Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Kagami]

VOTE: LLD

[Kagami]

L-1

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 3.1

Lady Lambdadelta [3] - Something_Smart, cyanjet, Kagami

Not Voting [3]

- hitogoroshi, implosion, Lady Lambdadelta

With 6 alive it takes 4 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-07-05 21:00:00)

[Kagami]

-____________________-

[Kagami]

Ok, I am now actually reading the thread since no one has much to say.

I see xyzzy's sin was that he voted for scum. Good times.

[Kagami]

Opening comments are so silly.

When there is only one town gun, the first thing you do is sort out which players are most likely to choose gun, because those players are far more likely to be scum than town a posteriori.

LLD really shouldn't have made it past day 1. You think she'd have gone for a low chance of dodging a night kill over being able to kill someone?

[hitogoroshi]

Alright, I can see why this game feels so stall-y.

The lynch today is LLD, and that's not even a matter of opinion or something. There's necessarily scum in {LLD, s_s, and cyan}, so there's no reason s_s or cyan would move their vote unless they suddenly decide the other is scum.

S_s and cyan are probably both town, and I'm ok with losing if they are.

I don't mind hashing out the rest tomorrow if there's going to be a bit more energy following the scumflip. The only thing that isn't really supporting hito-scum here is that implosion makes a lot more sense as a NK than either pops or ceph.

I mean if you're town and LLD is scum you probably don't make it to tomorrow, so let's hash it out now. Even if from your point of view LLD is lock-scum, and from hers it's you, I still need to be able to read you two and watching y'all on the secondary hunt is the best way to do it. Like, what happened to turn Cyan from easily the best lynch to a strong enough townie that you're okay losing to? What was the reason why Pine's TR on S_S was scummy?

oh, speaking of Cyan - still curious why you cast the second vote so early. the certainty of "I am comfortable with the game ending for certain scumteam configurations" seems at odds with your stated uncertainty. What I missing there, Cyan?

from my end -

If LLD is mafia, I think the LLD/implo interactions are never buddy, just a little too much low grade snark in their back and forth (480, 485) for me to find it's credible. conversely, 552 is the kind of high grade feud that I do think LLD could fake on a partner, though I don't know if s_s would naked vote bus here. It seems out of character for him off my meta, but then naked voting seems out of his wheelhouse in general, and I guess you're less anxious about a naked vote if you're bussing and know it'll redflip? Cyan is kind of the same boat, where LLD -> Cyan could certaintly be buddies (she basically just mentions him when I ask her to), but the question is how likely Cyan buses scumpartner LLD here - I think a Cyan + anyone scumteam just wants Cyan to be the hammer keeper, right? Kagami bussing is uhh...well, if you think LLD is going down hard tomorrow it makes sense, but if you're LLD/Kagami you could have given LLD a lot better odds with different NKs, right? And I just don't see why Kagami buries LLD so instantly vs just waiting a little bit to see how things pan out.

If Kagami is mafia, I think Cyan is a weird buddy because actually waiting out that Pine claim makes Cyan decently like to be D2s lynch? I mean Pops/Ceph never vote him but you can still probably cobble together a majority, and it's hard to imagine who else would get got. s_s <-> Haschel is very much not-buddy so I don't think s_s would be a partner,

especially

436. Actually from my meta-fever-dream on s_s I think I'm gonna say lock not-buddies on this one, I can't imagine any universe where s_s bodies his friend like this and I'll take the L without remorse if he did. Kagami/LLD is covered above, so it's...implo? But if it's Kagami/implo, implo is just gonna show up and take us out of our misery. so uhh, I'm not really sure it can be Kagami! I guess if he was dayvigged right now, the Cyan logic is the most specious in that maybe Kagami's plan was actually just to let deadline roll up and then go on Pine anyway, not actually let the cc come to completion. I mean with Cyan's V/LA that was pretty much the ordained end result anyway, and now that I'm musing out loud about it it is weird that Kagami thinks we could have gotten an extension (I don't think we could have after yesterday's shutdown) and didn't ask for it

[hitogoroshi]

To be honest, s_s not wanting to explain his "why" on LLD gives me the willies a bit, but his partner is never Kagami so idk what's left. I do generally agree with LLD that it would be weird for your and your scum partner to vote instantly and together in lylo, and if it's implo/s_s we're in the same boat of "implosion will mercy kill this cursed bloodline whenever he gets around to checking thread again". so it's this weirdo thing where the only really sensible partner is him doing a bus. Maybe I gotta get back on the meta train at least long enough to see what it looks like when he's actually lynching scum, as both scum and town, but who knows how much work I'm signing up to do to see that

[hitogoroshi]

I guess I should use more gradated language because when I say "implo/LLD is never buddy" I mean something like "it seems decently unlikely they would do this kind of low-grade sniping at each other when they were on a scumteam", whereas when I say "s_s/Kagami" is never buddy I mean it like "I cannot conceive of a world where s_s brings up those greenflips as an attack on his scumbuddy that he's not even following up on". LLD/implo would not Rock My God Damn World or anything but s_s/Kagami really would.

[hitogoroshi]

wait a minute Kagami if you thought players picked gun/rose before alignment why in the world would you think that anyone would ever pick rose instead of gun.

[Kagami]

I mean if you're town and LLD is scum you probably don't make it to tomorrow, so let's hash it out now.

I'm about to head to bed, but pretending that there's a world where LLD is not scum is pretty silly at this point.

Given the positions players have taken, I think it's not terribly unlikely I survive. I have some thoughts from a reread, but those are mostly fluffy and something I'd weigh over flips and setup.

My opinions on cyan and s_s changed with the introduction of new evidence. The suggestion that cyan was a good lynch was under the belief that mafia were reasonably likely not to be Guns.

So far you've done little to address the night kills. Ceph can vaguely be written off as a universal town-read, but why does pops die there?

[Kagami]

wait a minute Kagami if you thought players picked gun/rose before alignment why in the world would you think that anyone would ever pick rose instead of gun.

Because most players end up being town and would pick their pro-town choice, I suppose? I don't think 8 townies picking rose is a likely outcome a priori either, but why would you care about an prior when you start with the outcome?

[hitogoroshi]

My opinions on cyan and s_s changed with the introduction of new evidence. The suggestion that cyan was a good lynch was under the belief that mafia were reasonably likely not to be Guns.

What new evidence on s_s? And how does the gun/rose prior changing make Cyan more likely town? I mean I'm seeing the tip of the Stuffberg I wanna see so gimme more please friend. Think of how much better you'll look in relation to LLD!

So far you've done little to address the night kills. Ceph can vaguely be written off as a universal town-read, but why does pops die there?

I mean, I think the nightkills make a lot of sense as Kagami-scum trying to pull the exact shit you're pulling. Because if you're Kagami-scum trying to quickly end the day on the argument "the people who voted for Pine without waiting for cc are guaranteed scum", you probably don't want to try to use that argument to sway the two

other

town voters who voted for Pine without waiting for a cc.

I guess LLD-scum always kills pops over hito because LLD knows I will be more sympathetic than pops will, having mind-melded at the end of the day there. s_s scum probably does too because Pops as a lot more hot and bothered on s_S than I was. Cyan is weird because obviously prima facie Cyan doesn't kill their two most vocal defenders and is much happier killing me, the Cyan skeptic, but 479 really gives the impression that Cyan is a very night-focused player (and I mean, they clearly cares dick bupkis about dayplay so it kind of wins by default), so they're also a player I 100% could believe is purposefully killing their top supporters.

Because most players end up being town and would pick their pro-town choice, I suppose? I don't think 8 townies picking rose is a likely outcome a priori either, but why would you care about an prior when you start with the outcome?

I'm trying to get in your headspace about this post:

I think it's bizarre that LLD didn't choose N1 Gun.

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

[implosion]

I'm leaving my job this week and taking a break so I'll certainly have time and probably focus but I'm a bit disheveled right now.

I think the amount of info people have given for reads is enough and it's maybe a bad idea to be too specific at this juncture? That is to say I'm probably going to hammer LLD because the game seems generally not sensible if she's town at this point (for one, I don't think the way Kagami is talking about the LLD lynch is at all likely to be scum who is trying to secure a game-winning mislynch in this situation), and I'm not sure how useful it is to strongly give reads/analysis now as opposed to tomorrow.

My opinions have shifted a bit and I've found some interesting things but I don't think it's useful to talk about what bc I want to carry the stronger opinions I have to tomorrow if I'm alive without the baggage of having been kept alive after saying them, and I don't feel solid enough to want to try to convince other people of anything atm. I can if people think it'd be useful for sorting me or others but would rather tomorrow.

hito, if you think any of the possible non-LLD scumteams are viable enough to think about, now's the time to explain why.

[hitogoroshi]

I am about to go to bed, but: while s_s/cyan is reasonably unlikely, "scum would never vote together" is not a strict guarantee because s_s was first and maybe Cyan is just running it down, so I don't think you can hard clear on that alone. Kagami has weird associations with other potential scumbuddies but Kagami/Cyan I don't think is impossible tier like Kagami/s_s is - the main strike against it is "Kagami doesn't defuse Pine when it would just kill Cyan instead", and it's quite possible that Kagami was instead thinking "since Cyan was V/LA, I know they're posting last, and Haschel left instructions in the PT N1 to counterclaim town gun after no one else does".

More importantly, pretend that the moderator had PM'd you a red check on LLD. Wouldn't that make you MORE encouraged to sniff out peoples reactions before ending day when you had the knowledge that red flip is certain and you know that exactly one other player in the game has that knowledge, and they're mafia? I mean think about what a buddy has to do here. One option is to explicate exactly why they think LLD scum - and currently s_s/Cyan are both drafting on Pine's death throes without adding anything of their own - and then fake hunt for buddies, which has the chance of revealing "correct wagon for a fake reason, because this is a bus and I didn't think I was gonna have to sell it." (i.e, someone implicates an LLD based on stupid logic that never should have led them to LLD-scum.) OR, the other scum has to go through the effort of analyzing things from both perspectives - and having to do a bunch of work that will evaporate in the wind of the flip is one of the most reliable razors that divides townies and scummies. I think Kagami posting has already revealed stuff, and their answers will reveal more; and I think that content out of s_s and Cyan being pre-flip is ridiculously more useful than post-flip. "Being certain about a flip before it happens" is not at all in the wheelhouse of either s_s OR Cyan, right? So if one of them was faking it and one had a legit reason, don't you think you'd be able to tell which was which by making them speculate on the gamestate while they theoretically SHOULDN'T "know"?

I guess what I'm saying is that even if you're not at all convinced on my potential alternative scumteams and think LLD is lock scum, there's a lot of value in pretending it's an option and making people post in that world, so you should just say you think there's a chance they're possible whether you do or not :')

[implosion]

my eyes are kind of glazing over reading that post but

I guess what I'm saying is that even if you're not at all convinced on my potential alternative scumteams and think LLD is lock scum, there's a lot of value in pretending it's an option and making people post in that world, so you should just say you think there's a chance they're possible whether you do or not :')

Really don't think this is worth the +apathy of stalling the game for days with a wagon sitting at L-1 if she's scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Sorry I've been busy with a new job offer and stuff.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also Apathy, Implosion?

It's MyLo. There's no apathy to create if I flip town my dude.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Are the scum somehow like, slow rolling me because they're afraid they'll shoot a rose or somehting?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hito and Implo there are two people voting me right this moment who have said nothing about anything as a result.

What makes you think that behaviour is town? What's the odds BOTH of them are town and then what's the odds they do that to me as scum together?

It doens't exist. I don't have a good scum pairing from either of your perspectives. I'm not scum with Kagami Implo Cyan or S_S, and then you have to wonder if Hito and I do the theatre yesterday instead of Hito just doing the deed and killing Kagami?

Like... This is so clearly the scum win stroke. I don't know what to do because one of S_S and Cyan is town and we need to convince them to flip to fix this.

Cause even if we go to night, I have serious doubts mafia will choose to make a kill if they have only one, and if they somehow picked a night 3 vig, we'd lose on the spot.

So we can't even no-lynch effectively.

So we need to get Cyan and S_S talking. There's no reason not to use the 5 days you have to make them talk, worst case from your perspective is it forces them if I'm scum to interact and show their oclours yeah?

So for now, stop assuming I'm the defacto lynch, I'm not, this is MYLO ffs.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like this is a strict loss condition on my death.

You want to know why I didn't take a gun this game? I expected everyone would be trigger happy and I wanted to increase the town win-rate.

Who the fuck shoots a town LLD expecting a rose to be there? No one.

Turned out, didn't matter.

Also I was a night 1 rose, so there's possible outs where I was shot night 1. Or do you really believe that there was only one scum kill night one and scum didn't take any N1 vigs?/

Like what's the odds on that.

This doesn't add up, you know it doesn't add up, and lynching me because Piine played scummy and got lynched for it is just bad play by any townie, and the scum are capitalizing.

[Kagami]

s_s and cyan are town, there is no point throwing shade in that direction.

LLD doesn't request to be bussed by either of them.

[Kagami]

Oo, mastin gave me my title back.

[hitogoroshi]

Really don't think this is worth the +apathy of stalling the game for days with a wagon sitting at L-1 if she's scum.

I mean, it's only apathy if you're being apathetic about it! I have decided to put on my carry pants because I'd be really annoying losing like this and I am certainty not apathetic. Kagami's posting. You could post. LLD is...well kind of posting but not the kind of posting I actually want.

You could say "apathy" in the sense that, it feels subjectively like we'll spend a long time twiddling our thumbs if we're waiting for s_s and Cyan to justify their votes on LLD. And I mean, yeah, I also have that impression. But seeing as they are the first two votes on the LLD wagon, this strikes me as a !!!bad reason!!!! to push forward the LLD wagon without knowing anything about their POV. I mean, if s_s/Cyan is the team, and s_s overnight says "okay, we're going after LLD", and then Cyan does it by immediately following S_S instead of waiting for hammer or anything, so they're now the first two scum on the wagon - this is exactly what it looks like, right? Just heads down, hiding from thread, hoping to god that no one cares enough to ask them anything about the votes they cast at the very start of fucking LYLO? And if one of them is bussing, and the other isn't - how on earth do you expect to catch them

tomorrow

, when the one who was busing doesn't have any need to pretend that they don't know for sure it's flipping red, and can dismissive casing with "well, I was clearly right"?

Like... This is so clearly the scum win stroke. I don't know what to do because one of S_S and Cyan is town and we need to convince them to flip to fix this.

I mean, I am automatically the most sympathetic person to arguments where you're town, since I'm one of the two not voting you and we mind-melded on Pine. But like I said, this is the kind of posting I value very lowly because I absolutely know LLD-scum can make it too. Is there truly

zero

chance of s_s and Cyan being scum together? And if so,

which one

is the buddy, and which one isn't? I know that LLD-scum is waiting to hyper-jump on whatever person makes a post they can misinterpret first, and would be loath to close off an option on one or the other before she has to. LLD-town would consider D1/D2 when evaluating, and could start doing so now. That's why I want you to do the kind of work that's harder for LLD-scum to do than LLD-town.

s_s and cyan are town, there is no point throwing shade in that direction.

LLD doesn't request to be bussed by either of them.

I feel like you have some mental image of LLD as a bloodthirsty, ego-maniacal demon who always takes vigs and never lets herself be bussed by perceived lessers and etc. But I mean, LLD is first and foremost someone who just doesn't like losing mafia games. If LLD thinks she's going down, and doesn't think we'd get her partner tomorrow, sure she requests to be bussed.

I also find it unnerving you answered some of my questions but kind of elided over the ones that I think will have the most telling answers, so I will repost them in a big obvious way:

What new evidence on s_s? And how does the gun/rose prior changing make Cyan more likely town?

I think it's bizarre that LLD didn't choose N1 Gun.

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Zero chance implies I'm infallible Hito, and I'm not, but I admit that I don't exactly understand the purpose of your question. You want me to argue for something I don't remotely believe to be true, even though there's possibility? Sure.

S_S and Cyan could in theory be scum together, but that would require that they both opted out on the ability to sway the town in any direction, and this isn't a "they did it because they weren't being suspected" S_S was on my scum list, I voted S_S day 1 and if things had swapped around day 1 or 2 they could have easily died on a dime and not been able to stop it.

It's a risky strategy if true, but certainly one that would have worked given Pine's play and claim and Xyzzy's answers and pushes. The question is if they have enough foresight to know that's gonna happen. I have my doubts. One of them being coached to lurk? Sure. Both of them agreeing there's no need to take hold and guide the town wrongly? Even today they're both lurking which makes them both stand out. If one was active lurking and pushing me and the other wasn't they'd be less obvious. There would be more coordination, I would think.

It's hard to imagine them playing scum together against this town and being this discordant in their play together. It feels.... off. You can argue all you like that I didn't complete your task as requested but I'm not wasting any further energy on this topic. From my view point, looking at votes and methods and interactions it's just not there Hito. Under 5 percent chance, under 1 percent chance? I'm pretty confident.

Of the two, I think Cyan is the one who is paired with someone else. S_S blank voting me today feels like Town committing to an action, he voted first, before Cyan, without a word, and confidently, and has said nothing else all day. That is a terrible look, and one I think a confident townie who just wants to do the job would do (see: CES' playstyle) vs. a concerned scum player with a partner calling their shots.

Which, by the way, is how Cyan's vote reads. Plan is to vote me today, probably told to look natural when doing it, let someone else lead if possible, he sees S_S and votes me and writes what are essentially empty words that feign justification that he didn't need to give to have that justification. It was entirely performative.

I think the team is almost always Cyan/Kagami. You and Implo not hammernig here either means one of you is chicken shit and scared of a night 3 rose which is laughable both of you would happily take your licks in that scenario. Or you're both scum/town together. And if you were both scum together, again, see: Chicken shit.

So you're both town.

And S_S+Cyan doesn't work.

So there's your team.

This is exactly like a game I played like 3-4 years ago against an MoI Sleepykrew ??? team where I was fooled the entire game forever and then I woke up on dya 3 and 180'd on everything, named the whole scumteam and was lynched 4-3 because one townie didn't believe, and we lost. It's a shame, and probably my fault for being so gung ho about the rest but frankly there's not much else to be done.

I need to convince S_S... or Cyan, I guess if I'm somehow wrong about Cyan being scum which I doubt I am, but just speaking to S_S and S_S being scum makes our win chance zero sooooooooooooooooo

Like, at this point I need you two to either get on board or lynch me.

Because if you're on board and you believe I'm town, then sorting my alignment and doing this nonsense is not gonna save the town. So like, take your time and sort me or whatever but make a fucking choice on me while we still have time to try and fix this with our last townie, seeing as we need all the votes today to win.

Or just lynch me if you will never come to see me as town. That's your call. I can't stop it, but please don't make me spend 72 hours begging for you and others to see the light and then just hammer me anyways. That's literal actual soulcrushing levels of agony.