Newbie 1953 | Zooborns IV | Game Over

[Farren]

Interesting kill.

I suspect that whoever mafia is, is banking on me having a “noob” mentality and taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist, since at that time they were the only one (besides Skitter) who has been against what I’ve been saying.

I’m interested to hear more about Farren’s read on Leuco, but I suspect that I will be one of the options to lynch.

I initially parsed your comment as "whoever mafia is, is banking on me ([having a “noob” mentality]

and

[taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist])..." which made no sense whatsoever and looked scummy. Guessing it's supposed to be parsed as "whoever mafia is, is ([banking on me having a “noob” mentality]

and

[taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist])..." which does make sense.

I would be surprised if scum was thinking of you at all when they made that kill. Mr Oobsy was an uncountered PR that - with Chemist dead - was now a significant threat to scum, as he could get both incontestable clears and hits. That alone is overwhelming justification to kill him and not anybody else. Trying to read anything else into it isn't going to be productive.

I'll address the Leuocsticte read in a separate post.

[Leucosticte]

I suspect that whoever mafia is, is banking on me having a “noob” mentality and taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist, since at that time they were the only one (besides Skitter) who has been against what I’ve been saying.

You voted for Chemist on Day 1 though, and then Chemist voted for you on Day 2. So, that makes you one of the townier people in the game, votewise.

(Dyrenz was town and voted for you, though. Hmm.)

So from my point of view it's:

Leucosticte:

towniest

skitter30:

second-towniest

Jamelia:

third-towniest

Micc and Farren:

tie for fourth-towniest

[Farren]

I suspect that whoever mafia is, is banking on me having a “noob” mentality and taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist, since at that time they were the only one (besides Skitter) who has been against what I’ve been saying.

You voted for Chemist on Day 1 though, and then Chemist voted for you on Day 2. So, that makes you one of the townier people in the game, votewise.

(Dyrenz was town and voted for you, though. Hmm.)

So from my point of view it's:

Leucosticte:

towniest

skitter30:

second-towniest

Jamelia:

third-towniest

Micc and Farren:

tie for fourth-towniest

Could you please explain why you have people in that order? What makes skitter your top read? What makes Micc and I your worst read?

[Farren]

First: how D2 went down.

At the start of D2, from the scum perspective, Mr Oobsy must have looked like a very tantalizing mislynch. He committed a flagrant violation of site protocol that clearly benefited scum and not Town, and the scum know he's not actually scum. Micc jumps on him right away. I follow suit, although I don't do so immediately. I wait until 36 hours have elapsed. Plotinus prods Mr Oobsy not too long after that; Mr Oobsy claims shortly thereafter; both Micc and I unvote.

Everyone else stands back, including scum|Chemist.

Not much here, I think. I know I'm not scum; Micc could be scum trying to get the obvious mislynch started, but just as plausible he's Town making another logical-but-wrong vote. Voting for a Town player who hammered Town without intent is pretty NAI.

[Jamelia]

Interesting kill.

I suspect that whoever mafia is, is banking on me having a “noob” mentality and taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist, since at that time they were the only one (besides Skitter) who has been against what I’ve been saying.

I’m interested to hear more about Farren’s read on Leuco, but I suspect that I will be one of the options to lynch.

I initially parsed your comment as "whoever mafia is, is banking on me ([having a “noob” mentality]

and

[taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist])..." which made no sense whatsoever and looked scummy. Guessing it's supposed to be parsed as "whoever mafia is, is ([banking on me having a “noob” mentality]

and

[taking out someone who was saying I was partners with Chemist])..." which does make sense.

I would be surprised if scum was thinking of you at all when they made that kill. Mr Oobsy was an uncountered PR that - with Chemist dead - was now a significant threat to scum, as he could get both incontestable clears and hits. That alone is overwhelming justification to kill him and not anybody else. Trying to read anything else into it isn't going to be productive.

I'll address the Leuocsticte read in a separate post.

Sorry. I meant it as, they were going to make it look like I would take out Oobsy since Oobsy was saying Chemist/I were partners. Then they can campaign “Well, since Jamelia is new and might not understand the meta, of course they would take out the 1 person who claimed them/Chemist were partners”.

[Farren]

Second part of D2.

Mr Oobsy states Chemist and Jamelia as scumreads; votes Jamelia.

I vote Leucosticte. Micc starts the wagon on Chemist.

So now things are up in the air.

At this point, there's no longer anything inevitable.

Jamelia mentions scumreading Oobsy. If Jamelia's scum, this seems like an oddball choice to make. Why focus his attention on you, especially when his backup read is your partner?

Of the two of Jamelia / Chemist, I'd say that Chemist was more scum-read by the Town. The last thing scum|Jamelia would want here would be more people piling on him - if scum|Jamelia dies, scum's odds really start looking horrible.

And Mr Oobsy's response to all this: he switches to Chemist.

Based on this, and what I read about Jamelia's read progression D1, I think Jamelia is Town.

[Farren]

Continuing with D2. After I interact with Chemist and see his false accusation on Jamelia, I switch over to him. Jamelia declares intent to hammer.

At this point, I'd say the hammer's getting close to inevitable, especially after Chemist "sigh"s and says nothing further.

Leucosticte then hammers, seemingly without being aware that he's doing so.

[Leucosticte]

Could you please explain why you have people in that order? What makes skitter your top read? What makes Micc and I your worst read?

Well, Mr Oobsy said Skitter didn't follow anyone on Night 1, when there was a kill. But Chemist could've been the killer, so I have to figure out how much weight I want to give that. Skitter didn't vote for Chemist on Day 2, so I have to take that into account as well.

Oh, I just noticed that Jamelia didn't vote for Chemist either on Day 2. Hmm, I need to come up with a weighting system.

E.g.:

__ points for being tracked but not seen visiting anyone on a night when there was a night kill and two scum left in the game
__ points for voting for someone turns out to be

scum

__ points for getting voted by someone who turns out to be

scum

-__ points for voting for someone who turns out to be

town

-__ points for getting voted by someone who turns out to be

town

The points get added up to determine one's overall

towniness

rating.

I have to adjust the points system, though, to reflect the fact that as time goes on,

scum

might have more knowledge about who the PRs or likely PRs are (due to, e.g., rolecopping), and therefore voting on later days to lynch someone who ultimately turns out to be a PR would look particularly bad.

According to this system, I look

scummier

from your perspective (or, if you're

scum

, you still have to pretend you think I look scummier) for voting for you on Day 1, but oh well. If you actually turn out to be

scum

, then I look even

townier

for having voted for you, so there's that tradeoff.

[Jamelia]

I think your chemist push is awful, and misrepy, and scummy

I also think this post from way back when we were first discussing Chemist’s posts is interesting.

I also didn’t vote for Chemist D2 because I was waiting to hammer. I voted for Chemist D1, even when the vote was still on Norwegian.

[Micc]

VOTE: Leucosticte

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

[Leucosticte]

Some might be like "Oh, if you're worried about seeming like

scum

, that means you're

scum

" but the reality is that if you're

town

, and you do something like vote for someone to get lynched who then turns out to be

town

, and then you get lynched the next day because of that, then at this point in the game, potentially your side loses.

[Leucosticte]

VOTE: Leucosticte

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

When you get some specifics, those would be appreciated.

[Farren]

Best example I can think of - final 3. Players A,B,C. C's scum, A and B are town. C votes for A. If B were scum, he could vote for A as soon as he saw it and clinch a scum victory. He sees the vote, posts something to show he saw the vote - but does not vote. B's mechanically cleared. Yeah, technically, B could be dumb as a rock and not realize the opportunity. Technically, B could be an utter jerk and deliberately want to drag the game out meaninglessly. But A should still treat B as if he was mechanically clear despite those two technical possibilities.

We just had something like this happen in a recent game of Werewolves (just concluded; it's why I'll probably be more active here now). I was a roleblocker, and roleblocked A the same night I was killed. B claimed the next day, "Hey, I got roleblocked by Leu last night, and that's why I couldn't protect Leu from dying, but I'm the doctor." A didn't notice he'd been roleblocked the night before, because he overlooked the message notifying him about it. Otherwise, he would've CC'ed.

Here's some context for evaluating Leucosticte's frame of mind.

He's just been in a game where a player did not meet a baseline of competent play - that player failed to check his messages from the mod and missed out on an opportunity to counterclaim scum. Being in a situation like that emphasizes the importance of meeting that baseline of competent play.

Yet Leucosticte then hammers.

Well you just hammered on chemist so

Oh, I thought he only had three votes.

This despite my post announcing L-1, Jamelia's post announcing intent to hammer, and every vote count Plotinus has posted today saying: "With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch."

This is not a credible mistake. Not with so many opportunities to see that it was a mistake. Not after seeing how D2 started after Mr Oobsy's hammer. Not after just posting about how missing things that a player should catch can hose people over.

As scum, though - Chemist is almost certainly doomed. There's credit to be earned from hammering. And he doesn't have to worry about the possibility of Chemist flipping Town and making himself look **really** bad in the process.

[Leucosticte]

skitter30:

second-towniest

For the time being, I stand by this analysis because I consider intel to be stronger evidence than voting patterns, and I consider voting patterns stronger evidence than behavior.

His voting record isn't that great, but that intel tho.

[Farren]

Well, Mr Oobsy said Skitter didn't follow anyone on Night 1, when there was a kill. But Chemist could've been the killer, so I have to figure out how much weight I want to give that. Skitter didn't vote for Chemist on Day 2, so I have to take that into account as well.

The reason why this mattered before is that skitter was highly unlikely to be Rolecop.

Chemist has flipped Rolecop now. It's not only likely but highly probable that Chemist made the kill N1 - it would make the Goon safe from tracking that night, while still allowing Chemist to use his Rolecop view.

I think it's safe to say that if the scumteam is composed of two SEs, they're not going to make a rookie mistake by needlessly doubling their exposure to Tracker hits when there's a 50% chance of a Tracker being present. Normally there'd be an argument that you could possibly explain away "Chemist visited X" but not "Chemist visited X and Y," but that argument no longer applies with the Friendly Neighbor exposed and scheduled for execution.

Mechanically, skitter's on the same level as everyone else now.

[Jamelia]

First: how D2 went down.

At the start of D2, from the scum perspective, Mr Oobsy must have looked like a very tantalizing mislynch. He committed a flagrant violation of site protocol that clearly benefited scum and not Town, and the scum know he's not actually scum. Micc jumps on him right away. I follow suit, although I don't do so immediately. I wait until 36 hours have elapsed. Plotinus prods Mr Oobsy not too long after that; Mr Oobsy claims shortly thereafter; both Micc and I unvote.

Everyone else stands back, including scum|Chemist.

Not much here, I think. I know I'm not scum; Micc could be scum trying to get the obvious mislynch started, but just as plausible he's Town making another logical-but-wrong vote. Voting for a Town player who hammered Town without intent is pretty NAI.

I was looking back at the Norwegian vote as well, and Micc immediately votes for them after you, leading to an L-1. I think it’s interesting that Micc/Chemist both voted for Leuco at the beginning. Since we now know that Chemist is maf, it makes sense to me that Micc could be mafia as well (if Chemist was following suit and trying to get a random mislynch going ASAP D1).

[Farren]

Oh, I just noticed that Jamelia didn't vote for Chemist either on Day 2. Hmm, I need to come up with a weighting system.

Jamelia declared intent to hammer. Most likely he would have voted for Chemist if the timer had expired. For weighting purposes, I would accord that the strength of a vote - unless Jamelia's timer expired and Jamelia failed to hammer on schedule.

More to the point, you were the one that prevented Jamelia from following through.

[Farren]

VOTE: chemist1422

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

VOTE: Leucosticte

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

Micc, why are you repeating yourself word for word here?

[Micc]

VOTE: Leucosticte

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

When you get some specifics, those would be appreciated.

I too have found myself in a situation where my partner is going down in flames, and proceeded to completely botch the bus. It's not an easy thing to get right.

Micc, why are you repeating yourself word for word here?

Since it worked once, I figured it would work again.

I thought it would be funny. But also that's how I feel right now.

[Farren]

Some might be like "Oh, if you're worried about seeming like

scum

, that means you're

scum

" but the reality is that if you're

town

, and you do something like vote for someone to get lynched who then turns out to be

town

, and then you get lynched the next day because of that, then at this point in the game, potentially your side loses.

This also accords nicely with what I was saying earlier. If you were Town hammering Chemist unawares, this shows you knew what the consequences would be of that mistake - should Chemist flip Town, which would make it a mistake. If you were scum hammering Chemist, then you knew Chemist would flip scum and wouldn't have to worry about it.

[Leucosticte]

Here's some context for evaluating Leucosticte's frame of mind.

He's just been in a game where a player did not meet a baseline of competent play - that player failed to check his messages from the mod and missed out on an opportunity to counterclaim scum. Being in a situation like that emphasizes the importance of meeting that baseline of competent play.

Yet Leucosticte then hammers.

The dude I was playing with in the other game had 80 games under his belt on that Werewolves platform. (I have 0 games under my belt on this platform.) Even so, he may not have played many games where he was dealing with a roleblocker, since it's not one of the core roles on that platform; and the roleblock message is not particularly obtrusive (it appears along with the notification of the night kill), so he may have just overlooked it. It's not the first time someone missed a roleblock message on there. It sucked and kinda diminished the satisfaction of the ending, but oh well, stuff happens. We'll be more on our guard against that next time.

Also, his move may have contributed to his side losing the game, because it was a piece of key intel. In this case, Chemist was just not being very responsive to people's questioning of him, even when he had votes being cast for him. I don't think waiting was really going to keep him from ultimately getting hammered, although maybe it would've drawn out

scum

to say something in his defense or otherwise try to save him.

Idk, the hammering probably shouldn't have happened the way it did, but on the other hand, had we waited, it's still technically possible that maybe people would've changed their minds and not lynched him. So, perhaps it ended up being for the best.

As scum, though - Chemist is almost certainly doomed. There's credit to be earned from hammering. And he doesn't have to worry about the possibility of Chemist flipping Town and making himself look **really** bad in the process.

And yet, Mr Oobsy voted Day 1 to hammer a

townie

, and Mr Oobsy turned out to be

town

. I voted Day 2 to hammer a

scum

, so that makes me even

townier

than Mr Oobsy, from a certain perspective. We can argue WIFOM all day about it, but that just goes in circles.

[Farren]

VOTE: Leucosticte

After a real brief review of some ISO's, I think this is the direction to go today.

When you get some specifics, those would be appreciated.

While you're waiting for those, you can address post 624.

[Jamelia]

I am more inclined to believe Micc is more scummy than Leuco at that moment.

[Leucosticte]

Which is it, Farren; was Chemist already doomed (and therefore hammering him was harmless), or was he not doomed (and therefore I'm

townier

for having put him out of misery when he still could've been saved from the rope)?

[Jamelia]

Which is it, Farren; was Chemist already doomed (and therefore hammering him was harmless), or was he not doomed (and therefore I'm

townier

for having put him out of misery when he still could've been saved from the rope)?

I think he was doomed since D1. There were plenty of distractions that day though. From Dyrenz’s RP spill to Norwegian/Oobsy drawing out conclusions that were just ultimately not true, we still had an underlying truth that Chemist had not adequately provided any reasons for their scummy behavior.

Micc pucks up on this BUT still votes for Norwegian. Then D2 immediately starts the vote on Chemist. Now D3 knows that Farren has been scum-reading Leuco for a while, starts the vote on them.

To me Micc is being opportunistic instead of analyzing what’s been happening.