unwnd - popsofctown PT

[popsofctown]

Blake Belladonna is an open ank alt btw

[popsofctown]

"tents or eleven when the correct answer is ten" ebwop

[popsofctown]

I've been thinking about the setup and the strongest strategy for winning the setup, given that you read your partner, seems to be building a 2 pair townbloc.

If you build a 1 pair townbloc you may go to 4 mana LyLo which has 33% EV. But I think the dynamics of betrayal and rapport make the town EV on 4 mana LyLo even worse than 33% so you really don't want to get there.

If you build a 3 pair townbloc you would like also win good on you but that's excessive because you only need a bloc that big if you can't find a single scum lynch. Even just from randing we should be able to lynch a scum.

With a 2 pair townbloc you always win the game except in rare instances where you failed to even rand a measly 1 scum lynch. When there are 3 pairs left your 2 pair townblock controls 4/6 votes so they can preserve the townblock they intend to win the game with. With more players in the game it's less straightforward but you should still hopefully have enough votes and voice to defend your townblock.

So I think it is really important to try to find a full pair that could be trusted to be town and try to ride the game with that. If you make your townread guesses and lock them in you win every time those townreads are right minus like a 10% chance the scum manage to 3sweep. If you go with scumread based play you win like 45% of the time from effective scumhunting and then it falls through to this 20% chance of winning the 4 man LyLo.

In some ways townhunting and scumhunting are like just different ways of presenting the same idea but the thing is this is my first time playing nightless and townbloccing seems so "broken" when your townbloc can't get shot
It breaks it even more if we can keep some of our townreading secret so that the mafia ask the wrong pair to leave at intermission.

Let me know what you think

[popsofctown]

townbloc pair potentials:

Ank-MariaR: like probably never but maybe we should leave smartypants MariaR alive long enough to let us know who we should be townbloccing if she'll ever start giving us anything. If she's a scum this game and a scum goddess I'd expect precious little indictment on her teammates though.
Oka-Gamma: Even though I think this is the scummiest pair in the game the universes in which I could flip to a townread on both of them are less weird than the universes where I can feel positive MariaR or Shiro is town which is kinda weird??
Kagami-Gaiden: probably can never townblock this. The best value they could add to the game is if they eat the intermission shot
Dunn-Bitmap: I am higher on bitty than you are. Another problem is that you have to be able to keep the partnership from dying and like even if FakeGod pm'ed us both these players role pms I'm not sure we could keep Bitmap lynch from happening for a full game.
Golden-Robtser-Creature: Creature has a reputation for towntelling in the lategame. Robster is not my number one townread in the game but that could change. Also I think Creature is above average at reads so townreading Creature then staking the game on what he's getting out of the lover PT could be pretty good EV.
Firebringer-Shiro: It just doesn't seem conceivable that this endgames. Also, even in endgame, Firebringer seems so unstable that he could actually leave his partner and destroy our theoretical townblock that way even if Shiro did somehow start townspewing, lol.
Ceph-DeasVail: My Sr on Ceph is softening a little bit but the other pair in the townbloc would need to TR us back and it doesn't seem like Cephrir is ever gonna trust me this game. Maybe if DV starts wearing most of the pants in the relationship and makes Cephrir sheep his read on us but DV seems pretty passive soooo

[popsofctown]

is that everyone

[unwnd]

Ank is the epitome of weird honestly, but you have to wonder why she would play such a...attraction based game. Like, she has the highest amount of posts and is almost always there in arguments even if I feel she doesn't necessarily bring anything strikingly new. I could see it as scum bored and doing the equilvalent of shitposting.

Doesn't matter too much though cause my focus on Maria. I haven't played with Ank before

[unwnd]

I've been thinking about the setup and the strongest strategy for winning the setup, given that you read your partner, seems to be building a 2 pair townbloc.

If you build a 1 pair townbloc you may go to 4 mana LyLo which has 33% EV. But I think the dynamics of betrayal and rapport make the town EV on 4 mana LyLo even worse than 33% so you really don't want to get there.

If you build a 3 pair townbloc you would like also win good on you but that's excessive because you only need a bloc that big if you can't find a single scum lynch. Even just from randing we should be able to lynch a scum.

With a 2 pair townbloc you always win the game except in rare instances where you failed to even rand a measly 1 scum lynch. When there are 3 pairs left your 2 pair townblock controls 4/6 votes so they can preserve the townblock they intend to win the game with. With more players in the game it's less straightforward but you should still hopefully have enough votes and voice to defend your townblock.

So I think it is really important to try to find a full pair that could be trusted to be town and try to ride the game with that. If you make your townread guesses and lock them in you win every time those townreads are right minus like a 10% chance the scum manage to 3sweep. If you go with scumread based play you win like 45% of the time from effective scumhunting and then it falls through to this 20% chance of winning the 4 man LyLo.

In some ways townhunting and scumhunting are like just different ways of presenting the same idea but the thing is this is my first time playing nightless and townbloccing seems so "broken" when your townbloc can't get shot
It breaks it even more if we can keep some of our townreading secret so that the mafia ask the wrong pair to leave at intermission.

Let me know what you think

I think with this setup metrics involved become more apparent as the game continues on. The problem I have considering these right now is pretty much on the fact I don't have two pairs who I strongly townread yet, so once I get at least two pairings I'd be willing to be more diplomatic on that front.

[popsofctown]

nuuu you only need 1 pair you townread if you townread your own pair

If you had to find 2 other pairs it'd be too hard

[unwnd]

townbloc pair potentials:

Ank-MariaR: like probably never but maybe we should leave smartypants MariaR alive long enough to let us know who we should be townbloccing if she'll ever start giving us anything. If she's a scum this game and a scum goddess I'd expect precious little indictment on her teammates though.
Oka-Gamma: Even though I think this is the scummiest pair in the game the universes in which I could flip to a townread on both of them are less weird than the universes where I can feel positive MariaR or Shiro is town which is kinda weird??
Kagami-Gaiden: probably can never townblock this. The best value they could add to the game is if they eat the intermission shot
Dunn-Bitmap: I am higher on bitty than you are. Another problem is that you have to be able to keep the partnership from dying and like even if FakeGod pm'ed us both these players role pms I'm not sure we could keep Bitmap lynch from happening for a full game.
Golden-Robtser-Creature: Creature has a reputation for towntelling in the lategame. Robster is not my number one townread in the game but that could change. Also I think Creature is above average at reads so townreading Creature then staking the game on what he's getting out of the lover PT could be pretty good EV.
Firebringer-Shiro: It just doesn't seem conceivable that this endgames. Also, even in endgame, Firebringer seems so unstable that he could actually leave his partner and destroy our theoretical townblock that way even if Shiro did somehow start townspewing, lol.
Ceph-DeasVail: My Sr on Ceph is softening a little bit but the other pair in the townbloc would need to TR us back and it doesn't seem like Cephrir is ever gonna trust me this game. Maybe if DV starts wearing most of the pants in the relationship and makes Cephrir sheep his read on us but DV seems pretty passive soooo

Ank-MariaR:I've known Maria for a while, she's a pretty capable player yeah but I think what happens when you gain a noteority you use that as an advantage esp when ur scum. This kinda is what made me dislike the formation of the Ank-Maria pairing cause she took the angle they'd be paranoia slots or whatever. Regardless, you play these two based on hoe well their pushes are and the impact of them.
Oka-Gamma"I think this pair has scum but if they're not scum cutting our losses is fine. Not worth a townbloc even in the scenario where they are town
Kagami-Gaiden: Agree with never townblocing this. I think them eating the intermission shot is crucial and its best to worry about it later.
GR-Creature: Could see myself townblocing this if Creature starts telling a bit harder. GR is weird to me and so are his reads, part of me is just OK with him but these two especially go up in value based on how the game unfolds and how longer they are around.
FB-Shiro: Almost never townblocing this unless Shiro's angle on Maria ends up to be right--and even then I have a gut feeling Shiro is just trying to distance there.
Ceph-DeasVail: I wanna townbloc this in the future. I think DV has a good head on him and Ceph is being a bit indignant in the thread (slightly annoying) but probably isn't getting lynched anytime soon.
Dunn-Bit: Can see this as a townbloc based on Maria flip. Kinda seems like Maria vote would be best here but Oka-Gamma are going to have the most grime if they're town anyways so yeh still doing that angle.

tl;dr

GR-Creature > Ceph-DeasVail > Dunn-Bit

[popsofctown]

the alternative way to win under the same theory would be to shout in the thread that you think 4 people are town and that everyone should sheep that then leave your partner and hope that those 4 people survive. Which is actually really close to a strategy I think Ankamius and/or MariaR are considering, formally or informally, because they are Burden of Proficiency lynchbait. But my own lovership is definitely my strongest townread so that's not the best angle.

[unwnd]

nuuu you only need 1 pair you townread if you townread your own pair

If you had to find 2 other pairs it'd be too hard

Oh right

Probably GR-Creature or Ceph-Deas if I had a gun to my head.

[popsofctown]

Those make some sense. I am lower on Cephrir and DV than you are but I feel like the "theory of the game" that puts Cephrir at town also puts DV at town so it's possible for them to feel town.

[popsofctown]

If I could repair the other players to create a custom townbloc that'd make this sooooo much easier.

Like Kagami-Creature , Dunnstral-Ank
EZ mafia

[unwnd]

Yeah that's the shitty part of this setup that you run the risk of sinking a town in the process of sorting people out.

I'm only high on Ceph-DV cause of some of their takes.

I basically see the two diverging into two paths

1) Scum is openly adding to the white noise, and causing dissent for the town to make proper plays
2) Scum is ignoring the white noise and letting town make shitty decisions without needing to be there

Leaning on 1) right now which lmao not to repeat myself is why I want the Oka-Gamma lynch so badly

[unwnd]

Basically see the game diverging into two paths*

[popsofctown]

Oka Gamma lynch has been surprisingly difficult compared to how difficult it should be

[unwnd]

That kinda makes me feel like it's right? Could be conf bias on my end

[popsofctown]

MariaR said bussing in this setup is really bad and when I think about it that's probably true. You can't bus someone and enjoy 2-3 game days of cred and then shoot someone unwilling to award buscred every night.
So it's probably stronger logic than confirmation bias to think these wagons being harder than they should be means something.

I think VCA will be very powerful in this setup which is why I'm ravenous hungry for that first red flip

[popsofctown]

There is confidence, and there is cockiness/condescension-as-a-strategy that is scum indicative.
MariaR's earlier play seemed like it might just be the first one.

She's increasingly playing like I need to interpret it as the second one.

[popsofctown]

wow i posted that just BEFORE 2726

is this stuff real?

[unwnd]

I agree with you on the second one, it's almost annoying to deal with and I feel she's aware of that. We'll just have to catch her elsewhere because it's like

You can't make scum think they're scum lol

[unwnd]

Damn my reads r sick

[popsofctown]

I know I haven't played with your main because I can't remember anyone who spells r that way.

I'm a lil mad oka half-scum-claimed in his love pt instead of lurking into the reveal, made it less suspenseful and fun.

I think our core disagreement in the love PT would be is DV/Cephrir scummier or is Dunnstral/bitmap scummier and the info gamma provided about okapoka's positioning in his love PT seems to suggest you are right and I am wrong

if we see that flip and it's true you are def welcome to quote post 46 again

[unwnd]

Yeah that was kinda lame. I'm not sure if I'm ready to commit on either yet without looking into Oka a bit more intently. I kinda think Gaiden's hammer sucks shit but I'll never be able to reach that slot.

[unwnd]

How do you feel about the game rn? I'm slightly paranoid the game is not as easy as people are making it seem.