Mini 2106 - Magia Record Fate Weave Semi-U-Pick (OVER!)

[Venus and Mars]

Farkran went from Bitmap to Shiro Drew to Bitmap and now Pops under pressure.

He dies today.

Yeah, it definitely looks like he’s flailing. And considering Pops is still the leading wagon, it’s looks more like self-pres than a genuine read.

You have it backwards...

Ok, listen, you all need to get some sleep over this and read again later. I'm going to stop arguing now because you aren't being lucid.

I have provided my reads based on this exchange. Pops need to flip, and if he flips scum we need to look at evenstar first.

Why does she need to flip?

[popsofctown]

I actually didn't read LyLo or even LyLo -1 of the teacher newbie, I was too focused on modding Undertale Semi-open or something. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerset is easy to read in later phases of the game though.

[Farkran]

@v&m you're not even realizing you are now raising your townread certainty about people only because they're scumreading me.

How is that logic-based? You need to sleep this over. I'm not being hostile, i know what it means to be emotionally tunneled. I correctly townreaded emps in my first game (newbie 1951) out of that.

You look like the only reason you are voting Pops, is because she’s sr you and the fact the she just happens to be the lead wagon, also make your sudden vote on her look opportunistic as well.

His ISO contains extremely nuanced reads and instead of arguing with her why you think she’s wrong, you vote a leading wagon that’s at serious risk of flipping.

No. I'm voting pops because

she's better than not noticing me and you is TvT.

If i wanted to omgus somewhere for no reason, it wouldn't be pops.

Why are you suddenly certain that V&M are town?

Same as i townreaded emps in my first game. True emotional tunnels are very hard to fake. He's genuinely frustrated towards me, and he has no reason to if he was scum. Do you see how he is denying my words with such veemency, like "i'm perfectly lucid!", "I am using logic!", "You keep misrepping me!"

He's angry, with good reason, and that makes them town

[popsofctown]

Despite what any of you may think, pops is actually an awesome player.

butbut

Pops: Worst Townie Award 2019

don't strip away my awards they are all that I have!!!!!

[Venus and Mars]

@v&m you're not even realizing you are now raising your townread certainty about people only because they're scumreading me.

How is that logic-based? You need to sleep this over. I'm not being hostile, i know what it means to be emotionally tunneled. I correctly townreaded emps in my first game (newbie 1951) out of that.

You look like the only reason you are voting Pops, is because she’s sr you and the fact the she just happens to be the lead wagon, also make your sudden vote on her look opportunistic as well.

His ISO contains extremely nuanced reads and instead of arguing with her why you think she’s wrong, you vote a leading wagon that’s at serious risk of flipping.

No. I'm voting pops because

she's better than not noticing me and you is TvT.

If i wanted to omgus somewhere for no reason, it wouldn't be pops.

Why are you suddenly certain that V&M are town?

Salamence, i think he's town but refuses to even try not taking something at face value, he absolutely needs to be removed before lylo because scum are never going to kill him. Same about V&M.

HOW DARE YOU CALL ME A VI.

Also, lolno

P-Edit: Die

Even stranger, he’s calling for us (Salamence and me) to be lynched before LYLO. Why?

[Farkran]

Show me where you are using your own thoughts as opposed to move people up and down your internal readlist because so far i have only seen general consensus reads coming from you, which MIGHT be ok but i would expect at least some concern when your instinct leads you to vote already populated wagons rather than doubt the town-motivation of any of those wagons.

TL;DR please produce a detailed readlist with only your own thoughts.

This is where you call V&M a sheepy slot? And I don't think it's the only time?
I'm surprised you're trying to walk it back rather than trying to justify it.

I'm not sure why you're voting me. I've read you correctly 0/1 times, a BoP that town!pops would never misread you is silly. Do you not understand my reasoning for disliking your slot?
I think Alchemist, Gamma, and TL are all better lynches than you, or at least I did think that, but if you're just going immediately scumlock me for voting you and start speculating associatives there's not much ability to work with you here. The progression's not making sense to me.

You misread me as town when i was scum, not the other way around. That would validate your doubts on your townread of me, which you never had in this game.

Instead, you are pushing me because you think i'm scummy - something you have no experience with from my slot. If anything, you should be doubting my scumminess, since the most pro-town farkran you've seen is scum!farkran.

[Venus and Mars]

Farkran went from Bitmap to Shiro Drew to Bitmap and now Pops under pressure.

He dies today.

I give up on you. It's not like i didn't try.

After i flip, please remember that i told you.

@everyone else: i still think salamence is town

If you flip scum, this reads like a setup.

[popsofctown]

No, you were even more pro-town in the Nexus game. I thought it was remarkable that you were almost as townie in the teacher game, but you weren't actually townier.

Sounds like you're just a little more pleased with yourself than you should have been. But only a little. You did play great that game.

[Farkran]

@v&m you're not even realizing you are now raising your townread certainty about people only because they're scumreading me.

How is that logic-based? You need to sleep this over. I'm not being hostile, i know what it means to be emotionally tunneled. I correctly townreaded emps in my first game (newbie 1951) out of that.

You look like the only reason you are voting Pops, is because she’s sr you and the fact the she just happens to be the lead wagon, also make your sudden vote on her look opportunistic as well.

His ISO contains extremely nuanced reads and instead of arguing with her why you think she’s wrong, you vote a leading wagon that’s at serious risk of flipping.

No. I'm voting pops because

she's better than not noticing me and you is TvT.

If i wanted to omgus somewhere for no reason, it wouldn't be pops.

Why are you suddenly certain that V&M are town?

Salamence, i think he's town but refuses to even try not taking something at face value, he absolutely needs to be removed before lylo because scum are never going to kill him. Same about V&M.

HOW DARE YOU CALL ME A VI.

Also, lolno

P-Edit: Die

Even stranger, he’s calling for us (Salamence and me) to be lynched before LYLO. Why?

I said removed, not lynched. I'm fine with you reaching lylo as conftowned i.e. investigated or proven town by your role, or something. Scum is bringing both of you to lylo, town needs to prevent that.

Actually though, v&m is now town enough that he doesn't need this. Salamence still does.

[Farkran]

No, you were even more pro-town in the Nexus game. I thought it was remarkable that you were almost as townie in the teacher game, but you weren't actually townier.

Sounds like you're just a little more pleased with yourself than you should have been. But only a little. You did play great that game.

You should still know that i am lynchbaity by nature to other players, whereas to you i have never been, yet you've seen me play pro-town as both aligments. Me being scummy in this game is not indicative of scum!me to town!pops.

You're never pushing me today unless you're scum in this game.

[popsofctown]

I think the point that I would rely less on gut and more on reasons to read you is true, but it's exactly what I am doing. I'm tallying up how many times I think your analysises didn't strike home and saying it seemed like too many, rather than picking out one of them and tracing the process and saying my gut says the way you're speaking it has a scum perspective. It's a lot more emotionless. It reminds me of the method I tried to read LLD to the second time I played with her, basing it on what was accomplished by her post instead of its style. As a result of being colder it's less confident, being my 4th strongest scumread in a 13p game is not a heavy hitting position.
You're exaggerating my confidence level. If you flip town I'm going to feel a little frustrated because I can correct an errant read but it's a lot harder when people treat me like I'm not allowed to have reads I don't treat like sane cop investigations

[Salamence20]

I dont even need to play this anymore.

Farkran has already done enough to solidify my scumread.

I'm going to enjoy the rest of the day off. Good Day folks.

[Farkran]

I think the point that I would rely less on gut and more on reasons to read you is true, but it's exactly what I am doing. I'm tallying up how many times I think your analysises didn't strike home and saying it seemed like too many, rather than picking out one of them and tracing the process and saying my gut says the way you're speaking it has a scum perspective. It's a lot more emotionless. It reminds me of the method I tried to read LLD to the second time I played with her, basing it on what was accomplished by her post instead of its style. As a result of being colder it's less confident, being my 4th strongest scumread in a 13p game is not a heavy hitting position.
You're exaggerating my confidence level. If you flip town I'm going to feel a little frustrated because I can correct an errant read but it's a lot harder when people treat me like I'm not allowed to have reads I don't treat like sane cop investigations

Ok - before we go on with this argument, i ask that you point out where my reads have been wrong, and why. Because i can only recall a couple and you should know why i might be wrong on those, based on my knowledge of players in this game and my playstyle as both aligments.

We need to talk about those, and eventually any wrong read that you noticed but i am not aware of.

[popsofctown]

The only read I know for sure is wrong in alignment identification is on me. The alignment reads I'd disagree with the way you've shaded Evenstar throughout the game, and townreading Alchemist at all. But I care more about your analysises being weaker than I expect so often. Your analysis on Kerset that matches mine was good and makes sense but it's been the exception, not the rule, if you flip scum I would think Kerset is town because you'd have a harder time making that for a partner. But your reasoning on Evenstar's jumpiness never looked into why she would be jumpy. Your reasons for townreading Alchemist don't make sense, it's positional seems to ignore the WIFOM presented to Alchemist for which wagons he could be following, and it makes lots of sense for players with his style to be very aware of that. And even when you scumread Bitmap and I agree with the final read your reasoning seems off to me, you're accusatory of different levels of humor across 2 games which is NAI and once again complain about someone being a jumpy player which is just weak. You have to look at specific jumps and determine why the jump is scummy. Jumping around on it's own isn't scum indicative, it's NAI or slightly town indicative since a loyal Mafiosi has 20% fewer lily pads to jump on.
The N&M thing is the most recent chapter.
It's not that I have these hardreads that I want to BoP you for not matching (which is kind of what you're doing to me?), it's that you keep analyzing patterns that don't mean anything so you can post analysis in the thread. Don't worry about any hard reads dying with me, I don't have any reads any stronger than TL!scum and Kers!town.

[popsofctown]

V&M keeps making me want to post a picture of the new Venus evo.
I kind find a picture of her online though so I will have to unlock her in the game.
Then I will post it.
She is animified Roman mythology Venus not Sailor Moon Venus.
But still cool.

[popsofctown]

*can't

[Evenstar]

alchemist why are you aligning pops and kerset for specifically the reason why you should disalign them?

Because it’s actually a reason to align them and not disalign them.

Scumpartners do not play along like that... do you know the history of pops and kerset together?

Prior games? No. And as I said before, Kerset waffled on his pops read which read like scum who didn’t want to form a definite stance on their buddy. When scum is like that but feel pressured into forming a stance on them they can get tripped up like that.

They have a very high mutual respect, based on my knowledge of their history together. However, pops is the more experienced and in my opinion better player (especially as town) - kerset reads need some improving, and that's why he parked his vote on severa imo.

Pops can take advantage of that by pocketing or mislynching him anytime, knowing that kerset is actually extremely easy to read in lylo.

Sigh, gotta do the hand votaling again.

Farkran (15, L-4): Gamma (4), Salamence (4), V&M (2), Bitmap (2), Pops (3)

Pops (6): Severa (3), Farkran (3)
Kerset (6): Alchemist21 (3), TemporalLich (3)
Alchemist21 (3): Kerset
Sujimichi (3): Evenstar

Not voting: Chemist (2), Sujimichi (3)

Vote History:
Sala > Farkran
V&M > Farkran
Bit > Farkran
Fark > V&M
Myself > Sujimichi
Fark > Bitmap
Pops > Farkran
Fark > Pops

[TemporalLich]

I could vote Farkran but that would put Farkran at actual L-1 according to Evenstar

[Severa]

yeah this is a scum win.

[TemporalLich]

yeah Farkran does look scummy according to an ISO skim and pops has a point...

do you feel like you want D1 to last longer... because idk if there is unfinished business and I'm not stalling but not ending D1 early isn't necessarily stalling

[Severa]

town just wants to go after lynchbait

pops didn't do anything towny, she's being townread solely for effort even though that readslist was terrible

farkran is lynchbait and probably town according to meta

[Sujimichi]

VOTE: popsofctown

[Bitmap]

@Severa: Is the pops read list AI?

[Bitmap]

UNVOTE:

[Farkran]

The only read I know for sure is wrong in alignment identification is on me. The alignment reads I'd disagree with the way you've shaded Evenstar throughout the game, and townreading Alchemist at all. But I care more about your analysises being weaker than I expect so often. Your analysis on Kerset that matches mine was good and makes sense but it's been the exception, not the rule, if you flip scum I would think Kerset is town because you'd have a harder time making that for a partner. But your reasoning on Evenstar's jumpiness never looked into why she would be jumpy. Your reasons for townreading Alchemist don't make sense, it's positional seems to ignore the WIFOM presented to Alchemist for which wagons he could be following, and it makes lots of sense for players with his style to be very aware of that. And even when you scumread Bitmap and I agree with the final read your reasoning seems off to me, you're accusatory of different levels of humor across 2 games which is NAI and once again complain about someone being a jumpy player which is just weak. You have to look at specific jumps and determine why the jump is scummy. Jumping around on it's own isn't scum indicative, it's NAI or slightly town indicative since a loyal Mafiosi has 20% fewer lily pads to jump on.
The N&M thing is the most recent chapter.
It's not that I have these hardreads that I want to BoP you for not matching (which is kind of what you're doing to me?), it's that you keep analyzing patterns that don't mean anything so you can post analysis in the thread. Don't worry about any hard reads dying with me, I don't have any reads any stronger than TL!scum and Kers!town.

WRT Evenstar:

i think i did explain comprehensively why i thought her jumpiness had potential scum motivation. She's off meta by a fair bit, and i think everyone who has played with her would agree to this. This alone is not enough to justify a scumread on evenstar - in fact, i have tried to question her and let her do her thing for a while to see if she would produce any good result. She didn't, and while it may be because this game is way way way more active than what i (and possibly she) is used to, i can't townread her out of that, and i think she has more scum equity than other players in here because i know her for being very proactive with her scumhunting methods, and not changing strategy when she sees she's not producing results made me wonder if she was just doing busywork. I don't think i have been shading her, but rather challenging her to stop validating bad play and start producing results. She did, but only partially. I did say she wouldn't be my best lynch for today many times though. She never was my highest scumread, but it was worth noting that she does not look town either.

WRT Alchemist:

i used to scumread him during early game. I've slowly been reconsidering him since then after my exchange with him and his exchange with gamma, ultimately placing him solidly above null (but never in my hard townreads) when i saw bitmap preying over him. I would not lynch him today, but i don't recall ever saying he was one of my strong townreads. Your conviction that i have been townreading him seems born out of bitmap, V&M and salamence having said that rather than you having checked my actual progression on him.

WRT V&M:

they're town for emotion alone. It does not matter how much they try to deny this, but shouting "YOU ARE WRONG! YOU MISREP ME! YOU DON'T READ! YOU'RE SCUM FOR NOT READING! THOSE PLAYERS SCUMREADING YOU ARE NOW MY HARDEST TOWNREADS BECAUSE THEY'RE SCUMREADING YOU!" is being emotional. V&M has absolutely no reason to be angry at me if they were scum, therefore i don't think they are. You know perfectly i scumhunt like this.

WRT Bitmap:

if you look at my progression about him you'll immediately notice that i'm not scumreading him about his jumpiness at all, but rather about his having a very low solve/posts ratio + some bad logical pushes. My analysis of other games where he was town was not to the purpose of scumreading her in this game due to him being off-meta, but rather to verify if my

already existing

scumread of her would have been plausible when put against town!bitmap from other games. If i had determined that was just his playstyle, i would probably have dropped my scumread of him, at least temporarily, because he was within his town meta. But he wasn't. This analysis in particular seems lazy coming from town!pops.

I am placing a huge BoP on you though, and for good reason. I think you're damn good at mafia, and never lazy. I've seen you striking at scum!skitter in lylo and singlehandedly carry town to win while being a replacement in that game - meaning you had to read and re-read the mess we had produced to identify scum!skit AND convince the other players you were correct. You're good, and you're not a lazy player at all.