution from teacher before I really push that. I think it would be really easy as mafia to act like teacher is doing now.

Here's where I'm at right now - in the event that Raya is town, what Flavor is saying makes a ton of sense to me. This Raya wagon would be perfect for scum to jump on because Raya made themselves look so suspicious and I would be looking at a team of something like Irrelephant/teacher or Voted/teacher. This also agrees with my earlier gut read that something isn't quite right with all of the SEs.

Maybe I’m confibiasing but this is starting to feel like the team
And if FL is town his early instincts are usually better than mine
If FL is scum I guess his partner is, like, raya maybe?
FL I’ll vote whoever of teacher/cinnamon you want me to vote to show I’m not their partner. For now I’ll assume you want teacher since that’s who you’re voting
VOTE: teacher

Anyone who’s confused, what are you confused about?