newbie 1956 - car seat headrest [we gotta go back]

[eth0s]

confirmation bias is real and I fall to it a lot but something really stinks right now and that is what is keeping me skeptical. I cannot exaggerate how weird it is that the egix wagon has gotten to L-1 without any fingers being pointed at me or faustiv. something is VERY WRONG there

[Draynth]

I know one thing for absolute certain right now. It isn't an egix/faustiv team. Meaning my Day 1 reads were definitely bad. At least 2/3 wrong on the scum. So the lack of discussion on me today implies that someone wants me to join a mislynch to further ruin my own towncred. Scum know I'm not a PR for multiple obvious reasons and therefore don't want to nk me. Seeing as how there's very little effort going towards the wagon that

should

make the most sense today out of {egix,faustiv} I am inclined to believe that egix is a mislynch and I'm supposed to eat rope tomorrow. There is no reason that a wagon being as uncontested as egix's could be scum at this point and have 0 resistance pointing towards me or faustiv.

all I can figure is that my mason fakeclaim is putting me in a position where scum don't want to touch me today and faustiv is being conveniently let off the hook by town and is scum with a buddy advocating against his death.

So, this all makes sense but I'm really paranoid that if faustiv gets lynched today and actually flips green, we're in a kind of shitty spot tomorrow where egix is still alive and it's LYLO
I dunno I think I need to reread the end of day 1 / start of day 2, it was all a bit hectic

[eth0s]

If this flips town I might have to reconsider eth0s though. I also think that if this flips scum I can say that faüstiv’s probably town.

^ this bit right here. it bothers me so badly. it falls in line with everything I have been saying about why I am being left alone right now and it really seems like spangled is trying to set me up. my working theory is that faustiv is scum and either spangled or draynth have to be the partner.

[eth0s]

ah im getting a headache. So many people look scummy in isolation. I need to take a break

[Draynth]

It's games like these where sometimes I wish we could get a tactical replacement in or something lol, so often new players to games just see things way clearer than everyone that has been in it since the start

[Draynth]

Something else to make note of are the players that are sitting back and letting all of this discussion happen.
I know it's all taken place in the space of an hour or two, but very often scum players will allow the town to overcomplicate things and confuse themselves.

I'm not saying we should just lynch faustiv or egix and to simplify things or anything, I just think it's worth noticing

[eth0s]

Yeah. People need to discuss things today. I want to know specifically why faustiv and I have had no one talking about us pretty much all day.

[faüstiv]

Alright well this escalated quickly. I’ll read the thread and answer questions later.

[faüstiv]

Also me and Egix are on L1

[Draynth]

UNVOTE: Egix96
I want to think on this some more

[Geyde]

Aight, I'm back
Took SAT yesterday and was basically clunked out for the rest of day

[Geyde]

Spoiler: Egix’s readslist in post 75

@Egix96 where's your head at in regards to the thread?
I don't see real solving from your posts

In my opinion, the game hasn't really yet progressed far enough for me to form any solid reads yet, but based on some ISO-reading:

Airan - They remind me a bit of how I was in my first-ever game (Newbie 1890), in that they seem... well, actually I'm not sure how to put it in words. Maybe it's because, like me, they started their first game with a scum rand, but I don't really feel strongly about that. I'm aware that Jamelia "love[d] that [they were] being 'paranoid'" but to me, 39 is a good example of what I'm talking about here.

Draynth - Not really seeing much in the way of alignment-indicative stuff from him yet. Most of his play so far has simply involved asking questions (also his 'quick tip' in 17) so I would consider him the de facto IC of this game (the Newbie game kind, when those were still a thing).

faustiv - I would like to see more from them first.

Geyde - I think that 62 is a +town observation, though it remains to be seen whether I will end up agreeing with it or not.

Jamelia - Probably not scum with Airan based on first sentence of 47. I can imagine the rest of that post being said from one scum to another, but not the first bit, I think that would just be way too corny
Individually though, not yet sure what to make of him.

NMSA - 56 feels a little bit reachy imo, but I guess that that can be at least partially justified by it being that early in the game. Nothing else from him pings me though.

Spangled - 61 - "...but

I don’t think I can call [Jamelia] scum over it.

I am not willing to put my vote there just yet, but

I will consider it.

" Seems non-committal and maybe self-contradictory?

Veggie - I notice that, like Jamelia, they also end a lot of their sentences with exclamation marks - how has Spam not picked up on that? But I digress.
66 I will admit is not a bad post, but I wouldn't say that it's "the best question asked so far" as Spangled put it... and Airan agreeing with that is... eh? But again I digress.

So with all that said,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Spangled

I find it funny that there’s a comment, one way or another, on almost all players in this post, but he draws few conclusions about any almost any person’s alignment. He says Airan reminds him of his first game, but doesn’t follow up on that. Doesn’t really actually say

anything

about Draynth. As town, why wouldn’t he just take a look at all of that, but especially that last sentence, and delete it. It doesn’t add anything, so why post it?
Just calls Geyde’s observation is +town, doesn’t follow up on it. Doesn’t draw any

conclusions

.
Doesn’t know what to make of Jam ‘individually’, implies that NMSA’s post on Jam ‘pinged’ him but excuses it because of how early it is in the game.
All in all, there’s lots of comments, but while they say a good deal — and some more than they need to — they never really draw any really

solid

conclusions about alignments here. So why did they make this post? Well, because of Draynth’s pressure on them to do some ‘gamesolving’; this post, ultimately nothing, is a deflection of pressure, almost purely.

You may say that their stance on me above contradicts how I say that he draws few conclusions about alignment. That is true, but it doesn’t excuse the rest of the post. In fact, it perhaps furthers the idea of him as scum; not only is it a good early ‘push’ to make on someone that looks towny — which as Draynth can bear witness to, I’ve done as scum — but he jumps straight off it onto Airan. He never gives reasoning for walking back his read on me, and only in fact explicitly does that in 566.

While all of this may seem a little reachy, and based upon analysis of only one post, I actually think it gives good reasons by itself to consider Egix to potentially be scum. And that’s discounting faüstiv’s reasoning, which is actually quite good too. I’m comfortable putting this on

L-1

VOTE: Egix96

If this flips town I might have to reconsider eth0s though. I also think that if this flips scum I can say that faüstiv’s probably town.
Sorry, also, for not doing analysis of all of our lynchpool’s ISOs, but I got on one subject, and couldn’t stop myself
I’ll do some stuff around that maybe later.

I know one thing for absolute certain right now. It isn't an egix/faustiv team. Meaning my Day 1 reads were definitely bad. At least 2/3 wrong on the scum. So the lack of discussion on me today implies that someone wants me to join a mislynch to further ruin my own towncred. Scum know I'm not a PR for multiple obvious reasons and therefore don't want to nk me. Seeing as how there's very little effort going towards the wagon that

should

make the most sense today out of {egix,faustiv} I am inclined to believe that egix is a mislynch and I'm supposed to eat rope tomorrow. There is no reason that a wagon being as uncontested as egix's could be scum at this point and have 0 resistance pointing towards me or faustiv.

all I can figure is that my mason fakeclaim is putting me in a position where scum don't want to touch me today and faustiv is being conveniently let off the hook by town and is scum with a buddy advocating against his death.

[Geyde]

Draynth's vote makes absolutely no sense if he's scum with Egix because of points I've already brought up regarding endgaming
The only other person who could realistically be on the same team as Egix would be Spangled because all of his other interactions have been poor

I still think Egix is probably scum, but I really want to look at interactions before making judgements

I disagree with this.

If Egix/Dryanth are the team then Dryanth bussing here makes sense to gain him some towncred. There's no investigating roles left so there's no ramifications for mafia to bus here; in fact I'd argue it would be the optimal play considering no one townreads Egix.

...
How do you know there's no investigative roles left

[Geyde]

Draynth's vote makes absolutely no sense if he's scum with Egix because of points I've already brought up regarding endgaming
The only other person who could realistically be on the same team as Egix would be Spangled because all of his other interactions have been poor

I still think Egix is probably scum, but I really want to look at interactions before making judgements

I disagree with this.

If Egix/Dryanth are the team then Dryanth bussing here makes sense to gain him some towncred. There's no investigating roles left so there's no ramifications for mafia to bus here; in fact I'd argue it would be the optimal play considering no one townreads Egix.

...
How do you know there's no investigative roles left

Incorrect here
I'm used to regular 2d3 which has Cop/Tracker as one potential roll

[Geyde]

Spoiler: Egix’s readslist in post 75

@Egix96 where's your head at in regards to the thread?
I don't see real solving from your posts

In my opinion, the game hasn't really yet progressed far enough for me to form any solid reads yet, but based on some ISO-reading:

Airan - They remind me a bit of how I was in my first-ever game (Newbie 1890), in that they seem... well, actually I'm not sure how to put it in words. Maybe it's because, like me, they started their first game with a scum rand, but I don't really feel strongly about that. I'm aware that Jamelia "love[d] that [they were] being 'paranoid'" but to me, 39 is a good example of what I'm talking about here.

Draynth - Not really seeing much in the way of alignment-indicative stuff from him yet. Most of his play so far has simply involved asking questions (also his 'quick tip' in 17) so I would consider him the de facto IC of this game (the Newbie game kind, when those were still a thing).

faustiv - I would like to see more from them first.

Geyde - I think that 62 is a +town observation, though it remains to be seen whether I will end up agreeing with it or not.

Jamelia - Probably not scum with Airan based on first sentence of 47. I can imagine the rest of that post being said from one scum to another, but not the first bit, I think that would just be way too corny
Individually though, not yet sure what to make of him.

NMSA - 56 feels a little bit reachy imo, but I guess that that can be at least partially justified by it being that early in the game. Nothing else from him pings me though.

Spangled - 61 - "...but

I don’t think I can call [Jamelia] scum over it.

I am not willing to put my vote there just yet, but

I will consider it.

" Seems non-committal and maybe self-contradictory?

Veggie - I notice that, like Jamelia, they also end a lot of their sentences with exclamation marks - how has Spam not picked up on that? But I digress.
66 I will admit is not a bad post, but I wouldn't say that it's "the best question asked so far" as Spangled put it... and Airan agreeing with that is... eh? But again I digress.

So with all that said,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Spangled

I find it funny that there’s a comment, one way or another, on almost all players in this post, but he draws few conclusions about any almost any person’s alignment. He says Airan reminds him of his first game, but doesn’t follow up on that. Doesn’t really actually say

anything

about Draynth. As town, why wouldn’t he just take a look at all of that, but especially that last sentence, and delete it. It doesn’t add anything, so why post it?
Just calls Geyde’s observation is +town, doesn’t follow up on it. Doesn’t draw any

conclusions

.
Doesn’t know what to make of Jam ‘individually’, implies that NMSA’s post on Jam ‘pinged’ him but excuses it because of how early it is in the game.
All in all, there’s lots of comments, but while they say a good deal — and some more than they need to — they never really draw any really

solid

conclusions about alignments here. So why did they make this post? Well, because of Draynth’s pressure on them to do some ‘gamesolving’; this post, ultimately nothing, is a deflection of pressure, almost purely.

You may say that their stance on me above contradicts how I say that he draws few conclusions about alignment. That is true, but it doesn’t excuse the rest of the post. In fact, it perhaps furthers the idea of him as scum; not only is it a good early ‘push’ to make on someone that looks towny — which as Draynth can bear witness to, I’ve done as scum — but he jumps straight off it onto Airan. He never gives reasoning for walking back his read on me, and only in fact explicitly does that in 566.

While all of this may seem a little reachy, and based upon analysis of only one post, I actually think it gives good reasons by itself to consider Egix to potentially be scum. And that’s discounting faüstiv’s reasoning, which is actually quite good too. I’m comfortable putting this on

L-1

VOTE: Egix96

If this flips town I might have to reconsider eth0s though. I also think that if this flips scum I can say that faüstiv’s probably town.
Sorry, also, for not doing analysis of all of our lynchpool’s ISOs, but I got on one subject, and couldn’t stop myself
I’ll do some stuff around that maybe later.

I think my townread on Geyde is more solid now, even if I disagree with some of his analysis.

In some ways I don’t like his tone, but I think the way in which I don’t like his tone makes him more town

, if that makes sense?
I’m quite liking Jam’s tone so far, just scrolling through his ISO and stopping at points — it’s actually all quite good.
I’m starting to paranoia about eth0s, but the last time I did that about a universal town read, they

were

town and it gave scum material to build off of to get them lynched in LyLo. I don’t think this is scum, but eth0s: can I see your most recent scumgame?

So that kinda narrows it down to faüstiv, egix and draynth, doesn’t it?
I’m going to do some ISOing here.

I still think Geyde is town. Could you quote any specific posts where you didn't like his tone?

As for Jam, there are actually a few posts of theirs where I remember not liking their tone. I'll see if I can find them. But apart from that, I agree that they are likely town, all things considered.

Also I'll admit I'm slightly paranoid about eth0s as well, but that's mainly because of Airan and how scummy he seemed to be. I'm just kinda hoping that we don't have another alien->Auro (from Newb1893) on our hands.

So yeah if I had to guess the exact scumteam right now it would be faust/draynth.

I’m worried that you didn’t read my post very thoroughly. See the bolded above.
But generally, what I have not liked about his tone is his confidence and willingness — and perhaps attempt — to take control of the situation generally and push their reads as truth. But I think that all of that, — which has also been less harsh than I’ve made it sound, perhaps — especially in the way in which he has done it, makes him more likely to be town, aye.

also yeah about scum!draynth pushing faustiv here, I'd definitely have to try and bite the bullet and misylnch one of the more townread / directly opposing players today. As was mentioned, players like faustiv/egix are both easier to mislynch

Wifomy wifoming. I like it.
Why is Egix easier to mislynch, in your opinion, and why did you just assume he was town?

@Egix
Could you give us an updated readslist, perhaps?

@Egix
If 66 is not the best question asked so far, what is, in your opinion?
I also don’t really see how it is self-contradictory to say that I don’t think this person should be called scum for doing so-and-so, but that I’ll think a bit about it. You will notice that I did exactly that — I looked over their entrance in their previous game.
Non-commital... that’s fair; that’s just me early-game, I’m afraid; if you meta me I dare say that that is what you’ll find.

[faüstiv]

Ok, I agree that my earlier posts were bad. The reason behind that was disengagement. Forum Mafia is something that I have to be in the right mood to play and at that point I wasn't feeling it. As the game progressed however, I started to get more invested in the game and as such stopped with the shitty filler scummy posts.

I'm coming back to mafia after like a 2 or 3 year absence. I haven't played a competitive game for ages and it's taken me a bit of time to get back into the swing of things. My progression of posts and content simply comes from me enjoying the game more than I did when this game first started.

718 from eth0s:

Now that I think of it why did Faustiv play so reactionary and defensively day 1 when people were pointing fingers at him and then come back today with a post like 667 when under no pressure? It seems like a townie post in isolation but what prompted this shift in effort? Why didn't we see anything like this from him before?

Explained above and also we have more information. Day 2 has also been quite stop-start (which benefits scum) and so I thought a post like 667 would generate discussion, as well as outline my thoughts on Egix.

Is he buttering me up? Like he backs off of me hard when as a town he should only have MORE reason to lynch me today if that's how he really felt about me. I mean I quicklynched a PR ffs. This would make a lot more sense to me if I was voting egix because then it obviously becomes a "eth0s voting down his d1 scumreads in mislynch fashion" play to mislynch me tomorrow while trying to land the NK on a PR. But I'm not voting egix. So what is the angle?

Not going to lie, I was beginning to townread you towards the end of D1 because the tone from your posts seemed to come from pissed off town as opposed to pissed off scum. I didn't want to say at the time that because I wanted to keep the pressure on you and I wanted to see some flips before confirming whether I thought my growing townread on you was misguided or not. Your D2 paranoia has pretty much locktowned you in my eyes and a lot of your analysis made sense to me as I have had similar thoughts. If you want me to elaborate on this I will.

Personally I think the team is Spangled/Egix. I had a strong townread on Spangled D1, yes, but that townread shrinks after each post. This in 694 is particularly bad from Spangled:

If this flips town I might have to reconsider eth0s though. I also think that if this flips scum I can say that faüstiv’s probably town.
Sorry, also, for not doing analysis of all of our lynchpool’s ISOs, but I got on one subject, and couldn’t stop myself
I’ll do some stuff around that maybe later.

It's as if he is seedplanting in case of flips.

654 is kinda bad and contradictory too:

I think my townread on Geyde is more solid now, even if I disagree with some of his analysis. In some ways I don’t like his tone, but I think the way in which I don’t like his tone makes him more town, if that makes sense?
I’m quite liking Jam’s tone so far, just scrolling through his ISO and stopping at points — it’s actually all quite good.
I’m starting to paranoia about eth0s, but the last time I did that about a universal town read, they were town and it gave scum material to build off of to get them lynched in LyLo. I don’t think this is scum, but eth0s: can I see your most recent scumgame?

So that kinda narrows it down to faüstiv, egix and draynth, doesn’t it?

'I think this townread is more solid although his analysis is bad'

'I'm getting paranoid about this slot, but I don't think he's scum'

It does read as if he's setting up early progression on a scumread on eth0s, and also as a way to backtrack on the Geyde townread (the bad analysis bit) in case there's grounds to push a lynch on him in future. If there is, he can use that as part of his case.

And as stated before - if Egix is scum then Spangled bussing him would be a smart play to gain towncred since there's no cop.


eth0s your brains running around in circles for no reason. If you have more questions, ask.

[faüstiv]

Draynth's vote makes absolutely no sense if he's scum with Egix because of points I've already brought up regarding endgaming
The only other person who could realistically be on the same team as Egix would be Spangled because all of his other interactions have been poor

I still think Egix is probably scum, but I really want to look at interactions before making judgements

I disagree with this.

If Egix/Dryanth are the team then Dryanth bussing here makes sense to gain him some towncred. There's no investigating roles left so there's no ramifications for mafia to bus here; in fact I'd argue it would be the optimal play considering no one townreads Egix.

...
How do you know there's no investigative roles left

I know you know now but for those that don't, with a cop we either have a doctor or another villager as part of the setup. Check Post 2 for clarification.

[Geyde]

Spoiler: Spangled on Egix

Spoiler: Egix’s readslist in post 75

@Egix96 where's your head at in regards to the thread?
I don't see real solving from your posts

In my opinion, the game hasn't really yet progressed far enough for me to form any solid reads yet, but based on some ISO-reading:

Airan - They remind me a bit of how I was in my first-ever game (Newbie 1890), in that they seem... well, actually I'm not sure how to put it in words. Maybe it's because, like me, they started their first game with a scum rand, but I don't really feel strongly about that. I'm aware that Jamelia "love[d] that [they were] being 'paranoid'" but to me, 39 is a good example of what I'm talking about here.

Draynth - Not really seeing much in the way of alignment-indicative stuff from him yet. Most of his play so far has simply involved asking questions (also his 'quick tip' in 17) so I would consider him the de facto IC of this game (the Newbie game kind, when those were still a thing).

faustiv - I would like to see more from them first.

Geyde - I think that 62 is a +town observation, though it remains to be seen whether I will end up agreeing with it or not.

Jamelia - Probably not scum with Airan based on first sentence of 47. I can imagine the rest of that post being said from one scum to another, but not the first bit, I think that would just be way too corny
Individually though, not yet sure what to make of him.

NMSA - 56 feels a little bit reachy imo, but I guess that that can be at least partially justified by it being that early in the game. Nothing else from him pings me though.

Spangled - 61 - "...but

I don’t think I can call [Jamelia] scum over it.

I am not willing to put my vote there just yet, but

I will consider it.

" Seems non-committal and maybe self-contradictory?

Veggie - I notice that, like Jamelia, they also end a lot of their sentences with exclamation marks - how has Spam not picked up on that? But I digress.
66 I will admit is not a bad post, but I wouldn't say that it's "the best question asked so far" as Spangled put it... and Airan agreeing with that is... eh? But again I digress.

So with all that said,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Spangled

I find it funny that there’s a comment, one way or another, on almost all players in this post, but he draws few conclusions about any almost any person’s alignment. He says Airan reminds him of his first game, but doesn’t follow up on that. Doesn’t really actually say

anything

about Draynth. As town, why wouldn’t he just take a look at all of that, but especially that last sentence, and delete it. It doesn’t add anything, so why post it?
Just calls Geyde’s observation is +town, doesn’t follow up on it. Doesn’t draw any

conclusions

.
Doesn’t know what to make of Jam ‘individually’, implies that NMSA’s post on Jam ‘pinged’ him but excuses it because of how early it is in the game.
All in all, there’s lots of comments, but while they say a good deal — and some more than they need to — they never really draw any really

solid

conclusions about alignments here. So why did they make this post? Well, because of Draynth’s pressure on them to do some ‘gamesolving’; this post, ultimately nothing, is a deflection of pressure, almost purely.

You may say that their stance on me above contradicts how I say that he draws few conclusions about alignment. That is true, but it doesn’t excuse the rest of the post. In fact, it perhaps furthers the idea of him as scum; not only is it a good early ‘push’ to make on someone that looks towny — which as Draynth can bear witness to, I’ve done as scum — but he jumps straight off it onto Airan. He never gives reasoning for walking back his read on me, and only in fact explicitly does that in 566.

While all of this may seem a little reachy, and based upon analysis of only one post, I actually think it gives good reasons by itself to consider Egix to potentially be scum. And that’s discounting faüstiv’s reasoning, which is actually quite good too. I’m comfortable putting this on

L-1

VOTE: Egix96

If this flips town I might have to reconsider eth0s though. I also think that if this flips scum I can say that faüstiv’s probably town.
Sorry, also, for not doing analysis of all of our lynchpool’s ISOs, but I got on one subject, and couldn’t stop myself
I’ll do some stuff around that maybe later.

I think my townread on Geyde is more solid now, even if I disagree with some of his analysis.

In some ways I don’t like his tone, but I think the way in which I don’t like his tone makes him more town

, if that makes sense?
I’m quite liking Jam’s tone so far, just scrolling through his ISO and stopping at points — it’s actually all quite good.
I’m starting to paranoia about eth0s, but the last time I did that about a universal town read, they

were

town and it gave scum material to build off of to get them lynched in LyLo. I don’t think this is scum, but eth0s: can I see your most recent scumgame?

So that kinda narrows it down to faüstiv, egix and draynth, doesn’t it?
I’m going to do some ISOing here.

I still think Geyde is town. Could you quote any specific posts where you didn't like his tone?

As for Jam, there are actually a few posts of theirs where I remember not liking their tone. I'll see if I can find them. But apart from that, I agree that they are likely town, all things considered.

Also I'll admit I'm slightly paranoid about eth0s as well, but that's mainly because of Airan and how scummy he seemed to be. I'm just kinda hoping that we don't have another alien->Auro (from Newb1893) on our hands.

So yeah if I had to guess the exact scumteam right now it would be faust/draynth.

I’m worried that you didn’t read my post very thoroughly. See the bolded above.
But generally, what I have not liked about his tone is his confidence and willingness — and perhaps attempt — to take control of the situation generally and push their reads as truth. But I think that all of that, — which has also been less harsh than I’ve made it sound, perhaps — especially in the way in which he has done it, makes him more likely to be town, aye.

also yeah about scum!draynth pushing faustiv here, I'd definitely have to try and bite the bullet and misylnch one of the more townread / directly opposing players today. As was mentioned, players like faustiv/egix are both easier to mislynch

Wifomy wifoming. I like it.
Why is Egix easier to mislynch, in your opinion, and why did you just assume he was town?

@Egix
Could you give us an updated readslist, perhaps?

@Egix
If 66 is not the best question asked so far, what is, in your opinion?
I also don’t really see how it is self-contradictory to say that I don’t think this person should be called scum for doing so-and-so, but that I’ll think a bit about it. You will notice that I did exactly that — I looked over their entrance in their previous game.
Non-commital... that’s fair; that’s just me early-game, I’m afraid; if you meta me I dare say that that is what you’ll find.

Spoiler: Egix on Spangled

I think you've been asked for this before Egix, and you still haven't done so yet. Where do you think people lean at this point?

Right now I'm thinking something like

Town:
Spangled
Geyde

?? (Need to look at when I get the chance)
Jam
Draynth
eth0s

Scum:
faust

So you think I am scum. Why?

Not only for your previous post, but also:

- Scumreading Spangled for being passive when you yourself were being passive
- You jumping from Geyde to Airan which felt opportunistic (to me it reads as you moving to an easier target)
- WK-ing NMSA seemingly out of nowhere when your only mentions of him prior were a) stating that you had him as "Null leaning scum" in your readslist, and b) mentioning that his interactions with Jamelia seemed to be coming from an uninformed viewpoint.
- vvv

Faustiv, you mentioned that you don't like those on NMSA's wagon
who other than eth0s do you think is scum out of {Draynth, Geyde, Veggie}

Not sure. All you and Egix are at least scumleans at the moment. I’d also add Egix to that, but his alignment would be more clear based on what eth0s flips.

Okay, so I get that from your perspective there's a scum between me and eth0s. But you're going after me now, not because of eth0s dying and flipping town, but because you've seemingly suddenly decided that he's town based on little more than a self-meta trust tell. Just... what.

@Egix

Just wanted to draw attention to 75 where you say your initial read on Airan is pretty similar to Spangled's current one except that you didn't feel as strongly about it. You then said in 217 that you're really starting to feel swayed now. What was it about Airan's posts that didn't sway you before?

When I first ISOed Airan, it was obvious to me from reading their posts that they were very likely a first-time player. Because the general air (pun not intended) of their posting reminded me of 1890 Egix, it did make me think 'first-time scum?' but I couldn't feel too strongly about it because a) self-projection, and b) their posting could quite easily have come from first-time town as well.
Spangled's case on Airan was a vital second opinion -

this isn't just a first-time player, this IS first-game scum.

And of course I found it compelling.

I want to say DADV given that thread has been both completely warped and died since the push on Airan started. If Airan were to be scum, then why isn't there any pressure being put on CFDs?
NMSA had a particularly shitty progression in 221 completely shifting his mind despite not showing any drop in confidence in scum!Jam, but that hasn't been expanded upon beyond a token comment by Draynth. Even then, there hasn't been any movement in thread toward pushing that further.
This might be clouded by Airan's activity completely dropping off the map, but I think the wagon on Airan is entirely impure

What does DADV and CFDs stand for?

DADV = Dead Air, Dead Villager, i.e. if no one is actively trying to change the direction of the game, it could be a sign that the person currently on the chopping block is town.
CFD = Chinese (Crazy) Fire Drill/Call for Decision, basically it's when someone who wasn't previously being voted suddenly gets voted and it snowballs from there (something which may occur if someone senses DADV, but usually close to Day deadline).

Spoiler:

I’m not accusing anyone, but spam seemed eager to Lynch veggie, after someone had already voted to lynch veggie.

I find it scummy because instead of voting for anyone else to check reactions, he voted for someone who had already been voted for.

I am not saying spam is a scum, or that you should vote for him. I am just saying that what he did was scummy

VOTE: faustiv

Sorry, reposting because I voted the incorrect way before!

Why are you voting me?

This might be because you seem (through no fault of your own) a bit of a lurker.

Yeah, I think that spam has got tunnel vision. Not sure if this makes him scum...

Ew ew ew. I want to... crawl away from my computer and wash my hands; it reminds me of my first game (which was as scum) and that's some serious PTSD right there; I don't want to be reminded of that game ever again.

'I’m not accusing anyone'
'I am not saying spam is a scum, or that you should vote for him. I am just saying that what he did was scummy'
'might be because you seem (through no fault of your own) a bit of a lurker'
'Not sure if this makes him scum...'

Conciliation coupled with opinions without thoughts or even...

bite

(if I can put it like that); a

point

behind them.
Throwing shade but retracting it in the same post; observations without

anything

behind or following from them. This is newbscum. VOTE: Airan303

Before this moment, I hadn’t realised that I’ve actually had experience in the newbie queue that can help me in other games. I’m afraid that this may well go to my head

But as to Airan — they’re not automatically scum, but I think that they are likely to be scum far above rand. So... in my experience, newbies have many different tones, but I think the most easily discernible is ‘my first game is a scum game’. Because forum mafia is an entirely new experience to many, you get thrown into the deep end on your first game — especially those who roll scum.

And the core of sorting people in mafia is really looking at the worldviews behind people’s posts — scum’s job (and thus worldview) is starkly different to town; their main priority is to stay alive, not drawing attention to themselves. This is especially apparent when you haven’t played any towngames; in a scumgame after you’ve played town, your main job is to mimic the style of your towngames.

But in a scumgame with no previous experience, you can’t do that, and don’t have any experience solving, sorting, etc. — the classic town behaviours. And so they don’t do them — where less-newb-scum might at least try to solve and sort and ‘be townie’ generally, true newbscum literally cannot do this; they don’t know how.

So you lay low; you try not to draw attention to yourself — or offend anyone. Thus, the conciliatory and just-made-accusation-withdrawing nature of their posts — they want to do what everyone else is doing that others are calling townie — air opinions, really — but without making anyone look twice at them.

This is what Airan is doing.

And I don’t think Airan is actually analysing anything; they’re agreeing with other things and giving irrelevant opinions — ‘oh, they probably RVS voted you because you are (through no fault of your own) a lurker’. There’s no analysis there.

If this wall — this absolute dissertation on first-game-scum — above does not convince you — which I’m sorry for, by the way, but once the steam train got going there was no stopping it — I’m afraid you’ll have to take my word for it as someone who randed their first game as scum.

Of course, if Airan’s next few posts make them obvtown, or all of the SEs disagree vehemently with this case, or Airan flips green, I reserve the right to say that I was actually talking of hypotheticals

This is really starting to sway me now.
Airan, do you have anything to say in response to all of this?

@Egix
If 66 is not the best question asked so far, what is, in your opinion?
I also don’t really see how it is self-contradictory to say that I don’t think this person should be called scum for doing so-and-so, but that I’ll think a bit about it. You will notice that I did exactly that — I looked over their entrance in their previous game.

- Really I'm not sure. It's hard to say what makes one particular question better than another. I wasn't really meaning to imply that I thought there was something better than 66, just that I felt it was overrated.
- It's just that the two parts of your post that I bolded seemed to send separate messages - "I don't think I can scumread Jamelia for that" versus "I will consider voting them".

@Egix96 where's your head at in regards to the thread?
I don't see real solving from your posts

In my opinion, the game hasn't really yet progressed far enough for me to form any solid reads yet, but based on some ISO-reading:

Airan - They remind me a bit of how I was in my first-ever game (Newbie 1890), in that they seem... well, actually I'm not sure how to put it in words. Maybe it's because, like me, they started their first game with a scum rand, but I don't really feel strongly about that. I'm aware that Jamelia "love[d] that [they were] being 'paranoid'" but to me, 39 is a good example of what I'm talking about here.

Draynth - Not really seeing much in the way of alignment-indicative stuff from him yet. Most of his play so far has simply involved asking questions (also his 'quick tip' in 17) so I would consider him the de facto IC of this game (the Newbie game kind, when those were still a thing).

faustiv - I would like to see more from them first.

Geyde - I think that 62 is a +town observation, though it remains to be seen whether I will end up agreeing with it or not.

Jamelia - Probably not scum with Airan based on first sentence of 47. I can imagine the rest of that post being said from one scum to another, but not the first bit, I think that would just be way too corny
Individually though, not yet sure what to make of him.

NMSA - 56 feels a little bit reachy imo, but I guess that that can be at least partially justified by it being that early in the game. Nothing else from him pings me though.

Spangled - 61 - "...but

I don’t think I can call [Jamelia] scum over it.

I am not willing to put my vote there just yet, but

I will consider it.

" Seems non-committal and maybe self-contradictory?

Veggie - I notice that, like Jamelia, they also end a lot of their sentences with exclamation marks - how has Spam not picked up on that? But I digress.
66 I will admit is not a bad post, but I wouldn't say that it's "the best question asked so far" as Spangled put it... and Airan agreeing with that is... eh? But again I digress.

So with all that said,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Spangled

i’m not responsible for what happens after this song
why do you think mine are always so long?

- Afterglow,

Nervous Young Man

votecount 2.5

Egix96

(3): faüstiv, Draynth, Spangled

faüstiv

(3): Egix96, eth0s, Jamelia

Not Voting

(1): Geyde

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2019-10-08 12:24:00)

[faüstiv]

eth0s post 748:

I know one thing for absolute certain right now. It isn't an egix/faustiv team. Meaning my Day 1 reads were definitely bad. At least 2/3 wrong on the scum. So the lack of discussion on me today implies that someone wants me to join a mislynch to further ruin my own towncred.

Scum know I'm not a PR for multiple obvious reasons and therefore don't want to nk me

. Seeing as how there's very little effort going towards the wagon that should make the most sense today out of {egix,faustiv} I am inclined to believe that egix is a mislynch and I'm supposed to eat rope tomorrow. There is no reason that a wagon being as uncontested as egix's could be scum at this point and have 0 resistance pointing towards me or faustiv.

all I can figure is that my mason fakeclaim is putting me in a position where scum don't want to touch me today and faustiv is being conveniently let off the hook by town and is scum with a buddy advocating against his death.

How do you know there's a PR left?

[Geyde]

Rereading Spangled/Egix

They've interacted with each other in a way that would draw attention to the two (mainly during d1 with Egix wagoning Spangled, the talk regarding 66).
Additionally, Egix attached himself to the case Spangled made regarding Airan's slot with 213 and 286.

I'm going off of the assumption that Airan's wagon was expected to flip scum, but didn't due to Ethos's performance after replacing in.

If anything, I think only one of them could be scum because in the case of Airan flipping d1.
If Egix is scum with scum spangled, it would make much more sense for him in scumpov to wait until later to join the wagon on Airan instead of restricting their options.
If Egix is scum with a town Spangled, attaching himself to the lynch wagon would give him the ability to deflect onto Spangled's case if Airan's slot flipped v.

Objectively, Egix's play directly disadvantages him severely were they to be scum with spangled. It's not the type of small mistake that scum might make because of scum's tendency to avoid being directly associated with each other like the plague, nor do I think it is something Egix plans in the long game for.
Ergo, I don't think that they are scum with each other.

I don't think he acted the way he did if Airan was scum since his explanation would stick out as bussing to any level of rereading. The wagon flipping onto NMSA wasn't guaranteed, and his progression would look extremely shitty were he to switch off of a wagon that flipped scum in retrospect after fully buying the case.
He basically gets outed after Airan flips and vice versa

[eth0s]

eth0s post 748:

I know one thing for absolute certain right now. It isn't an egix/faustiv team. Meaning my Day 1 reads were definitely bad. At least 2/3 wrong on the scum. So the lack of discussion on me today implies that someone wants me to join a mislynch to further ruin my own towncred.

Scum know I'm not a PR for multiple obvious reasons and therefore don't want to nk me

. Seeing as how there's very little effort going towards the wagon that should make the most sense today out of {egix,faustiv} I am inclined to believe that egix is a mislynch and I'm supposed to eat rope tomorrow. There is no reason that a wagon being as uncontested as egix's could be scum at this point and have 0 resistance pointing towards me or faustiv.

all I can figure is that my mason fakeclaim is putting me in a position where scum don't want to touch me today and faustiv is being conveniently let off the hook by town and is scum with a buddy advocating against his death.

How do you know there's a PR left?

I wasn't aware of setup C1 (this is only my second game on this new game mode) and I admittedly haven't looked at the possible setups since I replaced in. But actually now that you mention it I think this may imply that we are in A1. I need to think on that

[eth0s]

VOTE: spangled

[eth0s]

I'm so lost

[Geyde]

Draynth/Egix seems to be spewed as not a thing since Draynth's 724 and p30 is totally in on the lynch when thread was completely willing to go onto other wagons.
Even though Egix is scummy as fuck individually, there's no partner for him in looking at all other players

[Geyde]

I seriously didn't like how thread has handled Spangled today
Despite the slot not being perfect, the thread shifting that hard onto him just feels like an overreaction.