Starry Night [Game Over]

[Creature]

I want to do FB/Shiro pair

[Ankamius]

Expect mariar to hard push Dunnmap today

That's essentially all she said in the pt overnight

[Ankamius]

I think it's Bitmap + GR/Creature

[unwnd]

I think it's Bitmap + GR/Creature

That's where my head is right now too

[popsofctown]

Yawn man

Now I'm unsure which pair is most likely T-T

that's a shame cause I think if you correctly townlock one pair then lynch randomly the town EV is like 80% or something

If we lynch randomly our EV is like 60%?

With five pairs if one was correctly townlocked the odds of losing is only possible from 3 immediate mislynches. The odds of that is (3/4)(2/3)(1/2). So the odds of winning is 1 - (3/4)(2/3)(1/2). So it's 75% which is close to my 80% estimate

[popsofctown]

What does MariaR hardpush look like
is it pretty

[Ankamius]

What does MariaR hardpush look like
is it pretty

Dunno I'm not sure if I've ever seen it myself

It's probably a lot less messy than mine are though

[popsofctown]

i dont think itd be possible for me to build a case i believe in

hm maybe my deadsheep ideas will have to come from DV or kagami

[popsofctown]

FB/Shiro is an inferior lynch by a large margin.

I mean, you probably want to lynch Bitmap almost no matter what.

I kinda like Shiro lynch better than Bit but there's this + MariaR + Ank so

Creature keeps saying he's team FB/Shiro but he hasn't explained it

[Ankamius]

Pops you should only be taking our word at face value if you believe we are town

JS

[popsofctown]

FB/Shiro is the only possible scum-scum pair so 2/3 of MariaR/Ank/Kagami is town. I don't know if I am twice as smart as these people. But it is easier to solve the game if people don't sheep too much.

I'd really like to see some hackeysack kicked around starting with Creature can you explain your reads more?

[popsofctown]

oh I hard TR you anyway btw
it's after intermission I can say that now

[Ankamius]

I'll prob go more into my thoughts here eventually

I'm planning on sleeping shortly though

[Dunnstral]

Did anyone talk about Kagami-Gaiden in your pts

[Ankamius]

I said at one point I was expecting them to be the NK and planning around it

[Ankamius]

Dunn if you could remove two pairings

Which would you remove

[Dunnstral]

IDK

[Dunnstral]

Why do you think it's Gr/Creature

[Creature]

I'm up to leave the dance after both FB/Shiro and Dunn/Bit.

[Bitmap]

Can you guys just lynch MariaR/Ank when Dunn and I flip T-T?

Like, I know everyone is hell bent on getting my pair lynched today.

[Bitmap]

Also, I wonder what happened to unwnd's scum read on MariaR...

Well here's my other dumb on MariaR cause she's being talked about a wee bit

Spoiler:

Maria - Talked in thread about this read a bit. Think Maria's pushes lack initiative, like there is a certain process required that I'm not seeing. This isn't an individual tell rather more ubiquitous, and I think that her play suggests that she will be applying pressure more effectively but doesn't do anything with it? I think when town are trying to apply pressure they may exaggerate their stances and then eventually reveal what they got out of this exchange, but I'm not really close to understanding this from Maria. It's like with Dunn she seemed really pissed about..whatever, but nothing came out of it. There was another instance where she was hard on Ceph calling him scum but ???? where did that go lol. In terms of Maria themselves, I think that pressure and see what happens fits her mold, but right now I think she's just trying to play too close to what is effective as a townie without the results. That's why you see cookie-cutter exchanges or her coming to conclusions before anything actually happens. Lean scum

[popsofctown]

That's because you scumread him right? And not because you think Leave is inherently powerful in the setup?

[Bitmap]

Why do people have scum read on GR?

[Bitmap]

Is it worth to post things when you're all going to ignore my ISO after I die when I flip town?

[Bitmap]

so is there any reason not to lynch dunnmap

How many mislynches can we afford? Is the gameplan still lynching BittDunn and then FBShiro? Do we have room to do so?

No, the game plan is if you lynch BitDunn and they both flip town, you lynch AnkMariaR or popsunwnd. Look at the wagon.

Dunn, bitmap, unwnd, Ankamius, MariaR, popsofctown

This is the wagon we have. At least one of these pairs has a scum I can guarantee it at this point. And these pairs all have their town pocketed so hard that we're in a pretty dangerous position.

unwnd always had a scum read on MariaR and never pushed it. Had me as conf scum but jumped on the DV wagon as soon as the bitt/dunn wagon wasn't going through.

Stop trying to lynch fire/shiro.