Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Egduf]

Welcome to the game Hectic! I think the set up and night stat dissucssion has been useful, but I agree with moving on from that a little bit more.
With that said, here are my town leans so far, in no particular order:

EspressoPatronum - For trying to figure out the best way of stranding people. I don't agree that assigning three people to possibly do the shooting is necissarily a good idea but I could be fairly easily purswaded on this one. If the three people are town then it narrows down mafia targets, and if there are two mafia in the three they cannot be trusted to shoot their buddy.

Delta Klim - For the stratgy after a mafia member has died. I can't see any problems with it yet, and it seems like a good idea, but I'm naturally sceptical of plans like this. We might potentailly have to get Serene and Oversoul to temporarily put aside their bloodlust if we want to use it though, it will only work if all town members cooperate.

Gandalf - Because I think he seems pretty geuine so far, and if he was mafia I think he would have been getting more help with vote formating and other questions in the mafia day chat rather than having to ask them here.

Carl Tuckerson - Simmilar reasons to Espresso.

I don't think Menalque asking for more voting says anything about his alignment.
Don't worry FormerFish, I'm not giving any of theese people a "near cop clear", but I can have a bad habit of tunnel vission early on so call me out on that if you see it.

[Egduf]

Any day with odds can have each slot vote their pairing with the leftover voting the designated strand. For clarity.

We should absolutely not do this before one mafia is dead and the masons have revealed.
If the strand is mafia, the remaining mafia shoot, everyone dies except the strand and mafia win.
If the strand is town, both goons baricade and the mafia win.
Delta's plan only works because the two masons outnumber the one goon if the goon were to baricade.

[EspressoPatronum]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

This is surprisingly difficult to read. Are all of your posts going to be like this?

[Hectic]

I

agree

that the setup discussion has been

useful

, and I just noticed this game has only been up

for

1 day, thought it was more for some reason. Been hard for me to formulate any scumreads so far but got a few

classic

townreads on Delta, Egdfu and Gandalf. Delta is the only townread I have based on setup discussion, because the strat they

presented

genuinely seems like it can break the setup and tilt

the

odds in town's favour massively. Eudfg

for

getting started with

some

nice reads, and Gandalf for that nice BBCode self-tutorial and genuinity.

EspressoPatronum: no?

[Tet]

Any day with odds can have each slot vote their pairing with the leftover voting the designated strand. For clarity.

We should absolutely not do this before one mafia is dead and the masons have revealed.
If the strand is mafia, the remaining mafia shoot, everyone dies except the strand and mafia win.
If the strand is town, both goons baricade and the mafia win.
Delta's plan only works because the two masons outnumber the one goon if the goon were to baricade.

Yes, the whole plan was predicated on there being a mafia flipped. I assumed it was implied, sorry.

[EspressoPatronum]

EspressoPatronum - For trying to figure out the best way of stranding people.

I don't agree that assigning three people to possibly do the shooting is necissarily a good idea

but I could be fairly easily purswaded on this one. If the three people are town then it narrows down mafia targets, and if there are two mafia in the three they cannot be trusted to shoot their buddy.

I agree - 3 might not be the best. I like Delta's suggestion in 147: 7 townies who shoot 1/3 of the time.

[Oversoul]

Edguf, what is your read on me?

[Gandalf]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

[Gandalf]

I'm thinking Delta and Hectic could be Scum, plus someone who is being quiet.

[Delta Klim]

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

It is simple. They claim. (This is a Day 2 strategy at the earliest. Masons should not claim today unless one of them is about to be stranded.)

[TiphaineDeath]

Mmmm, masons claiming and making pairs doesn't actually work though? Everyone ends up dead cause scum can strong-man a mason?

[Delta Klim]

If there are two masons left, the strongman cannot kill both of them.

If there is one mason left, whoever the strongman is paired with will live, as they are not being shot if the strongman kills the mason.

[Most Serene]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

So your contribution is:

1. Breaking strategies are good

2. An OMGUS vote, literally and openly stated

3. We should talk about voting someone instead of breaking strategies


Thanks for checking in with your meaningless contribution. Are you scum who's intimidated into saying something obvious just for the sake of posting?

[Most Serene]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

So your contribution is:

1. Breaking strategies are good

2. An OMGUS vote, literally and openly stated

3. We should talk about voting someone instead of breaking strategies


Thanks for checking in with your meaningless contribution. Are you scum who's intimidated into saying something obvious just for the sake of posting?

-k in case it isn't obvious by tone

[Gandalf]

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

It is simple. They claim. (This is a Day 2 strategy at the earliest. Masons should not claim today unless one of them is about to be stranded.)

So if there are three people in mafia chat co-ordinating what to do, while the rest of us guess who the masons are (because anyone who gets stranded will claim mason), how does this impact on the probabilities you've posted? Sorry for being thick, I'm on a bit of a learning curve here...

[Gandalf]

And please can you show the actual calculations and the thinking, rather than just the results?

[Oversoul]

VOTE: Hectic

[Delta Klim]

UNVOTE:

My scumread on Gandalf may just be a result of his inexperience. I'll give him a short amount of time to acclimate.

We do not need to guess at the masons' identities today (beyond not wanting to shoot a mason at night.)

Forcing two of the mafia to claim mason if one of them is in danger of being stranded is actually a good thing for town as the real masons can deal with them at night (or counter-claim on day 2.) It is less beneficial if we allow a claim of mason without claiming their partner, but I do not see a reason to do so.

In the 25%/25%/50% setup I proposed, a single stranded scum only lives if none of the 8 townies shoot them, a chance of 0.75^8 or 10%.
Town is the same with one fewer potential shooter.

For a single mafia to live if shooting at night, they have to not be targeted by a townie. Each townie has a 1 in 4 chance to shoot at their scumread, of which there are 11 possibilities (if ignoring the stranded player.) 1/44 is about 2.3%; the chance to dodge 8 townies at that rate is about 83%.

For a mafia to live if barricading, they would have to draw 2 shots from townies at that 2.3% rate. That has a 98.7% chance of not happening if the shots are truly random.

For a single town, it works the same as mafia except that there is one fewer shooter. 85% chance if shooting, 99% if barricading. Since each happens half the time, there is a 93% chance of survival.

Of course, all those odds assume they are not targeted by scum.

[Most Serene]

Math is boring


Make with the murder I'm getting antsy

I came here to do the devils work, not the devil's homework

[Menalque]

I think I could see egduf + Gandalf scum

[Menalque]

VOTE: Icon for an iconic first day strand

Goddamn I should be in advertising

Asking for a friend, after a second posting of a joke that got no play how do you feel?

Fucking devastated fam, you have no idea

[Menalque]

Delta, EP, Most Serene are all towny

Everyone else is in the null pile

[Menalque]

VOTE: gandalf

[Gandalf]

UNVOTE:

My scumread on Gandalf may just be a result of his inexperience. I'll give him a short amount of time to acclimate.

We do not need to guess at the masons' identities today (beyond not wanting to shoot a mason at night.)

Forcing two of the mafia to claim mason if one of them is in danger of being stranded is actually a good thing for town as the real masons can deal with them at night (or counter-claim on day 2.) It is less beneficial if we allow a claim of mason without claiming their partner, but I do not see a reason to do so.

In the 25%/25%/50% setup I proposed, a single stranded scum only lives if none of the 8 townies shoot them, a chance of 0.75^8 or 10%.
Town is the same with one fewer potential shooter.

For a single mafia to live if shooting at night, they have to not be targeted by a townie. Each townie has a 1 in 4 chance to shoot at their scumread, of which there are 11 possibilities (if ignoring the stranded player.) 1/44 is about 2.3%; the chance to dodge 8 townies at that rate is about 83%.

For a mafia to live if barricading, they would have to draw 2 shots from townies at that 2.3% rate. That has a 98.7% chance of not happening if the shots are truly random.

For a single town, it works the same as mafia except that there is one fewer shooter. 85% chance if shooting, 99% if barricading. Since each happens half the time, there is a 93% chance of survival.

Of course, all those odds assume they are not targeted by scum.

Okay town. So in this post Delta draws attention to my inexperience, but doesn't seem to address my request for workings on the maths if mafia are co-ordinating themselves separately from us in a private chat. If you remember when we started, we thought not shooting randomly at night was a good thing, until Delta found this "gamebreaking" strategy that involves us all shooting each other just like we agreed was a bad idea. I'm not saying I'm not going to go along with it, but what if mafia realised we were onto something and cooked this up in their chat, potentially explaining why Hectic said so little until voted for, and then suddenly sprang into life telling us not to worry about the maths behind this strategy.

The maths look wrong to me, the numbers are not where I would intuitively expect them to be. Bearing in mind three of you are scum, please could I get some outside confirmation outside of Delta that this is the way to go? What do we think of this?

[Egduf]

Gandalf, can you talk me through a scenario where Delta’s strategy doesn’t work? Remember he’s only talking about situations where one mafia is already dead, this isn’t a plan for tonight. I can’t see any good reason for you to opposite it other than the fact you don’t think the numbers are where they should be, which isn’t a good reason unless you provide your own numbers.