Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Kerset]

I hope that i am not being annoying but in second scenario you think that adorable is more likely to be scum. However you suggested that he will be innocent after check and dichotomy will be in {you/luca}. Did your mind omit the other possibility or you skipped this to make utterance shorter?
I don't want to make big deal out of it but i won't be able to sleep without knowing this

[skitter30]

i think i thought that i wrote it already

[Adorable]

ok i need to go through the different permutations of how to play out the rest of the game

givens: 1. kerset and suji are cleared 2. wooper is not clearable

i'm trying to write this from an objective poe, not just mine

-> no lynch today. tonight i check one of {luca/adorable}, probably on adorable since i tr luca more
-- > if i die than tomorrow it's {luca, adorable, suji, kerset, wooper}. not quite on auto but suji and kerset will both be alive and have two shots to find the one scum in {luca, adorable, wooper}
-- > if i live, one of suji/kerset will die presumably.
--- > if i get an inno on adorable than it's just {suji/kerset, adorable, me, wooper, luca}, and we have two days to find scum in {me, wooper, luca}.
--- > if i get a guilty on adorable than it's just gg

-> lynch someone today, using wooper as an concrete example just to make it easeir for me to follow this
-- > if he's scum gg
-- > if he's inno, then someone dies overnight
--- > me, then it's {kerset, suji, luca, adorable}, with kerset and suji deciding between luca and adorable, with two innos and a dichotomy in {luca/adorable}
--- > if it's not me, then i get another result, on one of adorable/luca, probably on adorable since i tr them less, and then are {suji/kerset, luca, adorable, me}, with two innos and a dichotomy in {me/luca}

if i did this right i think if we lynch someone today we force a dichotomy with two innos tomorrow

and if we no lynch we have two days to find one scum in three people

i think it's impossible to get the game fully on auto tho

i think a lot of this depends on which mylo/lylo the clears want to have given that they're ultimately the ones that will have to make the choice

I have been scum reading you more and I think scum is within you or Wooper. Wooper claimed Vig and I don't know how a vig will show up from a Gunsmith invest but I think they will show up with a gun. If we lynch Wooper today and he flips town, then it will be you or me next day on a lylo. We no lynch today and if you die tonight, then I can finally get over my paranoia on you being scum and Wooper is more likely scum and we lynch him next day. If I get mislynched next day, then Wooper will probably get lynched after. If you survive tonight and get a no gun on me then it will be either you or Wooper. We no lynch today and if you really are scum and say that I do have a gun next day, then that means you are confirmed scum once when you see me flip town next day. And as for Luca, I still don't think he is scum but if he does turn out to be scum in the end, then I would have to say good game for scum.

[Luca Blight]

I’d never bus both of my partners so needlessly. I remember a game I played a while ago where I caught 3 scum and people then got paranoid and thought I was the fourth scum for being too accurate. I have the experience to know that bussing doesn’t get you unlimited towncred.

[Luca Blight]

I think No-Lynch is the best course of action here.

Either we lose a dubious slot, lose a conf town but gain another, or get a guilty and it's game, set and match. We'd also still have two bites at the cherry.

[Kerset]

I’d never bus both of my partners so needlessly. I remember a game I played a while ago where I caught 3 scum and people then got paranoid and thought I was the fourth scum for being too accurate. I have the experience to know that bussing doesn’t get you unlimited towncred.

link?

[Luca Blight]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74053

I hard-pushed the D1 lynch on scum (similar to this game) and played a big part in the next two scum lynches. People then got paranoid about me as it was a nightless game where scum can't NK, but we still managed to win.

[skitter30]

Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.

is this talking about wooper or luca?

luca

hey luca how do you feel about bussing?

i think that being 'always right' is a scumtell for people who bus heavily

see, for example: me in the last pick your poison

[skitter30]

i don't think it's a scumtell for people who are not heavy bussers

[Luca Blight]

If I were going to gamble then I'd go ahead and lynch Wooper today, as I think he's the last scum.

No-lynch is the safer option, however. From my PoV is actually guarantees a won game, if others trust that I'm Town.

[Wooper]

Why do you think that fetch would jail you n1? Or maybe he lied about this? Is it a thing that you are passive during D1 when you are PR? He could block xaya or me, we were shaded and higher then you.

:shrug:
JK trying to look town should target people they think are high NK equity and likely vt

idrk why he does what he does, Sirf is unique

[Wooper]

at a mechanical level it makes... sense..... to no lynch today and lynch me tmrw, I'm also wary that I likely look aligned with Sirfetched, so w/e

[Wooper]

I kinda lost the wim to passionately fight my lynch if it makes sense quite a while ago. I think I'm correctly readable here but I'm also misreadable and if Luca/Kerset (probable towncore) are both reading me the same way it's fine

Last scum had played well - I suppose it's Adorable, if cleared then just skitter

[Luca Blight]

I'm getting

'despondent scum'

vibes from Wooper's recent posting tbh. I'm very tempted to lynch there today, but no-lynch is the safer play.

VOTE: No-Lynch

If Wooper is indeed scum then he isn't winning this game anyway, and no-lynch gives us a bit of insurance.

[Kerset]

I wish we could get more suji thoughs as he may be gone tomorrow.

[Luca Blight]

What are you currently thinking, Kerset?

[Kerset]

For me there is no difference in safety over nolynch. The question is whenever, I will be lonely in lylo.

[TheWizard]

NoLynch (1):

Luca Blight

Not Voting (5):

Wooper, Sujimichi, skitter30, Kerset, Adorable

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-12-09 21:44:00)

[Sujimichi]

I wish we could get more suji thoughs as he may be gone tomorrow.

What would you like to hear from me? I believe the game will be over once we lynch Wooper, but I am okay with no lynching. I think skitter30's outline helped me understand it a little bit better beyond my initial thoughts.

[skitter30]

@suji @kerset i think basically the play comes down to which endgame path you lot feel most confident solving, and which myly/lylo you want to be in

wooper's feeling a lot less ~ motivated~ and more ~not caring~ today than previously

[Adorable]

VOTE: No Lynch

i'm getting a bad feeling from both Wooper and Skitter. Skitter's post comes off as she wants to lynch today either me or Wooper and if we get a mislynch today it will be lylo and maybe Skitter really is scum in the end. Wooper's last post looks shady saying he thinks I am probably the last scum when I am the one who has been game solving today figuring out between Wooper and Skitter which one is scum and no lynch today is good since basically we can corner the last scum tomorrow and for sure scum would rather want to avoid a no lynch today.

[Kerset]

I wish we could get more suji thoughs as he may be gone tomorrow.

What would you like to hear from me? I believe the game will be over once we lynch Wooper, but I am okay with no lynching. I think skitter30's outline helped me understand it a little bit better beyond my initial thoughts.

If that is really all then i won't force you
VOTE: No Lynch
Unless skitter give us red result, i also think that wooper is the best lynch.

[Kerset]

Pls no 24h twilight

[Sujimichi]

I think lynching Wooper wins the game. I don't find the Night 2 Vigilante claim to be credible given only one kill that night, and I doubt that Billy's wagon was purely town (there was two mafia on Xayah). He has to be the first lynch as he would have chosen Vengeful as scum. In the less likely scenario that it is not Wooper, I think it has to be Adorable due to:

• PMysterious play (or lack thereof).
• Her reads in post 2179.
• The slot's voting record
• Process of elimination on the remaining slots.
  • Luca Blight is unlikely to be mafia given his record on voting mafia, draft selection, and general play.
  • Skitter30 is unlikely to be mafia given her role choice and general play.
    • If Mafia, why would she choose gunsmith and then be required to clear players?
    • If Mafia and Neighborizer, why did she not use it?
  • Kerset is cleared.
  • I am cleared.

[Kerset]

Don't you feel that adorable lacks of coaching?