Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[chennisden]

found it

google

mafia game expected value

should be by erlin yao.

[RadiantCowbells]

I can't start arguing for changes without first establishing that they're necessary

[Ether]

I've seen the square root thing before, but it doesn't seem to make any sense in practice.

Even assuming that towns will do better than random isn't a reliable thing. Like, the newbie setup used to have a vanilla subsetup back in the F11 days, and the win rates there were just exactly what the EV would predict. Towns do much better than random in drawn-out Nightless games, but a lot of other mafia types MIGHT ACTUALLY BE just random bullsh--

Oh, hi, Raybells! Congratulations on your 75% town win rate!

[chennisden]

alright so lets try this

i actually think the ev isnt hard to find.

lets just pretend that the game keeps going after mafia all dies. this is okay because we define winning as:

when theres 3 people and the last guy gets lynched. there are TWO PEOPLE left. if BOTH OF THEM ARE TOWN, TOWN WINS

[chennisden]

ill talk about this tmrw need to sleep.

[Auro]

Are you saying that problem is equivalent to something like, "Pick two random from 11+4 and find the probability of both being town"? That would be wrong. I haven't seen any easy reduction yet.

[Something_Smart]

You should start a new thread for it, actually, since it doesn't really relate to this game.

I don't really feel like attempting to follow the math in that paper, but I can tell you I just simulated a million 13:4 mountainous games and town won 15% of them. There is no way that the EV is anywhere near 50%, regardless of what that guy's complicated math says.

[Something_Smart]

Are you saying that problem is equivalent to something like, "Pick two random from 11+4 and find the probability of both being town"? That would be wrong. I haven't seen any easy reduction yet.

I think he's getting at a reduction where you randomly rank all the players and then town wins if X town are ranked higher than Y scum (more complicated than that, but that's the gist). That may work and if so would reduce EV to a single combinatorics problem instead of a shitton of probability problems.

[RadiantCowbells]

That view is the correct one

The one where you rank the players from top to bottom

It misses a lot but

[Krazy]

I think right now it would be won by town a lot because towns are very strong these days

LAL VOTE: rc

[Something_Smart]

In theory, if chennis's assumption is valid which it seems to be, you could use combinatorics to count the number of possible games and count how many of them are won by town.

Pedit: well yeah it's just an EV calculation. It's not meant to be a model of how players actually play, although as a very rough model it isn't the worst one.

[RadiantCowbells]

It's the one I used for my normal game WR calculator

[Auro]

Something_Smart, yeah, that's what I was implying he was trying to do. I was trying to reduce Nightless games into that kind of combinatorics problem earlier but didn't find one, doubt it's easy for this too.

[Auro]

Yeah, even when you rank players that way there are extra conditions to impose and that removes the "simple combinatorics" solutions you could get. Hmm, I'll try again though.

[RadiantCowbells]

Not that I agree with his statements about win equity

I just think the system of modelling is superior and it also works well with calculating the impact of cops and such

[Auro]

Would you be willing to share it at some point?

[Nancy Drew 39]

heres a question

whens the last time anyone complained about a setup being scumsided

Lots of games are. I know I’ve complained about a few.

[RadiantCowbells]

It's outdated it was based off of the old normal rules

[Auro]

I'm still interested though!

[Creature]

Lynch

- Okay

1of4

- Should be disabled if there's only one scum left

8-ball

- Okay, but maybe make it easier for town to hit the 8ball?

Arena

- Okay

Call a Friend

- Can only call one player and if that player doesn't give anything no message will be displayed

Coalition

- Allow scum to nightkill

Dance

- After dance, undo dance pairs and allow scum to kill

Popcorn

- Okay

Protect

- Okay I guess

Quiz

- Have no idea tbh

Rank

- Okay

Reveal

- Okay

Treestump

- Okay

Vengeful

- Should allow scum to nightkill if town is the one to venge

Veto

- idk

Also thought about a mafia 1-shot repicker

[Creature]

This game was annoying because I was like the 7th player to die and it took about 7 game days for me to die. This game like is dragged way too much which is pretty time consuming for both sides.

[Creature]

Should probably disallow many mechanisms preventing any death to occur

[Skygazer]

8-ball - Okay, but maybe make it easier for town to hit the 8ball?

pick three players and all of them are two and two thirds balls

[Dannflor]

why not pick 17 players and all of them are just under half a ball

[RadiantCowbells]

why not pick 8 players and they can all have 1 ball