Mainstream Mafia II: D&D Edition [FIN]

[Pink Ball]

Can you guys make me a solid and not end the day before sunday?

[Cephrir]

I just figured out that someone is an even night vig.

[Iconeum]

My flavour is that I've been summoned by some dude to go round and stab people for them. If I stab enough people they're all happy and like "cool, thanks bro you're free to do as you wish" at which point, being the knight of death, I continue to stab people. If I die before I've stabbed enough people the dude that summoned me goes "aw man! that death night dude was useless, now I have to go round and stab the people I wanted him to stab" and becomes an SK. Pretty simple stuff.

This means you weren't blocked, but that you targeted me and failed. No wonder your faction wants me dead

[Amrun]

My flavour is that I've been summoned by some dude to go round and stab people for them. If I stab enough people they're all happy and like "cool, thanks bro you're free to do as you wish" at which point, being the knight of death, I continue to stab people. If I die before I've stabbed enough people the dude that summoned me goes "aw man! that death night dude was useless, now I have to go round and stab the people I wanted him to stab" and becomes an SK. Pretty simple stuff.

This means you weren't blocked, but that you targeted me and failed. No wonder your faction wants me dead

Yo wtf are you even talking about.

[Untrod Tripod]

UNVOTE:

Alright. Also wondering if there might be better lynches for today. (Dave, UT, DEB, for example)

yeah bro let's lynch the fucking cult cop

[Amrun]

There’s no way UT is groupscum. He’d have to be very very clever cult recruiter and just like, gg if so.

[Cephrir]

There’s no way UT is groupscum.

Why? Because of the awkward zor interactions?

[EspressoPatronum]

Well, you can take pisskop off that list, 8722 reported true. My next price is becoming macho.

VOTE: Iconeum
I'm fine with this dying.

Why did you choose 8722?

Pisskop is asking ML to repeat that phrase, not saying it about himself. It could probably come back as true even if he's scum.

[EspressoPatronum]

I just figured out that someone is an even night vig.

Probably best to keep their identity to yourself for now.

[Amrun]

There’s no way UT is groupscum.

Why? Because of the awkward zor interactions?

Yeah. Plus he was pretty vocal about Titus too.

[KidAmn]

Well, you can take pisskop off that list, 8722 reported true. My next price is becoming macho.

VOTE: Iconeum
I'm fine with this dying.

Why did you choose 8722?

Pisskop is asking ML to repeat that phrase, not saying it about himself. It could probably come back as true even if he's scum.

That's a hell of a catch. Depending on the interpretation, asking someone to repeat that means... well, it means there's no lie in there. Which would make an awful lot of sense to use if you're someone with a vested interest in reporting false innocence of certain other parties.

[pisskop]

Well, I mean I was trolling a little, but it was meant to be a statment about myself as well.

[pisskop]

And their refusal to say it was why i targeted them last night.

[pisskop]

And, while Im flattered to be cleared, why did you target me over lurkers or icon or . . . anyone?

[Iconeum]

My flavour is that I've been summoned by some dude to go round and stab people for them. If I stab enough people they're all happy and like "cool, thanks bro you're free to do as you wish" at which point, being the knight of death, I continue to stab people. If I die before I've stabbed enough people the dude that summoned me goes "aw man! that death night dude was useless, now I have to go round and stab the people I wanted him to stab" and becomes an SK. Pretty simple stuff.

This means you weren't blocked, but that you targeted me and failed. No wonder your faction wants me dead

Yo wtf are you even talking about.

killflavour

it specifically said someone who i'm very much assuming is me, got stabbed

[davesaz]

I'm at the bottom of 399, just saw the FBI agent claim.

I have to drive for ~4 hours round trip to get my daughter from the airport. There are additional scheduled activities tonight and for the next 3 days. I will do what I can but 15 pages behind already and I expect it to grow faster than I can read it.

[Cephrir]

I just figured out that someone is an even night vig.

Probably best to keep their identity to yourself for now.

Not anyone in particular, I just mean that the vig kill flavor (I think) has only showed up on even nights.

[gobbledygook]

I have been trying to reduce the amount of times that I post. This will be a large post as a result.

First, I will be fairly MIA until Tuesday due to my VLA. As Pink Ball has requested, please do not end the day before then. Especially with an Iconeum lynch. I think that would do more harm than good.

Second, playing against cult be like.

Menalque: (xofelf, Rautherdir, Amrun, Elements, Pine, EspressoPatronum)

TrueSoulEnergy: (pisskop, Miss Lynch, Untrod Tripod, Cephrir, zoraster, KidAmn)

I haven’t analyzed flavor yet but assuming at this moment that TSE was killed by zoraster.

If bingle didn't get my letter n3 then I was also blocked that night which confirms multitasking.

I got a letter during a dayphase and crumbed it shortly after receiving it, but my night result that night was delayed that night too.

This enter/ico byplay is dumb and neither is a good lynch choice. Ico, this is a cult game. We literally can’t afford multiple lynches on roles that can’t snowball into us losing in the next couple of days. Stop arguing that we do so.

We need to confirm both flavor cops abilities, but neither is a good lynch for today.

Cult recruiter is likely a player with no confirmable role or an anti scum investigation role. People with confirmable roles who haven’t been scanned by rauth should claim immediately. EP should claim whether he is multi shot or not.

RCE and

Gobbles have my personal endorsement as “the most conftown player in the game

”

for listen to their posts, because both are objectively saying the right things to focus on today.

Gobbles, could you wallpost your reasons for discounting others as cultist? I trust, but want to verify.

Ico should redirect ep onto one of me/RCE/gobbles/anyone else who is consensus or mech obvtown at the end of day today to prevent nk/rolestopper shenanigans.

Third, re: red bolded, see spoiler.

Spoiler: Spoiler

Fourth, re: green bolded, see below.

01. Pine - claimed motivator, confirmed by BBmolla and Bingle. Play does not seem like cult. Not cult leader.
02. Untrod Tripod - claimed cult cop, ability is not confirmed, but play does not seem like cult
05. Amrun - claimed death investigator, ability is not confirmed, but play does not seem like cult
06. Iconeum - claimed redirector, ability is not confirmed, but play does not seem like cult
08. Rautherdir - claimed Lie Detector, ability is not confirmed, but play does not seem like cult
09. BBmolla - claimed flavor cop, ability confirmed by Flavor Leaf. Not cult leader
15. Bingle - claimed FBI agent, ability confirmed by Elements. Play does not seem like cult. Not cult leader.
17. xofelf - claimed cult counter, ability confirmed by the mod's flavor paragraphs. Play does not seem like cult.
18. Gamma Emerald - ???, cult copped by UT, negative result. Not cult leader.
19. Pink Ball - 3P Bulletproof and Unrecruitable innocent child, not confirmed, but may be confirmed shortly, cult copped by UT, negative result. Not Cult leader.
21. Dr Easy Bake - ???, could be cult leader.
23. RCEnigma - Day Cop/Messenger, ability confirmed by Bingle. Not cult leader.
24. davesaz - ???, could be cult leader
25. Miss Lynch - ???, confirmed by Pisskop. Not cult leader.
26. Elements - Serial Killer, confirmed by KidAmn, Amrun, and multiple deaths. Not cult leader.
28. pisskop - ???, confirmed by Cephrir/Raurthedir. Not cult leader.
32. gobbledygook - gated friendly neighbor, confirmed by BBmolla, play does not seem like cult. Not cult leader.
33. Cephrir - ???, cult copped by UT. Not cult leader.
34. chennisden - claimed double voter, play does not seem like cult.
36. Almost50 - ???, play does not seem like cult.
38. KidAmn - Jailkeeper, ability confirmed by Elements. Not cult leader.
40. EspressoPatronum - role confirmed by Gobbledygook. Not cult leader.

As you can see, many people are confirmed not to be the cult leader based on their ability claims and being verified by other players. The shortlist of people who have not claimed their ability or have been verified by another player is {Dr. Easy Bake, Daveaz, Almost50}.

Personally, I want to explore Daveaz as his play seems like what I would imagine cult leader wants to do. Get mostly townread and then coast. That is why I am voting him. Dr. Easy Bake and Almost50 have been nonpresences this entire game. However, they have various arguments supporting their status as not cult leader. Dr. Easy Bake I feel like would have culted different individuals. Almost50's reaction to me asserting suspicion of him as cult also felt genuine. That said, I would not shed a single tear if either of them perished.

The list of people who could ACTUALLY be cult is more expansive than the above three names. It technically includes {Untrod Tripod, Amrun, Iconeum, Raurthedir, xofelf, Dr. Easybake, Miss Lynch, pisskop, chennisden, Almost50}. However, various arguments could apply to these individuals not being cult leader.

Untrod Tripod - big brain move to claim cult cop as cult leader.
Amrun - her role is technically only confirmable to scum, I do not think that cult leader would out themselves to scum like that
Iconeum - his role and the way he claimed it do not make me think he is cult leader. Could still very possibly be scum.
Raurthedir - his role is only confirmable to scum, I do not think cult leader would out themselves to scum like that.
Xofelf - I do not think cult leader would specifically be announcing how many people the town should look for.
Dr. Easybake - see above
Miss Lynch - the play and claim make me think that this is not cult leader.
pisskop - unless Raurthedir is scum or if his role is actually broken (as in doesn't work), pisskop cannot be cult leader
chennisden - I do not think cult leader ties themselves to a double vote ability that can very easily be proven.
Almost50 - see above.

Now, my analysis of these people solely pertains to cult leader. Those individuals could very easily be scum. More on this below.

Fifth, how do you use the list= tag? I am terribly inept at this forum interface.

Sixth,

things that are weird and need to be thought about and discussed more.

1. Amrun's Night 1 list on the Formerfish killer seems to be incorrect unless UT is groupscum which is unlikely. This casts doubt on Amrun's ability. We know that an Aasimir woman killed Formerfish the first night. We know from flavor that this woman is most likely Nualia Tobyn. The list for the people who killed Formerfish is the following:

Night 2 : Korina, EspressoPatronum, zoraster, TrueSoulEnergy, Wooper, Untrod Tripod

The only people who are still alive from that list are Untrod Tripod and EspressoPatronum. That leaves several possibilities: (a) Amrun is lying about her role, (b) Amrun's role did not work on Night 2, (c) Korina is the Aasimir woman, (d) Untrod Tripod is the Aasimir woman, (e) EspressoPatronum is the Aasimir woman, (f) our interpretation of the Night 1 flavor is incorrect, meaning the Aasimir woman did not kill Formerfish. I have role information that confirms possibility e is incorrect as EspressoPatronoum as of Night 5 was aligned with the town. Untrod Tripod's play makes possibility d unlikely. Character flavor seems to imply that Xanesha is not an Aasimir woman. We need to discuss the gravity of possibility a, b, and f.

2. Raurthedir's role apparently did not work when it came to InsideJob's post. As I have discussed before, Menalque was most likely the N1 recuirt. This means that InsideJob would not have had a reason to lie about their result meaning Zoraster is town. This raises doubt about the lie detector claim. Additionally, I find Raurthedir's use of the lie detector so far to be suboptimal and that raises his scum equity. It is possible that his role, like Amrun's role. Just does not actually work.

3. Under the assumption that Raurthedir is either scum or his role is useless, we need to evaluate pisskop's role. Pisskop is claiming an inferior flavor cop ability to BBmolla who is a full flavor cop from what I can tell of his iso. It seems very unlikely that there would be this overlap in roles in the game. We probably need pisskop to fully claim targets and nights.

4. We should probably massclaim. 85% of the game has claimed so far.

5. Iconeum could still be group scum. His play is reminiscent of his scumplay in Alisae v. Pine. Redirector is hardly a role that is town. There exists a world where scum!Iconeum redirects EspressoPatronum to scum!Zoraster because the scum team thinks that EspressoPatronum is the cult leader and are trying to suicide the cult leader. I need to look into Iconeum's iso leading up to Day 3 because the justification Iconeum gave about the redirection did not sit well with me.

6. We need to be cognizant of the makeup of the town. These are my working figures for the composition of the town.
22 players
17:5 - traditional town/scum break doe. That is currently in this game
12:2:1:2:5 - all 3p with original alignment, 2 cult, maximum scum
13:1:1:2:5 - 1 3P culted, other 3p self aligned, maximum scum
15:1:1:2:3 - 1 3P culted, other 3p self aligned, minimum scum
14:2:1:2:3 - all 3P self aligned, 2 cult, minimum scum

7. We need to prove Chennisden's role as a double voter today. He needs to full claim. The way he claimed the other day made it seem as if he got something if he successfully hammered someone with the double voter. That could potentially be a scum ability.

8. We still do not know who cemented Untrod Tripod and Zoraster's votes.

[gobbledygook]

The last line on the composition (starting with 14 town) assumes that Miss Lynch and Elements alignment are connected. Meant to break that up to 1:1 to make it clearer. The number 2 that is second from the right is the current amount of cult that we can verify through Xofelf and the flavor.

[Amrun]

Gobble, it’s also possible I was redirected, though I think that’s unlikely.

I think perhaps we just need to disregard night 2 list. 2 scum have flipped off of it. That’s probably all there is to it, and there’s some explanation for the flavor deduction being wrong.

I will be really, really annoyed if I end up being doubted for that.

[gobbledygook]

Gobble, it’s also possible I was redirected, though I think that’s unlikely.

I think perhaps we just need to disregard night 2 list. 2 scum have flipped off of it. That’s probably all there is to it, and there’s some explanation for the flavor deduction being wrong.

I will be really, really annoyed if I end up being doubted for that.

I understand. We need to enter the trust but verify stage of town cohesion. In good faith, we must discuss the problems with your list.

[Amrun]

Also on 2, I don’t understand. Zor wasn’t town. So why would that make you doubt Rauth? Rauth was also daycopped by RCE.

Insidejob’s play doesn’t make sense but that’s not on Rauth.

[pisskop]

I will be really, really annoyed if I end up being doubted for that.

you arent playing like scum.

Or like I imagine cult leaders would.

[Rautherdir]

Well, you can take pisskop off that list, 8722 reported true. My next price is becoming macho.

VOTE: Iconeum
I'm fine with this dying.

Why did you choose 8722?

Pisskop is asking ML to repeat that phrase, not saying it about himself. It could probably come back as true even if he's scum.

That post is essentially:
"<quote>

<question>

<statement>"
And as such only the statement should matter for truth. As for why pisskop, most of the other people I wanted to target hadn't given posts for me to check.

[pisskop]

yea, can we get statements from everyone? Maybe now ML can say the part where their wincon is compatible with town?