Perfect Masquerade [Game Over]

[Lady 5]

The impression that G8 is more likely scum than I am.

[Gentleman 1]

Since we know that both of G7's scumpartners are in his scum-pairing lists, suddenly G1 is close to confirmed scum just based on how the two of them keep talking to each other.

I think it's quite likely that they were specifically playing to have one of the two endgame after the other flips.

My main question is how G7 expects to win in the case that it's on him to carry the game, considering he has to pivot away from his specific plan or he's at a severe disadvantage when it's just his pairing and G3/L6.

It seems like your perspective here is that I wanted to be townread for pushing G7. I want you to take a look at my approach following G7’s flip and tell me if that is still what you believe. Because I feel that is strong evidence you have the wrong impression here.

[Lady 9]

What does that even mean?

[Lady 2]

Waiting on G1 in PT for just one thing

[Gentleman 1]

It means I feel like I clearly was not trying to take credit for his flip. To make this clear, by the way, I will not take a response of “you did not want to look too blatant about it” or something similar kindly, at least from L5, because that does not seem to be the thinking she is going with here.

[Lady 2]

...

[Lady 9]

L9 certainly does not win by being the last scum alive, at this point that seems like a no-win situation for her. So considering that it seems like a bad move to get rid of one of the people who could carry that burden for her.

Gentleman 7 was unlikely to endgame even before that point, not with the amount of heat on him that he had.

The scumteam needs to try to bring another player to endgame.

Who really suspected G7 before I did, honestly? I think at least during this phase I was the first one to really point the finger that direction.

[Lady 2]

Possible pairs:

G1/G8
G1/L5
G1/L9
G8/L5
G8/L9
L5/L9

G1/G8: seems unlikely based on what I saw in G7's stuff on Day 1.
G1/L5: Like I said, G1 said he wanted to suicide pact with her Day 1 in our PT. This never seemed likely to progress to anything (I mean he only brought it up once G6 and G4 were discussing suicide pacts, that's how it came up?) but does he even say that if they're buddies along with G7? Maybe I guess?
G1/L9: BIG PARANOIA BABY
G8/L5: would hurt so so much if I settled on G1/L9 and I was wrong. Is it remotely possible that the scumteam would

not

kill L9 if BOTH L5 and G8 were scum? Nahhhhh.
G8/L9: Also plausible I think.*
L5/G9: Maybe also plausible?

Okay looking at things it's just SO SO HARD to believe L9 isn't scum here just looking at pairs. It's either a pair with her or G1/L5 I think.

*okay I typed the pairings stuff up a few hours ago and then realized I wanted to see what other people had to say about pairs before I posted it, I think L5 made a decent point about G8/L9 maybe being less likely but I can reevaluate in a bit pending flip

Let's cut to the chase. I think L9 is scum and I want to see the flip. If I'm super wrong, a portion of the blame to me for the loss I'm sure, there's plenty to go around and whatever.

G2, I say you leave dance ASAP.

[Gentleman 1]

That is the most I really talked about that, and I never brought up anything about clearing me for that.

Now that you bring that post back up, I see something questionable in the post I responded to there. L5, you seem to have already formed your impression on how the G7 flip implicates me at that point. So I would like to ask why you only cared to bring it up at this point specifically? Something tells me you are scum who wanted to control the lynch order and as such did not bring up a point that town would likely mention in the interest of full disclosure.

[Gentleman 1]

Can someone actually summarize what all the players who flipped during first dance and intermission pushed as their solve? One thing I have considered is the possibility that their views might be key to solving this game, but I really do not want to try and figure that out myself. I think I have made my contempt for that part of the game clear.

[Lady 2]

????

You think it's key to solving the game but have too much contempt to do it yourself???

Get it together dude!

[Gentleman 1]

If I try to read that again I am probably going to start to hate the game again. I guess I could try just isolating each person I want to look at, that might make it more bearable.

[Lady 2]

...

I'm going to bed. Of course now I'm really wakeful instead of sleepy. So it goes.

G2, I still want you to leave dance as soon as possible.

[Gentleman 1]

So my first step was checking L3, though I just checked her last page of posts in the isolated view to narrow the scope I was working with and avert issues I have had with using the isolation view in the past. I don’t think I need to pull any quotes to make my points but here is what I think.

First, I think it is feasible that the intermission kill was chosen because those two had a good chance of solving the game.

Second, I jumped to a point in the game to get some context for one of L3’s posts and by doing that I somehow feel even more confident about who G6 is, despite already feeling pretty sure. Given that I rate G6’s ability to solve the game rather highly up to a certain point, so I think when I look him over I will invert my tactic and only look at the beginning of his isolated view, since after my perceived drop in his capabilities, I do not think he really gets his full abilities back.

[Lady 5]

That is the most I really talked about that, and I never brought up anything about clearing me for that.

Now that you bring that post back up, I see something questionable in the post I responded to there. L5, you seem to have already formed your impression on how the G7 flip implicates me at that point. So I would like to ask why you only cared to bring it up at this point specifically? Something tells me you are scum who wanted to control the lynch order and as such did not bring up a point that town would likely mention in the interest of full disclosure.

This is a very strange post considering that I was specifically responding to you saying that L9 wouldn't bus a partner of hers.

With how heavily G7 got turned on shortly before he was removed from the game, it's not an unreasonable assumption that the scumteam wouldn't look to him to endgame for them regardless of who else is scum. That doesn't necessarily implicate anybody in that specific scenario, it is only more relevant now because both of the pairings that were in his town list are flipped.

[Lady 9]

Town is going to lose if G2 leaves, since I'm town.

Why is G1/G8 unlikely?

[Lady 5]

I don't understand that either.

[Lady 9]

Lady 2 the big question is if I'm scum who is my partner, I don't get why you want me to die before figuring that out? Like, if you've made up your mind, seeing my flip isn't going to bring new info. And I was kind of expecting more written than just "Big paranoi" and "plausible" twice

Can you talk about the G7 stuff you're looking at day 1, how does that relate to a G1/G8 pair?

I think L5 made a decent point about G8/L9 maybe being less likely but I can reevaluate in a bit pending flip

Why do you need my flip to reevaluate? Shouldn't you be doing this all now?

It's not like g2 is going to flip scum

[Lady 9]

Is it remotely possible that the scumteam would not kill L9 if BOTH L5 and G8 were scum? Nahhhhh.

How would L5 and G8 being a scum pair relate to my pair dying at night or not?

[Lady 9]

Not surprised. We should focus on who is town today, we can probably win with 1 t-t pair. I like 3-6 right now. And my pair, naturally.

Now that we're down to 5 pairs left I'm hard eyeing pair 7-7 and thinking it's not likely for this pair to be 2 town (with the knowledge that I'm town)

In the sense that only 1 other pair can be t-t

[Lady 9]

Like you guys have to realize I've been pushing the same 3 pairs all phase, I've just been switching based on "which pair would be hardest to lynch, and which is willing to leave on their own"

[Lady 5]

I'm convinced.

I'm prepared to leave, G2. I think your pair is the TvT pair currently, but I will stay to talk if you need more.

[Lady 9]

Oh man oh man, Lady 2 is scum. Wow. She's with Gent 8. And looking back at her play during this phase, it makes a lot of sense.

OK, so here's what I'm seeing, going all the way back to the start of this dance phase, I'm casing this:

So looking at the pairs we have, I also don't have a strong bead on two T-T pairs. Not even one right now, honestly.

Excited but also horrified that old!L5 says G8 has posted in their PT but not in the thread????

I keep going back and forth on G1 myself. He's been okay in PT I guess.

I ... L9 voting L5/G8 over my pair is worrisome. I'm starting to think it would be better if my pair was kicked out first. If G8/L5 is T-T we're in a deep hole, though I guess the same is true if G1 is in fact Town and we're lynched first.

Her first real post of the day and she opens up by talking about how town is in a pickle if one of her pair or gent 8/lady 5 are town. But, she also doesn't really think that, apparently.

I'm paranoid now that L9 is actually scum with G1? But if that were true would she even be investing in getting the other pair lynched first?

I need to do more thinking, clearly. If my paranoia (?) that L5/G8 is T-T is true, maybe new!L5 and G8 (who exists maybe? Is there precedent for a slot not posting in-thread for over a week - yes I know including Intermission but still - and not getting replaced? L5 was replaced so quickly!) can help get themselves sorted?

Trying to set it up so her scum partner doesn't get lynched instantly.

????????

G7, what you do if L5/G8 flips T-T, explain now

I am VERY not sure about the push for G8/L5 to be the first lynch in this phase. And I'm more than a little paranoid that just as there's some light at the end of the tunnel with regard to old!L5 being a rule-breaking mess and G8 being unresponsive - just as there's a chance they might become readable - there are a lot of players saying "well of course G1/L2 and G8/L5 both need to go, L5/G8 definitely goes first".

VOTE: Gentleman 1/Lady 2

She votes her own pair instead of L5/G8, in response to Gent 7 voting L5/G8
At this point she's very ready for Gent 8 to go down, and doesn't expect to really get lynched here. She's voting herself so it doesn't look like she's voting nobody when mafia gets lynched. If Gent 8 flips here she's ready to declare her own pair T-T

L5, please do not leave dance, especially not before G8's replacement takes over the slot and says something. I'm really not comfortable with the way your pair is being pushed right now as the lynch that needs to happen first and I DO NOT want your pair to be the first pair out a) without you and G8 having time to give input that might make you readable and b) without enough people having to commit a vote to actually lynch your pair.

What is the actual reason that she doesn't want G8/L5 to die right now? She says it's because other people want to lynch G8/L5 and then G1/L2 after, and that worries her... but why does it matter, if both pairs are dying? it shouldn't, she should WANT L5 to leave here, and then she can leave herself if she really holds suspicions.

Then it shouldn't matter from your perspective whether G1/L2 is lynched first and G8/L5 second?

I

really

don't understand your perspective doubling down on G8 having to be scum. G8 could be scum, as I see it, certainly. I don't think he's said anything so remarkable yet as to make him a significant Townread for me. I also haven't seen anything which warrants wondering whether he's scum being coached by his buddies. It's just - let me repeat - bizarre to me that you jumped straight from me saying I don't want L5 to leave outright because G8 might become readable and because we lose information by having a quick leave without a lynch wagon to you saying that "it's hard looking at what he's saying right now without thinking that he could have been coached or whatnot extensively before posting this stuff". I never said that his posts upon replacing in made him look Town, even! But you had a vocal Townread on L5 previously and no read on G8, though you did say his proposals were bad and you didn't want to take him to endgame, so ... fair enough. But this is a very very hard pre-emptive case against trying to read G8 or letting him live long enough to post anything readable! And it's not like G8 is your only scumread - and I don't see how he could legitimately be your strongest scumread either, but what do I know. So just. What! How? No.

Everyone assumed L5/G8 would continue to be disruptive and unreadable by inactivity respectively and therefore have to go (G1, still a major suspect of mine, has really only posted about L5 needing to go, plus some shade during First Dance about G6 being disruptive and driving Town off a cliff but without committing to a scumread on him). Now that's changed - potentially, anyway. I'm starting to wonder whether they might not be T-T, a very valuable mislynch scum has been counting on for a long time now that's suddenly much less certain.

Basically, I don't believe you are Town at this point, L9.

UNVOTE:

G7, what the hell information do you take away from a G8/L5 lynch if they flip T-T?

Thinking.

She's been prepared for Lady 7 to leave Gent 7 this whole time, so she's going hard on him to distance the last 2 scum pairings. She thinks Gent 8 can be saved at this point.

This is now a VERY strong defense of the Lady 5/Gent 8 slot, when Gent 8 still hasn't really done anything but post a bit. I even mentioned that he could be getting coached, and it's possible Lady 2 herself was coaching him here, and she went hard against the prospect of that.

I like you a lot lady 2!

I'll be honest I like you too. I feel like I'm

supposed

to downplay that and question my Townread on you because our styles and attitudes are similar and maybe I just like you personally and am being pocketed (oh yes, Lady 2, partner of esteemed Gentleman 1, a real prime pocketing opportunity here this game!). But honestly you are my strongest Townread and if I don't work with that productively then I'm

really

not doing what I'm supposed to do, and anyway what of it, it's not like either of us really trust G7 so even if you were scum that's not really a major opportunity for you personally to use me to push your pair to endgame so yeah.

But in that case what do? Lynch L9? Or just lynch G1/L2?

I'm starting to be paranoid that it's G1, L9, one of {L6/G3} as deepwolf. I don't want to be too paranoid but my stronger reads here are G1 and L9 and G1's vote of G7 looks not really like a bus but more like something that avoids touching L9 right now and I think if I'm right and he is scum he just doesn't want to touch the deepwolf at all. If I had to choose one of the L5/G8 voters I've called out G7's explanation seems better than what L9 has here and what G1 has here too so. How do you see it right now?

It's at that point we realize that she never

really

plans on leaving, she's setting up to make it to end game here.

Look at her reads...

what happened to G7? She was going hard on him but he's not her scumread, her stated reads do NOT match what she was saying. She never really talked about l6/g3 either but for some reason they're 'deep wolf'. Actually, that whole list is town, because she's the scum in her pair, and I'm town, so wow. "G1's vote on G7 doesn't look like a bus" does she ever bring this up again, like in our current situation, where G7 flipped scum, but she's still pretending to be unsure on G1, and needs me to flip to 'reevaluate'? These aren't real thoughts!

And by the way, here's the person who has been pushing me as scum this phase after we didn't die. Her and Gent 7.

Soooo the game is pretty stagnant, we haven’t come to a decision for a lynch, and I do t think I’m in a town/town pair anyway. I’m seriously considering leaving tonight before I head to bed. That gives you guys 3 days and a couple flips to work with.

Don't, I will go instead.

Looking back and seeing that Gent 7 was scum. I don't know what this was about, but if she's scum then she doesn't ever plan to leave, just act like it and then that she's reconsidering

You and G1 have both been too interested in lynching G8/L5 first in Second Dance. Maybe because of that I am too paranoid that they're actually one of our remaining T-T pairs because otherwise it's not that they've been super readable, though actually G8 seems kind of okay right now. Not something I'd like to stake the game on but there's no one pair I feel comfortable staking the game on as T-T to be honest. If I had to, gun to my head, I'd have L7-G7 and L5-G8 in, though you could probably WIFOM me between L5-G8 and G3-L6 as the better endgame shot at T-T right now, which basically means I want G1 and L9 out first and then figure it out from there unless I was so wrong that those were both T-T pairs in which case I'd just suck at scumhunting this game, which I can't rule out.

Like if L5 is not scum she was hella lynchbait, no? And you yourself, L9, never scumread L5. And if G8 was really low activity due mainly to out-of-game stuff like illness ... yes it's bad that they have all that baggage and they're not super easy to read. But you know what, it's not like I've seen much useful or readable from you since ... since you accepted G2's invitation to the dance? Really.

And your strong pushback against me telling L5 to not just up and leave before new G8 has a chance to say anything useful and maybe readable ... no. Stop asking me what G8 has done that's Town. I'm not sure he is. He hasn't done that much. But I'm sure as hell actively and specifically scumreading you for the way you pushed back against the idea that they shouldn't go immediately as a given, essentially. I don't see why you would take that perspective if you're Town. And if you're scum, mayyyybe you're trying to preserve your own longevity by bussing a slot that's been thought of as completely compromised for a long time, seeing little downside to it because probably L5/G8 gets lynched, there's a scumflip, you're still fine yourself. Or maybe you're just securing a T-T lynch that you think is kind of a freebie.

G1 spent all his time First Dance scumcasing L5 and shading G6. But I don't really think those were real. The L5 stuff was all for the lynchbaity stuff she's done. It's like he was casing complete busywork.

Actually I should mention when suicide pacts came up yesterday, like right when G4 and G6 were doing their whole "come at me bro" stuff he started saying "hey, should I make one of these with L5 to get the pair out of the game" which ... yeah I don't know what to make of that except to think that L5 would have done a suicide pact with anyone in a reliable manner is just MOONBEAMS level. I'm not staking a Townread on that being a real desire for a suicide pact with L5 on his part.

I really really don't think you're Town, L9. And I don't

really

think G1 is Town either at this point.

VOTE: Gentleman 2/Lady 9

Look the chances of you being lynched as first pair out in this phase are low because I'm pretty likely to leave dance tomorrow morning. Then you'll get my flip, more importantly (given I don't think anyone has a strong scumread on me at the moment?) you get G1's flip. If G1 is Town and I screwed up, that's my mistake as much as anyone's for me leaving and I'm not exactly sure what the game looks like except I guess you'd have to put more scrutiny on people who pushed us as the first lynch for this phase?

But certainly if he's scum, by no means let L9 live to endgame.

Giant wall of text talking about how I'm scum and how Gent 8/Lady 5 are a town-town pair because people are pushing them for doing nothing

It fits my paranoia bias that L5/G8 is T-T. Still reading.

Looking back, G7 did push the G8 scum -> L2 scum thing during first dance while hard pushing L5/G8 as first lynch. That does largely rule out G8/G1 as remaining scum team here. If G8 is in fact scum, G7 does not really want to lynch G8 and have him flip scum for the privilege of being able to lynch me and get G1-scum flipped in the bargain.

Okay need to head out, more later.

So as soon as Gent 7 flips she starts building this narrative that G1 and G8 can't be scum together, even though she thinks G8 is part of a T-T pair, but at the same time she also doesn't want to leave the dance anymore

Wait, what? That doesn't make any sense, at all, from a town perspective.

G1 making good points tho?

If G7 got the two lynches he was pushing, L5/G8 and G1/L2, he might have won then and there for all I can see right now.

Oh yeah, her plans are definitely in motion at this point

You're wrong and probably scum.

Lady 2 is uncharacteristically unwilling to examine lady 6 at all. Where does her suspicion here come from...?

VOTE: Gentleman 3/Lady 6

Okay, I'll be V/LA probably end of Friday through Saturday so we need to get a move one.

L6 goes now, get flip, do business.

Very fast vote here

Lady 2, I need you alive to lynch Gent 8/Lady 5 - they're so joined at the hip that I doubt they leave at the end. We still need one of them to self vote, or for scum to bus, in order to get this lynch

VOTE: Gent 8/Lady 5

When did I suggest I would leave dance? Haven't done so since before G7 flipped.

Gets strangely defensive here about leaving the dance


And then now, she 'needs my flip' - which will end the game, and she has VERY little to say about who I'm scum with right now, and she probably told gent 1 she was feeling better about him in the pt too

[Lady 9]

VOTE: Gent 1/Lady 2

[Lady 5]

I can see her being scum making her move, honestly.

The push to G2 leaving is hard to swallow.