Newbie 1951 (Day 4)

[teacher]

@Skit: I cant tell if its just cold feet with much time left to play or if youve moved Fark up to null or are even towning. Where are you?

I ask because if youre town, Menalque (the intent) seems like an odd switch rather than reevaluating your reads of me/emps/selynee?

[NotMySpamAccount]

I'm on mobile, butbI agree with skitter here, fark is town. Teacher als probablt town. Creeper is a better lynch today than fark. Ask meqestions.

[Farkran]

Why does it benefit town to openly PR speculate?

I explained myself a few posts ago - in this setup, mafia does not need such information, therefore hiding it is only detrimental to the town in my eyes. If you need an actual quote, please ask me again and give me a few minutes since i'm on mobile.

Youre right, you did say that.

Why does Mafia not need that information, though? Surely a roleblocker would like their action to be successful? Surely goons would love to kill a cop?

Because they can speculate way better than town due to their info being vastly superior to town's. Please note that i am talking about PR speculation only, not actual PR claiming or even worse PR proof. Mafia would definitely need the latter two.

Try it another way. How does town benefit from open PR speculation?

Because a lot of VTs fail to see a PR point of view most of the times. Do not make the mistake of acknowledging newbie plays only when they benefit your argument - newbies exist and they make mistakes all the time, period. A speculation mistake is way, way less likely to come from a mafia than from a VT.

For example, being an early troll is often a PR scream and people fail to realize it, instead pressuring the guy for a scumtell that never existed in the first place. Moreover, if the setup allows it, it may lead mafia to miskill due to doctor wifom, a powerful asset that town could not use unless you PR speculate, since scums will just use their own assumptions (usually far better than town's, again due to better information access, especially n1).

My original post explaining this was #381.

[NotMySpamAccount]

I'm feelibg confident on Menalque-Creeper as the solve rn.

[Sushi Martyr]

I’d lean farkran town too

Basically I thought that farkran’s entrance was too scummy to be scum, and I don’t think that scum!him would prob be that confident to go for that strat in their first newbie

I'm kinda thinking exactly 1 scum in (farkran, emps)

@ Menalque: Can you walk me through your thought process/changing read on Farkran?

@Sushi - what do you think of my take on you?

You mean from 458? I think it's pretty accurate.

[NotMySpamAccount]

Fark, for future reference, claim when asked, and don't pr spec. The potential benefits are too risky for the payoff.

[teacher]

yeah I'm confident on creeper scum now.

Spam - thoughts on fark?

Spam - flesh out your creeper read?

reminder for this page that Fark is L-1

heres two questions for you Spammy.

[NotMySpamAccount]

yeah I'm confident on creeper scum now.

Spam - thoughts on fark?

Spam - flesh out your creeper read?

reminder for this page that Fark is L-1

heres two questions for you Spammy.

Farkbis town, skitters reasoning is good and I agree, tone also seems right. Creeper is bad on tone, and also his reaction test claim rang hollow. I can easily see newbscum seeing someone else (me) use it as reasoning for seemingly bad play and using the same excuse to cover themselves.

[Farkran]

Why the team with menalque though?

Also bedtime for me, i will unvote and resume tomorrow

UNVOTE: teacher

[teacher]

Why the team with menalque though?

Also bedtime for me, i will unvote and resume tomorrow

UNVOTE: teacher

Twice now you’ve unvoted me - why? Both time you’ve been th only vote, so it’s bit like I’m in danger of being the lynch. I had assumed last night to be you coming slightly off of scumreadjng me, so I saw the morning return as a bit of omgus. But now you do it again for no reson.

And which ten w Menalque - you or creeper?

[Farkran]

Twice now you’ve unvoted me - why? Both time you’ve been th only vote, so it’s bit like I’m in danger of being the lynch. I had assumed last night to be you coming slightly off of scumreadjng me, so I saw the morning return as a bit of omgus. But now you do it again for no reson.

And which ten w Menalque - you or creeper?

I usually don't leave votes when i'm leaving the discussion for several hours unless my vote is necessary for a lynch before day end (which is definitely not the case). This morning i had no reason not to revote you, i'll check again tomorrow morning.

Now i'm gone for good, g'night to everyone close to my timezone

[skitter30]

@Skit: I cant tell if its just cold feet with much time left to play or if youve moved Fark up to null or are even towning. Where are you?

I ask because if youre town, Menalque (the intent) seems like an odd switch rather than reevaluating your reads of me/emps/selynee?

i think he's awkward town who's ~different~ more than scummy, sorry i thought i made that clear

i think menalque is kinda trying to subtly kinda courage a hammer on him (encouraign emps to put him at l-2, the intent), which i dont' much like, that's why i think they aren't partners

selynee i am kinda rethinking, the main reason i was townreadign them earlier was for the fake hammer; i'm not sure scum do that on anyone but a partner. but i guess my problem in this game is that i have a lot of people i'm townreading and i haven't found much else town from them so like the townread isn't as strong in comparison to my other townreads, if that makes sense. so i guess still north of the null line but i'm rethinking it

i like your reads, but i'm getting ~slightly~ nervous of buddying tbh

emps still town i think

[Nexus]

Votecount 1.5:

Menalque (3) -

NotMySpamAccount, teacher, skitter30

Farkran (2) -

Seleynee, emps,

Not voting (4) -

Sushi Martyr, Menalque, EpicCreeper9002, Farkran

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. The deadline is at 9am BST on the 28th August 2019. (expired on 2019-08-28 09:00:00)

[Menalque]

I'm feelibg confident on Menalque-Creeper as the solve rn.

Protip: you shouldn’t be

[Menalque]

Imma talk through where I’m at later if I have time

[Menalque]

It is kinda funny that the two unvotes came from the two people I thought would definitely not unvote here tho, and I’m not sure if it’s AI or not

[EpicCreeper9002]

That's the problem. I'm having trouble looking deep into things the same way you guys do. I probably just need to try harder, but maybe it's not my thing.

As for Farkran not claiming, I don't really read that either way. I don't really see it as a valid play from either town or scum. I think he has a reason for it, but I have no idea what that could be.

how does a chat mafia game play out

So far it's actually been kind of the same as this game. Random votes happen, then other things happen that I've never really been able to understand.

That's the problem. I'm having trouble looking deep into things the same way you guys do. I probably just need to try harder, but maybe it's not my thing.

As for Farkran not claiming, I don't really read that either way. I don't really see it as a valid play from either town or scum. I think he has a reason for it, but I have no idea what that could be.

how does a chat mafia game play out

Mechanically, games are mostly the same. It's just the fact that here, we have so much more time to discuss, analyze posts, etc. Deadlines are measured in days instead of minutes. I've been assuming that makes a massive difference in play, but thinking about it, I guess it's not so different after all. I also realize now that the way I brought up my past was a bit misleading - I have a lot of experience, but that doesn't make me any better at the game. There are people from PS (that's my homeworld) who analyze things just as well as people here. Maybe the problem is I've been comparing everyone on this site to myself rather than other players from PS.

i mean ... does analysis happen in your chat mafia games? like i'm confused why having more time is hindering your ability to analyze here ... ? if anything i think it'd be easier since you aren't rushed?

Problem is I never really had the ability to analyze in the first place. In addition, there's more time to go over posts, but also a lot more to go over. Like I said, it might not really be so different from here after all.

yeah I'm confident on creeper scum now.

Spam - thoughts on fark?

Spam - flesh out your creeper read?

reminder for this page that Fark is L-1

heres two questions for you Spammy.

I'd like you to flesh out your read on me too, teacher. I've shown up pretty low on your recent list, and you seemed to turn against me around the same time as Spam did.

[Farkran]

Good morning again, everyone

And which ten w Menalque - you or creeper?

I think i have overlooked this question last night - are you implying either me or creeper could be menalque's partner? I'm not sure if i got the meaning of your post correctly - if i did, let me answer you real quick: i find both behaviors mostly townsided but i feel like creeper stopped even trying to be useful and instead went on full hiding behind the newbie shield which could be actual newbie scumtell rather than disinterested VT attempt at learning. I'd still say a lynch on him wouldn't help unless he flips mafia so i kinda want to stay aware of jumping on the train against him.

I still see teacher is very eager to jump on trains and i don't like this at all. I realize i may have entered sort of a tunnel vision state against him just as emps did with me but teacher is giving scumtells to me since gamestart, i'd be very surprised to see him not flip mafia in this game. Then again a lot of my townplayers are townreading him for reasons beyond my comprehension and i kinda want to refrain from tunnelvisioning him more while reanalyzing my thoughts looking from my townplayers pov instead - if you care to help me @selynee @skitter @emps @nmsa @menalque please tell me why you are so strong on teacher being town because it doesn't make any sense to me.

Sushi still highly sus and my current best match for a teacher/??? mafia team due to post 450, stalling on her teacher read while townreading me, despite none of sushi's townplayers are townreading me. Still sounds like strong buddying on me without any backup or proactive followup. Inclined to vote against her at this point.

However, @teacher @menalque i'd like your educated read on nmsa before i take any actions today, could you deliver?

Finally @everyone i'm thinking that menalque would be a good information sacrifice so far but i kinda don't like going where teacher is going at this point despite the train comp being 2 of my townplayers.

[Menalque]

Try to get me info lynched and see how that goes for you

[Selynee]

Actually, not sure teacher is town. More of a townlean. So far: your V/LA debate wasn't that informative, especially since you might have a different idea of what the term means. Game-related explanations- this is true but might be play style.I find their read on sushi to be...plausible. Has NMSA as town- I agree here with the fact that the reaction test most likely comes from town). I think their trajectory on Menelque actually makes sense reading it from the beginning of the game.

[teacher]

I'd like you to flesh out your read on me too, teacher. I've shown up pretty low on your recent list, and you seemed to turn against me around the same time as Spam did.

You’re an empty slot, but by choice not availability. You haven’t participated in the game. And you’ve resisted doing so when pushed.

I’ve expressed my thoughts on similar slots before:

(im good w/ your lynch......) “for a reason that seems callous -- if red, which I think is >rand, great. IF green, still not bad. I do believe in the 1:1 on and off wagon, so a green flip would have told me to reexamine my townreads. But given that [creeper] has not contributed any scumhunting OR (and the OR is in fact important here) claimed VLA to return at a date certain, even a green flip would have also removed a liability. This a lesson I learned a little later in my time on MS, but it makes sense to me. D1 and D2, you should of course try to scum hunt. But you should also get rid of town liabilities -- nullish folk that scum wont kill. Town liabilities should not make it to lylo because (1) they are an easy mislynch for scum to push and win the game, and (2) they havent been invested enough to have game-saving reads themselves.”

[teacher]

However, @teacher @menalque i'd like your educated read on nmsa before i take any actions today, could you deliver?

NMSA in my experience (two town games) plays lazy D1s. I’d ordinarily feel about the same as w Creeper without the experience - I’ve pushed their D1 lynch as a compromise both times in the past, and both times they have been town. Here, however, is not ordinary. They did proactive things - the reaction test, and among the first to direct attention to Creeper. I’m feeling better about this being town.

[teacher]

Good morning again, everyone

And which ten w Menalque - you or creeper?

I think i have overlooked this question last night - are you implying either me or creeper could be menalque's partner? I'm not sure if i got the meaning of your post correctly - .

You didn’t. I was asking you to clarify your 508 - who the question was to and what the question was about.

[teacher]

I still see teacher is very eager to jump on trains and i don't like this at all.

Ummmmm ..... show work please?
I have voted four times.

• Menalque in RVS - first on wagon and left it there because I found them scummy
  
• Creeper - first on wagon again, so not jumping on train
  
• you - admittedly fourth on wagon, but immediately after pushing against as you yourself noted (hardly eager?)
  
• back to Menalque - only second on wagon, and a slot I’d already expressed suspicions of.

How is this more eager than Emps (a developing TL putting you at L-1), or Skit (you/Menalque)? More generally, how do you expect a lynch to happen without working with your townreads to find a mutually- agreeable lynch and form a wagon?

[Menalque]

Hmm, I’m not sure I’ve seen you self-meta before teacher