Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Menalque]

#198-199

Hmm

[Gandalf]

Gandalf, can you talk me through a scenario where Delta’s strategy doesn’t work? Remember he’s only talking about situations where one mafia is already dead, this isn’t a plan for tonight. I can’t see any good reason for you to opposite it other than the fact you don’t think the numbers are where they should be, which isn’t a good reason unless you provide your own numbers.

I acknowledge I cant do the maths for this. However, I would expect mafia to support this plan. So if you are in favour, assuming you are town, that's good, but it is too narrow a sample for me to draw a conclusion on, as you might be scum. I'm hoping for everyone active in the chat to give a view on the maths which would provide a more reliable base. It seems very high stakes to blunder into based on some figures one player fired out and said make sense that I cant check. From memory there are two or three others who originally liked this approach, so does that remain the case?

[Egduf]

It doesn’t matter if you can’t check the exact maths. If you can provide a single scenario in which it wouldn’t work (no maths is required for this) then you are opposing it for a bad reason.
VOTE: Gandalf

[Egduf]

I meant to say “if you can’t provide”

[Delta Klim]

Gandalf, can you elaborate on how you would expect the mafia to support a plan that has the possibility to instantly lose the game for them on day 2?

[Egduf]

Edguf, what is your read on me?

Null so far, you haven’t said anything to sway me either way yet.

[Gandalf]

I'm saying I cant think through all the potential scenarios either. It feels wrong, based on what we discussed earlier on, and you (Edguf) yourself said you were sceptical of this sort of plan. I also said I would go along with it, if there was sufficient support from a range of players - that would reassure me. But if its just two or three, then they could all be scum pushing a flawed plan.

I wouldn't expect mafia to support a plan that loses the game for them on day 2 either Delta. So assuming you are right, that's great. However, I don't understand why you are right, so was looking around for some outside feedback to help inform my opinion - which assuming you are right will be forthcoming, and then I'll be happy

[Egduf]

Here’s the possible scenarios then
If the goon and strongman are in separate pairs:
The goon barricades, all town shoot. The only surviving player are the masons, town read, and the goon, the masons strand the goon and win.
The goon shoots, all town shoot. Everyone dies except the masons and the town read, we win.
The goon and strongman are in the same pair:
One of the masons/townread die, it’s 2v2, town lose.

The only times this plan fails is if we put both mafia members in the same pair, or if we get the one town read wrong. Having one strong town read is a pretty low bar to set for a plan, and the chance of mafia being in the same pair changes based on the number of players, but is pretty low. We should do better than random chance anyway, since the masons will be pairing people.

[Egduf]

Sorry, just realised there is another town member alive if the goon barricades. In this scenario the masons+town read can strand either one.
If the mafia member is stranded town win.
If the other townie is stranded, mafia get 0-1 kill which is 2v1 at worst and town win by stranding the goon the next day.

[Gandalf]

Here’s the possible scenarios then
If the goon and strongman are in separate pairs:
The goon barricades, all town shoot. The only surviving player are the masons, town read, and the goon, the masons strand the goon and win.
The goon shoots, all town shoot. Everyone dies except the masons and the town read, we win.
The goon and strongman are in the same pair:
One of the masons/townread die, it’s 2v2, town lose.

The only times this plan fails is if we put both mafia members in the same pair, or if we get the one town read wrong. Having one strong town read is a pretty low bar to set for a plan, and the chance of mafia being in the same pair changes based on the number of players, but is pretty low. We should do better than random chance anyway, since the masons will be pairing people.

If mafia are in chat between themselves, and they influence us to get into the same pair, then they win? And we don't know who the masons are, this is the real issue that is still itching away at me? And we have to pick a town read on trust too? And if all that it works as planned, then the maths are as Delta says?

I think I'm still missing something. Sorry to bore everyone by labouring the point but hopefully you can get out some popcorn and have laugh along...

[Most Serene]

Sorry to bore everyone

you fucking well should be, i'm not reading any of that shit


-k

[Egduf]

The masons know who eachother are and can claim. We will 100% know who the masons are if we use this plan. I think it’s unlikely mafia would be in the same pair, but if the player count is small enough or it looks like that might be happening then we can argue that point again at the time.
Other than Delta, who in the game do you trust/not so far.

[Egduf]

We here at Serene Health Initiatives Transunited would like to remind the users of this game that Most Serene, like all Serene projects, are a group therapy exercise. Should you, or someone you love, at any time see a Serene becoming irate or violent in the game, you are encouraged to very gently remind them that enlightenment and tranquility are more difficult to achieve when one is filled with negative thoughts. We here at Serene Health Initiatives Transunited wish all of you a safe and happy game, and we look forward to each of you assisting with our therapy. Namaste!

Sorry to bore everyone

you fucking well should be, i'm not reading any of that shit


-k

[Most Serene]

Dude just because I said some naughty words doesn't mean I'm raging


Go do you a meta dive and then come back after you know where the bar is set

-k

[TiphaineDeath]

Ah, the part I was missing is where there is one mafia dead when this all goes off, makes more sense now.

[Delta Klim]

I did say that at the top of my post, though in retrospect I can see where it could have been overlooked.

[Gandalf]

Okay, I been thinking about this a bit more. Thanks for the effort put into spelling it all out for me.

So I've asked for feedback and Delta, Edguf and Tiphane have all come back and said the plan is okay. Delta formed the plan, so that's two that have confirmed this plan as okay apart from Delta (plus Hectic and maybe some others before I started asked a load of questions about it). If we are going forward on the basis that I don't know whether it's a good plan or not, it would be good to get some extra views? It cant hurt town in any way to get it all out there.

[Gandalf]

Sorry to bore everyone

you fucking well should be, i'm not reading any of that shit


-k

love and kisses xxx

[Oversoul]

I don’t get how everyone is reading Gandalf as scum? Very surprised he is garnering votes right now

[Most Serene]

I don’t get how everyone is reading Gandalf as scum? Very surprised he is garnering votes right now

I find him very townie but I've never been a fan of the game theory about using mathematics to break a game. Mafia is psychological to me, not math

And anyway I've seen too many people fuck up breaking strategies or get led astray

[Menalque]

Rly? The whole vote thing seemed overdone

Like I thought initially he was maybe just acting like newb!town but I think it’s been so ott that I’m reading it more as newb!scum trying to seem super new to get passed over as newb!town

[Menalque]

Plus like I said I think edguf could be scum and that the vote is just some early distancing

[Oversoul]

I think I am ok with locktown!Gandalf

I don’t think newbscum!Gandalf comes up with that plan, Menalque.

[Oversoul]

I don’t get how everyone is reading Gandalf as scum? Very surprised he is garnering votes right now

I find him very townie but I've never been a fan of the game theory about using mathematics to break a game. Mafia is psychological to me, not math

And anyway I've seen too many people fuck up breaking strategies or get led astray

Can we hold each other when the world ends?

[Menalque]

Why not?