unwnd - popsofctown PT

[popsofctown]

I'm tentatively willing to believe MariaR is gonna solve the whole thing for us.

When she starts missing I'll freak out more.

Also if the scum don't NK gaiden i'll be hella stressed

[unwnd]

I think I'd prefer the solve to be harder than it's seeming to be.

[popsofctown]

TBH
Fakegod games are the best
If I can requeue a fakegod game really soon an instawin is okay
if I can't maybe it's better if this drags out and gets hard so I get to play more open setup funzies

[popsofctown]

the d1 lynch is the funnest part of mafia if you build up a n1 kill meta you get to be like that annoying teenage girl who plays just the chorus of every top 40 song before switching to a different one

[popsofctown]

I feel like if bitmap is scum Dunnstral would eventually leave him and the same is not true of DV/Ceph and definitely not true of FB/Shiro (er. Well they are both insane there's like a 50% they immediately do it in 6 man / 4 man game and a 50% chance they lock against it)

Another thing I don't like about this wagon.. suppose we can townlock MariaR for a Bitmap redflip. Then don't we want that to happen just after intermission, not just before?

[unwnd]

I think this wagon is a bit preemptive I agree, but I almost like it that way. I think if I had to choose on a Bit/Dunn redflip whose votes was worse I'd probably say Firebringer even if he's been consistent about not liking Bitmap

ur 53 is funny but how come you shot me down until i started to pull my pants up and sobered up huh?

[unwnd]

I might do a dive and read into how people paired up. I talked about it in-thread but the reason Ali got eliminated is cause scum paired early. Brb posting this thought in the main thread in a different wording

[popsofctown]

lol sorry i'll work on timing next time

[popsofctown]

analyzing pairing decisions can get some extra reads, like i posted in thread i think creature is near cleared by oka propositioning him.
There is a 25% base probability there's no meaning to pairing decisions at all, though, because all scumz were male and death-by-wallflower was always gonna happen to a girl. I'd bump that up to like 30% or so just due to tending to TR girls more than boys this game. I haven't re-tallied that since pre-dance though maybe it's evener now

[unwnd]

Well with kagami as an IC the ladies look like this, running under thread assumption:

Spoiler:

Ladies
MariaR
Alisae, who was Town Lady, has left in pre-dance.
Kagami Town Lady IC
popsofctown Town Lady
Gamma Emerald, who was Town Lady, has left in First Dance.
Creature lupin007 Town Lady due to Oka
Bitmap
Cephrir
Shiro

Running numbers right now it's

16-2

. There's not as many ladies to flip anymore than there are Gentlemen, besides the ones who paired with the leftover ladies. This means 4 ladies are leftover

Spoiler:

Gentlemen
OkaPoka, who was Mafia Gentleman, has left in First Dance.
unwnd Town Gentlemen
Dunnstral
Firebringer
SXTLHGaiden
DeasVail
Golden Robster Oversoul
Ankamius

Less defined imo. I guess where I'm going with this is that if we believe the game to be EZ and we lynch (just going on consensus)

Bitmap/Dunn
Shiro/Firebringer
-- INTERMISSION --
DeasVail/Cephrir

Makes the list look like this

Spoiler:

DeasVail - Cephrir

Kagami - SXTLHGaiden
Ankamius - MariaR

Firebringer - Shiro

OkaPoka - Gamma Emerald

Dunnstral - Bitmap
unwnd - popsofctown
Golden Robster - Creature

and

Spoiler:

Gents 2

OkaPoka, who was Mafia Gentleman, has left in First Dance.
unwnd Town Gentlemen

Dunnstral

Firebringer

SXTLHGaiden
DeasVail
Golden Robster Oversoul
Ankamius

Spoiler:

Ladies 2

MariaR
Alisae, who was Town Lady, has left in pre-dance.
Kagami Town Lady IC
popsofctown Town Lady
Gamma Emerald, who was Town Lady, has left in First Dance.
Creature lupin007 Town Lady due to Oka

Bitmap

Cephrir

Shiro

We can only afford two pairings here before forced intermission actually. Lynching two T-T pairings leaves us at 12-2. Scum gets rid of a pairings and thats 10-2.

I guess what I got out of this is that we can pretty much net a ladyscum before we run out of gents, so lynching and looking for ladyscum is IMO feasible even if I think there's one.

[unwnd]

Ali being left out told a lot more than scum anticipated I think, because if we buy Creature's spew with Oka then we pretty much can lynch down a list up until intermission. The dangerous aspect comes right after it, so these two pair lynches are pretty crucial actually

[unwnd]

I take that back, don't think it's that simple

I don't think we're close enough yet to start doing that, we need to lynch and get another redflip, then I'll revisit that thought.

[popsofctown]

Intermission occurs after the next lynch actually.
The lady analysis kinda increases that paranoia about the MariaR slot. Like maybe she counted off which people were going to pair off for lol memes and thinking it might get down to like 3 girls against the wall and guys saying "I don't want her I can't read her". So she is with Ankamius and yknow there's like this way of looking at it that it's best partner ever but other ways of looking at it that it's worst partner ever for her.

But it's not necessarily the case that there's anything there in the pairing analysis, if there is 2/3 in the remaining FB-DV-Dunn gents and that's just the solve and they are all people who paired based on pregame arrangements, save using that analysis to want the Dunn-bit lynch even more.

[unwnd]

I worry about that too, believe me

There's no way to really reach that slot however cause her playstyle this game is just being indignant towards everyone who scumreads her, which is why I'm sorta like 'ok maria we can lynch BitDunn' because again not seeing Maria thinking she's that amazing to carry her team alone. I wanna see what happens if it's a mislynch and where she goes from there

[unwnd]

U should come in and put Deas/Ceph to L-1, think the day is over because we're just going in circles at this rate

[popsofctown]

yeah i'm moving towards doing that I was thinking about explaining gambler's fallacy more fully to Creature but it's kinda burdensome and might clog the thread

[popsofctown]

DV is not scumflip
Out of people to scumread for participation in the wagon my impulse is MariaR but that might be BoP

[popsofctown]

If we want to deadsheep DV and Cephrir then Firebringer and Shiro are suspect.

I don't know if Cephrir saying so counts for much because it seems like playing D messed him up so much it might have messed with his reads
But DV seemed pretty unphased by the pressure so that's some input worth counting.

[unwnd]

FB/Shiro might be where the wagon goes. I sorta feel like townies just wrongly mislynched their own and scum sat there and let it happen. Possibly one there? Who knows.

I'm sorta glad this was wrong even if it's against my wincon because I had a feeling things weren't as they seemed. It kinda sucks losing a T-T pair but I might consider going for GRob/Creature because honestly their presence towards that whole phase was a bit uncanny

[popsofctown]

I really really don't think Creature is scum for the reasons I said in thread.
GRob is playing too flaccidly to be a double busser, if you double bus you have to be playing well enough to really carry it through LyLo. So I'd really only want to flip him after a Shiro flip. He is pretty similar to Gaiden in having a really lifeless iso that's objectively scummy.

I saw someone say they were townreading him and I can't remember who, but I should have asked for an explanation in case that person is gonna be dead now oof.

[unwnd]

DeasVail - Cephrir [8] - Dunnstral, Bitmap,

Kagami,

unwnd

, Ankamius, MariaR,

popsofctown

,

SXTLHGaiden

[LYNCH]
Kagami - SXTLHGaiden [0] -
Ankamius - MariaR [0] -
Firebringer - Shiro [3] - Golden Robster, Cephrir, Creature
Dunnstral - Bitmap [3] - Firebringer, DeasVail, Shiro
unwnd - popsofctown [0] -
Golden Robster - Creature [0] -

Not Voting [0] -

With 14 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

Countdown to deadline: 5 days, 0 hours, 32 minutes

This is running under the assumption that Kagami/Gaiden were town and are removed, and that we're both town as well. There's two distinct pairing with no deviation on this lynch. Does wagonomics insist that Dunn/Bit and Ank/Maria have one pairing? Possibly. If we go by that I can see the thread tyring to go for Dunn/Bit (which was the other lynch considered) but if

that

doesn't have a red I will 100% back my own process that town likely mislynched their own and a lot of the grime aka scum didn't want anything to do with the wagon. BittDunn v AnkMaria will most definitely happen and this votecount works more in our favor if its SvT in relation to DunnvMaria.

I really think GRob/Creature look bad here all things considered. I do see what you're saying about GRob and how he's playing, so perhaps you're going at the angle scum know they have an implanted mate who who's deeper than we percieve?

[popsofctown]

Yeah the wagonomics on GRob suggests either GRob is just a snorlaxy town or Okascum+Grobscum is letting a third player who is doing things a bit better accelerate into endgame faster. So Grobscum points to like, MariaR scum, or SXTLHGaiden wincon, or tbh you so I'm keeping my eyes open. It actually works for Dunnstralscum better than bitmap scum because grob committed kinda early to the strategy he could expect the town's scumread on bitmap to go away if that scumread is actually false, but if it has roots he'd expect it to stick and would have just helped us mislynch Ceph.

[popsofctown]

We have not lynched enough of the EZ lynchpool to say everything was totally wrong because it could still just be Shiro-Oka-Bitmap solve.

But I think we should definitely take a breath and rethink with the info from DV mislynch + much more minor info from intermission flip.
We have some elbow room to make lynches in the order that gives us the most information

[unwnd]

Well I kinda expected that to happen

What's your take on the wagon? All town mislynch or one of the pairings have scum?

[popsofctown]

I lean towards the former but I think we should stay open to both possibilities. It's a different wagon to analyze.

I think reading stuff like tone and disingenuity might be more useful than wagonomics due to the setup mechanics. Lots of people are loversheeping. Like even if a scum and a townie mindmeld on a mislynch together ideally with wagonomics you'd want to find someone who is scummy for their own reasons and combine that with the bad mislynch positioning but with the mindmeld and voting together you might be looking at the wrong head.

IDK I'm not a very VCA oriented player so maybe i'll look at every setup mechanic as an excuse not to do VCA. I love trying to read people.