Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[teacher]

[quote="In post 665, Pine"

]Hello folks,

I'm in for Raya at dear Ausuka's request.[/quote]
Second time for the slot.

[teacher]

Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass.

What made Cinnamon obvious lynchbait in this game, really at any point? Theyve never been a serious wagon, so that feels like a stretch.

Since when have you known Irrelephant to be overeager as scum? Again, seems like a read you would not have made with meta knowledge.

[Cinnamon]

I think Flavor is the type of player that I'm going to have an extremely difficult time reading without any information on him like voting patterns. That's why I've called him a weak town read because he does really seem like he's doing things that are good for the town but at the same time I think he's a strong player that could absolutely pull this off as mafia.

[Irrelephant11]

Never lynch outside of me/Pine/Flavor Leaf/Cinnamon until scum flips

Why is Baezu not on this list?

I was feeling like the numbers were there to rush towards a lynch and that I might be an option
I wanted to express that if I got lynched it was because an influential scum was among {FL, Pine, Cinn}, without having the time to say more. Once a scum flipped in that group, their most likely partner may/may not be within the group, so I was not saying “lynch here because it has both scum”

I don’t have tons of time here either, but the summary of what I have to say here is I feel very confident Pine-slot is scum

[Cinnamon]

teacher, in the event that the Pine slot is town who do you think is the most scummy?

[Irrelephant11]

I also would like to apologize to cinnamon who I am currently townreading much more strongly than I was before; I think I was too excited by the idea of catching out scum!me (I won my first newbie game as scum) that I ignored some very town indicative moments for you

Your revelation that your scumread of me was a test for the replacement was extremely clever if scum - it untunneled me from you

I’m not certain you’re town but I am pretty confident Pine is scum and also pretty confident you’re not his partner

[Irrelephant11]

And also pretty confident your town tbh

[teacher]

OK, so I've read back through. Here's what I will say:

First, I feel like the last 300 posts has just split up town. I attribute alot of that to Flavor's push on both Elephant and me -- it was gamechanging, a very different but logical take that forced many slots to react. It kicked Elephant out of what had been almost a mayor slot of leading the game, and forced many slots to reexamine their previous townleans. I also shared, at an emotional level, Elephant's reaction. It was a perplexing push to counter because it was so different than my take on the game (my readslist was essentially inverted to his) while also making sense on a surface level.

Second, I feel decently confident that Elephant is town. I have followed his play and his gambits all game, and think they are town advancing, More to the point, however, I have shared his mindset and vibes as well. We are approaching the game in a similar way, with similar reads and reactions. I know that reads does not equal alignment, but I do think reactions do.

Third, that does not mean I think Flavor is scum. I cant read him, and do not want him lynched at all. I can certainly see scum motivation for this play -- breaking up town, casting suspicion on SEs who are generally decent town players. But I can also see a hell of a lot of town motivation -- a logical read of the gamestate that generates quite a bit of informative reactions. I really do want Flavor to respond to Menalque's questions on his approach that I expanded upon in 722

Fourth, as the first point suggests, I think the main mission for the rest of the day has to be rebuilding a townblock. I would LOVE if people would get out of their scum!tunnels and started to try to actively find, bond, and form consensus with those who they think are town, and questioning others (even if not their desired lynch) for more information to analyze after flips. Here, for me, I town Menalque, Elephant, Eggs, and Cinnamon. I lean Voted that way, and am null on Flavor. I want Pine to eat rope, and lean scum on Baezu as well. I am still waiting for Baezu to answer 591. 592, and 595

Finally, I find the lack of attention given to Bob/Baezu's slot AND THE WAGONS perplexing. I just addressed Bob/Baezu. The wagon point is that almost all wagons this game have consisted of the same players:

• Navneet 65: Voted. Irrelephant11, Menalque, Eggs
  
• Voted 300: Irrelephant11, Menalque, Cinnamon, teacher [Eggs was here before me, but switched to me on what he said was a reaction test)
  
• Raya 407 and 604: Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and (Menalque/teacher, depending on when)
  
• Current raya (no VC): Irrelephant, Voted, Eggs, Cinnamon

I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him, and definitely confirms scum in [Cinnamon/Elephant/me]. That is incredibly helpful to me because Im town on both of them right now, and would be forced to reexamine. It would also vault Flavor way up in my reads, both for pushing so hard and also for his theory being right. On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.

[teacher]

teacher, in the event that the Pine slot is town who do you think is the most scummy?

Was writing the long post, but I think that answered this. A green flip basically puts me on Elephant/you, since I'll lose the game to Menalque.

[teacher]

Red flip = speedlynch Flavor.

Greenflip = carefully reexamine board positioning on both elephant and cinnamon. Dont have inclinations between them, and not going to case til I get the info.

[Cinnamon]

Teacher, your post suggests that regardless of the alignment of Raya it clears Voted. Was this intentional on your part?

[Cinnamon]

I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him... ...On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.

[teacher]

Intent -appr 24 hours

Pine, I appreciate the sub in and the read through effort. You cant be allowed to make it to D3, and I think you are the best lynch for the day for the reasons given. If Im off on you, Id love if youd continue the readthrough. But as I said on the last page, I think you should claim at some point tomorrow, and Im now making that point hard with the intent.

Pedit: It was not intentional, in the sense that I did not notice it. It is a genuine reaction to the wagon information, however, so Voted can join Menalque in my will lose at Lylo if scum pile.

[teacher]

Playing out complex hypotheticals on Voted per 735:

IF Raya green, and IF Elephant is the red between Cinnamon and Elephant, then there is a slight chance Voted isnt clear because Elephant was bussing and the first one off. But thats two conditionals which I consider pretty unlikely atm.

[Cinnamon]

Playing out complex hypotheticals on Voted per 735:

IF Raya green, and IF Elephant is the red between Cinnamon and Elephant, then there is a slight chance Voted isnt clear because Elephant was bussing and the first one off. But thats two conditionals which I consider pretty unlikely atm.

I also see this as a possibility, but again yeah that would be based off of unlikely circumstances. The fact that you also saw this world makes me feel like you're less scummy than I previously thought.

[Cinnamon]

I also would like to apologize to cinnamon who I am currently townreading much more strongly than I was before; I think I was too excited by the idea of catching out scum!me (I won my first newbie game as scum) that I ignored some very town indicative moments for you

Your revelation that your scumread of me was a test for the replacement was extremely clever if scum - it untunneled me from you

I’m not certain you’re town but I am pretty confident Pine is scum and also pretty confident you’re not his partner

I was certainly getting this vibe earlier from you and I think this is a perfectly reasonable explanation if you are town. However, I do still have a slight scum lean on you since you were putting this out there so hard that you might have done it as mafia to use this exact argument now.

[teacher]

Im getting kinda conf-biased into a Flavor-Raya team. 59 and 71 start to look interesting as heck given the game developments, as do all of this repetition:

Raya “could” flip scum, but I think it’s very opportunistic, and even if Raya is scum here, the partner is bussing.

here is the chance that Raya is scum and I’m correct on the path I’m pushing as well,

Even if one of them are scum, they’re probably scum with Raya

As I said before, Im not interested in Flavor TODAY -- he is providing novel takes and forcing rethinking. Indeed, I think a green flip really vaults him into my heavy towns. But there are definitely associatives for a redflip tomorrow.

[Pine]

Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass.

What made Cinnamon obvious lynchbait in this game, really at any point? Theyve never been a serious wagon, so that feels like a stretch.

Since when have you known Irrelephant to be overeager as scum? Again, seems like a read you would not have made with meta knowledge.

Sorry, probably a confusion of terms. That was a hasty stream of consciousness. A better term probably would be "low-hanging fruit." Cinnamon is (no offense) a green enough player that MLing them down the line would be pretty simple. It isn't that he's done anything wrong or suspicious yet, but that it would be easy to do so at will.

[teacher]

Playing out complex hypotheticals on Voted per 735:

IF Raya green, and IF Elephant is the red between Cinnamon and Elephant, then there is a slight chance Voted isnt clear because Elephant was bussing and the first one off. But thats two conditionals which I consider pretty unlikely atm.

I also see this as a possibility, but again yeah that would be based off of unlikely circumstances. The fact that you also saw this world makes me feel like you're less scummy than I previously thought.

Just FYI, even if the first two conditions are indeed met, I still would likely lean voted town based on wagon analysis. In this circumstance, it is their repeat presence on wagons with Elephant throughout the day. I have found it to be more likely 1-on, 1-off. That Voted has so often voted with Elephant (and you, and me) makes him a less likely pairing for any of us. Not conclusive, but further thinking on it and why I thought a green flip would still be a likely clear.

[Flavor Leaf]

Teacher is potential scum with Raya slot.

Bussing and trying to tie me there is possible, but I don’t think Raya slot flips red, but that’s just a theory.

A boon theory.

[teacher]

Flavor, why were were you willing to hammer Raya (see 598)? Also, can you further explain your all-SE team theory in light of the wagon analysis (see 722)?

[Flavor Leaf]

What can I say that I haven’t said already. I’m actually starting to lean just 1 of you guys again.

VOTE: teacher

Like, it’s you.

You know I know it’s you. You just gotta put on the show because other people aren’t convinced yet.

I’ll convince them eventually, but probably not day 1.

[Flavor Leaf]

So you best kill me now.

[teacher]

You cant defend your earlier all-se theory in light of the voting pattern, so you ignore the question and switch to a one-SE theory.

But you never scumcased me/us. You just said it was PoE and inability to get a wagon going. The problem is that you did get a wagon going. On me. It was (you, Baezu, eggs, irrelephant, Cinnamon indicating a willingness to compromise).

The game state is drastically different than it was when you began this read. Step into the thunderdome -- explain what I have done that is scummy, and who Im partnered with. So far youve suggested elephant, but retreated, and cinnamon (to whom the same cojoint VCA question that youve refused to answer would apply).

Case me. Im here for it. Then answer 598, which you ignored again.

[Flavor Leaf]

Well, I no longer think that it’s an all SE team, so why should I defend it?