Newbie 1965 | River | Over

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 2.04

Celeste River, Costa Rica

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Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Titus

(3): GuiltyLion, GayBabyJailor, Map Wolf

GuiltyLion

(2): Titus, Rise

GayBabyJailor

(1): faüstiv

Not Voting

(1): TheGildedSun

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-26 18:15:00).

Mod notes:

[/area]

[GayBabyJailor]

wait it's at L-1?

UNVOTE:

we need more time

[faüstiv]

I'm back and I don't really know where to start because there's just so much to take in. Gonna throw in some random thoughts

- Was going to agree SvS in Titus/Guilty is out of the question, but great, with that game Guilty linked, it could actually be a scenario. Would !scumGuilty literally try this again while linking us the game though? Probably not but man...
- The most likely option is still TvS both ways between Guilty/Titus. !scumGuilty or !scumTitus that is the question.
- Leaning towards !scumTitus still but I'm wondering if it's because Guilty's better at making a case or because he's more right
- Titus' "it wasn't a mistake" attitude makes me second guess myself. I think she'd be more...idk, trying to please us if she were scum
- Guilty's #381 actually makes me more "paranoid". Yes I've also noticed there's an experience/playstyle gap between us and I will/am trying to take that into consideration but why are you appealing to me? I think it is pretty obvious I'm the most cautious of you here so hmmm... Will try and ask you more questions though.
- This is kinda the reasoning for me so I'm gonna throw this out: I think we're all a bit reluctant to vote is partially because we're newbies? We don't have the experience/confidence to make this decision fast, at least I don't so that's why it looks like there's a lot of fence sitting. I don't think it means anything. Glad for it though so I can make my decision at my own pace.
- TvT is a possibility, but definitely not the most likely. Faustiv, your reasoning doesn't make sense to me.

my reasoning for believing it was TvT was that the rest of the townies weren't really contributing and not offering a position on either side, which suggests that if there's 2 scum outside Titus/GL they'd wait and see which of the two was the most lynchable without getting their hands dirty and then push for that lynch.

i feel that if it was TvS then others would be less reluctant to throw a vote on either. people are doing so now but

after

i made that point.

[faüstiv]

VOTE: TheGildedSun

if both scum are outside Titus/GL then it doesn't make sense that rise/map split the vote. would GBJ unvote here if he's scum? idk. he might if he's partners with titus but then again if he was why would he vote titus at l2 in the first place? by unvoting he's drawing attention to himself.

TGS slot seems the most likely to be scum given the gamestate.

[faüstiv]

new angle:

who does everyone scumread outside GL/Titus

[GuiltyLion]

- Guilty's #381 actually makes me more "paranoid". Yes I've also noticed there's an experience/playstyle gap between us and I will/am trying to take that into consideration but why are you appealing to me? I think it is pretty obvious I'm the most cautious of you here so hmmm... Will try and ask you more questions though.

I've been trying to appeal to you specifically because this entire game, from the moment it started, you seem steadfast in disagreeing with me on all the primary threads of the game and subsequently are calling me scum for it. It feels like I'm engaging with a brick wall meant to reject everything I post or argue.

- I stated suspicion of Map Wolf's entry and early reads list and you argued saying he should have the benefit of the doubt
- I pointed out that I didn't believe Blatant Scum was actually doing anything particularly scummy and you argued saying we should still consider him potentially scum
- I try to drive a case on Titus for her awful doc hammer and subsequent failure to do anything but defend herself and you constantly doubtcast my alignment and my arguments

Like it feels almost impossible to get you to honestly consider my point of view here. No matter what I say or do you come back to just landing on "Guilty is scum".

I've asked you this before and I'll ask you again:

What specifically would you expect me to be doing as town here that I'm not doing?

This may be self-centered but it's also honestly kinda impossible for me to grok how someone could look at the body of work and content I've produced this game in contrast to Titus and come away thinking I'm more likely to be scum. Like to the point where it almost singlehandedly makes me scumread you. I've been far more involved and nuanced in the entirety of things I've considered and given opinions on. I've been far more transparent and reasonable in discussing my reads and play. What has Titus done that makes you give her the benefit of the doubt? Why was Blatant Scum's play so deserving of scrutiny but not Titus'? Can you name who Titus townreads and why off the top of your head? Can you name anything Titus has given substantial opinions today on other than her justifications for why she hammered?

[GuiltyLion]

new angle:

who does everyone scumread outside GL/Titus

I feel you on trying to scum hunt outside of GL/Titus and looking at other slots and I'll answer this question, but frankly Titus feels more and more like obvscum to me that I don't really at all want to lynch outside of her. The pool of remaining players is far murkier, but here are my thoughts:

- faustiv other than your L-1 vote yesterday (which does make sense with trying to pigeonhole Titus into doing something), I feel pretty good about your thought process and efforts to sort. I do want to ask though can you give a specific read on Titus

outside

of the game state weirdness from our 1v1? How likely do you think it is that this is really TvT vs Titus is just caught scum?

- Map Wolf hasn't done too much to put himself out there, especially today, but everything he posts seems to reflect good faith honest thought process, including his latest thoughts on the NK in 394. Small odds he's scum but I definitely don't want to look here for now, one of my stronger townreads remaining.

- GBJ I was starting to feel paranoid about, and I do think you can write a plausible narrative for why his play is scum-serving, but there's still an honest/confident quality to his posts that makes me land on more likely town than not. For example my gut says 399 is a town post and here's why: GBJ was the first to mention gjt's scumread on him but he didn't do so until a few days after D2 had started, after he (and pretty much everyone else) made some posts. This makes me think it wasn't something that scum!GBJ previously intended to use to his advantage but rather something town!GBJ genuinely thought of later on his own. And then to bluntly call out in 399 that he stated it because he doesn't want to be suspected just feels transparent to me. I know it's not particularly strong reasoning but it's what my heart says.

- Rise... mehhhh. The more I read her ISO and her interactions with others the more it comes across as town, and I'm probably biased being the target of all her disagreement and votes, but it's hard for me to totally town clear her when FMPOV all her major pushes have been on town. I do think Titus' post 325 towards her does likely point to them not being a team still.
(side note about Titus 325 that I just thought of - she says she doesn't "hold Rise responsible" for the mislynch at all... who DOES she hold responsible? There is almost always at least one scum pushing a D1 town mislynch and Titus doesn't actually seem to care at all who was responsible for the mislynch. Awkward phrasing and again indicates that Titus isn't actually engaged with the game.)

- TGS I don't have any good reasons to townread still. I did doubt myself with her 351 as that felt sorta honest, but when I really challenge myself as to why scum couldn't write that post I don't have any solid reasons. Add to that how her early ISO feels especially pingy, the questioning attitude in the beginning of her game on D1 has disappeared on D2, and I think this is best odds of scum remaining.

I'd say realistically my feelings of odds of scum are like: 5% faustiv/Map Wolf, 10% GBJ, 30% Rise, 50% TGS.

[GuiltyLion]

I guess if I want to give Titus the benefit of the doubt 325 might indicate that she holds Blatant Scum responsible for his lynch, so maybe scrap that point. But I do think any townie who's genuinely interested in solving the game shouldn't be blaming dead townies for being mislynchable but should instead be turning their eyes towards who opportunistically took advantage of a mislynchable townie, and there's no evidence that Titus has done that still

[GayBabyJailor]

tgs has been the last person to vote twice now, kinda weird

[Rise]

@Guilty, I'm sorry if it feels like I'm constantly disagreeing with you, I don't try to, but I guess things are just they way they are - I just project from my POV. I can assure you I don't have some vendetta against you.

Anyways, can I just have my opinions? It doesn't even mean they're right, I mean, I was wrong about Blatant and you were right in that case so obviously my opinions mean nothing. Still, I can't force myself to agree with you on things I don't to balance it out. I guess feel free to point out where you think I'm being unfair and I'll try and reconsider but that's all I can offer?

To answer the question, (for today,) I thought you were fine. I was on your side up until a while ago.

About Titus' hammer, it really wasn't about anything that Titus has said really. I just reread the lynching and just went with my gut. The other thing was the game you linked and what happened here was different in tone. It made me lose some trust points in you. I think you were the one who said this before, but scum would probably would use an opportunity like this for a follow up lynch. I agree with you there, therefore you get my vote.

[Rise]

new angle:

who does everyone scumread outside GL/Titus

Not Map and I don't think you either so that kinda leaves GBJ and TGS. It's kinda hard to say though because both these slots aren't offering much. I kinda want to reverve judgement on TGS a bit because it seems like she's genuinely busy but agreeing with GBJ, it is a bit weird she never votes.

[GayBabyJailor]

time for reads list 3

titus/guilylion: TvS leaning titus
tgs: kinda sus
faus: acting weird but probably town
map wolf: seems fine, nothing really stands out
rise: townie dude

[Map Wolf]

^^ Absolutely yes to no quicklynching today. Please. Also where did 44% come from?

(4/6)^2 = 44%. In hindsight, it should actually be (4/6)*(3/5) = 40%

[Map Wolf]

wait it's at L-1?

UNVOTE:

we need more time

+

[Map Wolf]

So I want to go over the votes from yesterday and try to analyse it a bit.

Blatant Scum (5): GayBabyJailor, Map Wolf, faüstiv, Gjt, Titus
TheGildedSun (2): Blatant Scum, GuiltyLion
Guilty Lion (1): Rise
Not Voting (1): TheGildedSun

I feel like BS was a really obvious vote for most of yesterday. I feel like there almost certainly is at least one scum among the people not voting BS, due to WIFOM. TGS is a good candidate to be honest...

I think if Titus is town,

then there is a good chance that

the scum pairing might be GL and Rise/TGS.

This does kind of make it less likely that Faustiv (and from your perspective I) would be scum, since you would want to be more hesitant to have your vote on the lynched person. This doesn't of course vindicate Titus, since that hammer kind of came out of the blue as far as I am concerned.

I want to also think about GL. What if he was scum? What would the state of the game then be? I can see it being possible that his way of trying to townread players is a way for us to do that in return. Feels like he assumes the best in everyone, except Titus (although I don't blame him too hard for that).

I am kind of tempting to join the wagon on TGS, but there is kind of an issue with that in theory. If we assume one of GL/Titus is scum, then a mislynch today could essentially force us to choose between one of them tomorrow. That would not be that great of a prospect for us, so if TGS was town, then she'd be the perfect push for today.

[faüstiv]

time for reads list 3

titus/guilylion: TvS leaning titus
tgs: kinda sus
faus: acting weird but probably town
map wolf: seems fine, nothing really stands out
rise: townie dude

can you elaborate on this?

[faüstiv]

ok so there's 3 days left. there's barely been any activity in d2 and most of it has centred around GL/Titus so I'm just gonna say it in case people speedhammer Titus or something. I think Titus is the other PR.

answering this from GL:

I do want to ask though can you give a specific read on Titus outside of the game state weirdness from our 1v1? How likely do you think it is that this is really TvT vs Titus is just caught scum?

In terms of what Titus has said and her defense etc. no I don't TR it, but I think the way the gamestate is, Titus is more likely to be PR than scum. Why?

1) Personally I think you're exaggerating the benefits that scum!Titus has with that hammer. scum!Titus hammering a 'soft PR claim' will only put this slot into scrutiny in the following day, which it has. Bear in mind Titus wasn't really scumread D1, I don't see why she'd make that play and draw attention to herself. Also remember that Titus has a partner, which FYPOV, is not you. Who is Titus' partner in this situation? The only reason I could see scum!Titus making that hammer is that she trusts her partner to endgame this, but every town slot has been shadethrown and no one has been concretely TRed enough for, I believe, scum!Titus to trust her partner to carry this. Also consider that the investigating PR is still alive. Scum may not have roleblocked the cop or rolecop may not have found tracker (I think that's what rolecop does anyway?) so the investigating role may have two reports going into tomorrow which puts scum in a precarious position. Sure if Titus is scum she could rolefish the PR but if the real PR has a guilty report that they were concealing that's not on Titus then it's game over for mafia. You also say that TGS is your top scumread outside Titus, but considering TGS had 3 votes on her yesterday and was under a lot of scrutiny, why would scum!Titus make that play if TGS is her partner. No way scum!TGS endgames this.

I see too many risks in Titus' play and too many probabilities in the gamestate for Titus to do what she did d1 as scum.

2) You talk about how Titus has reacted but from experience scum and PR's react similarly when being questioned, because both roles are trying to conceal their true alignment. I think this is the case here.

3) Titus wasn't really engaged in the game if you look at D1. She's said today that she's been busy with IRL stuff (373). I think either she didn't like how BS was 'softclaiming' PR and hammered him because she is PR and thought he was fishing or just genuinely made a mistake and thought doc wasn't in this game. Personally I lean towards the former but wouldn't rule out the latter as a possibility.

4) I think if the interaction is TvS then other townies make more of a stance. Everyone was 'on the fence' until recently and even then, the players aren't really obstinate with the sides they're taking.

GBJ unvoted when Titus was at L1

Map Wolf said this in 414:

I want to also think about GL. What if he was scum? What would the state of the game then be? I can see it being possible that his way of trying to townread players is a way for us to do that in return. Feels like he assumes the best in everyone, except Titus (although I don't blame him too hard for that).

in 393 Rise said (before she voted GL in 397):

Leaning towards !scumTitus still but I'm wondering if it's because Guilty's better at making a case or because he's more right

so if either of these are scum then they can easily backtrack and vote the other way because they're not really committing to a stance. I feel if this was TvS then someone would.

so yeah I think Titus is more likely to flip PR than mafia, hence why I don't want this lynch.

[Map Wolf]

So you're suggesting TvT is more likely?
What I then find interesting is that GL is assuming this is TvS. Why? From his perspective (assuming he is town), the chances would only be 33%. Possible, but not certain.

[faüstiv]

yeah

I understand where GL is coming from but I think he is wrong.

[faüstiv]

people should join me on this bw.

it's clear that outside GL/Titus that no one is comfortable voting either of them

no one townreads TGS

TGS could be mafia partner with anyone here if you look at gamestate (except maybe titus)

read my case in 265

let's stop looking into what is probably a TvT argument and lynch scum.

[faüstiv]

why is she scum? well mainly on poe and logic.

I hard TR GL. I think his thought process makes a lot of sense and I followed the same progression as he did in D1.

Titus' play is reminiscent of that of a PR more than a scum IMO. if that's a scumhammer then it's rash play which I don't think comes from an SE with a gazillion games who wasn't FOSsed at the time.

this leaves map, rise, GBJ, TGS

rise is my next townread after GL mainly due to voting GL. I don't see what scum!rise gains by doing that. it draws attention to the slot. it get's GL's backup who is the most townread between GL/Titus so it puts that slot in a precarious position. posts from 392 onwards look like genuine gamesolve posts. sure rise could split the vote I suppose to distance herself from her partner if it's in map/GBJ/TGS but I don't really see how she would benefit that much by making that move when it's probably not going to be picked up later in the game.

map wolf is eh... unsure. on one hand he's made a lot of posts which seem like genuine gamesolve posts but that vote putting Titus to L1 when he was so publically on the fence was bad.

GBJ - again idk. he gets townpoints for the unvote but I don't think he's done that much. he hasn't really elaborated on his points or his townreads. he needs to explain his thought process more.

the L1 vote from Map and then the unvote soon after from GBJ makes me think they're not paired up so I'm inclined to believe that that leaves TGS who, admittedly hasn't done anything today (most probably through no fault of her own, might just be busy with IRL stuff) but her d1 was bad.

i think if we lynch TGS/GBJ/map wolf in any order we win the game.

[Plotinus]

TheGildedSun has requested replacement. Searching...

[Map Wolf]

map wolf is eh... unsure. on one hand he's made a lot of posts which seem like genuine gamesolve posts but that vote putting Titus to L1 when he was so publically on the fence was bad.

the L1 vote from Map and then the unvote soon after from GBJ makes me think they're not paired up so I'm inclined to believe that that leaves TGS who, admittedly hasn't done anything today (most probably through no fault of her own, might just be busy with IRL stuff) but her d1 was bad.
i think if we lynch TGS/GBJ/map wolf in any order we win the game.

Can you elaborate on why the L-1 vote was bad? I specfically stated that I didn't want a lynch in the post itself. In hindsight, I do get that putting Titus L-1 is super risky if someone accidentally votes her, but I don't really see the vote hurting town.
I agree that Titus/GL being TvT is possible, but I am certainly not convinced of it. Still, I agree that one of TGS/GBJ likely is scum.

[Plotinus]

Titus² has been prodded and has (expired on 2019-11-25 09:00:00) to post before I start looking for a replacement because the timer runs slower on weekends.

[Plotinus]

It's so quiet in here!

I'm going to be away on Thursday-Saturday. Nancy Drew will be our backup mod while I'm gone; if she prods you, it is a real prod.