Magical Girls UPick - Heart of Shadow (Game Over)

[Tana and Ephraim]

I suppose I should factcheck Not!RCRaybells's townreads before I commit to anything.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I think that if we do confirm that HH is scum then any sort of townread on CS for the motivate flies out the window because that's the exact kind of play that NotRCRaybells!scum sets up.
I really ought to set up clearer terminology but I don't think anyone really understands the point I'm getting at by differentiating, so.

[Tana and Ephraim]

Alternative take on CW is that rather than look at the overrepresented players, we look at the underrepresented and HH/RcE are both at a resounding zero.

[Tana and Ephraim]

Not that this is super useful given reads that already exist but the two reads by CW on Titus and LE feel like TMI townreads that would be legitimately on town.

The Pops one is really eh and it was scumread before but I also think it's very plausible as a read that he generates on a slot that is 'beard'ing him in Titus terminology.

[Bitmap]

@RC: What's the percentage chance that someone is scum when they discredit your reads on other players? I did it when I was scum and you were town that one game so I'd assume it's high. HH's play around you has been basically discrediting a lot of reads you've had.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I think that's more MariaR's general perspective of me indicative than scum indicative even though I think that she's scum. (It's true in general and I end up discussing it later.)
Why I think she's scum is actually hugely based on her interactions with me but for different reasons and I'll try to explain that even though I think it's a hard explanation to do justice to from not!myPoV

So, you're Maria. Your previous game with me was Gameshow Mafia, which is hard to do justice in words but like...

1) The game was OBSCENELY, STUPIDLY townsided.
2) I mislynched MariaR very cleanly and suffered very little from it.
3) The entire dead thread got to communicate with the last living townie at the end.
4) The entire dead thread had essentially spoilers because one of the scum outed me in dead, knowing this.
5) I was voted in LyLo by conftown.

In spite of all this, I got conftown to unvote me and vote scum instead and I won that LyLo and that game. It was legitimately like 95-5 townsided.
In fact, in both of my large theme scum games I heavily manipulated people

into

paranoia reading me because it justifies both my mislynches and my continued survival.
She has been privy to me making comments about the role of paranoia in keeping me alive in circumstances like that.

Now, for her to come into this game as town and say that RC is going to self resolve as scum because he's going to get paranoia lynched incredibly strains credulity.

It strains credulity because how the fuck does she believe it after everything she's seen me do.
It strains credulity because she already knows that saying stuff like that isn't going to keep me alive as town but is going to help me if I'm scum.
It strains credulity also because Sakura Hana was obviously town regardless of your thoughts on my head personally.

You flip things and you instead ask yourself what would lead to this post if she's scum and it makes a ton of sense as an approach to the game.
1) If she knows that she's planning to kill me anyway (hint: she is) then she doesn't have to be as worried about a long term negative response from me for not townreading me.
2) Saying that I'm self resolving prevents her from having to fake a read on a player that is exceptionally complex to read and as cited above, if I'm going to die anyway it is in fact self resolving.
3) People universally expect to get townread for taking potshots at me. People universally townread people taking potshots at me, even when the same players as scum have already expressed that they would probably get townread for taking potshots at me. There's a lot of motivation in being the one person refusing to townread me.***

I believe I already addressed the "cops and vigs are going to sort lurkers in a RC/Maria/Katsuki/LLD" lobby which also strains credulity for a lot of reasons.
I'm not in the mood to broadly address other aspects of their game that I have a read on with Maria specifically because this is actually my main thing with Maria.
With the slot as a whole I just independently scumread pretty much everything that Nine posts, and for reasons that I think are highly applicable to them.

Regarding the RcE partner theory, I think that one of her super exaggerated interactions as scum is always another scum and it's the only one that makes sense.
I also independently scumread both as well as the interactions from RcE side so it seems like a pretty safe read.
I'm more sure in HH as of right now, though.


*Seriously. There's this idea floating around that antagonizing me is towny because why would scum do it. In reality, scum universally and systematically attempt to either discredit or mislynch me in every single game that I play without exception. They always bring up this idea that they're going to get townread for it. It happens a LOT from scum and significantly less from town.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I believe this is a somewhat unpopular opinion at this stage of the game but I believe that Dannflor feels town in a way that I'm not surprised he's not a universal townread.

[popsofctown]

It's a game where I'm townreading everything, so I had to scumread Dannflor

I'm pretty willing to sheep that instead RC

[Tana and Ephraim]

Happy scumday pops!
-Tana

[popsofctown]

Thanks Sakura Hana

It might be more special than my birthday tbh

[Tana and Ephraim]

Healer Helpers

Tana and Ephraim
Sailor Senshi
Lady Eventide
gameplay506
Bitmap

Pyro Assistant

Lady Lambdadelta
popsofctown

Training School

Titus
Chaos Wind
Katsuki
Croag
Cafe Stile

Dropouts

Dannflor
DrDoLittle
Gamma Emerald

User of dark magic

RCEnigma

the best mathematical way to determine Maria's alignment is to see how many scum versus town are voting her when she gets wagoned
when she's scum her entire scumteam are always on the wagon, when she's town usually she's getting wagoned by town and scum are just letting it happen

You know, this isn't even wrong.
Let's talk about RCEs hop on me.
We already knew Gamma was gonna do it because of Gamma's behavior problem.

How about we don't lynch LE?

@LE I'm fine with DDL

I get wanting to lynch someone to get the day over with and how the wagon would have a ton of information cause I've been there. But, let's not lynch the 1 slot that we can get a ton of info on by them being nice and clear. Yeah? Seems good to me!
VOTE: DDL

Also, how does Maria end up voting DDL right after her top scumread votes DDL?
She doesn't even address that read again for the rest of the day phase.

Particularly when you combine it with the Cafe Stiles commentary in twilight where he calls the wagon scum which makes sense with scum actively pursuing a contrary strategy.
@Katsuki, do you remember the actual vocal tones game where we all townblocked and all of us were voting the ONE town and scum were refusing to hammer?
Cuz I'm kinda feeling the same thing having been the situation with LE yesterday.

[Tana and Ephraim]

Also, like all of the jump ons to DDL from the people I don't like in that area are so feelsbad.
They really do feel like this was a strategy they discussed in a scum PT as opposed to any sort of organic development of votes.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I wonder if it signals DDL as scum deliberately being a counterwagon voted by scum.
I should give that a closer look.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I still really really really want to stab Cafe Stiles with pointy objects.

[Tana and Ephraim]

RcE is definitely the least

meta defining

of my reads and I can maybe see him as town but let me think about that.

[Bitmap]

Also, like all of the jump ons to DDL from the people I don't like in that area are so feelsbad.
They really do feel like this was a strategy they discussed in a scum PT as opposed to any sort of organic development of votes.

So you think scum realized that LE was going to be lynched no matter what?

[Tana and Ephraim]

Look how LAMIST I am

So you think scum realized that LE was going to be lynched no matter what?

I 100% think that this is what scum were thinking at the time.

[Tana and Ephraim]

[DDL/HH/CS] is an interesting solve that I'm currently mulling over.

[Hidden Happiness]

Maria isn't the one that hates you and your reads actually. We've been signing our posts so I'm surprised you can't tell that. Maria literally hasn't looked at this game since yesterday b/c of college.

[Hidden Happiness]

You systematically discredit and eliminate anyone that even slightly disagrees with you and it helps you win both town and scum games because people learn its less effort to question you even if they lose, and on average you're town more often then scum so totes win-win for everyone! You're incredibly unpleasant to watch in action both as a spectator and a player. You really don't seem to care that you made a newbie's first experience on this site monstrous because you were a dick to her for no reason and rushed a lynch just to prove yourself right. The best part about this is that I'm never going to experience this again because I'll never agree to be in another Mafia game with you until you stop playing by making other people miserable.

- Nine

[Sailor Senshi]

Jeez

-Merc

[Tana and Ephraim]

On a game level: everything that I am talking about is referring to stuff that happened on Day 1 rather than Day 2. I don't think there's readable content from your slot on D2.

you really don't seem to care that you made a newbie's first experience on this site monstrous because you were a dick to her for no reason and rushed a lynch just to prove yourself right.

I played a game to win. I had an incorrect scumread, and I lynched that incorrect scumread. And was wrong. That's mafia. That's life.
I reconsidered several times, including once on confirmed scum and almost certainly at least a few more times on other scum.
You assert that I ruined the game for her. I don't deny that it's possible that I made her experience worse by tunneling her.
But I never attacked her behind the screen. I said multiple times I was really sorry if she was town. I explained why I felt the way I did, even if it took until twilight.
You're acting like I did something wrong and I invite you to explain exactly what it is that I did wrong that doesn't boil down to being wrong on someone who took it badly.

You systematically discredit and eliminate anyone that even slightly disagrees with you and it helps you win both town and scum games

Also this is a really silly thing to say for reasons that I don't believe I should have to be the one to respond to.

[Tana and Ephraim]

I've started and then deleted several different tangents explaining why you were wrong about things that you've said about me and how it's not hard to figure them out.
I instead reached the conclusion that I don't actually care about your opinion about me because it's based on you not knowing anything about me and saying that you do.

I wish for optics reasons that I had placed this vote earlier but I still think it's the highest odds of flipping scum and I'm not gonna not vote this.

VOTE: HH

[Tana and Ephraim]

You really don't seem to care that you made a newbie's first experience on this site monstrous because you were a dick to her for no reason and rushed a lynch just to prove yourself right.

But really I can't see how you make this post from a non-scum point of view. Lynching people to prove yourself right?
You lynch anyone because you think that they're scum. I lynched LE because I thought that they were scum.

[popsofctown]

I think RC's comment telling Bitmap to trust others and not think for himself is arguably out of line, but that his push on LE was all in-game and I didn't see anything even borderline. She joined the newbie queue fwiw