Micro 891 - Death List (Game Over)

[popsofctown]

There will always be a lynch. Scum can kill by manipulating the list during the night.

You do know scum can only do this once right? I should make it clear for you humans just so you don’t get confused

They can pick one and do it again and again. Like being too dumb to learn different types of magic. It's never fun when a game's too easy

@Mod: The mafia can shuffle more than once per game if they reuse the same type of shuffle method, can they not? That's my reading of "method"

Locke113 or whatever his name is had a pretty bland catch up. I mean, the questions were weak along with a bit of filler. I wouldn’t mind if his name was at the very top of the list at the moment.

Yeah, he can burn. I'd rather punish a past playmate I know can play better like Elements, but I shouldn't spare Locke for making me smile over a joke. Only mercy if he makes me smile by starting good corpsefire.

HALF->REVERSE->SKIP

VOTE: HALF

Anyone who does this should say who they’re trying to lynch and let die. Because you do know whoever gets second of that list will die at the end of the night correct? How careless are you people?

I think it seems like Nymph doesn't think hard about how the magic works. But if they were scum I think they'd think harder. Scum have to think "who's the second person, are we friends?" I think Nymph doesn't have any friends. But that's why they can be my friend

what style?

I think I'm fine letting Pops/Nymph live to the next round so far. They seem useful in my cause.

I think we've become interested in pretty different games by now. In Role Call I threw many a tantrum for playing my games by my rules. That makes me worried what you really want is to beat me at hide and seek again

VOTE: Pair

This would leave Lock out right? Then reverse killing Lock/Azure. I think I'm fine with that right now

I've only had Azure for five minutes, but if anything happened to her I would set you on fire, then

Skip: Rope

in front of GuyInFreezer until everyone died.
You quote things from her I know you should think are "wrong but town" and I think you should be able to learn more. Can you even try to think like a human?

[popsofctown]

it's mentally exhausting


but somehow addicting

[Donempire]

Well have fun with this then, cause im not gonna burn myself out at school just to come back to this

[Dunnstral]

If you think that miscounting the mechanic is scum indicative for me, why did you not come after me when I accidentally selfvoted on page two or so?

You didn't self-vote because it requires 3 shuffles to end the day. What happened was you thought you self voted, but without the knowledge that you thought it only took 1 shuffle to end the day there was nothing for me to "come after".

Do you still not understand the mechanic?

I noticed in Crown on the Ground I have to vote you to get you out of your shell sometimes, so I wouldn't expect you to be so surprised by a Dunnstral vote in a lower information phase of the game.

It looks less like you're sorting and more like you're pretending to be town to me.

I finished writing a c program that sims this game's mechanic.

I'm gonna keep guessing combinations of 3 things and see if I can figure out a combination mutations that lynches dongempire and makes azuresky bulletproof.

The players that go into the night in the positions 3, 5, 7, and 8 are all unable to be killed in 1 action

Those are the numbers when there's still 9 alive, so our numbers for today.

To a certain extent we can manipulate who gets killed at night.

As for your inquiry, that would be HALF -> REVERSE -> SKIP, just looking at those two.

[Dunnstral]

I forgot about the undo action so I'm probably wrong above on some of those numbers, but some of those should be safe still

[Dunnstral]

unless of course, the last action is skip - then they're can't undo anything, and I think we only need 2 actions to kill most if not everyone here

Also:
]uv][/uv]

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

[Elements]

The players that go into the night in the positions 3, 5, 7, and 8 are all unable to be killed in 1 action

there will only be 8 tonight.
The actual numbers will be: 3, 4, 6, 7. Excluding undo and assuming I can count.

[Locke113]

Spoiler: Day1

Nymph, where on Earth did you go?

#11 was her first post right? curious what you like about the post, beyond the fact that its very entertaining?

Curious could you elaborate on what makes Hectic v Nymph look TvS to you?

As I said before in the quote, I usually find rvs posts like "im town again" or "thank god im not scum" to be genuine. This isn't always true obviously, but I tend to believe it.

Curious could you elaborate on what makes Hectic v Nymph look TvS to you?

Just how I see their posts in relation to each other.

Both of these responses feel kinda flimsy tbh, however I can't really argue with gut on the second one. Just a feeling imo. Especially flimsy considering if MariaR was being genuine in #11, that doesn't immediately indicate town, "Ugh, I hate the forces of good." could mean either I hate being town or I hate town because I am scum. Plus you have to consider the whole persona she's got going on which makes it even harder to determine such a thing as genuineness of the player vs genuineness of the persona

I'm going to sheep this because I think this is good.

HALF->REVERSE->SKIP

VOTE: HALF

That is the first time someone has expressed a desire to sheep my read, then immediately voted me
Thank you GiF for bringing us this magical setup.

Since we don't know what the mafia might do at night and any of our reads might be wrong, I think it's going to be best to pick transformations one by one. It is not possible for the mafia to go in 5 player LyLo and become impossible for us to lynch one of them even if we have both of them identified.
Using the votecount to show where you are is always a good idea, though.
I'm going to VOTE: Pair, which is a Dunnstral vote; I think that's the most likely of the 4 lynchable players to flip scum. They're all pretty close, except for the one whose role PM I can view.

But I think it's important to keep sorting all 9 slots.
Not excited by dongempire's reaction right away on that topic.

@Elements: Why are you saying "I think we should do at least one rearranging of the list"? I noticed "Skip" is the only option we can do that reduces scum's agency, actually, whereas every other option gives them the choice of selecting "Undo", "Undo" is identical to not submitting anything if we skip. Why are you drawing the opposite conclusions from me about the mechanics here?

you're reasoning for wanting to lynch Dunn seems pretty weak, especially considering we can definitely lynch more than 4 players

Pops, please stop using wishy washy wording like "not impressed" or "not thrilled" or "not excited" or any variations of that. It really doesnt bode well, especially since you consider yourself an "above average player" and yet you cant wagon a mere SE player.

This, never a big fan of language like this if its never backed up by more concrete pressure like a vote

[Locke113]

sshit why did I say day1, rather than the page number, I'm stupid, but also hey I got the spoiler tag working this time, I'm bracing myself for everyone's applause

[Locke113]

Spoiler: Page6

I can't wagon you in a literal sense, you're literally unlynchable today.

???????

Alright looks like im getting a lot of flak, thats a good sign.

I'm not scum, but im not going to defend myself. I could, but im liking where its taking everyone.

Please expand more on why my posts suck, i'll focus on some other stuff.

???????????????????????

I'm fine with this move for now.

VOTE: Skip

Huh. Had me in the first half then took a sudden right turn there

OH YOU CAN DO MORE THAN 1 SHUFFLE PER DAY

@Dong: Its a new setup I believe, Of course there is going to be alot of setup spec to start imo.

Well i want to play the game yet i dont want to waste time on learning essentially the same lynching. Hecric already said everything necessary, why are we still on this? We're just wasting time, its page 6 and no one has reads

You say this put you haven't put down a genuine vote since the very start of the game and haven't contributed anything in regards to reads yourself. If you don't want us to waste time and start sharing reads, lead by example

I believe Hectic is scum.

The notion for hectic is that theres a pretty good chance hectic believes there will be atleast one shuffle, which allows him to gambit with a huge number for townpoints because “

scum

wouldnt do that,” hectics number ENSURES hes the top, which is why I find this a gambit for townpoints.

He wants to be the top of the list, then I say we grant him his wish.

Corrected.

seems a tad wifom, I think I'm remembering my terminology right here, and I'm curious whether there is anymore to this scum read than that

sorry everyone
will get to this game tomorrow
will solve it for you because you're probably struggling
but maybe will give you some time first to let you have some fun

i see that attempt to buddy me Locke
and consider it done
you're locktown
anyone counterclaiming Elizabeth?

senpai noticed me.

Fake read, and you conveniently didn't notice in my 3 posts that my action to reverse the list wouldn't hit elements, and would instead hit Locke if there were only 1 action per day. This is something that I would expect you to comment on if you were town, instead it seems you called me the scummiest person just because

Hmmm this is a fair point, if you're gonna vote a scumread, even if its only a slight one surely you'd pick up on something like that and use it as an example of scumminess rather than just say they're mostly like to flip scum

[Locke113]

Spoiler: page7

coz it puts me second and I don't want to be night killed

Hmmm, never been a big fan of overly protective town, I know its preferable to not die as town, but to base how to lynch on the basis that it either has to make you unkillable at night/harder to kill at night seems over the top don't you think? Always found posts like this to be a sort of LAMIST post, since it usually comes across as you're trying to convince town that you can indeed be night killed because you are totally 100% town

Pops is probably town, but I do have a tiny tiny tiny reason to believe she is scum, but I do not feel like outing my reason as it is reaching (and somewhat a gut feeling) and I tr pops enough for now to ignore it.

I can't think of a protown reason not to out it.

If you feel that the reason is invalid at its core, there are six townies that can show you so in a collaborative process.
If it's truly valid at its deepest core then scum!pops would possibly NK you n1 or n2 as one of the players with a reservation against you she could never address, or maybe I guess she leaves you alive until LyLo where there is only 1 other townie to figure out whether your idea is dumb or smart and talk it out with you. But like, I don't see how it helps you to hide it.

That said, if it concerns some of my ongoing games that you have read, it is undeed the unfortunate case that you're required to use it to inform your read but not explain it to other people, according to site rules. Expressing a desire that you hope one of those games finish during this one would be o.k.

Let me explain this in a really obvious way for you. The reason you don’t out it is simple. If you suspect someone but it’s a tiny hunch. You don’t state the reason why you look for patterns on why they’re scum. That’s a little vastaya lesson for you. You can thank me later.
Don’t really like how you came at the comment but who knows maybe you got some air under your wings.

I must be a big dumbie(dumby?), cause I don't really see why its necessary to hide tiny hunches? Personally I usually just air shit out as I'm feeling it in this game, should I not be doing that in your opinion? Also, your RPing is really throwing me off reading you, I keep reading your posts like I'm reading a character rather than a player. Not a complaint though, its pretty fun to read

VOTE: Pair

This would leave Lock out right? Then reverse killing Lock/Azure. I think I'm fine with that right now

This post has just made me realise I'm still unsure how the pair/layer pair works,

does anyone know which number is left out? is a number left out at all, or is there a number that pairs twice so either 5/9, not sure which, isn't left out?

VOTE: Pair

This would leave Lock out right? Then reverse killing Lock/Azure. I think I'm fine with that right now

Im Conductor, Locke is GM.

*Math Pun*

Attempting to lynch us results in your erasure.

This is fluff dont read into it

[Locke113]

Spoiler: ThisPage

VOTE: Pair

This would leave Lock out right? Then reverse killing Lock/Azure. I think I'm fine with that right now

I've only had Azure for five minutes, but if anything happened to her I would set you on fire, then

Skip: Rope

in front of GuyInFreezer until everyone died.
You quote things from her I know you should think are "wrong but town" and I think you should be able to learn more. Can you even try to think like a human?

Okay, you're gonna have to explain this townread on Azure for me, cause I'm just not seeing it. Last post that seemed properly townie to me from her, was 45/46

I noticed in Crown on the Ground I have to vote you to get you out of your shell sometimes, so I wouldn't expect you to be so surprised by a Dunnstral vote in a lower information phase of the game.

It looks less like you're sorting and more like you're pretending to be town to me.

UNVOTE:

This feels like a weird progression, pushing a scumread more then unvoting, I can think of a town reason for it but I'm curious to hear from you, whats your reasoning for this?

[GuyInFreezer]

Vote Count 1.3

REVERSE - Dongempire
HALF - Locke113, Nymph, popsofctown, Elements
PAIR - MariaR
SKIP - Azuresky

@Mod: The mafia can shuffle more than once per game if they reuse the same type of shuffle method, can they not? That's my reading of "method"

Only once per game

[Azuresky]

Well have fun with this then, cause im not gonna burn myself out at school just to come back to this

Boooooooooooooo.


I think there is way too much night spec and setting up for me here. Honestly Id wait a day or so before setting up the list to protect people.

Locke, you say my reasoning is wifomy, I think is pretty obvious that this is a ploy for townpoints as its pretty certain that atleast 1 shuffle will happen, keeping Hectic off the table for the day. He wants the top, he can have it. Vote skip, let mafia decide on Dunn.

[Hectic]

Why would I respond to nonsense? Seems kinda useless and just clogs of the thread. So, if the interaction is so strange to you what kinda impression does it give you? 'Strange' can mean many things. Why don't you clear that up.

Have you played with Hectic before? I've never played with him which is why I asked for clarification. I thought the cryptography post and the fake claim is something I've never seen on this site before at the same time. I still remember someone from a Newbie game recently claimed VT from a game I was reading and ended up as scum that got lynched D2 which is what came into my mind.

have something to confess
didn't realise it was an open setup
so may have crumbed vanilla townie in my first post...
that game you're talking about is where i got the idea from

Can you post examples for me?

@Nymph
This would be what I was referring to.

I've never been asked for something like this before, actually, I'm not positive how I should be taking it. Only ever been asked for entire game links.

Wait really? I find questions like that to be NAI. I've seen questions about getting links to past games be very common.

from my 2 decades of experience - have found that people asking for specifics like that are generally more town
shows desire to solve and work things out

Ok, I'm going to leave a big post here for awhile as I plan on being busy tomorrow:

Give me Maria for town at this point, I'm usually a sucker for posts like #11, as most of the time this is a genuine statement.

Quickly looking at Hectics #12, I found the words,

Wind Tracker May Ruined Wrong Byes

take that as you will, its probably nothing, as there are no PRs in this game.

Hectic #15 ("You Believe Scum are Less Likely to put themselves at the top of the list") - Hectic could be scum for this. The WIFOM play is ballsy and something I can respect. Nymph v Hectic looks to be TvS if you ask me.

Pops is probably town, but I do have a tiny tiny tiny reason to believe she is scum, but I do not feel like outing my reason as it is reaching (and somewhat a gut feeling) and I tr pops enough for now to ignore it.


In Summary, I personally would like to think as of right now: Hectic/Nymph and someone who hasn't talked much yet (Dong/Elements/Dunn/Locke). I would vote SKIP right now, but I want to hear from those 4 before I make any more assumptions. I think this should provide yall some talking points to work with.

Other Notes:

I have a really really tiny town read on Dunn and Hectics.

VOTE: HALF

Dunn hasn't posted yet up to that post. Fake reads?

so youre not buying in to wifom?

I can see hectic doing it, never played with dunn, have you? Think dunn would wifom?

did it because it'd be funny
and that it'd generate discussion
didn't think it would impact lynching since 3 shuffles is enough for anything
like you could do 3 shuffles today and still have me at the top
or do a shuffle and then undo
you're reading too much into this
like a librarian on heroin

Hectic LAMIST is ironic, isnt it? Given that i dont see why you're scumreading him so much over it.
If its unironic, well, im out of words in that case. But doubt that

how dare you
you have a lot to learn student

[Hectic]

I had a theory that I've been thinking about how to possibly use VCA and associate players with other players based off the 3rd shuffle. If a player that is safe picks one option over another, then see who would die in that other option. That person has a "buddying" relationship with that player if the player or other person is scum.

Do I tryhard in this game and get a notebook and draw the permutations and statistical possibilities for each shuffle? Do I hate myself enough to do this?

don't think it's necessary yet
more important to see tomorrow

The first 3 pages are rolepaying and setup spec, damn.
I guess it befalls me to restart the rvs so we can actually get started.
VOTE: Guyinfreezer because i sure as hell wouldnt mind a more straightforward lynching system.

bit hypocritical?

I intend to use a shot today

Shoot me! I dare you!

Quickly looking at Hectics #12, I found the words,

Wind Tracker May Ruined Wrong Byes

take that as you will, its probably nothing, as there are no PRs in this game.

There are also the words; Axolotl, Wit, Low, Liar, Rat, Doctor, Draw, Ran, Town/y, Yes, Over, Ago, Goo, I/con/s, May, Tumour, One. There are probably a lot more but I got bored of looking and couldn't be bothered to find a words search solver.

Interesting that there's a word that actively relates to me there but I can't see one as obvious for anyone else. Unless "Low" and "Wit" is relating to Hectic himself.
Is there a reason for this Hectic?

there's one for pops too actually
there is a reason for that grid
was supposed to be my crumb
should i reveal it now?

Now that we know how to lynch anyone here, can we please start playing this normally instead of sprinkling crumbs like a pigeon and setup speccing?

you say this but i don't see much attempts at solving from you

[Hectic]

In regards to weather the mafia would put themselves at the top or bottom of the list - I think there's so much wifom there it's pointless speculating especially given we can get anyone to the top of the list.

So there is one thing I'd like to discuss about this.

Number theory.

So back when I was teaching this subject at MIT - this was back in 2007 - I conducted a small experiment.

I told one group of students to flip a coin 100 times, and note down the resulting sequence of Heads and Tails flips.
I told a second group of students to write down what they

thought

a 100 long sequence of random coin flips would look like.

I walked out of the room and allowed each group to write down their sequences. They wrote them down on individual pieces of paper.
When I returned, they handed me the two sequences, I did not know which sequence corresponded to which group.
Yet, it took me all of 3 seconds to determine which sequence was the fabricated one.

Why?

Because humans don't understand how true randomness

really

works.
The fabricated list's longest run of consecutive Head/Tail flips was 4. 4 Head flips in a row.
The

real list

had a run of

7

Tail flips in a row.
That's all it took for me to determine the true sequence.

The students fabricating the list thought it'd be ridiculous to have any more than 4 Heads in a row, I'd spot it's fake otherwise, right?
Wrong.
True randomness will result in much longer sequences of Heads/Tails.
In addition, the fabricated list just had smaller consecutive runs in general, the real one didn't.

So now that you're up to date with number theory, how do we apply it to this game?
Well.
The two mafia are very unlikely to pick two numbers very close together, and are extremely unlikely to pick the same number.
They avoid this since they believe their similar numbers could be used to link them together, that it wouldn't look natural if they were so close.
But in reality? Randomness doesn't give a damn about that.
So we can use this logic to not completely discount but make some scum teams far less likely.

Me and Dunn? Extremely unlikely. However, this doesn't apply here since I'm a master of Number Theory.
Azure and Nymph? Very unlikely.
Locke and Nymph? Relatively unlikely.
Same goes for pops with Azure.
And for Elements and Dongempire, and Dongempire and pops since the difference is proportionally smaller at those numbers.

Feel free to ask any questions. My students always had plenty after my regular lectures.

[Hectic]

Hectic has certainly played a lot of mafia and presumably he's probably good

probably good?
don't make me smite you

[Hectic]

I believe Hectic is scum.

The notion for hectic is that theres a pretty good chance hectic believes there will be atleast one shuffle, which allows him to gambit with a huge number for townpoints because “town wouldnt do that,” hectics number ENSURES hes the top, which is why I find this a gambit for townpoints.

He wants to be the top of the list, then I say we grant him his wish.

don't like Azure so far
basing WAY too much on my high number
it means very little
and more than one shuffle can still end with me at top

this the only reason you're scumreading me?

[Hectic]

liking Elements' stance on doing at least one shuffle just so we can gets reads from it later
even if it means we undo to still lynch me
have some townie brownies

[Hectic]

Should probably get 5 votes agree on all 3 shuffles before executing any of them to minmax this the best.

Straight skip is strictly better than something like Pair, Undo, Skip, because scum then get to choose between doing Undo and locking in undo for the rest of the game, or doing pair and locking in pair for the rest of the game, for the same effect, where with straight skip the scum must choose Pair.
I think we would possibly not even find out which one they did, that could make ending on an undo bad in general?

this also works though
though Elements idea is good
if we commit to a shuffle or two
then it may become impossible to lynch someone who does something scummy towards the end of the day
so actually - think we should do this instead

[Hectic]

Spoiler:

Spoiler: post

sorry everyone
will get to this game tomorrow
will solve it for you because you're probably struggling
but maybe will give you some time first to let you have some fun

i see that attempt to buddy me Locke
and consider it done
you're locktown
anyone counterclaiming Elizabeth?

I day-rolecopped Locke and got the result "Elizabeth", which means my initial read on you of being Elizabeth must be wrong (I didn't burn a shot confirming that hunch, I have to be careful as an X-shot). It's pretty clear now why Locke has you townlocked. I'll spoiler this, both to make dongempire happy, and to give us a better chance of someone showing up and scumclaiming by claiming Elizabeth.

Spoiler:

it's okay
since you spoilered it - i think only Dongempire and i will open the spoiler to look
probably too much hassle for everyone else

have someone else pinned down as Elizabeth actually
MariaR
yeah surprising i know
but think she's intentionally nullscumreading me to keep me alive in the night
well played MariaR well played

[Hectic]

I like "Skip" in that Nymph and Azuresky become unkillable and I think those slots are town, and the mafia lose the undo option. But I'm not really scumreading Hectic and I'm one of those players that is pickier than "nullread" for the day one lynch.

pedit: oooooh a new game now I gotta find a sequence that makes Elements unkillable too
I'm not actually townreading to where I care
but games

elaborate on your Azure townread please
agree with Nymph and Elements so far

[Hectic]

I'm still foggy on your reasoning for why at least one shuffle method should be used. A couple posts back you kind of hinted at it fostering discussion a la RVS votes, is that a rep or a misrep?

I think we're throwing 3-4 1-shot town bodyguard effects in the trash if we use the options one at a time instead of leashing, I'm not sure I can swallow that pill. UNVOTE: if I haven't yet, btw.

yeah
let's determine most scummiest/towniest players
than shuffle at the end to get scummiest at top and make towniest bulletproof