Mini Normal 2098 - Game Over! (Mafia Won)

[Skellen]

Ah nevermind, I guess it's just me and Billy who are left anyway. Well, I am VT.

[Skellen]

I can buy the Masons claim, I was starting to wonder where profii's strong townread on Luca was coming from considering it was based on some kind of intuitive read or because of similar thinking. Well, that explains it indeed.

Having Luca cleared makes things easier by a lot. Basically it negates the only plausible scumteam that I could see when the Garmr/Kraeg claim situation was TvT. Technically by PoE Billy/flippy can be possible, but as I pointed already out I still feel they both would have acted differently than they had. Will proofread just in case.

Going by the newbie queue formula three PRs look too much for a 9p game. So we would have two conftownies and one role that can block the nk and basically create a hard guilty when no kill happens. Yeah, this looks too strong. I don't see any synergy between Masons and Roleblocker anyway. I mean Billy has yet to claim, but I think with the Masons claim Kraeg's claim is just bs here.

[profii]

oh that's why you believed in Lucas case on me day 1 despite it being shit. I can buy that.

Who is next in line with the massclaim?

I'll be honest I dont think I read the case, I just said he must be town or whatever

[Billy Pilgrim]

Wow you folks must all live in England. I went to bed after like 7 hours of Flippy being the last poster asking Profii to get himself confirmed.

I'm VT.

So
Garmr - claimed VT
Flippy - claimed VT
Skellen - claimed VT
Billy - claimed VT

Luca - claimed Mason with Profii
Profii - claimed Mason with Luca

Kraeg - claimed town roleblocker

Ok I think a fake Mason claim by scum outside of LYLO is just suicide. A roleblocker here looks like town may have too much power, but maybe a mafia roleblocker could even that up, I don't know. Why is town roleblocker a fake claim though? I liked Garmr's explanation earlier that it was his mafia role and he just called it town, but if he's a mafia roleblocker everyone is VT and there's 2 Masons then that setup doesn't make sense.

Luca already held out. Is anyone else holding back their real role? I'm VT. I don't care how many times we claim, that's my role. If I die, that will be my flip. I'm trying to make sense of this game, and I don't understand why scum would fakeclaim town roleblocker, or why two scum would fakeclaim Mason's together 1 day before LYLO. I feel like someone has to be holding back.

I also wish we'd have forced this earlier, but Kraeg who did you RB?

[Billy Pilgrim]

Amusingly luca tried to copy my reads... it came across unnaturally and you picked up on it but I just had to support luca

this makes the game so much easier actually
UNVOTE: kreag
if no one claims a active role that would confirm kreag as town btw im vt.

Why'd you unvote?

VOTE: Kraeg

I don't think I'm going to get an answer to my question from the previous post (but I would like it, you may be contributing to a mis-lynch by not claiming here, because my vote is based on setup analysis) and because a roleblocker doesn't make sense in a setup with masons I think that's a fakeclaim. Also, that's L-2.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (1) - Kraeg
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
profii (0) -
Kraeg (2) - profii, Billy Pilgrim
Billy Pilgrim (0) -

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Skellen, Luca Blight, Garmr

ACTIVITY NOTES:

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, September 27th at 7:45 am PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-09-27 07:45:00)

[Billy Pilgrim]

Nevermind, it's L-3.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Ok, anyone else wanna weigh in here? Come-on folks let's play some mafia.

[profii]

So I'm pretty sure EFN is scum

It makes no sense for scum to have a RB with no other PRs, nothing for them to block and it seems unfair that they have a misleading PR so I'm going back to my original theory that too many people wanted a Kraeg lynch day 1

I'm fairly certain Billy was showing genuine paranoia pre-claim so I'll call him town

So then we have Garmr who sabotaged a mislynch on Kraeg - I will re read this slot that is crazy for scum

Which means my feeling that skellen is allowing town tov wander into that Kraeg mislynch is right

VOTE: EFN

If kraeg could RB skellen tonight as well that would be super

[Billy Pilgrim]

So I'm pretty sure EFN is scum

It makes no sense for scum to have a RB with no other PRs, nothing for them to block and it seems unfair that they have a misleading PR so I'm going back to my original theory that too many people wanted a Kraeg lynch day 1

I'm fairly certain Billy was showing genuine paranoia pre-claim so I'll call him town

So then we have Garmr who sabotaged a mislynch on Kraeg - I will re read this slot that is crazy for scum

Which means my feeling that skellen is allowing town tov wander into that Kraeg mislynch is right

VOTE: EFN

If kraeg could RB skellen tonight as well that would be super

This is a fairly compelling theory. RB would be a weaker jl so as to only block the NK. 3prs is pretty strong though even though 2 are masons. Particularly since 2 Masons is in the new newbie 2d3 setup and balanced with both 2 goons and a Mafia RB. And actually that makes sense for Kraeg scum. Is anyone going to claim any other PRs? Because a Kraeg scum flip may make Garmr scum here when he changed his original bussing strat for town cred. Whereas a Kraeg town flip may make Profii's theory correct.

I am gonna keep my vote on Kraeg for now. I swear if anyone is holding back a town PR, it may easily cause a mis-lynch today.

[profii]

So you are saying we could be in A3 of the newbie setup and the mod just hasn't told us - which explains the seemingly nonsensical scum rb?

I dunno man. It's all mechanical and not based on play

[Skellen]

It makes no sense for scum to have a RB with no other PRs, nothing for them to block and it seems unfair that they have a misleading PR so I'm going back to my original theory that too many people wanted a Kraeg lynch day 1

This is assuming he is a Roleblocker to begin with. For all we know he could be a Goon that is fakeclaiming Roleblocker for pure survival, although admittedly the choice is odd. The very fact that he was refusing to out his rb target from N1 pre-massclaim rather indicates that he is lying, because there could have been the risk that he actually picks a PR that could immediately disprove him. Like I don't see why he wouldn't out his N1 target, it wouldn't confirm anything, but it wouldn't do any harm either.

Look, what makes it more likely that Town Roleblocker + 2 Masons work here? I know this is all mechanical, but what kind of power is scum supposed to have to counter that? It would just need a D1 scum lynch and technically with the right rb the other scum is caught right after the first night. That is swingy as hell.

Considering too many people want to see him getting lynched, he somehow always get away despite doing nothing. No substantial reads, mostly self-centered posts, justifying himself, partly with weird phrasing, ever since he claimed EoD1 or now on D2.

[Skellen]

Particularly since 2 Masons is in the new newbie 2d3 setup and balanced with both 2 goons and a Mafia RB.

Ah cool, since when got the newbie queue new setups? But yeah, it's kind of interesting, although I don't get the idea behind the latter constellation. However these new setups are from the same guy as this game's setup. That would rather indicate that a Town Roleblocker seems very unlikely here, athough I don't necessarily think we are in the same setup.
Anyway I see no point to run in circles when the big elephant in the room has still done nothing that would indicate town and the result of the massclaim just adds fuel to it.

VOTE: Kraeg

[Billy Pilgrim]

So you are saying we could be in A3 of the newbie setup and the mod just hasn't told us - which explains the seemingly nonsensical scum rb?

I dunno man. It's all mechanical and not based on play

That's definitely a possibility. And yes, it is

mostly

mechanical, but not entirely. If we're in A3, it would explain why Garmr moved from hard defending Kraeg early D1 to literally running a fakeclaim Gambit to get him lynched. If you remember, Kraeg's roleblocker claim was out there for a while before Garmr fakeclaimed. So he could have been pretty sure that no one else was going to fakeclaim. So it could have been a bussing Gambit that he ran when it looked like Kraeg was going down.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Particularly since 2 Masons is in the new newbie 2d3 setup and balanced with both 2 goons and a Mafia RB.

Ah cool, since when got the newbie queue new setups? But yeah, it's kind of interesting, although I don't get the idea behind the latter constellation. However these new setups are from the same guy as this game's setup. That would rather indicate that a Town Roleblocker seems very unlikely here, athough I don't necessarily think we are in the same setup.
Anyway I see no point to run in circles when the big elephant in the room has still done nothing that would indicate town and the result of the massclaim just adds fuel to it.

VOTE: Kraeg

I think this is L-1. No lolhammers. Intent then we discuss.

Anyone holding back a PR?

[Skellen]

VOTE: Kraeg
Also, that's L-2.

Kraeg (2) - profii, Billy Pilgrim

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Nevermind, it's L-3.

VOTE: EFN

VOTE: Kraeg

I think this is L-1.

Billy's adventures in the wonderful world of numbers.

It's actually L-2. Two votes on Kraeg with profii changing his vote to flippy.

[Skellen]

That's definitely a possibility. And yes, it is

mostly

mechanical, but not entirely. If we're in A3, it would explain why Garmr moved from hard defending Kraeg early D1 to literally running a fakeclaim Gambit to get him lynched. If you remember, Kraeg's roleblocker claim was out there for a while before Garmr fakeclaimed. So he could have been pretty sure that no one else was going to fakeclaim. So it could have been a bussing Gambit that he ran when it looked like Kraeg was going down.

I am not sure I get you right here, but aren't you assuming that scum would know the setup then? That aside this looks super risky, particularly if Kraeg would have gotten hammered before Garmr could have retracted his claim and well, obviously would have survived the night.

[Garmr]

Been mulling over this

VOTE: Kreag

If kreag is scum then this is the best vote if kreag is town then his going to fuck up in mylo if we get there and mislynch me. His a liability to town no matter what alignment.

[Billy Pilgrim]

VOTE: Kraeg
Also, that's L-2.

Kraeg (2) - profii, Billy Pilgrim

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Nevermind, it's L-3.

VOTE: EFN

VOTE: Kraeg

I think this is L-1.

Billy's adventures in the wonderful world of numbers.

It's actually L-2. Two votes on Kraeg with profii changing his vote to flippy.

Yeah, I'm awesome with the maths.

[Billy Pilgrim]

That's definitely a possibility. And yes, it is

mostly

mechanical, but not entirely. If we're in A3, it would explain why Garmr moved from hard defending Kraeg early D1 to literally running a fakeclaim Gambit to get him lynched. If you remember, Kraeg's roleblocker claim was out there for a while before Garmr fakeclaimed. So he could have been pretty sure that no one else was going to fakeclaim. So it could have been a bussing Gambit that he ran when it looked like Kraeg was going down.

I am not sure I get you right here, but aren't you assuming that scum would know the setup then? That aside this looks super risky, particularly if Kraeg would have gotten hammered before Garmr could have retracted his claim and well, obviously would have survived the night.

Not really. I think Kraeg could have been fake-claiming his or his partner's scum role. Claimed townroleblocker when either he or his partner is mafia roleblocker.

I think when it made it as long as it did without getting counterclaimed and sort of hanging out there that maybe Garmr decided to cc him as jk as a hard bus. If that Lynch goes through he would have been able to ride that for the town cred. When the Lynch went through, Garmr decided it would be better to keep his teammate alive and walked back from the Cliff. Then the Mohab thing was almost instant.

So no, I don't think scum needed to know the setup for the play to have gone down the way it did.

[Garmr]

yeah I think it's obvious I'm not on a scum team with kreag. Please dont go full mohab on us never go full Mohab.

[profii]

Been mulling over this

VOTE: Kreag

If kreag is scum then this is the best vote if kreag is town then his going to fuck up in mylo if we get there and mislynch me. His a liability to town no matter what alignment.

I agree but

And this is an important but

If he is town pr and we can remove 1 scum we can stop kills more easily

[profii]

Skellen is also right- the scenario where we do block kills is rather swingy

Kinda feel like I just hammer here, what's the point in intent on a slot we knownthenclaim of who wouldn't tell us his target and even if he does and he is town it is meaningless anyway as it could be scum that didn't kill

Consider this intent for now but I'll hammer v soon

[Garmr]

I am not sure what Billy shakeness means. I mean his trying to sell me now as kreag scum partner.

[Luca Blight]

I think Kraeg needs to be lynched for this game to progress. I'm having a hard time seeing him as Town here anyway.

Will hammer in a few hours, so get your final thoughts in before then.