Open 767: Nomination Mafia [Day 7]

[Joey_]

Hm, she didn't anti-town, she just outed her reads who ended up wrong just like most of the table. Burying scum from your pov isn't that anti-town and it was on the verge of the lynch, so she had town behind her back and mutant was pretty much the designated lynch.

It's true titus has been pretty bad since d2 (and imo d1 was sloppy af). That doesn't make her scum tho. What is the scum agenda in being useless in a lynchpool?

BTw, you have been biased towards your reads since the very beginning with the latest post saying "Titus sounds like giving up scum" which comes from someone trying to confirm their POV.

I'll get to what I'm getting at. We go into the day. Titus is supposed to be the strongest person in the lynch pool, gets self nominated as scum. Norwegianboy just mishammered, and correspondence is afk. EZ mislynches in the bag, free towncred incoming.

Things don't go as planned, no one buys the correspondence thing, and norwegianboy doesn't catch on either. Momentum swings to titus. Scum partners (in union with the rest of the gmae) start calling titus scum and get ready for the bus. Titus as scum with daychat knows she's being bussed, and

starts playing the giving up routine instead of actually fighting like mutant did

. Lines up, doesn't it? And

it's not too crazy of a story

. Doesn't rely on specific associations with any hypothetical partners, and it explains her current behaviour.

What does titus have to do to say she's been set up? She needs to call me scum

.

About mutant;
You didn't unvote nor openly reconsider your read on them when they were "actually fighting" which I pointed as "textbook town, which is how I expect town to react".
Now you are trying to tell me that Titus is, in part, scummy because she is not acting like mutant did when pushed? How exactly do you even expect town from reacting to a push?

About titus story;
Its moon logic & the number of assomptions and leap of faith you need to make in order for that story to make sens is staggering; every assomptions you make next is made to confirm the former.

About the set up;
I dont even recall her calling you scum or a set up

[Menalque]

yeah, basically, but that wasn't me confirming him as scum

I'll admit, there is a possibility I'm confident!biasing here

I thought dong had slightly higher than average scum equity, and I thought the readslist was very political in terms of not wanting to rock the boat

I think there is good reason to believe that a highly political readslist is somewhat more likely to come from someone who doesn't want to upset anyone, ie. someone playing survivalistically, which is exactly what I'd expect someone new to the forums and replacing into a SR slot to be wanting to do

so yes, I was leaning him scum -- the whole purpose of my questioning was to test that assumption. if I had applied pressure and had received better answers about how that readslist came about, I would have changed my read. as it is, the response I got makes me think it is particularly likely that he's scum

the point is not whether a convenient list

can

be from town, it's about probability. and my experience says that's more often from scum ESPECIALLY newbie scum

--

okay, so we disagree about the answers

--

okay, what town purposes might he have been lying or exaggerating for? because the vast majority of the time, lying or exaggerating is not something that benefits town

[Menalque]

NGL joey, if I'm wrong somewhere and suji flips scum you're looking

real

good for partners right about now

the fact that you seem really keen to encourage thinking about what might be possible regarding suji rather than what's likely is a big fat scumping for me

[Joey_]

NGL joey, if I'm wrong somewhere and suji flips scum you're looking

real

good for partners right about now

the fact that you seem really keen to encourage thinking about what might be possible regarding suji rather than what's likely is a big fat scumping for me

Thats because we dont approach the game the same way; this is not a game about probabilities.

Also If i am so invested in trying to encourage you to healthy thinking and to unknots your bias, it's because I am town and I want you on the same page as I am

[Menalque]

yeah the main problem for me is if you do just approach the game completely differently or if you're intentionally doing this to try and protect a buddy

if you are town I'll prob get to there myself in the end, at the moment your mostly in my TRs by virtue of GL and awoo's TRs on you

[Joey_]

Thats pretty silly of you and the buddy theory on me was also mentioned concerning mutant, yet I am acting the same way when I believe someone is being unjustly scumread

[Menalque]

you may benefit from reading this if you want some insight into my perspective and why I consider probability to be maybe the most important thing in the game:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... babilities

[Joey_]

I did skim and its funny because he mentioned Occam's Razor (which I am a big fan of in mafia) and explains it correctly yet arrives at the wrong conclusion IMO.

Occam says that the simplest answer is most likely the correct one.
Yet,

the simplest answer in itself is not necessarily the most probable one

in a given scenario, it only means it requires less assomptions. You can have many simple answers available for a single problem.

He also says that town's job is to push a probable narrative, meh. I think that how mediocre players and mediocre town sees the game, which explains why 85%+ of mafia players are pretty darn unremarkable and have no consistency.

Probability has its uses but if you never look past it, then you are merely a coin flip with no agency.
What the guy also forgets is that probability is also used by scum at lot; since its objective info, is mostly NAI and anyone can easily push an argument with probabilities backing them up.


"Apply Occam's Razor
Use it often. Point out how unlikely combinations are. Point out how many assumptions (especially flawed ones) a theory relies on. Keeping things simple is a guideline I cannot stress the importance of enough in terms of possibilities versus probabilities.

Most remote possibilities flagrantly violate Occam's Razor; most probabilities use Occam's Razor.

"

Thats literraly what I have been doing with you and awoo so it's very obvious that I am applying it. The bolded part is an interpretation of the author and not actually coming from Occam, but it's a general rule of thumb.


Now if you want to apply Occam's to your read:
You would need to assume
- Suji is mafia (lower distribution than mafia)
- Suji lied about having his read list ready
- Suji skimmed or something,
- Suji blabla & i dont remember all your rationale but basically, theres much more than 3 assomptions, correct?

My read:
- Suji is town (more likely distribution of town)
- Suji said the truth

[Joey_]

@Manalque FTR i see I am not the only one who disagree with her

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=71062

[Awoo]

It's so hard to interact with you joey, you seem more focused on pointing out contradictions then engaging.

Of course I'm contradicting myself when I say titus isn't fighting and mutant was fighting and I both called them scum, it's called learning. And how come every time I have an idea it's just bias and moon logic? At least I'm taking stances instead of just randomly defending everybody. I am literally trying to ask you why I should scumread norwegianboy and you skip that post entirely and just poke holes in me. I am aware that I may have "bias", hint, I'm prone to it, and why won't you help me by talking about norwegianboy? DEFEND YOUR OFFENSIVE STANCE!!! I don't give a h*ck about who you're defending if you won't show or at least explain to me the alternative. Otherwise it just looks like you're scum defending VT's for towncred and to get on everybody's good side and that's your whole strategy.

I don't scumread you for any of this. I'm just venting frustration. Maybe I should, but I'm biased towards you being town.

[chennisden]

VC 2.4:

Titus (3)	Awoo 380, Menalque 391, NorwegianboyEE 479
NorwegianboyEE (2)	PMysterious, 492, Joey_ 612
GuiltyLion (1)	Titus 354
Not Voting (4)	pisskop 484, Creature, Dongempire, Correspondence

[Awoo]

Okay, your post about the razor makes a lot of sense. I've been trying to figure things out, I've been trying to figure out why people have been behaving a particular way, and that's apparently wrong because it causes assumptions.

Okay....

.... so how do you play mafia then if you can't figure things out

[Joey_]

It's so hard to interact with you joey, you seem more focused on pointing out contradictions then engaging.

Of course I'm contradicting myself when I say titus isn't fighting and mutant was fighting and I both called them scum, it's called learning. And how come every time I have an idea it's just bias and moon logic? At least I'm taking stances instead of just randomly defending everybody. I am literally trying to ask you why I should scumread norwegianboy and you skip that post entirely and just poke holes in me. I am aware that I may have "bias", hint, I'm prone to it, and why won't you help me by talking about norwegianboy? DEFEND YOUR OFFENSIVE STANCE!!! I don't give a h*ck about who you're defending if you won't show or at least explain to me the alternative. Otherwise it just looks like you're scum defending VT's for towncred and to get on everybody's good side and that's your whole strategy.

I don't scumread you for any of this. I'm just venting frustration. Maybe I should, but I'm biased towards you being town.

True, honestly I am reacting pretty hard to my ADHD med today and I feel like I am being overly rational/in my head about all of this. I skipped your nEE post because I was answering the other posts.

I am a tone reader; nEE tone is pretty crap, all his posts are convenient and underwhelming, not a single piece of content feels like coming from a genuine and unique thought process. His posts feels like rehearsed dialogue, there's just nothing of value in their posts. So out of all the 3 slots in the pool, nEE has my vote + his abysmal hammer

[Awoo]

Do you think that outside of my meme logic titus could be mafia y/n

[Joey_]

Okay, your post about the razor makes a lot of sense. I've been trying to figure things out, I've been trying to figure out why people have been behaving a particular way, and that's apparently wrong because it causes assumptions.

Okay....

.... so how do you play mafia then if you can't figure things out

You can. Like you can easily assume that nEE lack of town value in all their posts is better explained by a scum alignement than a town alignement playing badly/purposefully scummy/null.

Or you can also see that their hammer is again, much better explained by them pursuing scum agenda than anything else; them being town & voting too fast, or being awkward or blabla

[Awoo]

I'm skimming the ISO and I see what you mean, norwegian does have a rather self interested tone throughout pretty much all of today, coming up with nonsense like how he's the mislynch target of the day. It's easy to see there.

Hmm. Yeah. I'll sleep on it.

[Joey_]

Also personnal take; when I make a shit hammer I own up to it and feels really bad for town.

Imagine being town and hammering 6-7 hours before the guy posted + A slot making a huge case minutes after your hammer.. and not showing even once in their post any sign that they are sorry/feel bad/culpability.

Also Norwegianboy you haven't explained why you decided to only wait 7 hours between stating intent and then hammering.

Alright i will admit that i should have waited longer.
But i will mention that i saw you online 3-4 hours after i placed the vote, and you didn't comment anything.

Thats her only post ever admitting she made an error; she admits on the timing of her hammer, not the read itself which is very odd because I would assure you that town would be much more mortified about hammering town (consequence of their actions) than hammering too fast (process of their actions). You need to understand that it's been pages and hours that mutant was pretty much confirmed town in twilight when she said that.

I sort of expected this...
Can nominated players vote for other nominated players?

Her reaction after seeing the flip, still not going back on her behavior, only implying that she was going to be scumread for it, meh

________________________

That being said, on a reread she made a few good posts like 286 but eh

[Joey_]

Do you think that outside of my meme logic titus could be mafia y/n

Maybe

I won't post anymore for the night, soz to everyone who has to read me

[Titus]

I do think it's weird how hard it's proving to lynch Titus

BTW I can spin that logic to nEE about how hard its to flip a scum-claimed slot who openwolfed d1

well, that's simple

Norwegian would be a hell of a lot easier to lynch tomorrow than Titus

like, if this is Titus!sucm, and I'm feeling pretty good that it is, then she's gonna be a fucking nightmare to do if she's not in the lynchpool most probably

if we're wrong on Titus/(PM, suji) Norway becomes a good option to lynch before lylo (assuming 3 scum this game)

Melanque will lynch anyone in the lynch pool. So town.

[Titus]

If you disagree with my reads, feel free to say so and where you disagree. If you don't, then I'm glad we're aligned.

Why would someone agreeing with your reads mean you have the same alignment?

[Titus]

Yeah, I mean I'm going down the playerlist, and I don't think anyone is NOT OK with titus getting lynched today.

Awoo: voting titus

Joey_: "Honestly I don't really mind lynching either Titus or nEE" 552, but prefers nEE

Norwegian: voting titus

Guiltylion: "I'm on board with scum!Titus" 520
Creature: "I could see Titus and PM being scum together." 500
Suji: Titus at the bottom of his readslist

Menalque: voting titus

PMysterious: prefers norwegianboy, "Titus, I'm mixed on." 492, voting norwegianboy

pisskop: was voting titus, currently ???

Red is voting titus

Orange has called titus scum

Yellow is prefers norwegianboy, but doesn't object to titus

What's up with this, eh?

That's a strong indicator I'm town and this was rigged by scum.

go on

Well I'd be speculating as to why but

Scum want a disactive game. They nominate active players and a lurker. The active players they nominated are consensus responsible for the mislynch. Scum attack when we make the protown move to lynch Correspondence or get info (GuiltyLion sub).

What's the lesson? Shut up unless you're 100% sure.

Result: A dead game.

[Titus]

That's a strong indicator I'm town and this was rigged by scum.

Reads like scum giving up. WHO MAFIA?

preach

If you EVER think I give up, you are sorely mistaken. The only time I gave up recently is a case of a confirmed cheater.

Mislynch me, I really don't give a damn but I will fight to the end.

[Titus]

I do think it's weird how hard it's proving to lynch Titus

BTW I can spin that logic to nEE about how hard its to flip a scum-claimed slot who openwolfed d1

well, that's simple

Norwegian would be a hell of a lot easier to lynch tomorrow than Titus

like, if this is Titus!sucm, and I'm feeling pretty good that it is, then she's gonna be a fucking nightmare to do if she's not in the lynchpool most probably

if we're wrong on Titus/(PM, suji) Norway becomes a good option to lynch before lylo (assuming 3 scum this game)

Can we stop with the nonsense appeal to fear?

If Norwegian would be easier than me to lynch tomorrow, he'd be easier than me to lynch today. Yet not a single person hard TRs me.

[Titus]

Flipping a slot who objectively anti-towned and, imo, has one of the worst iso on the whole table on lynchpool day is a GAIN for town because that slot wouldve been pushed regardless if pool day or not

Titus objectively antitowned by burying mutant, and has a pretty terrible iso, even into day 2.

No offense but "town titus" has been exceedingly useless. Join date and reputation don't make you a valuable player.

Yeah, on Wednesdays I work a full day and babysit my Goddaughter. I can't be here for real time interactions. Tomorrow I should be.

[Titus]

This is a circus lmao. Lynch Titus, or lynch me. I don’t really care at this point. Going to sleep now, bye.

VOTE: Norwegian

Ok.