Newbie 1966: History [GAME OVER]

[LoserdudeOG]

Also, it’s generally a good idea to bold requests to the mod

Ah gotcha ty

[Menalque]

You’re welcome

[Dunnstral]

Killing arkias today is ~not bad~ because you can still kill both prs, plus you get to push more newbies who are least likely to put up a good defense/look like scum

[LoserdudeOG]

Well I was looking at @Saus’ last game. It was his first one and he was scum, his scum buddy was very much carrying him. I also noticed that he was posting significantly more in the main thread than he is in this one. Some of that was due to prompting from his partner and some not. Idk if this actually helps at all, I was just thinking if we are going the inexperienced scum route Saus makes sense.

[Dunnstral]

But if he was posting a lot more, wouldn't that imply that he's town this time instead?

[LoserdudeOG]

I think he might have a scum buddy that isn’t as willing to carry? And that means that he might not necessarily know how to proceed? Idk this is definitely reaching I just thought I’d put it out there

[Menalque]

Killing arkias today is ~not bad~ because you can still kill both prs, plus you get to push more newbies who are least likely to put up a good defense/look like scum

I mean that would put me in a situation where lylo is me + one of conf!town/RC which does not sound like +EV% for scum!me tbh

So like unless you think it’s exactly RC + me this is clearly a v bad kill for scum!me to make

[Thespio]

Update

Vote Count

LoserdudeOG:

Menalque

No Vote:

LoserdudeOG, SausasaurusRex, Dunnstral, EspeciallyTheLies, Yimmy, RadiantCowbells

With 7 people it takes 4 to lynch

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2019-12-03 14:09:32)

[Dunnstral]

I wasn't really implying you were scum with 977, moreso RC

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm not scum though.

[Dunnstral]

If you were, who would you kill?

[RadiantCowbells]

cost benefit analysis on the probability of you being town fakeclaiming doctor as i determine whether to roleblock you kill etl or vice versa

i certainly don't kill outside of you two unless i'm planning some sort of counterclaim shenanigans

[Yimmy]

I supposed since the days were long I'd be able to get away with popping in and posting once or so a day. I don't intend to set aside more of my day for this game tho so uhhh
I'm VT.

RC's behavior late day 1 was reeeaaal weird. like whenever a wagon he was on gained momentum he just jumped to a new one for assorted reasons (especially when he moved to loserdude (796). my wagon had an intent to hammer on it, nobody really expresses suspicion or anything of loserdude since his last post, and then he jumps ship and says "ah i think loserdude is town but i don't feel like arguing". he had no motivation to move and the reasoning he provided is silly)

Oh wait maybe not actually, I forgot that ark started obvtowning

I like the nk reaction here. The waffling about and the ten minute break makes me feel like this is an immediate reaction and not premeditated or anything.

Why do you not think I’ve been p townie? I haven’t bothered to check my ISO but I’ve been trying to solve and so I’m assuming that comes across

it does weird me out a little how much he dwells on this. Why?

Oh straight up newb kill. Terrible choice. I guess he was making pretty competent posts in the end, but if a PR wasn’t getting NKed, you would’ve been the best option hands down.

the language here feels super forced. and the confidence clashes with how he's presented himself prior.

So tbf - I missed the last like 10 pages of D1. After my last post the next time I got online was after lynch and I quickly skimmed to figure out how we went from jocus or ldog to Jake. So perhaps we are looking at someone who was also rather absent during that time period.

Absent and not a newbie, leaving presumably the newbie scum to fill in the details. Thoughts?

i would've had to have been absent for three irl days (end of day 1 + night) or have made snap decisions without looking at the end of day 1 for this to point to me at all.

I mean no but y’all are reading everything like I’m scum, usually votes aren’t too far behind. sometimes a joke is just a joke.

this is a pretty dang strong reaction for two people commenting on one of his posts. no good.
so ldude is looking the worst, rc's pretty iffy and menalque is probably town.
almost forgot about saus. his posts don't have anything that catches my eye (i want to say they lack substance) but they don't look like they're trying to fake anything so idk. he's still null i guess

[RadiantCowbells]

thinking it's saus/yimmy

[SausasaurusRex]

Perhaps Eth0s did carry me a little in my first game. But, as you’ll have noticed, he died in day 2 (perhaps day 3, I don’t remember). You will then notice that, after he died, I conducted mislynches, and killed all the right people, so that by day 4, it was LYLO. You’ll then notice, the other two players, Blatant Scum and Quantifiable Conundrum, literally just take a random guess who scum was. I would say that, by now, I am experienced scum, because I know what sort of thinks scum should be doing. Do you really think I’d fail to kill Dunstraal, eliminating the doctor, now I’m experienced?
Arkias just doesn’t make sense. If they’d killed Dunstraal, they would’ve eliminated the doctor, allowing them to kill ETL the second night, eliminating the cop. And then, it’d be day 3, and there’s still nobody with any information, because mafia would’ve made the logical choice.

I’m new to town, as this is my first town game, but I can certainly play scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

the fact that sausasaurus doesn't seem to realize that it was possible to directly eliminate ETL by roleblocking dunnstral doesn't give me better feelings about him

[SausasaurusRex]

I do realise it, but it would’ve been safer to kill Dunstraal first. The mafia could roleblock ETL so he doesn’t get his night move, and kill Dunstraal to eliminate the doctor. That way, if Dunstraal was lying, at least the night kill wasn’t wasted. So I did realise it was possible, but it would’ve been safer, and a better idea, to attempt to kill the doctor first, in case Dunstraal was lying about being the doctor.

[RadiantCowbells]

the simplest argument for why I'm town is that with the cop outed I no longer had any reason that I would want to cycle wagon people as scum.

more to the point, it is not something that I am capable of faking in an effective manner and so I usually get around it by having clearer scumreads at different times of the game
i've said this repeatedly in situations like this and it remains true. i don't think you realize how much energy i expend constantly rereading the game thread and trying to weigh the relative merits of different reads of the game and whatever. once ETL was outed, all i had to do was lynch someone roleblock her and play the long game. if i'm the roleblocker, i would probably have had my second buddy as my second scumread and i'd have lynched them and had them out the doc on the way down. very clean play that i could have executed with significantly less effort and that still leads to a very reliable win because you're simply not going to beat me by scumreading me over other people wthout mechanically cornering me in some way. i also don't as scum try to give the person that i'm trying to mislynch (who was the cop btw) an out on either the basis that i think it's a good play for scum or on the basis that my emotions lead me there. ETL would get over it if i mislynched her as scum.

like yimmy who is prob scum cited me having no reason to unvote him and go somewhere else. yeah. i had no reason to do that as scum.

if i was lying about my meta for the entire last year in terms of talking about it becoming progressively harder and harder to effectively fake certain aspects of my town meta, i certainly don't blow that meta on this game with team mafia coming up when this game ought to have pretty much been in the bag for scum me the moment that ETL claimed.

[RadiantCowbells]

if you want to ad hoc justify why because i'm rc and i can do whatever as scum i can't argue with it because that reasoning can essentially go anywhere

but there is a lot of really concrete evidence as to why i'm town here that isn't around in most games and i think that my mislynch, if it happens, happens because people (dunn/ETL) decided to ignore any sort of logical reasoning and go with emotional reasoning and fear instead.

[RadiantCowbells]

and no, killing arkias is bad because if the roleblocker goes down today an investigation is going to happen and it only takes one correct townread in the remainder to solve.

[RadiantCowbells]

btw, i wasn't going to lean on it before a CC had happened but IF i made this kill as scum, which i almost never would, i made it to frame Dunnstral and mislynch him and i wouldn't be timid about doing that or having my buddy doing that given that, like, i'm pretty sure scum would have cced dunn here if i wasn't here saying that he was town.

which is why it was never really about the experienced vs inexperienced argument even though i brought it up earlier, because the other world where that kill happens (assuming dunn town) is one where scum think that it's possible to CC and claim that ETL couldn't have been the kill because there was still a concealed doc and with everyone's reads he probably gets mislynched there

except for the fact that i was saying that his play made more sense as doc than anyone else

i considered trying to discredit his claim even though i believed it to try to bait a counterclaim but that risked dunn just omgusing me if no cc happened and the game going very badly

[LoserdudeOG]

@rc do you suspect menalque at all?

[RadiantCowbells]

(the original post argument isn't predicated on being able to bus my hypothetical buddy: it works just as well to just roleblock ETL and hunt the doc normally. either way without cop results you're not lynching me.)

[SausasaurusRex]

and no, killing arkias is bad because if the roleblocker goes down today an investigation is going to happen and it only takes one correct townread in the remainder to solve.

Perhaps Eth0s did carry me a little in my first game. But, as you’ll have noticed, he died in day 2 (perhaps day 3, I don’t remember). You will then notice that, after he died, I conducted mislynches, and killed all the right people, so that by day 4, it was LYLO. You’ll then notice, the other two players, Blatant Scum and Quantifiable Conundrum, literally just take a random guess who scum was. I would say that, by now, I am experienced scum, because I know what sort of thinks scum should be doing. Do you really think I’d fail to kill Dunstraal, eliminating the doctor, now I’m experienced?
Arkias just doesn’t make sense. If they’d killed Dunstraal, they would’ve eliminated the doctor, allowing them to kill ETL the second night, eliminating the cop. And then, it’d be day 3, and there’s still nobody with any information, because mafia would’ve made the logical choice.

I’m new to town, as this is my first town game, but I can certainly play scum.

and no, killing arkias is bad because if the roleblocker goes down today an investigation is going to happen and it only takes one correct townread in the remainder to solve.

Where did I say killing Arkias was a good idea?

[RadiantCowbells]

i am right now significantly more concerned with trying to convince Dunn/ETL that I'm town than in hunting scum because I think that if I don't get cleared town loses and if I do get cleared town wins