Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[Creature]

I have a bad feeling about that.

[Creature]

Godmid doesn't look any survivalistic.

I think him and I are just mislynched lined up.

[mcqueen]

Deadline has been extended until Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 10:00 pm EST, which is in (expired on 2019-06-12 21:00:00).

Votecount 5.1

Creature (1)

- popsofctown

popsofctown (1)

- Creature

Not Voting (3) - Godmid, Emperor flippyNips, Iconeum

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Godmid doesn't look any survivalistic.

I think him and I are just mislynched lined up.

Who do you think scum is then? Cos icon as a actual clear.
The person that replaced RC tried to get a wagon started on Egix from what saw before pop came in soooo

[Emperor flippyNips]

Loooks like creature first

[Emperor flippyNips]

I want to hear from ICon tho

[Emperor flippyNips]

Well i see you’re pushing pops so what’s your case?

[Creature]

Loooks like creature first

If I'm going down today pops is going down tomorrow.

[Creature]

The person that replaced RC tried to get a wagon started on Egix from what saw before pop came in soooo

but was quick to hop on Dr Worm.

[Creature]

Plenty of times I tried to push a wagon on Egix, but instead it was diverted elsewhere.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Egix town

Nips town
pops town
Me town

leaves
Eyes, Shoshin, Titus, Clemency, Iconeum

You were throwing shade his way all up until this point. What was going thru your mind right here?
Also. You threw shade & had voted him once up until this point.

[Creature]

Egix town

Nips town
pops town
Me town

leaves
Eyes, Shoshin, Titus, Clemency, Iconeum

You were throwing shade his way all up until this point. What was going thru your mind right here?
Also. You threw shade & had voted him once up until this point.

Oh right, that was when Egix claimed cop.

I was pushing him way before that.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Hmmm I’m not feeling a creature lynch rn.
Why do you say popS?

[Godmid]

Ugh, I'm starting to get cold feet a bit on Pops being more likely town then Creature.

[popsofctown]

It's hard to get affirmative scum cases in a gamestate with 2 confirmed town and 3 players that all win if the other two are lynched from each of those players POVs. Scumreads on other players are going to sound concocted because they are concocted, you're working from the answer that was in the back of the book and writing the steps in until they work out to that answer. And the process is identical for both scum and town so watching it carried out doesn't get you any farther either.

It'd be better to restate my concern I had with Creature's slot -before- we got in this state, which is that I found Creature's read progression on Shoshin's slot very implausible, the somehow 100% confidence she is town at all phases, which would pretty rarely happen for a townie, but especially that he somehow flipped on that massive confidence in Shoshin's twilight. The flip seemed like something !scum Creature thought he would have to post.

Godmid's been playing a good game today but all his predecessors were terri-terrible, so, I'm sure there are criticism of those slots to review.

Ultimately with 2 confirmed towns and 3 antagonistic slots it's best if you and Iconeum form your own reads and pick the two to die and win or lose the game for it. And it would definitely be best if you waited until Iconeum was fully back from V/LA to do that, it seems awful for the game to hinge on input from a guy who is popping in saying, "X got investigated right or did he, what are we doing guys?" He's not quite back. I'd really like an extension, because technically Iconeum should have been replaced and this game had a 18 day night in it anyway or something ridiculous like that so its tempo is shot to hell. I mean I don't know if McQueen is even here, there's that intermittent issue too.

[Emperor flippyNips]

It's hard to get affirmative scum cases in a gamestate with 2 confirmed town and 3 players that all win if the other two are lynched from each of those players POVs. Scumreads on other players are going to sound concocted because they are concocted, you're working from the answer that was in the back of the book and writing the steps in until they work out to that answer. And the process is identical for both scum and town so watching it carried out doesn't get you any farther either.

This feels like youre trying to cause WIFOM

It'd be better to restate my concern I had with Creature's slot -before- we got in this state, which is that I found Creature's read progression on Shoshin's slot very implausible, the somehow 100% confidence she is town at all phases, which would pretty rarely happen for a townie, but especially that he somehow flipped on that massive confidence in Shoshin's twilight. The flip seemed like something !scum Creature thought he would have to post.

I went thru his ISO and it doesn’t seem like that. Can you quote where he’s like that?

Godmid's been playing a good game today but all his predecessors were terri-terrible, so, I'm sure there are criticism of those slots to review.

He has indeed.

Ultimately with 2 confirmed towns and 3 antagonistic slots it's best if you and Iconeum form your own reads and pick the two to die and win or lose the game for it. And it would definitely be best if you waited until Iconeum was fully back from V/LA to do that, it seems awful for the game to hinge on input from a guy who is popping in saying, "X got investigated right or did he, what are we doing guys?" He's not quite back. I'd really like an extension, because technically Iconeum should have been replaced and this game had a 18 day night in it anyway or something ridiculous like that so its tempo is shot to hell. I mean I don't know if McQueen is even here, there's that intermittent issue too.

yeah i’ve Been trying to wait for icon but have been growing impatient. This game has gone on for far too long.

[popsofctown]

Votecount 1.1

Pretentious (3)

- RadiantCowbells, Emperor flippyNips, Skellen

Shoshin (2)

- CultOfAthena, Egix96

Dr Worm (1)

- Eyes without a face

RadiantCowbells (1)

- Shoshin

TheWizard (1)

- Baezu

Not Voting (4) - Creature, Dr Worm, Miss Kobayashi Maru, TheWizard

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

The deadline is on Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:15 pm EST, which is in (expired on 2019-04-21 18:15:00).

VOTE: Shoshin

Shitty wagons so far

RC, Shoshin and I are never getting lynched. Who else should join that list?

Shoshin (4) - brassherald, Dr Worm, Egix96, Fumuki

Bad wagon, mate

D1 he agrees Shoshin is scummy for fluffposting, but he doesn't actually join Buki's wagon for it.
D2 he just starts chirping that Shoshin is town, which is the same position Buki takes that day, but as the result of a meta dive and an analysis. But he provides little of his own justification for the transition. He never passes up an opportunity to tell me in this thread that he's played with Shoshin before, so he didn't learn anything D2 he didn't know D1, unlike Buki he put more time into metaing Shoshin D2 to weaken some of the points against her D1 play.

Omitted here is a D2 post saying that Shoshin's readslist his similar to his. Which is a valid town-indicative thing but weak for the confidence level he puts on the read, liking her logic would be stronger. He doesn't offer much more.

[Godmid]

If Ico ends up getting replaced and scum isn't successfully lynched today, D6 is going to be an absolute shitshow.

[popsofctown]

I didn't see that we already got an extension
But not by much.

[Godmid]

Yup, I see it. I don't have much time left to take a firm position, so I guess I'm going to have to spend more time on this tonight.

[Godmid]

@Pops:

So to go over why I thought RC was likely town, the core reason is that RC seemed to be heavily encouraging the cop onto either check himself or Egix D1 and I did not think that it was likely that if he was mafia, he would be actively attempting to guide the cop towards a red check, especially since the third mafia member was hard lurking and he was pushing for this before Baezu did her soft claim. A cop with a red check D2 with both doctors still alive would have likely lead to a very dicey situation.

You obviously have a pro-town bias towards RC's actions, but do you think this by itself is a solid line of reasoning towards a townread on your slot, or do you think that there are any potential pitfalls in it, even if the conclusion ends up being correct?

[popsofctown]

Asking for a cop clear on Egix is something scumRC would ruthlessly and immediately do if he thought it was necessary, I hear the guy has a 5d chess scumgame so causing a player who had played a pretty weak game to get removed that way wouldn't be weird.

Asking for a selfcop clear seems like a valid reason to hesitate to scumread my slot though. Even if RC is willing to make sacrifice-bunt plays I think he'd hold off until later in the game to do them, because having only one day to scumsculpt the day is not enough to help his teammates. Especially with a teammate or two already not doing great.

[Godmid]

Even though replacing into a game this late and with this many posts is a new experience for me, I don't think I've ever been quite this uncertain and right now I'm getting completely paralyzed by indecision. From my perspective, I would have thought scum!Creature makes more sense then scum!Pops. As I explained, the cop check positioning from RC isn't something that I thought made a lot of sense for mafia. Additionally, I found some of the posts by Egix directed towards Creature as strange and more like SvS then SvT (he was kind of shading the slot with some of his posts, but then made no serious effort to actually start a wagon).

Having said that, Shoshin clearly thought that Egix + RC was a completely viable scum team even after the cop claim positioning, so she was clearly not buying into the line of logic. She created a 4-player PoE earlier in the game which had both Egix and Titus in it and also contained RC. She consistently had RC down as a suspect alongside the revealed mafia and seemed to be townleaning Creature quite heavily pretty much the entire post-D1 game. As such, I'm becoming more and more hesitant to go against her reads seeing how accurate they have been so far.

In short, I am very conflicted right now and I'm sorry that I couldn't be more helpful. I will be on again at least a few hours prior to EoD.

[popsofctown]

2 hours and 20 minutes to deadline

[Creature]

It's fucking annoying because there's literally onl four slots playing.