Mini Normal 2098 - Game Over! (Mafia Won)

[profii]

I think I phone post over 95% of the time

It's the weekend which is one thing but we also have a relatively inactive player list which is another issue but hey ho


Looking back at Norgey boy his last few posts said he believed in Mohab which is kinda irrelevant for us moving forward

More to the point when I said let's keep it simple and vote Kraeg or Garmr he said yes let's go Kraeg

So obviously scum pick the kill so I want to kinda work out why, as that's just what i do but I'm a bit stuck as there are a few reasons:

1. By killing someone who recently voted Kraeg, do scum think we will revert back to a scum wagon?
2. Given the who PR thing, did they think Norgey boy was the real PR?
3. Given there may be some unknown protective/blocking PR did they throw a curveball to make sure it goes through
4. Did they intentionally aim at an active player to slow the game down and frustrate active town players?


Usually I'm quite decisive but I'm struggling to pick here
I dont think 1 and 4 would be the main reasons so I'm thinking a combo of 2/3 perhaps so I dont want to read too much into Kraeg on the basis of Norge dying


However... tbc, gonna grab some quotes

[profii]

...however...

A while back I pointed out a load of people were interested in voting Kraeg and if he is scum it would be unusual for so many players to have a matching scum read (especially without a slip of some kind)

Here is that list


1) Mohab500
2) Skellen
4) Garmr
5) Emperor FlippyNips
7) NorwegianboyEE

And also, here is the mohab wagon:

Mohab500 (5) - Billy Pilgrim, Kraeg, Luca Blight, Garmr, Mohab

We now know a couple of roles so let's cancel them out
Kraeg people:
Skellen
Garmr
EFN


Mohab people:
Billy
Kraeg
Luca
Garmr


Now the point here is not to go "look Garmr is always there!1!" At all

We dont know if Kraeg is scum so we dont know how likely scum are in the first 3 players
We know mohab was town so it is more likely that scum is in the 2nd pole
We should consider the claim/counterclaim scenario carefully to reassure ourselves garmr/kraeg is TvS as that will help


So let's do that last bit, particularly as Kraeg didn't die.
Firstly, duh, add a 5 to my list above "scum chose not to kill a PR claim to make town suspicious of his survival"

Obviously billy thinks a role blocker can stop the kill so if that's true scum either weren't scared of Kraeg or kraeg is scum - so if we decide hes town, let's look at his suspects to knock them off our lists

We then have Garmr who openly admitted to trying to force the lynch which I guess is understandable at the time but he also bottled it when in his mind weird things started happening

I think Garmrs point about not contesting the roles probably makes Kraeg more towny - for me kraeg has been fairly low profile so he is probably just sticking to what he knows (his own PM) and hoping the others will sort out Garmrs weird claim, allowing Kraeg to do his thing at night.

Now the whole act chapter of fake claiming then retracting. If you are scum I think you get away with pushing that lynch through and making up some JK stuff, worst case you slip on a PR but simultaneously out a PR so youd run with it, you wouldn't retract

So I'm kinda leaning TvT here

That means I'm looking at

Skellen
Flippy
-
Billy
Luca


This post is now long enough now...

[profii]

I want to hear from Skellen (though that will be after the weekend)

I can see Kraegs method of just trying to get his PR through the day and he seems to believe that a JK and RB would exist hence lack of fight

So does Skellen still consider Kraeg potential scum here


Obviously we can keep our fingers crossed that Kraeg aimed at someone and they then say their PR went through but we should be so lucky...

[Skellen]

Nah, you don't need to wait for the whole weekend. I am here, with one of the worst hangovers I can possibly have, but I am here. Kind of.

I want to delve into the analysis of the Mohab wagon, especially considering that the nk happened offside the wagon, but I will do that later when my head works properly. So I will just address some recent points of profii first.

I am not sure yet what to make out of the nk. On the surface the easiest answer is Norwegian was scumreading Kraeg and Billy and was willing to go through with it and one of them or both are scum and he died to have one accusant less. Otherwise Norwegian's reads aren't deviating much from the common reads as far as I can remember (personally I think I probably only disagreed about Luca). Haven't checked his ISO yet though.

Regarding the Roleblocker thing, I was dealing with it on D1 already when i tried to make sense out of the claim if the role looks plausible in a 9p setup and looked it up in the wiki. According to that it should be possible to block the nk, unless Jackal has somehow modified the role in some way. The important quotes are imo:

More simply - if the player has to submit an action to the moderator, a Roleblocker can block it.

Town

Generally, Roleblockers are intended to try to stop the Night-kill, or stop scum power roles in situations where they are known.

[Skellen]

So does Skellen still consider Kraeg potential scum here

Frankly yes, although I feel iffy with challenging an (now) not counterclaimed roleclaim.
To give some background to this, it hasn't been long that I got wrecked by scum fakeclaiming who dragged the resolution of the claim situation till lylo, although my first initial thought was that the role wasn't plausible and let me get talked out of it and ignored signals that I shouldn't have ignored. I tend to learn from my mistakes, so yeah, before I don't get any decent town pings by Kraeg I won't stop considering him as potential scum. His whole reactions since the counterclaim were just defensive what gives me the impression that he was just looking for survival (to be fair, you probably do that as town PR too), unfortunately we didn't see anymore what he would have thought of Garmr retracting his counterclaim.

I am not sure how much we can interpret from the Norwegian kill in regard to Kraeg, because if I go by his scumreads in #271 he was scumreading Garmr, Mohab and Norwegian. Two of these three have flipped town and Garmr, well... I don't know what his stance on Garmr is now after everything that went down during EoD1. But I mean, he looks bad with that, but I am not sure if he just looks bad or it is supposed to make him look bad. It kind of depends how Kraeg acts from here on.

...however...
I think Garmrs point about not contesting the roles probably makes Kraeg more towny -

This was actually a point I already disagreed about last day, but didn't had the time to address to. So walk me through this. I think that view might be possible, but is also too one-dimensional, because it isn't really considering the context of the counterclaim situation. Kraeg was almost a universal scumread while Garmr, who temporarily counterclaimed, was far more townread with some exceptions. Now tell me how often in 10 of 10 cases would Garmr win this 1v1 over Kraeg if Kraeg takes Garmr head on? Trying to come up with the explanation that both roles would be possible is probably the only slim chance that scum!Kraeg had to get out of it. To be fair, I am looking at this with my semi-newb point of view, because so far everytime there were similar or the exactly the same roles in a game (Fruit Vendors and informed as example) they always were one town and one scum, so imo the first reaction to a similar role (particularly such a powerful role) might be that it's more likely scum.
Also I don't know if I misunderstand #446, but he wasn't even considering Garmr as potential scum and thought it would have been a bad idea to counterclaim and that Garmr should even have protected him despite Garmr clearly scumreading him. I don't get the thought process.

[profii]

heh well i am saved from the pain of a hangover as i was just about to grab a beer but there is pepsi closer so i settled for that... my laziness is a blessing and a curse.

Anyway we have business to deal with I hadn't considered the kill being on/off wagon actually. I over-focussed on it being on / off the PR claim I guess. But yes I agree with your notes about his reads. And thanks for the help with the RB thing - i dont know why I thought it didn't stop a kill, maybe i played a game with some similar-ish role, i dont know. It's been a while since i played.

So I take your point that I am looking at it one-dimensionally, although I would probably say, I acknowledge the other dimensions, I've just picked one that works best in how i sort the game out perhaps.
Anyway, i take your point that Kraeg was almost certainly gone and offered minimal resistance but 446 is the response of when Garmr offers scum!kraeg the chance to say 'aha, see I told you I was town, this guy must be scum' - instead he goes 'well these roles could co-exist so what's everyones problem?!'

Like if I am scum in that position and I can divert some votes to another slot, then I go for it, I dont just roll over again and invite the lynch even more. So I kinda believe that Kraeg thought there was probably 2 PRs in the game, ergo I town read.

I do want to hear his interpretation of things though before I go too far

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
Kraeg (0) -
Billy Pilgrim (0) -

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Skellen, Billy Pilgrim, Kraeg, Luca Blight, Garmr, profii

ACTIVITY NOTES:
There have been no votes placed yet during Day 2.
Billy Pilgrim and Luca Blight are V/LA for the weekend
Prodding Kraeg and Emperor FlippyNips

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, September 27th at 7:45 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-27 07:45:00)

[Garmr]

VOTE COUNT 1.7

Mohab500 (1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (2) -

Garmr

, Emperor FlippyNips
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (1) - Kraeg

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500,

Skellen, profii
Billy Pilgrim (1) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight

ACTIVITY NOTES:
Luca Blight is V/LA through Monday, Sept 9
Skellen has been prodded.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

VOTE COUNT 1.8

Mohab500

(1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -

NorwegianboyEE

(1) - Kraeg[/color]

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500

, Skellen,

Garmr

Billy Pilgrim (0) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight, Emperor FlippyNips, profii

VOTE COUNT 1.13

L-1

Mohab500

(4) - Billy Pilgrim, Kraeg, Luca Blight,

Garmr

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (0) -
Kraeg (2) -

Mohab5

NorwegianboyEE

Billy Pilgrim (0) - 00,

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Skellen, profii

ACTIVITY NOTES:
All is good!

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

Hmm the first two are interesting. Me and profii are in the same position on two different vote counts but the situation is different.

Profii jumps off because of the roleclaim while I Jump on. I think skellen is town so from my pov the entire wagon on kreag is town. So profii should either be really suspicious of skellen or kreag since he seems to town read me. Becuase if kreag is town at the point Profii was on multiple people could of hammered and easily of used the excuse but Kreag roleclaim was scummy. Also while kreag himself acted like both roles could coexist so did Billy. While not what scum should do Kreag has been weird all game and I don't think we should treat him as standard.

There's atleast one scum on mohabs wagon. The candidates are kreag,Luca and billy. Kreags really starting to tick all the scum boxes on reflecting on how events played out.

VOTE: Kreag

Mod Edit: Fixed broken quote tags

[profii]

I'm coming round to the idea that Kraeg is scum
My worry is that if he flips town I'm going to think you (garmr) are scum so I'm worried scum have implanted a domino effect of mislynches in my brain and I just want to think it through before we go forward

[Billy Pilgrim]

VOTE COUNT 1.7

Mohab500 (1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (2) -

Garmr

, Emperor FlippyNips
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (1) - Kraeg

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500,

Skellen, profii
Billy Pilgrim (1) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight

ACTIVITY NOTES:
Luca Blight is V/LA through Monday, Sept 9
Skellen has been prodded.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

VOTE COUNT 1.8

Mohab500

(1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -

NorwegianboyEE

(1) - Kraeg[/color]

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500

, Skellen,

Garmr

Billy Pilgrim (0) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight, Emperor FlippyNips, profii

VOTE COUNT 1.13

L-1

Mohab500

(4) - Billy Pilgrim, Kraeg, Luca Blight,

Garmr

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (0) -
Kraeg (2) -

Mohab5

NorwegianboyEE

Billy Pilgrim (0) - 00,

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Skellen, profii

ACTIVITY NOTES:
All is good!

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

Hmm the first two are interesting. Me and profii are in the same position on two different vote counts but the situation is different.

Profii jumps off because of the roleclaim while I Jump on. I think skellen is town so from my pov the entire wagon on kreag is town. So profii should either be really suspicious of skellen or kreag since he seems to town read me. Becuase if kreag is town at the point Profii was on multiple people could of hammered and easily of used the excuse but Kreag roleclaim was scummy. Also while kreag himself acted like both roles could coexist so did Billy. While not what scum should do Kreag has been weird all game and I don't think we should treat him as standard.

There's atleast one scum on mohabs wagon. The candidates are kreag, Luca and billy. Kreags really starting to tick all the scum boxes on reflecting on how events played out.

VOTE: Kreag

Why are you so confident there's one scum on Mohab's wagon?

Mod Edit: Fixed broken quote tags

[profii]

Can we get a kraeg prod ?

Done, as stated in the VC 4 posts before this one. -Mod

[Garmr]

VOTE COUNT 1.7

Mohab500 (1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (2) -

Garmr

, Emperor FlippyNips
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (1) - Kraeg

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500,

Skellen, profii
Billy Pilgrim (1) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight

ACTIVITY NOTES:
Luca Blight is V/LA through Monday, Sept 9
Skellen has been prodded.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

VOTE COUNT 1.8

Mohab500

(1) - Billy Pilgrim
Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -

NorwegianboyEE

(1) - Kraeg[/color]

L-1

Kraeg (4) -

NorwegianboyEE, Mohab500

, Skellen,

Garmr

Billy Pilgrim (0) -

Not Voting: Luca Blight, Emperor FlippyNips, profii

VOTE COUNT 1.13

L-1

Mohab500

(4) - Billy Pilgrim, Kraeg, Luca Blight,

Garmr

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
NorwegianboyEE (0) -
Kraeg (2) -

Mohab5

NorwegianboyEE

Billy Pilgrim (0) - 00,

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Skellen, profii

ACTIVITY NOTES:
All is good!

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Friday, September 13th at 10:00 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-13 10:00:00)

Hmm the first two are interesting. Me and profii are in the same position on two different vote counts but the situation is different.

Profii jumps off because of the roleclaim while I Jump on. I think skellen is town so from my pov the entire wagon on kreag is town. So profii should either be really suspicious of skellen or kreag since he seems to town read me. Becuase if kreag is town at the point Profii was on multiple people could of hammered and easily of used the excuse but Kreag roleclaim was scummy. Also while kreag himself acted like both roles could coexist so did Billy. While not what scum should do Kreag has been weird all game and I don't think we should treat him as standard.

There's atleast one scum on mohabs wagon. The candidates are kreag, Luca and billy. Kreags really starting to tick all the scum boxes on reflecting on how events played out.

VOTE: Kreag

Why are you so confident there's one scum on Mohab's wagon?

Mod Edit: Fixed broken quote tags

You are saying both wagons are are all town and the entire scum teams is between swollen emperor numpty and profii.?

[Garmr]

wow the phone auto correct lol

[Jackal711]

Stating this explicitly because some people seem to have missed it in the VC:

Kraeg

and

Emperor FlippyNips

have been prodded.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Hiii

[Emperor flippyNips]

1. By killing someone who recently voted Kraeg, do scum think we will revert back to a scum wagon?

are you saying we’ll revert back to reading Kraeg as scumm? cos thats who I was thinking of going for. but tbf I’ve only read the
last 4 pages & haven’t iso’d him yet but from what I hear there isn’t much so that won’t take me long.

2. Given the who PR thing, did they think Norgey boy was the real PR?

in my opinion norg was killed to either make Kraeg look more sus. or
so we would go in circles and ultimately decide that scum were trying to just make him look bad.

3. Given there may be some unknown protective/blocking PR did they throw a curveball to make sure it goes through
4. Did they intentionally aim at an active player to slow the game down and frustrate active town players?

I do think 4 is very possible too. it allows them to be more inactive and run with it. or post a bunch and be the “town leaders” so to speak.

am I leaning the town leader side? no not really. thats a lot harder then killing off the most active. and profi being the biggest tr either makes him scum or to obvious of a kill. & I think I’m leaning the latter

[Emperor flippyNips]

but if the scum team is billy/profi it shouldn’t be to hard for some scum theater right? especially with no one else giving much input

[Emperor flippyNips]

Emperor FlippyNips

have been prodded.[/color]

I have been failing you




oh the

[profii]

So if you were going back to Kraeg and you also think scum killed norge to make Kraeg look suspicious, that simultaneously infers he is town

Once you've thought that through walk me through it

[Emperor flippyNips]

the other thing I was saying was they did it cos is so obvious that town would end up being like wow thats too obvious for Kraeg as scum to make this kill so he’d get TR for it. or his parter is acting alone & did it & plans on busing the fuck out of Kraeg. or I’m wrong & he really is just town

[Emperor flippyNips]

gonna be a little less active. gots to go get ready to go. I’ll be on mobile tho so talk to me people

[profii]

So you are saying you think Kraeg is town here?

Who are you saying is scum

[Kraeg]

Will be posting in a while

[Kraeg]

There's actually a lot of combinations the mod can make for a setup. Any combination of roles is possible as long as the whole setup is balanced so I don't think a JK and an RB in one setup is far from happening.

But Garmr has already retracted his claim. Are we still taking that into consideration?

And I thought profi will be confirmed as Inno Child today. I didn't see that happen.

[Kraeg]

I'm going to go for LAL today. I understand Garmr was trying to drive everyone to lynch me by lying as the JK. It's very unnecessary considering the fact that the reason for lynching me was weak. The whole wagon was hinged on a gut feeling. It's not like Garmr is a Cop who got a Guilty result on me for him to drive everyone that way. Besides, he was claiming JK.

So for me LAL

VOTE: Garmr