Perfect Masquerade [Game Over]

[Lady 5]

Right before I go, what are your current reads, L7?

[Lady 7]

Even if you don’t believe my case on elements at least believe Mastina and Nacho’s cases on me since they have already flipped town

I don’t know if that would help you but if I was in your situation it would help me

Like this. This is scum Oversoul in endgame, going believe dead town about their town read on me.

It feels like you're doing the same thing.

You might not be, maybe that's not your intention, but that's what it feels like to me.

[Lady 7]

Right before I go, what are your current reads, L7?

I'm late for pilates, answer when I"m back, but scroll up I'm pretty sure I said my reads last night?

[Lady 5]

G3 has spent a lot of time harping on this G6 point in general, but I like this self defense he's doing the least out of everything he's doing.

[Lady 5]

Right before I go, what are your current reads, L7?

I'm late for pilates, answer when I"m back, but scroll up I'm pretty sure I said my reads last night?

Fair.

I'll look when I am back.

[Gentleman 8]

@L7:

L2: Major townvibes. Particularly 3966. If I pick an endgame pair right now, it's this one.

Thoughts?

[Gentleman 3]

G3 has spent a lot of time harping on this G6 point in general, but I like this self defense he's doing the least out of everything he's doing.

Why?

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.3

Gentleman 2 - Lady 9 [0] -
Gentleman 7 - Lady 7 [1] - Gentleman 1
Gentleman 3 - Lady 6 [2] - Gentleman 8, Lady 5
Gentleman 8 - Lady 5 [4] - Lady 6, Lady 9, Gentleman 3, Gentleman 7
Gentleman 1 - Lady 2 [1] - Lady 7

Not Voting [2]

- Gentleman 2, Lady 2

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-11-24 03:40:36)

[Gentleman 7]

The entire pre-dance phase, he's not angling to set himself up with a survivable partner, which I think is one of scum's main goals.

Uhh... I'm pretty sure I was more interested than anyone else in finding a survivable partner.

What? No, I didn't see that at all. Like, it was most explicitly laid out in 1083, but was also kind of said in a bit softer manner beforehand.
To me, it felt like you were trying to make T/T pairings that may or may not include you, and you didn't really care either way.

Could you point out what you were doing that was the opposite of that? Because around that area was what really started solidifying things for me.

Waking up to nothing from g8 is disappointing.

I know that people want lynches to be held accountable, but maybe we should discuss leaving strategies at least among the pairs that have suspicions rather than hope we get enough lynches.

My biggest concern though is the g3 and l9 pairing because they’re not going to leave.

I mean this game is probably a wash and a loss anyway, but it’d be nice if we could forceone scum pairing out at least.

Why wouldn't G2 leave (I assume you mean him, not G3/L6) later on? But there's no reason for him to do that yet.

Soooo the game is pretty stagnant, we haven’t come to a decision for a lynch, and I do t think I’m in a town/town pair anyway. I’m seriously considering leaving tonight before I head to bed. That gives you guys 3 days and a couple flips to work with.

Don't, I will go instead.

I don't know for sure, I feel bad because what if I'm wrong and G1 is Town but honestly I do trust you L7 and I think G1 is more likely scum than G7. I would hate to be wrong though! I agree that the game seems like an uphill battle from here at best and it would feel really terrible to not even force out one scum but I do actually think G1 is more likely scum than G7.

Still want L9 gone. I guess if I'm wrong and G1 is Town then I don't even know, but certainly if he's scum that pair will have to go.

I hope you recover well from your cold.

Edit: I won't leave for the next 12 hours which I guess means I

will

leave tomorrow morning unless there's a very compelling reason not to do so. Sound good?

I just don't really know. I was suspicious of G7 early on, but then he made a couple posts I thought were better, but I just don't get many town feels there. He just doesn't feel town. The day of the first dance, I checked into the qt to say hi and that Monday was busy for me and I'd not likely be around. He viewed it but didn't check in himself, which I thought seemed like maybe he was nervous and didn't know what to post. L3 told him that I was going to give him an update (I'm not sure why L3 told him that really) and he said okay I'll keep refreshing the page. But didn't say to her that I'd already checked in and said I wouldn't be around, and he didn't ask me for the update I was apparently going to give him. I kept checking from work to see if he was around and wanted to chat and noticed the numbers kept going up, so I posted something about that. Quite frankly it was weirding me out because the views kept rising with no comments, so I wondered if mafia got the qt to look at for all their pairs. Anyway, he did respond to that with some reads, which sounded fine. (Though he did have G3 as a light dunno town read, which somewhat reads weird now with how confident he is on that read.)

After the town implosion, I posted a couple times about my reaction to the implosion, and he responded, but he threw in a hopefully you're town remark, which just felt weird in the post. Like it felt like when your neighbor is scum and they're trying to make it look like they're reading you and are paranoid but something feels off about that? '

We haven't really talked much in the qt, but it just felt off from the start.

See so that's nothing really tangible, just a kind of sense that he's trying to post what he thinks town him would post like rather than him being town and posting. Oh he also thought that G6 looked scummy because he thought L8 was probably scum but didn't want to leave the dance until second dance after he caught scum, which also felt like a bit of fake paranoia.

So yeah I just really don't know and maybe my concerns there are silly but it feels really unlikely I'm with town right now.

I didn't check in immediately, if that's what you mean, because I was reading through the thread at the time. As for L3, I don't really know why it would be useful to tell her you weren't around, and I kind of thought you didn't really care. I'd already read the thread, so I didn't need an update. I was just refreshing the page in case you happened to be around.

As for G3, he was on the weaker side of my townreads initially but he went up due to the fact that the rest of them all got themselves killed.


@G3, I'm curious about what's been going on in your PT, though. Do you want to talk about it?

[Gentleman 3]

Spoiler: me being survivalistic

I’m interested g3

If we hypothetically pair and are T/T (and don't die at intermission), do you think the odds are good that we can survive till endgame?

If not, I'd want you to pair with someone with whom you can survive till endgame.

What makes me most nervous about his approach is that he has hinted that he'd like his partner to be chosen for him

I never said this, I want other people's input but if I do intend to survive to endgame I'm not going to pair with someone I don't townread.

From the second half of that post, I basically want to know if people are going to try to lynch me or not.

If they can confidently tell me they aren't, I will probably offer to L7.

Yeah I'm not asking L7. She'd probably just leave on me if town.

Is it because you dont townread her, or because you both are scum?

I don't townread her as confidently as I would like (enough to bet the game on it), and I don't know how confidently the town as a whole townreads her.

Oof the survivability makes me want to throw up.

Also um... you realize that townies need to survive for town to win? If I'm going to be lynched anyway, it doesn't matter who I pair with. It only matters if people won't lynch me, and in that case I want a town partner who won't walk out on me.

You want to make it to endgame, im starting to think its because youre scum.

It's because of math. For any other pair to make it to endgame, we could lose because the gent in that pair is scum, or we could lose because the lady in that pair is scum.

If my pair makes it to endgame, we lose only if the lady is scum. That straight-up halves our chance of losing.

I'm not saying I necessarily should make it to endgame, but it's the most important thing to consider in deciding who to pair with, because let's be real. Probably none of the other unpaired gents are going to live to endgame. So if I'm NOT making it to endgame, it doesn't MATTER who I pair with. Endgame potential is the most salient factor in my decision.

You aren't townread enough for me/you to work out. I think it's pretty clear.

Honestly, not really. I just saw that you got G4 to change his thought process.

I havent changed mine, you are way too worried about staying alive. The only townie that should have that mentality is the IC. The rest comes from scum.

News flash.

Town doesn't win unless townies survive. I don't know if this has occurred to you.

You should actually read the posts. I'm not going to go through explaining the entire thing again.

[Lady 2]

I'm not okay with my pair going first. I think doing so dooms us to a loss because of a double town lynch taking out too many town voices, though Gent 2 has been pretty quiet. Still, I think we should wait for Gent 2 to come in and lead us in a direction at this point.

Lady 2, what's the link between me and Gent 1? I think you're confirmation biasing a bit there. What has gentlemen 8 posted that is town indicative instead of just being null/catchup posting/shading other people (and they've disappeared again)? I'm confused as to the direction this game is taking

You and G1 have both been too interested in lynching G8/L5 first in Second Dance. Maybe because of that I am too paranoid that they're actually one of our remaining T-T pairs because otherwise it's not that they've been super readable, though actually G8 seems kind of okay right now. Not something I'd like to stake the game on but there's no one pair I feel comfortable staking the game on as T-T to be honest. If I had to, gun to my head, I'd have L7-G7 and L5-G8 in, though you could probably WIFOM me between L5-G8 and G3-L6 as the better endgame shot at T-T right now, which basically means I want G1 and L9 out first and then figure it out from there unless I was so wrong that those were both T-T pairs in which case I'd just suck at scumhunting this game, which I can't rule out.

Like if L5 is not scum she was hella lynchbait, no? And you yourself, L9, never scumread L5. And if G8 was really low activity due mainly to out-of-game stuff like illness ... yes it's bad that they have all that baggage and they're not super easy to read. But you know what, it's not like I've seen much useful or readable from you since ... since you accepted G2's invitation to the dance? Really.

And your strong pushback against me telling L5 to not just up and leave before new G8 has a chance to say anything useful and maybe readable ... no. Stop asking me what G8 has done that's Town. I'm not sure he is. He hasn't done that much. But I'm sure as hell actively and specifically scumreading you for the way you pushed back against the idea that they shouldn't go immediately as a given, essentially. I don't see why you would take that perspective if you're Town. And if you're scum, mayyyybe you're trying to preserve your own longevity by bussing a slot that's been thought of as completely compromised for a long time, seeing little downside to it because probably L5/G8 gets lynched, there's a scumflip, you're still fine yourself. Or maybe you're just securing a T-T lynch that you think is kind of a freebie.

G1 spent all his time First Dance scumcasing L5 and shading G6. But I don't really think those were real. The L5 stuff was all for the lynchbaity stuff she's done. It's like he was casing complete busywork.

Actually I should mention when suicide pacts came up yesterday, like right when G4 and G6 were doing their whole "come at me bro" stuff he started saying "hey, should I make one of these with L5 to get the pair out of the game" which ... yeah I don't know what to make of that except to think that L5 would have done a suicide pact with anyone in a reliable manner is just MOONBEAMS level. I'm not staking a Townread on that being a real desire for a suicide pact with L5 on his part.

I really really don't think you're Town, L9. And I don't

really

think G1 is Town either at this point.

VOTE: Gentleman 2/Lady 9

Look the chances of you being lynched as first pair out in this phase are low because I'm pretty likely to leave dance tomorrow morning. Then you'll get my flip, more importantly (given I don't think anyone has a strong scumread on me at the moment?) you get G1's flip. If G1 is Town and I screwed up, that's my mistake as much as anyone's for me leaving and I'm not exactly sure what the game looks like except I guess you'd have to put more scrutiny on people who pushed us as the first lynch for this phase?

But certainly if he's scum, by no means let L9 live to endgame.

[Gentleman 3]

@G3, I'm curious about what's been going on in your PT, though. Do you want to talk about it?

It's dead silent. L6 has barely been around and I'm not trying to sort her, nor do I intend to conceal anything from town, so I have no reason to post there.

[Lady 9]

Can you go over why a scum G1 makes me look bad?

[Lady 7]

All right, I'm around until my dinner's done and then I've got to get some real life work done before bed.

[Lady 7]

I didn't check in immediately, if that's what you mean, because I was reading through the thread at the time. As for L3, I don't really know why it would be useful to tell her you weren't around, and I kind of thought you didn't really care. I'd already read the thread, so I didn't need an update. I was just refreshing the page in case you happened to be around.

I didn't really care about you telling L3 that I wasn't around; it just all goes to the sense that I had of you related to the neighborhood.

[Lady 9]

Are you going to leave the dance before you head to bed?

[Lady 7]

Right before I go, what are your current reads, L7?

I'm late for pilates, answer when I"m back, but scroll up I'm pretty sure I said my reads last night?

Fair.

I'll look when I am back.

@L7:

L2: Major townvibes. Particularly 3966. If I pick an endgame pair right now, it's this one.

Thoughts?

G2 is town duh

L2 is the strongest read I have for town. I've liked her presence all game, but it's been in the second dance that I've started actually thinking of that as a town read instead of liking the player around read.

L6 is a light town read. This read is backed up by how sure G6 and L8 felt about her as well as me being pretty sure I know who she is due to G6 giving clues to her identity. I have a hard time reading her and usually read her based on her pushes and interactions, which hasn't really been toooo present this game except for believing that G8 is scum because of how he chose dance partners. Anyway she, if I'm right on her, hasn't played in any way that I've seen her play as either alignment before but she's made some remarks about real life issues, so. But even so I think overall she's been a bit agenda less, even if I don't agree with her reasoning for the G8 scum read. I do have some paranoia here that G3 waited to ask anyone because he was waiting for L6 to become active so they could be a scum/scum pair. But while I felt pretty strongly about that predance, I don't really buy it anymore.

I wish I had more town reads I felt somewhat comfortable with.

Earlier I was in part town leaning L5 because she was such a mess. And by mess I mean the bestest mafia player every of course. It was basically a scum really wouldn't act like this really? Would they? I didn't really read her posts all that much because I thought for sure she'd be left out of the dane due to her behavior, but. Anyway I don't know how much I should town read the mess because maybe it's personality? But anyway a lot of the posts I did read, I just couldn't believe she actually believed what she was saying. So IDK here.

I had a theory that G8 might be town because he asked L5 to dance. Predance it was widely accepted that if L5 was asked to the dance, that pair would be lynched immediately as a policy lynch. My thought was that even though G8 wasn't around, he'd had a mafia qt and they'd tell him to choose anyone but L5 because he'd be gone right away. But then G8 stayed missing, so.

L9 I've had some light suspicion on for a good portion of the game. She started out strong and analytical, but then kinda disappeared. She made a post sometime predance where she said she thought the IC should direct the pairs and when he says go she goes, etc, which felt like pandering to the IC. IDK maybe we all have different ways we feel the IC should be approached. She opened up dance with a vote on G5, which looked in large part to be sheeping the g6 read that he had softened on. More recently I think the concerns that G8 could be coached feel off.

I've had concerns about G1 most of the game for what looks mostly like busywork posting. Unfortunately he's been behind this whole time so it's been hard to get a concrete feel. I didn't quite like the reaction to the concerns that he was busywork posting.

I liked G3's game presence all game but that never quite translated into a town read the way L2 did. I think with G3 my biggest concern was that he had this idea for how the game should pan out with pairs, but he was mostly just concerned with how it would affect himself. He does look and is super survivalistic, my wonder here is would scum be so open about their process in that way? Often times scum would be a little more self-aware of how they're coming across in being so survivalistic, so would he try to be more subtle about that? (I'm not depending on G6 for this read because I don't have any clue for an alt there and it seemed like G6's read was based partly on an alt guess, that I can't be sure he's correct on, and he gave that strong town read at first when he was tunneling on G5 and G5 was suspecting G3. I know he continued that read into dance 1 though.)

G7 for the most part has felt pretty flat for me all game. There are a few posts that I liked, but a lot of the early posts were mostly mechanical based. I don't have a smoking gun, it's just a tonal gut thing, and without knowing his main I just don't know if this is personality based on alignment based. But the likelihood I'm in a town/town pair feels pretty low.

[Lady 9]

I've been okay to lynch Gent 1 this whole phase, and I believe I said as much. Lady 2 has been willing to leave the dance all phase, pretty much, which makes that a low priority lynch anyway. Gent 8/Lady 5 aren't leaving the dance, though, so we have to lynch them the hard way

[Lady 7]

Are you going to leave the dance before you head to bed?

G8 asked for 12 hours before anybody left. I'll give him the night, and check in in the morning and me and L2 can duke it out over who gets to leave first in the morning

[Lady 7]

I do think it's important that we have someone leave soon though. The people left need enough time to discuss who is going next and we don't have much time.

[Gentleman 7]

Spoiler: me being survivalistic

I’m interested g3

If we hypothetically pair and are T/T (and don't die at intermission), do you think the odds are good that we can survive till endgame?

If not, I'd want you to pair with someone with whom you can survive till endgame.

What makes me most nervous about his approach is that he has hinted that he'd like his partner to be chosen for him

I never said this, I want other people's input but if I do intend to survive to endgame I'm not going to pair with someone I don't townread.

From the second half of that post, I basically want to know if people are going to try to lynch me or not.

If they can confidently tell me they aren't, I will probably offer to L7.

Yeah I'm not asking L7. She'd probably just leave on me if town.

Is it because you dont townread her, or because you both are scum?

I don't townread her as confidently as I would like (enough to bet the game on it), and I don't know how confidently the town as a whole townreads her.

Oof the survivability makes me want to throw up.

Also um... you realize that townies need to survive for town to win? If I'm going to be lynched anyway, it doesn't matter who I pair with. It only matters if people won't lynch me, and in that case I want a town partner who won't walk out on me.

You want to make it to endgame, im starting to think its because youre scum.

It's because of math. For any other pair to make it to endgame, we could lose because the gent in that pair is scum, or we could lose because the lady in that pair is scum.

If my pair makes it to endgame, we lose only if the lady is scum. That straight-up halves our chance of losing.

I'm not saying I necessarily should make it to endgame, but it's the most important thing to consider in deciding who to pair with, because let's be real. Probably none of the other unpaired gents are going to live to endgame. So if I'm NOT making it to endgame, it doesn't MATTER who I pair with. Endgame potential is the most salient factor in my decision.

You aren't townread enough for me/you to work out. I think it's pretty clear.

Honestly, not really. I just saw that you got G4 to change his thought process.

I havent changed mine, you are way too worried about staying alive. The only townie that should have that mentality is the IC. The rest comes from scum.

News flash.

Town doesn't win unless townies survive. I don't know if this has occurred to you.

You should actually read the posts. I'm not going to go through explaining the entire thing again.

I mean, I see these, and it just makes me feel like I'm not seeing it? Yes, you do feel like you're trying to get in a good pairing, but to me, it feels like you're not prioritizing it over making a strong town pairing, even if that doesn't include you.

VOTE: Gentleman 2/Lady 9

Look the chances of you being lynched as first pair out in this phase are low because I'm pretty likely to leave dance tomorrow morning. Then you'll get my flip, more importantly (given I don't think anyone has a strong scumread on me at the moment?) you get G1's flip. If G1 is Town and I screwed up, that's my mistake as much as anyone's for me leaving and I'm not exactly sure what the game looks like except I guess you'd have to put more scrutiny on people who pushed us as the first lynch for this phase?

But certainly if he's scum, by no means let L9 live to endgame.

I mean I agree with this, but I'm of the opinion that L9 should be the last scum to die.
And for G2, I just want to make sure you're on the same page here, that you should probably leave at some point, but not until at least one of the mafia is dead.


Anyways, it's quite likely that I'm not going to be around much longer, and I don't think trying to fight that will be very productive, given what time is left.
My opinions:
L2 Town. My townread on her has gotten better since 2nd dance. Although that's largely irrelevant, because...
G1 Scum. I just don't feel that good about him in general, giving a weak case on me in order to pivot away from his previous scumreads. He also doesn't really feel like he's trying to solve or move town forward.
G3 Town. I still think he's been looking out for things that benefit town, regardless of whether they benefit him or not.
L6 Town enough. I don't really feel that strongly on her compared to my other townreads but among the weaker people in each pairing, I think she's the towniest of them.
L5 Town. This is also because of finding out the original player's identity, which I feel a bit dirty about, but while her opinions had been bad, I think they had been honest and consistent with this player's meta.
G8 ??? I don't think anything at this stage can convince me one way or another and I don't really want to have the game hinge on a coin toss on if he's town or scum.
L9 scum. I don't see why scum wouldn't kill this pair if it was two townies.

[Lady 7]

Now i feel like he's town.

[Gentleman 1]

I really feel like we are past due for something to happen and at this point I feel like I am the one who has to make things happen.

I think a handful of people have expressed real suspicion of L2, can anyone who has speak up about why? I feel like leaving is the best way to set things off in the right direction and because of that I want to pursue this lead that feels rather untouched despite my pair being put on the chopping block for a long time. I have seen people pushing my pair and me but not L2, at least not to any real degree. Her name has been thrown out but not really discussed to much I believe.

I intend to remain awake for probably three or four hours but expect some motion or significant response to my ideas within one or two. We are over halfway to the end and nothing has been done. That needs to change.

[Gentleman 2]

L7 thanks for the pity post there, and theres no sarcasm in that, you were the only one to respond.

Reminds me of christmas my junior year in high school, one of the girls in my friend group was having a party and invited everyone, expect me. One of my close, at the time, friends stuck up for me and a few days before another boy and myself got late invites, to keep the numbers even for the gift exchange of course. So now I had a choice to make, do I skip the party and say fuck them, but in doing that I would fuck over the other kid with no gift coming his way and id do what sit at home? Or I could set my pride down and look at it like this, those bitches didnt want me there in there first place, imma do me and have fun they can do them and it is what it is. I don't feel like I had a horrible coming of age story, it was pretty basic. I was shitty at some points in my history but they have all brought me to a place where I am now and I can't complain about a single thing because of a single thing in my life. I feel like I stuck up for myself a good bit and was never tied to anyones whipping post, but to go back knowing all the shit i know about the world and about myself? Shhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

[Gentleman 2]

Who should i sheep and why?

Someone vie for my patronage.