Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Kerset]

Eh I misread leaning for learning. Forget this.

[Kerset]

Yay page 100!

[Kerset]

probably not, you were not super townread yesterday

Could we state this? Was he townreaded or not? I want everyone to say what did they think about s_s after d2. That's quite relevant for solving this case.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really think rb was that townread either. Obviously scum were at least partially aiming for PR's there, so I think it makes sense that they might hit me.

[Wooper]

Hi

[Wooper]

We shld probably lynch Flubz this phase pals
I know this is weak reasoning but it's +1'd by policy

[Wooper]

Actually it's not even policy. He's been playing like a scum pgo and he claimed pgo.

[Wooper]

Flubbernugget {

pgo

, -}

rb {

cop

, ???}

Sirfetchd {

Jailkeeper

, ???}
Something_Smart {

JOAT

, perfvig?}
AaronFrost {

UniBackup (cop)

, doc/rb}

Xayah {???, ???} - vt

skitter30 {

gunsmith

, n2 vig}
Kerset {

Commuter

, watcher}
Adorable {cop, gunsmith} - vt
wooper {

n2 vig

, watcher}
Sujimichi {neighbouriser, watcher} - vt
Luca Blight {perfvig, n2 vig} - vt

nomnomnom {???, ???} - vt
Billy Pilgrim {???, ???} - goon

we did well friends

[Kerset]

Hey! You messed up my pick.

[Wooper]

So just in case anyone didn't pick it
Sirf crumbed a save at the start of the day p sure before my vigclaim and followed thru w the Flubz guilty
Flubz largely lurked d1-2 (totally understand the reason he needed to lurk & hope everything is going OK - he's not the type of player to just lay back as either alignment - still a p quiet d1-2)

From a town pgo I'd probably expect like.. more effort to draw a scum NK? I think his slot had high investigation equity but pretty low NK equity; from someone with enough self-awareness to steer the way they're perceived at least slightly, I think this is scum motivated. see e.g. almost50 in the pypx/y I ran or at least what his plan wae

Few other reasons the NK might have happened:-
1) scum targeted Xayah (lol)
2) scum targeted SS (less funny but still improbable)
3) scum targeted Kerset (kinda pushing on lol territory)
4) scum shot Flubz (very unlikely

say probabilities are like, in the 5-10% probability range, the world where Sirf correctly blocked the scum NK is still the most likely by a fairly big margin.


By that token don't expect that sirf is lolbussing Flubz



I think SS picking joat makes a lot of sense. That crumb is indeed unambiguous. I can see town!SS copping rb who is almost policycoppable. This does give an alibi to the n1 kill but still not sure it's coming from scum

Aaron is town, happy to explain this

skitter I can see doing this as either alignment tbqh. I had a reasonably strong reason for thinking she was town yday but I kinda forgot it. I might need to reread some. Regardless the most concerning thing I *think* is how difficult her n1 result crumb is to follow

Kerset ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Adorable is townposting imo and those picks are loltowny and somewhat likely so I'm just gonna hope this read is right bc they're getting townier rather than less towny - actually I like Kerset's read on this slot

Suji ....... I'm not really sure this phase

Luca still very probtown



pedit: I did? D:

[Wooper]

oops I totally did
this is why you get the guy with a brain the size of an apricot to organise claims

[Kerset]

Kerset {UniBackup,

Commuter

}

I made this for you >.<

[Kerset]

I didn't commute on n2 and i am alive so i wasn't targeted.

[AaronFrost]

So for some reason I thought Thursday was the 22nd and I only needed V/LA until Thursday.

Catching up now.

[AaronFrost]

i'm gunsmith
(my second pick was n2 vig)

n1 - aaron; has no gun
n2 - ss; no result

Guess this explains skitt's sudden read change on me. Kind of confused as to why she changed stances on me midday though.

[Something_Smart]

There's also a "scum no-killed" option somewhere in there, either for shits and giggles or out of complete apathy.

[AaronFrost]

gunsmith innos in this game aren't really hard innos; at that point i was still kinda scum-reading him on play but wasn't particularly interested in pushing him given the result, so he ended up ~nullscum

given the cop claim he's p much clear now tho

This actually makes sense if skitt thought there was a chance of me being a scum doc.

What was with the 'Aaron might be a N2 vig' then?

[Something_Smart]

Btw my second choice was gunsmith, I would never take a purely vig role and I only took this one because it has a lot of good not-vig powers and I really didn't want scum to have it.

[Wooper]

Flubbernugget {

pgo

, -}

rb {

cop

, ???}

Sirfetchd {

Jailkeeper

, perfvig}
Something_Smart {

JOAT

, gunsmith}
AaronFrost {

UniBackup (cop)

, doc/rb}

Xayah {???, ???} - vt

skitter30 {

gunsmith

, n2 vig}
Kerset {UniBackup,

Commuter

}
Adorable {cop, gunsmith} - vt
wooper {

n2 vig

, watcher}
Sujimichi {neighbouriser, watcher} - vt
Luca Blight {perfvig, n2 vig} - vt

nomnomnom {???, ???} - vt
Billy Pilgrim {???, ???} - goon

[AaronFrost]

Unless someone wants to argue Xayah was scum kill ofc. but I think we all decided that was just duck's vig and not a double shot.

If Xayah was somehow actually the scum kill I'm gonna laugh in post.

[Kerset]

Unless someone wants to argue Xayah was scum kill ofc. but I think we all decided that was just duck's vig and not a double shot.

If Xayah was somehow actually the scum kill I'm gonna laugh in post.

ech i kind of made a theory based on that

[AaronFrost]

Skitter did mention in the other game she was scum and she had to bus her scum partner for acting scummy.

With Billy being a vanilla goon, I could definitely see scum bussing here if they felt Billy was inevitable. I'll reread Day 1 at some point to see how skitt reacted to the Billy wagon.

[AaronFrost]

Actually I have another theory. It is not the best one but raises the chance of innocent flub.
In the truth wooper is vengeful not vigi. Scumteam killed xaya to clear his role and wooper is the one who performed fractional kill on n2. Skitter was the one who made n1 kill. Skitter was unlikely to be tracked but on n2 it was better for wooper to be tracked.

In any case Aaron looks to be inno. Sorry man I was wrong.

If this were the case then what motivation would scum skitter have to clear me today?

Eh I'm wrong about most of my reads so it's cool.

[AaronFrost]

probably not, you were not super townread yesterday

Could we state this? Was he townreaded or not? I want everyone to say what did they think about s_s after d2. That's quite relevant for solving this case.

I was still townreading him D2, but it wasn't as strong as it was D1.

[Something_Smart]

Didn't skitter win as scum by clearing a townie recently?