Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)


Forum rules
User avatar
Eggs
Eggs
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Eggs
Goon
Goon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 27, 2019

Post Post #775 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:23 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 773, teacher wrote:
In post 770, Eggs wrote:But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers.
This is error. Flat discount doesn’t make sense when 78% of slots are town. Town replaceouts should be discounted more heavily than scum. But like I said I will do the actual coding and share dataset and results tonight.
Yes it does. Have divided flakes by players. If 30% of players don't pick up pm then numbers become 0.3 and 0.26. still basically the same and within variance.

Actual analysis would be very interesting.
User avatar
Eggs
Eggs
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Eggs
Goon
Goon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 27, 2019

Post Post #776 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:34 am

Post by Eggs »

True point on Raya's post. That was the low point for the slot.

I don't see teacher arguing like this as scum.

Alright. Given day position and to be fair teacher is right about lack of enlightenment if bob flips green VOTE: pine

THIS IS L-1 AGAIN
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #777 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:05 am

Post by teacher »

Intent -14 hours again
.
Pine should claim.
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #778 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:49 am

Post by teacher »

So newbs that have posted in thread have been replaced a total of 43 times across 1900-1930 (note that I am excluding 1923 from the data set spoilered below). Of these replacements, 25 have been town, 18 have been scum. So a posting!newb replacement is 58% likely to come from town, and 42% likely to come from scum. To me thats a fair reason for a mechanical scumread, but somewhat less weight should be given it than I previously had.

Spoiler: data
Limited to Newb slots that posted in the game and then were replaced. No investigation was done to check whether replacement was due to flake or request, nor was data controlled for time of flake - D1, D2, etc.

1900 - one posting newb replacement : town
1901 - two posting newb replacements: scum
1902 - five, three scum two town (double scum)
1903 - one - scum
1904 - one - town
1905 - two - towns
1906 - none
1907 - one town
1908 - two towns
1909 - none
1910 - three - two town (double) one scum
1911 - two town
1912 - two one town one scum
1913 – two one town one scum
1914 – none
1915 – none
1916 – two – one town one scum
1917 – one town
1918 – none
1919 – one – one town
1920 – one - town
1921 – one - scum
1922 – one - town
1923 – NOT COUNTING GAME – NO POSTING REPLACEMENTS PRIOR TO SCUM CLAIM AND RULES BREAK
1924 – one town (D2)
1925 – Three, all scum, one double
1926 – Two one town one scum
1927 – One town
1928 – Four – three scum one town (scum double)
1929 – none
1930 – one town
User avatar
Eggs
Eggs
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Eggs
Goon
Goon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 27, 2019

Post Post #779 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Eggs »

Interesting, so town players are more likely to replace out before posting. Weird. Will look later in the week when I have time.
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #780 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:14 am

Post by teacher »

Yea. Another way to cut the data is, as you note, by slots. Over 1900-1930 (again excluding 1923), there were 176 newbie slots. 135 town and 41 scum.

Of these slots, 24 town!posting!newb slots needed replacement. (twenty five players, but 24 slots). 24 slots divided by 135 opportunities = 18% chance.

16 Scum!posting!newb slots needed replacement (18 players, 16 slots). 16 slots divided by 41 opportunities = 39% chance.

Yea, Im continuing to use this as a scumtell.

@Pine, the data is now out and publicly available. You want to justify saying a flake is NAI now?
User avatar
Pine
Pine
In Your Head
User avatar
User avatar
Pine
In Your Head
In Your Head
Posts: 16763
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Upstate New York

Post Post #781 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:22 am

Post by Pine »

Of course I do. You’re still using a really small sample size, over a relatively brief period, and it contrasts with conventional wisdom. Further, your numbers are hardly conclusive. 18% vs 39% is not hugely significant. It is, at very best, a weak and qualified suggestion which will often hit Town. And again, I feel your insistence on separating did-not-pick-up-role-PM from posted-a-few-times-and-flaked skews the data.

Finally, I’m looking at a role PM which contradicts your conclusion, so fuck you :)
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #782 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:27 am

Post by teacher »

But thats just it. Conventional is wisdom is posting flake is scummy. Elephant said it this game. Ive said it most games. Ive been in games when Skitter and Loop have said it. I havent seen a flake=NAI argument before, and certainly dont view it as the prevailing wisdom.

Double the chance is significant, in a statistics sense.

On the role PM fair enough. Youve got intent on you and havent given a claim. Is there a reason for that?
User avatar
Pine
Pine
In Your Head
User avatar
User avatar
Pine
In Your Head
In Your Head
Posts: 16763
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Upstate New York

Post Post #783 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:28 am

Post by Pine »

Okay, my lunch break is really limited, so let me cut to the chase. I’m still only about half way through the thread, but I think Baezu is the most optimal lynch. Irrelephant and I are both valuable players if Town, and I’ve got a lot more I can contribute before my (likely inevitable) mislynch.

In contrast, Baezu is unlikely to have a lot of further positive insight. Sorry, but it’s true. She’s a combination lurker/sketchy slot, and has she’s suspicion like water off a duck. Practically everyone has expressed it to some degree, but there’s no action there.

Personally, I think scum is two of {Irrelephant, teacher, Baezu}, but probably not Irrelephant/teacher. That last caveat is mostly gut.

VOTE: Baezu

This is the appropriate compromise. Survivors can litigate the rest D2
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
User avatar
Pine
Pine
In Your Head
User avatar
User avatar
Pine
In Your Head
In Your Head
Posts: 16763
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Upstate New York

Post Post #784 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:29 am

Post by Pine »

Claims are pretty bullshit in an Open, especially D1, especially without massclaim. I’m going to claim VT and you lynch me, or I claim a PR and you find a justification to do it anyway.

FWIW I’m a VT, because you won’t shut the fuck up about it.
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #785 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:33 am

Post by teacher »

Thank you for responding. No, I wouldnt have lynched you for a PR claim, that sorts itself.

Yes, I do think youre the optimal lynch as a VT claim versus running someone else up, because I think you provide really helpful associative data to guide various night actions and it keeps another potential PR concealed. But I will let the board and wagon react.

Now that we have a claim I think there is time to let it play out (and let town!you catchup and provide a will if the consensus is to carry through), so Im going to pull my intent back to a couple hours before deadline rather than 24.
User avatar
Ausuka
Ausuka
Any
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Ausuka
Any
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7924
Joined: July 21, 2017
Pronoun: Any
Location: Coventry, UK

Post Post #786 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:57 am

Post by Ausuka »

Image

Votecount 1.12
Pine (4) - Irrelephant11, Voted, Cinnamon, Eggs
teacher (3) - Baezu, Flavor Leaf, Menalque
Baezu (1) - Pine

Not Voting (1) - teacher

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2019-06-06 15:31:32).
User avatar
Menalque
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 22775
Joined: May 15, 2019
Pronoun: he/him
Location: Madrid, Spain

Post Post #787 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:11 am

Post by Menalque »

I’m finding something confusing about your play here, Pine. Baezu isn’t happening. The wagons at this point are you or teacher. If you are VT then it’s in your interest as a town player to do whatever you can to avoid being lynched. But instead of putting your vote on the other existing wagon, leaving the possibility that someone might switch from your wagon to that one, you start a vanity. Why?
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #788 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:23 am

Post by teacher »

Menalque, you mind if I butt in?
User avatar
Menalque
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 22775
Joined: May 15, 2019
Pronoun: he/him
Location: Madrid, Spain

Post Post #789 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:02 am

Post by Menalque »

By that do you mean that you’d like to explain Pine’s behaviour there?
User avatar
Menalque
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Menalque
he/him
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 22775
Joined: May 15, 2019
Pronoun: he/him
Location: Madrid, Spain

Post Post #790 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:03 am

Post by Menalque »

If so, go right ahead.
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #791 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:28 am

Post by Voted »

Spoiler:
Assume SEs replaces 10% time and newbies 40%. Town and maf are equivally likely to replace. Statistically in 100 games:
20 SE + 280 newbie replaces=300 replacements.

300/36=8.3 games have 2 mafia SEs (1.66 maf replaces)
1800/36=50 games have 1 newbie and 1 SE as replacement (20+5=25 maf replaces)
1500/36=41.7 games have 2 newbie mafia (33.36 maf replaces)
In total out of 300 replaces there will be 60 maf replaces

Town: 700 players, 240 replaces: replaces in 34%
Scum: 200 placers, 60 replaces: replaces in 30%


Please, distinguish newbies and SEs.
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #792 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:29 am

Post by Voted »

In post 732, teacher wrote:OK, so I've read back through. Here's what I will say:

First, I feel like the last 300 posts has just split up town. I attribute alot of that to Flavor's push on both Elephant and me -- it was gamechanging, a very different but logical take that forced many slots to react. It kicked Elephant out of what had been almost a mayor slot of leading the game, and forced many slots to reexamine their previous townleans. I also shared, at an emotional level, Elephant's reaction. It was a perplexing push to counter because it was so different than my take on the game (my readslist was essentially inverted to his) while also making sense on a surface level.

Second, I feel decently confident that Elephant is town. I have followed his play and his gambits all game, and think they are town advancing, More to the point, however, I have shared his mindset and vibes as well. We are approaching the game in a similar way, with similar reads and reactions. I know that reads does not equal alignment, but I do think reactions do.

Third, that does not mean I think Flavor is scum. I cant read him, and do not want him lynched at all. I can certainly see scum motivation for this play -- breaking up town, casting suspicion on SEs who are generally decent town players. But I can also see a hell of a lot of town motivation -- a logical read of the gamestate that generates quite a bit of informative reactions. I really do want Flavor to respond to Menalque's questions on his approach that I expanded upon in

Fourth, as the first point suggests, I think the main mission for the rest of the day has to be rebuilding a townblock. I would LOVE if people would get out of their scum!tunnels and started to try to actively find, bond, and form consensus with those who they think are town, and questioning others (even if not their desired lynch) for more information to analyze after flips. Here, for me, I town Menalque, Elephant, Eggs, and Cinnamon. I lean Voted that way, and am null on Flavor. I want Pine to eat rope, and lean scum on Baezu as well. I am still waiting for Baezu to answer . , and

Finally, I find the lack of attention given to Bob/Baezu's slot AND THE WAGONS perplexing. I just addressed Bob/Baezu. The wagon point is that almost all wagons this game have consisted of the same players:
  • Navneet : Voted. Irrelephant11, Menalque, Eggs
  • Voted : Irrelephant11, Menalque, Cinnamon, teacher [Eggs was here before me, but switched to me on what he said was a reaction test)
  • Raya and : Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and (Menalque/teacher, depending on when)
  • Current raya (no VC): Irrelephant, Voted, Eggs, Cinnamon
I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him, and definitely confirms scum in [Cinnamon/Elephant/me]. That is incredibly helpful to me because Im town on both of them right now, and would be forced to reexamine. It would also vault Flavor way up in my reads, both for pushing so hard and also for his theory being right. On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.
OK. So you town
lean
me.
If Raya is scum -> it makes me town
If Raya is town -> it makes me town

Am I missing samething? Why only lean?
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #793 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:29 am

Post by Voted »

In post 702, Pine wrote:Fuck pretty sure that's hammer. I'll try to get summaries of my reads up before Ausuka locks the thread. I'm only about a third of the way through, nothing solid yet, except that one big scumvibe from Irrelephant. Pretty sure I'm being quicklynched here to silence me.
I started to think that you were town when you didn't fall in pressure trap. But this smells like a scum gambit.
User avatar
teacher
teacher
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
teacher
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6184
Joined: April 9, 2018
Location: DC-area

Post Post #794 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:34 am

Post by teacher »

Voted is that actual data? What source? Im missing something.

@menalque, re Pine: He doesnt think he can get me through -- the sides are fairly well defined, and its unlikely Eggs/Voted/Elephant/Cinnamon will suddenly switch from him to me given their recent comments and gamestate. Hes proposing a compromise lynch many slots have indicated openness to. I dont think its necessarily contradictory. That said, I still think he's the best lynch.

PEDIT: Only lean because I wrote that based on my reads before writing up the wagon analysis. I dont see much active hunting from you, but based on wagonomics (for reasons already explained), I would now town you over (Elephant/Cinnamon), whom I town but will revisit if there is a green flip.
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #795 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:38 am

Post by Voted »

It's fake. I wanted to show that when you don't distinguish SEs and newbies (in condition newbies are more/ less likely to get replaced than SEs) you will have more inaccurate data.
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #796 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:41 am

Post by Voted »

In post 795, Voted wrote:It's fake. I wanted to show that when you don't distinguish SEs and newbies (in condition newbies are more/ less likely to get replaced than SEs) you have more inaccurate data.
When I though that I had mastered conditionals...
User avatar
Eggs
Eggs
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Eggs
Goon
Goon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 27, 2019

Post Post #797 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:46 am

Post by Eggs »

Voted analysis should be 30 SE and 240 newb replacements in para 1, total 270. Then 60/200 = 210/700 = 30%
User avatar
Voted
Voted
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Voted
Goon
Goon
Posts: 976
Joined: March 27, 2019
Location: just hanging around

Post Post #798 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:57 am

Post by Voted »

Yeah, should have striked me that the difference is too small.
User avatar
Irrelephant11
Irrelephant11
He
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Irrelephant11
He
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6268
Joined: April 9, 2018
Pronoun: He
Location: My dog's eyes

Post Post #799 (ISO) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:21 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Teacher, Voted, and Menalque are now so town I am 99% sure I will not vote them this game
I am confident enough that cinnamon is town that I am 99% sure I will not vote cinnamon before a lylo situation with the above players
I have no other analysis to add before Pine flips (someone flip Pine soon please)
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
Locked