Open 767: Nomination Mafia [Day 7]

[Joey_]

UNVOTE: I am pretty much certain both awoo and TSE are town, i think we should take the day and try to find mafia outside. Who down?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

awoo, you flipping pink or purple doesnt affect me as much as you think


we all mostly agree that all three picks are likely town. its a matter of whom to murder.

tomorrow it will be another battle of wills between melan and I. If we can agree to kill guilty or suji i feel we can make progress. thats my solve guess as of now.

awoo, you flipping pink or purple doesnt affect me as much as you think


we all mostly agree that all three picks are likely town. its a matter of whom to murder.

Ey, finally a decent post.

awoo, you flipping pink or purple doesnt affect me as much as you think


we all mostly agree that all three picks are likely town. its a matter of whom to murder.

tomorrow it will be another battle of wills between melan and I. If we can agree to kill guilty or suji i feel we can make progress. thats my solve guess as of now.

What’s your opinion on All Mafia as Day 2 Wagon Options. (Titus, Lion and Nor)

[TrueSoulEnergy]

@Awoo
You Still haven’t answered why you changed your mind.
You were willing to get lynched over me in the beginning.
So why did it change now?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

UNVOTE: I am pretty much certain both awoo and TSE are town, i think we should take the day and try to find mafia outside. Who down?

Exactly.
Also why I am saying that Lion Lynch could make this game 10X more easy to solve.

[Awoo]

@Awoo
You Still haven’t answered why you changed your mind.
You were willing to get lynched over me in the beginning.
So why did it change now?

I thought you townslipped. Then I learned you didn't. I think you're town. Now it's a matter of pride.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

@Awoo
You Still haven’t answered why you changed your mind.
You were willing to get lynched over me in the beginning.
So why did it change now?

I thought you townslipped. Then I learned you didn't. I think you're town. Now it's a matter of pride.

Wouldn’t it have always been about pride though?
I mean if you knew I was Town and you knew this was an all town option.
You still decided to not want to Lynch me.
It wasn’t until people didn’t believe I was Town and wasn’t buying the Town slip, that you decided it was ok to vote me.
Suji is Scum or like really bad town.
@Suji you should know by now and if it doesn’t take an Einstein to realize this is an all Town Lynch options
The fact your super sure I’m Scum is just LOL.
You thought PM was scum and vote them.
I told you they weren’t but of course I was on you and their was no higher wagon then the two of you. But still.
You should realize that I’d have never put myself as a Lynch option as Scum without you on the option with me.
The fact that you are playing this anti Town makes me Lynch You Over Nor (Assuming Lion Flips Mafia Tomorrow)

[Awoo]

Uh, you don't have the option to lynch me over Nor tomorrow if one of us is dead.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Uh, you don't have the option to lynch me over Nor tomorrow if one of us is dead.

Notice the @Suji

:/

[Awoo]

@TSE Reading your posts is not easy okay :/
--
Awoo Joey TSE Menalque all town but thats only half the game and one is dying today.

Norwegian has lurked and coasted ever since he got nominated, but is most likely to be town out of this bunch due to interactions with titus and friends. After 1 scum flips he gets dragged to the end while we lynch the third of the guys below.

pisskop has increased in quality but at the same time he was being pressured like menalque said. When I say quality I mean his actions are a little nonsensical for a mafia but that's probably what he would try to do as mafia so whatever, man.
GL like I said does a lot of interacting and asking questions and little observations and I can't name off the top of my head what he thinks of the game easily.
Suji wasn't nominated, avoids conflict, and has convenient reads. Also appears high in some people's readslists (GL)


Suji / GL have been townreading eachother, playing nonconfrontational, having consensus reads, and more or less sitting back and I think if we lynch them back to back that's always 1 (or 2) scum dead, because joey = town and awoo = town and if you want to live in clown world, pisskop and menalque as mafia partners don't go at each other's throats today for no reason with the hopes that I will suddenly come to this conclusion so basically killing Suji and GL back to back always kills a mafia, so we don't lose to anyone in F5 LYLO.

F8 TSE dies --> F7 lynch suji/GL -> F6 Awoo dies unless sth crazy happens --> F5 lynch suji/GL --> F4 lynch norway < pisskop --> F3 lynch survivor of norway/pisskop

[TrueSoulEnergy]

@TSE Reading your posts is not easy okay :/
--
Awoo Joey TSE Menalque all town but thats only half the game and one is dying today.

Norwegian has lurked and coasted ever since he got nominated, but is most likely to be town out of this bunch due to interactions with titus and friends. After 1 scum flips he gets dragged to the end while we lynch the third of the guys below.

pisskop has increased in quality but at the same time he was being pressured like menalque said. When I say quality I mean his actions are a little nonsensical for a mafia but that's probably what he would try to do as mafia so whatever, man.
GL like I said does a lot of interacting and asking questions and little observations and I can't name off the top of my head what he thinks of the game easily.
Suji wasn't nominated, avoids conflict, and has convenient reads. Also appears high in some people's readslists (GL)


Suji / GL have been townreading eachother, playing nonconfrontational, having consensus reads, and more or less sitting back and I think if we lynch them back to back that's always 1 (or 2) scum dead, because joey = town and awoo = town and if you want to live in clown world, pisskop and menalque as mafia partners don't go at each other's throats today for no reason with the hopes that I will suddenly come to this conclusion so basically killing Suji and GL back to back always kills a mafia, so we don't lose to anyone in F5 LYLO.

F8 TSE dies --> F7 lynch suji/GL -> F6 Awoo dies unless sth crazy happens --> F5 lynch suji/GL --> F4 lynch norway < pisskop --> F3 lynch survivor of norway/pisskop

Hopefully Mena realizes that Lion is the best Lynch for tomorrow.
Reason I want to live over you.
Is because I don’t know how good Scum is at manipulating and I usually never get manipulated, I usually get miss lynched or end up manipulating myself.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

if this is all town, who's scum? I still think Joey/nEE are town but that leaves Suji/pisskop and I don't know if pisskop goes to bus Suji on D3 in that world

also notice how Lion doesn’t mention Nor.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I don’t know why people connect me with GuiltyLion. He’s been scumreading me and calling all of my posts bad from what i can remember. All scum nominees in D2 would be a misplay by mafia and too obvious. Perhaps 1 or 2 at maximum? But i’m not particurarly scumreading GL. Suji has seemed like town to me for a while, but he hasn’t showed up in a long time now so i don’t know if my TR on him is all that relevant anymore. Still kinda paranoid about about Awoo and Joey, but i trust Menalque and he has this game plan i’m willing to follow so i’m townreading them all for now. Pisskop seems kinda aggressive, or it’s his playstyle, i’m not accousted to the difference between his town and scumplay. I’m still voting TSE simply because his posting style is kinda erratic and annoying. And i think we can solve the game without him.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Also as far as i can see, the only argument you have for voting GL is purely to "sort" me TSE?

[Menalque]

yeah, which is why the plan is lynch you then lynch pk

like, shouting about it isn't really doing shit to change that

if you want to try and sell pk as town for tomorrow give me a reason beyond "I don't think these interactions come from scum"

at a bare minimum, you need to explain why those interactions don't come from scum

in that particular context

Listen. Here’s a reason.
PK flipping Town won’t give us any information.
Then flipping mafia still is a question of who is their buddy.
But with Lion.
Them flipping Town makes Nor Confirmed Town as Mafia would only put 1 or all their members on the 3 Options.
Then flipping mafia means the last mafia is within Nor/Suji

I think pk gives us information. for instance, other people think Suji's scum equity drops significantly with a pk red flip. I haven't fully considered that yet myself because it's getting ahead, but I'll consider it at the time. Also, again, this doesn't particularly matter. So long as joey is town, and the other townies in the game believe that he and I are both town, it's literally a won game after one more flip. we may bicker about the order, but we can keep lynching scum all the way to lylo and then win.

I also disagree with your logic around Lion. Why wouldn't mafia put 2 members in? This just all seems like WIFOM speculation. I don't wanna lynch based on do I think mafia put 1, 2, or 3 people in, I wanna lynch based off play.

Them flipping mafia gives us the exact same plan that I outlined as pk flipping mafia. I don't see any reason why they can't be partners, and I'm happier on pk being scum than I am on GL, so I prefer going pk first.

If I am wrong on pk, then we'll have to see what the lynchpool is like on D6, but I still have quite a lot of faith in joey and I to be able to narrow down the pool on D7 even if there are 2 mafia left then, and also that would give us 40% raw odds of hitting scum.

Are you still delusional.
You and Joey are 2
There are 2 mafia left
Mafia will reach majority and you’ll lose.

I actually fucked my math up, we’d have a 66% chance of hitting scum at random. On D7 if we don’t lynch scum beforehand then there are 2 mafia left and 3 town and anyone can be lynched. If joey and I are treating each other as more or less conf!town (I’ll probably check him one more time there and I’d expect he’d do the same to me, but I don’t think I would change my read on him) then working together we would have a 66.6% chance of hitting scum at random. Using play, that probably goes up to more like 70-75%. Maybe more.

[Menalque]

Okay counterpoint: I already don't think norwegianboy is mafia.

Why do I need to flip guiltylion to confirm that?

Mafia could have pulled the “let’s all wagon ourselves Day 2” play.

yes, they may have, or they may have put two in, or they may have put one in

it's bad logic to assume that it must be either 1 or 3

Nor and Titus’s Conflict determines TVS or SvSvS.

I’ll think about this. It’s a fair point.

@Mena
There’s a difference between Scum and Terrible Town Play.
Learn It.
Don’t vote Bad Town, Vote Scum.

That’s what I’m trying to do with pk. How certain are you that it’s GL?

(1) pk
(2) TSE
(3) kp
(4) EST
(5)ESTkp

That’s stupid.
Don’t know if your joking or you actually think me and Awoo were the only 2 voting for Awoo.
Look at Nor.
Look at Joey. (They were trying to figure shit out not vote)

The fact you make a terrible joke out of this isn’t necessary and just morally wrong.

Lol

[Menalque]

@Mena
You should Lynch Lion tomorrow as PK is weak town.
PK can be solved later on.
PK can be lynched on an even day when you need to sacrifice a town.
Today. Sacrifice Awoo.

That’s assuming pk is ever in the lynchpool on an even day.

Pk is more capable than you’re giving him credit for. Look how much his opposition has done to prevent your lynch.

[Menalque]

What makes you call p60 by TSE obv town?

the important thing here is not to lose focus

we lynch tse today

we lynch pk tomorrow

ideally, that's the end of the game, but failing that we reevaluate and talk things out. if we get one more scum flip, we stick to the plan which I think almost everyone has signed off on which is lynch through PoE up until it's me and joey left at which point we vote whoever the final scum is with us who made it that far

Pk, is Joey scum or derp town? The pain meds are fogging me.

He asks PK out of everyone.

Pk, is Joey scum or derp town? The pain meds are fogging me.

That said, my gut is telling me they are town. But right now I'm not listening to it, possibly because my logical conclusion is that the are scum, possibly out of spite.

Hey pisskop! If you quit voting scum, they'll townread you!

I don’t think you ever say this to a buddy

Here it is.

Yeah TSE no offense but literally all of your posts are near unreadable to me because you keep using phases like "That other guy" and "him" and "you" while quoting multiple people and in such a way where it's ambiguous who you're even talking to in the first place (it changes sometimes mid post???) so like just pretend that I have this disorder where I can't form new memories, and I also damaged the part of my brain that processes third person pronouns

Just read everything, i quoted a few things along the way.
Basically, I disagree with TSE content about pk, i disagree with the non-team read and agree with melan thats it's not AI, but I do believe TSE believes it

Why is he obvious town ? The angles he takes in almost all his posts is almost always from a town pov and he's incredibly consistant about it which is extremely hard to fake. I also agree with lion being probably a better flip for tomorrow than pks, i need to dive pk's iso and his last scum games tho which ill do tomorrow

The post I quoted about awoo is probably his scummiest in the last 10 pages, I still think he's town and that his is a town pool, i still prefer to lynch awoo.

I disagree that being consistent is extremely hard to fake. I have won two scumgames from essentially picking a person to push and then hardpushing non-stop there with town assuming that my certainty was just dumb/tunnelled town. There was also another scumgame I almost won doing the same thing but we were mechanically fucked.

So I disagree that TSE is obv!town.

I also think judging just off today is not great.

By far the towniest thing awoo has done is one of the only things we have confirmed as being towny: namely, pushing titus when it was entirely unnecessary for scum to push her. And then not only doing that, but actively working to build a consensus around getting her lynched. I straight up don’t think that a titus lynch happens D2 without both of me and awoo.

On the other hand, creature/TSE hasn’t done anything that towny that’s confirmable. Is their tone p good today? Yeah, sure, it’s pretty good. But creature didn’t do a lot — sadly, for creature that’s kind of NAI but it’s no reason to TR the slot. The behaviour today is maybe slightly more likely to come from town, but there’s also incredibly strong scum motivation to be as towny as possible here, and one of the easier ways to do that is to pick a line and just stick to it.

[Menalque]

Or both ways, I lynch TSE but you lynch GL

I will think about this, but I’d rather you just listen to my arguments and vote with me on TSE anyway.

If we do do it, then it’s conditional on a TSE greenflip. If TSE flips red then I’m dictating the lynched for the rest of the game.

[Menalque]

Brokering is bad for business because it leads to compromise lynches and it allows scum to play on wifom.

You need to explain why compromise lynches lead to WIFOM.

menal just has to man up and accept that his plan will have to adjust.

I mean, my plan has to adjust if and only if I can’t persuade joey to vote with me sans a commitment to doing GL tomorrow and if I can’t persuade GL to just vote TSE.

[Menalque]

PK is bad town but never Scum with a Lion Mafia Flip.

after the game ends i think you need to do some reflection about your choice of words and actions you took today.

It’s shit like this which does vaguely make me wonder if I’m wrong on pk, because I have had similar thoughts.

[Menalque]

Joey, what are your reads?

Because if I’m your top TR, which I think I am, I’d like you to consider this:

You think awoo and TSE are both probably town.

I think they might both be town, but that TSE actually is prob scum (outside of being in this lynchpool) while I think awoo is town.

If you’re also TRing me, we need to work together, and I’m asking you to trust my read here if you’re close to the same in what you think of both of them.

I remember someone giving me feedback in post game somewhere about why it’s a good idea to trust your TRs if you’re thinking two players are the same alignment and your TR disagrees. I’ll try to find that if you want.

[Menalque]

UNVOTE: I am pretty much certain both awoo and TSE are town, i think we should take the day and try to find mafia outside. Who down?

Nah, disagree. We need to make a decision and move to the next day. Debating but with no ability to pressure and no scum feeling like the could be looking down the barrel of a gun is gonna make it harder to sort. Also it deprives us of the additional info from a flip today.

[Joey_]

"I think they might both be town, but that TSE actually is prob scum (outside of being in this lynchpool) while I think awoo is town"

Basically this, but switch TSE w/ awoo

That being said, one of the reason why I unvoted is because my vote was againts yours, which I think is pretty silly at this point in the game. I am fairly confident both are town and my slight scumread on Awoo vs TSE is not really significant so, if you really want, i will vote with you so we can fight another day

[Joey_]

Like me voting TSE means I consider you locktown because I am overwhelmingly certain hes town

[Joey_]

If hes mafia I really don't mind giving you my vote for the rest of the game lmao