Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[GuiltyLion]

Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol

[Amrun]

Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol

That’s why?! That’s funny.

The more DogWatch posts, the more I tonally think she’s town, but I don’t really have anything to say about the posts she mentioned. Except I agree that scum was pushing me (somewhere, I need to analyze with new flips in mind); and that Creature’s lynch was probably pretty safe and blend-y for scum.

[DrDolittle]

Hell[ooooooooooo amrun

[AaronFrost]

I'm not so convinced scum was on that wagon tbh. It was the amrun wagon that felt more scummy to me, not creature's.

amrun [7] - Menalque,

Datisi

,

Iconeum

,

AaronFrost

,

Dogwatch

,

GuiltyLion

,

Creature

Creature [8] - Salamence20,

GuiltyLion

,

Datisi

, Amrun,

AaronFrost

,

Dogwatch

,

Iconeum

, alimdia [LYNCH]

Can you break your reasons for this down for me? Because most of the people on the Amrun wagon were also on the Creature wagon.

[AaronFrost]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

[alimdia]

Scum can pick Guns, Aaron

it's kinda wifom but this made me townread aaron a little more since forgetting scum could pick gun would be more of a town perspective

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

I explained my hesitancy to vote him at the time, and I also explained why I eventually moved from you to him, so I don't see why you find anything about it 'forced.'

This is like, my entire point though. You made very sure to explain to us throughout that you were scumreading Creature. Then when a wagon started on him, you made very sure to explain to us that you were not sure what to do. Then when you voted him, you made very sure to tell us why you were finally voting him. It reads like a mechanical and crafted/calculated scum trajectory, not organic town doing shit to try to generate information.

I also think it's a pretty comical accusation from someone who jumped on the amrun wagon the way you did.

"comical", why use that word instead of something that might describe my alignment? You're more focused on discrediting the content of what I'm saying than evaluating me. And are we really still talking about that damn amrun vote when there's been probably 1000 posts since then?

Did you not have very similar situation with alimdia when you voted amrun? I don't think these circumstances are as different as you think.

It would have been similar if
- I stated I was scumreading alimdia throughout the game, similar to how I had (I later changed my mind but that's kinda irrelevant to this)
- Menalque or some other person started an alimdia wagon and it got 3-4 votes
- I didn't vote alimdia and made a post declaring how unsure I was about moving my vote, despite the fact that I had proclaimed a strong scumread on him earlier in the game
- I waited until basically a day before deadline before finally voting alimdia
- Alimdia flipped town

It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.

However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

[alimdia]

uh those quotes I had them saved in Q+ and they accidentally got posted, lemme get to them ....

[alimdia]

Scum can pick Guns, Aaron

it's kinda wifom but this made me townread aaron a little more since forgetting scum could pick gun would be more of a town perspective

I think its day 2 now. Town 'slips' are too easy to fake and shouldn't be taken at face value.

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

Yep

Did you not have very similar situation with alimdia when you voted amrun? I don't think these circumstances are as different as you think.

It would have been similar if
- I stated I was scumreading alimdia throughout the game, similar to how I had (I later changed my mind but that's kinda irrelevant to this)
- Menalque or some other person started an alimdia wagon and it got 3-4 votes
- I didn't vote alimdia and made a post declaring how unsure I was about moving my vote, despite the fact that I had proclaimed a strong scumread on him earlier in the game
- I waited until basically a day before deadline before finally voting alimdia
- Alimdia flipped town

Oh yeah, lets bring up how you changed your mind after being on 2 wagons
At that point your case against me was weakened by that you had no choice but to change your mind on me

[alimdia]

Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol

This is why meta sucks... And god if people use 2nd hand meta..

@GL, thoughts on DW's post 1418?
Love it when 2 SRs VS each other

[alimdia]

It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.

However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

Other than this, I think pushing DW, texcat or GL is the way to go today.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.1

Amrun [1] - DrDolittle
Dogwatch [1] - GuiltyLion
AaronFrost [1] - Datisi

Not Voting [8]

- Amrun, Dogwatch, Something_Smart, Iconeum, Menalque, alimdia, texcat, AaronFrost

With 11 alive it takes 6 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-12-21 11:56:16)

[alimdia]

V/LA from the 17th-18th of Dec

[Datisi]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.

[Datisi]

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

Also I don't think we should have the Town gun out, at least not yet?

[Datisi]

@mod, I'm voting Aaron

[AaronFrost]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.

So because Creature was scumreading me that means everything I do is fake and insincere? That logic might hold up if Creature was still in the game, but he's not. And even if he was, his read on me wouldn't effect how I play the game.

[Something_Smart]

Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol

Different how?

[Menalque]

I need to sit with this game for a bit,

I need to reread ISOs and a lot of D1 with the Creature/Pretentious flips in mind,

and frankly that's not gonna happen for the rest of today so expect real stuff from me tomorrow

can more people engage with my DogWatch reasoning and her thoughts in 1425 and 1426? idk if scum would suggest that no scum were on the Creature wagon, that's a little out of left field

Same tbh

Okay, I’ll think about it

[Menalque]

I'm

not so convinced scum was on that wagon tbh

. It was the amrun wagon that felt more scummy to me, not creature's.

Okay, why?

tex and menal ping me most currently. I don't know what to think about SS yet but he is a possibility. If there's any scum on creature's wagon, I'd lean towards Icon. I don't think DDL is scum fwiw.

Why am I pinging you

Why is tex pinging you

Why don’t you think DDL is scum?

What makes SS a possibility?

[Menalque]

VoteCount 1.10

GuiltyLion [1] - texcat
DrDolittle [2] - Menalque, Pretentious

Creature [8] - Salamence20, GuiltyLion, Datisi, Amrun, AaronFrost, Dogwatch, Iconeum, alimdia [LYNCH]

AaronFrost [1] - Something_Smart
Amrun [2] - Creature, DrDolittle

Not Voting [0]

-

With 14 alive it takes 8 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-12-11 13:35:31)

Okay, I’m thinking most probable is 2 on 1 off

That gives 2 scum in (GL, dats, amrun, AFF, dw, icon, alim) if right

And 1 scum in (tex, ddl, SS)

I think I’d rather hunt off wagon bc of that, as it makes for a 33% chance of hitting scum assuming 2 on 1 off is right

I think the resistance on the creature wagon now that he’s flipped town implies that scum were not all on. I think that would only make sense if scum were on early and pushing it, but we know sally is town

So prob 2 on 1 off, possibly 2 off 1 on given the level of resistance which would mean a 66% chance of hitting scum lynching off wagon

[Menalque]

Tex needs to post more content tbh

[Menalque]

Like there isn’t enough there for me to have a solid read yet

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

[Menalque]

Hmm, I was waiting for you to ask that. Not much.

I don’t love this answer btw datisi

[Something_Smart]

Okay, I’m thinking most probable is 2 on 1 off

That is statistically the most likely possibility (probably, haven't done the math).

I doubt it's any more likely than statistics say it is.

[Something_Smart]

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

Cooperation does not mean agreeing on everything