Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Menalque]

Okay, I’m thinking most probable is 2 on 1 off

That is statistically the most likely possibility (probably, haven't done the math).

I doubt it's any more likely than statistics say it is.

[Menalque]

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

Cooperation does not mean agreeing on everything

Yeah, I agree with that

But idk I felt like you were sort of consistently resisting my pushes or asking questions that were critical of them rather than asking me about why I wanted to push there

[Menalque]

Idk I need to reread you, it just felt different to what I remember of you disagreeing with me in the past

[Menalque]

Had you already had the thought about 2 on 1 off?

[Something_Smart]

I mean the level of opposition I'll hold against things people say varies from game to game based on several factors, primarily whether I actually disagree with what people are saying, lol.

Not sure if I do it more or less as scum. In fact I honestly have no idea what my scumgame would look like right now because my last scumgame was way different from any other one I've played.

[Something_Smart]

Had you already had the thought about 2 on 1 off?

No, I think that kind of unsupported VCA statement is garbage and a distraction.

I may read a specific player because I think their reasoning for being on or off the wagon did or didn't make sense, but trying to specifically hunt the scum who was off the wagon is a recipe for disaster.

[Menalque]

I mean the level of opposition I'll hold against things people say varies from game to game based on several factors, primarily whether I actually disagree with what people are saying, lol.

Not sure if I do it more or less as scum. In fact I honestly have no idea what my scumgame would look like right now because my last scumgame was way different from any other one I've played.

Am I right in thinking that was A2TGC?

[Menalque]

Had you already had the thought about 2 on 1 off?

No, I

think that kind of unsupported VCA statement is garbage and a distraction.

I may read a specific player because I think their reasoning for being on or off the wagon did or didn't make sense, but trying to specifically hunt the scum who was off the wagon is a recipe for disaster.

This, btw, is exactly what I’m talking about

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Also I hard disagree with this point, I think that unless you believe it’s likely scum were all on or off, it makes sense to split into PoE pools that give you the best odds of hitting scum unless you have a very strong individual scumresd that overrides that

[Menalque]

Subject: Pokémon Fusion U-Pick [Game Over]

VC 1.43

Emperor flippyNips (9): Menalque, Katyusha, Alchemist21, Dr Easy Bake, itlepip, Avengers, book kid, RCEnigma, Pink Ball
Avengers (3): Flavor Leaf, Emperor flippyNips, mastina
RCEnigma (2): [hated], MariaR
MariaR (2): jibril, Gamma Emerald
jibril (1): [hated]
Chemist1422 (1): [hated]
Not Voting (2): Something_Smart, Chemist1422
With 17 players alive, it takes 9 to reach a lynch. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2019-07-21 21:20:00).

So on the wagon there are 3 confirmed town in myself, Kat, book leaving (Menalque, Alch, Deb, itle, Avengers, PB)
Out of this pool scum likelihood is avengers/Menal/Alch/Deb/itle/PB. It's possible there are multiple scum ON wagon but more likely there are multiple scum OFF wagon.
Flippy is confirmed town Via flip and Mastina is town leaving FL, Maria, Gamma, Jibril, SS, Chemist.
Jibril is spewed town via oversouls replace out though I was reading town there beforehand. FL could be scum but I doubt it. It's also less important to catch FL as scum than his partners, FL will be tied to them on flips regardless.
Don't have strong reads on either non voter so Maria/Gamma/SS/Chemist is also a reasonable pool, all of which have some equity for scum.

This is actually close to my own analysis.

Katyusha, you, Pink Ball, and book kid are all pretty locktown; leaves probably 2 scum (could be as low as one or as high as three; I very sincerely doubt all four scum piled on to the mislynch) in {Menalque, Alchemist21, Dr Easy Bake, itlepip, Avengers}. Honestly I'd lynch any of those names though by gut I still feel like Menalque is less likely scum and generally don't feel strongly that itlepip would be scum (basically I think that the highest chance of finding scum is in the Alchemist/DEB/Avengers trio--I'll trust the townread on Alch tho to not focus on him as much).

Off the wagon, we know Avengers was all town but there's probably 2 scum (could be as low as one but probably not as high as three) in {MariaR, Gamma Emerald, Something_Smart, Chemist}.

In that pool of four, I'd rate them most scum to least scum in actually exactly that order, but I fully confess/admit that I don't really have good reads on any of them.

Basically I think that we have two pools; I'd most want to lynch in {Avengers > DEB > Alchemist21}, {MariaR > Gamma Emerald}.

I'm not sure those five contain the entire scumteam, but if I had to venture a scumteam guess right now, a scumteam composed among those five players would be my best educated guess.

Like I’ve been using the choice to hunt on or off wagon ever since mastina did this in PoE and kicked out the names of 3/4 scum with it, with 3/5 in her pools

If that can be aided by reasonable assumptions (namely, the wagon was too hard to have had 3 scum on it) then it makes sense to play within the group (on or off wagon) where you have the best odds of hitting scum

[Datisi]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.

So because Creature was scumreading me that means everything I do is fake and insincere?

That logic might hold up if Creature was still in the game, but he's not. And even if he was, his read on me wouldn't effect how I play the game.

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

[Datisi]

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Pret was the only person besides yourself who actually ended up voting DDL, and he's dead. Any reason you don't mention it/take it into account?

Plus, not like your DDL push was that hard (or working). S'there a reason to think scum!DDL fear-kills you like that?

[Datisi]

Hmm, I was waiting for you to ask that. Not much.

I don’t love this answer btw datisi

The dude's done p much nothing other than toot his own horn, call me scum and hunt for my ~buddies~. I'm not devastated he's dead.

[AaronFrost]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

[Something_Smart]

A2TGC

What does this mean

[texcat]

It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.

However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

I can't make heads nor tails of the first two sentences.

But the town gun should not claim. The only reason to claim would be if you were being lynched on the same day as your gun. Or perhaps they might claim if they were being lynched after they had used their shot.

[Menalque]

A2TGC

What does this mean

Added to the group chat

[Something_Smart]

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Your statement that it was probably 2 on 1 off, while true, was a distraction, because then you go on to say there's a 33% chance of hitting scum in {texcat, DDL, S_S}, which is not supported by math, and you've given no evidence for it.

[Something_Smart]

Added to the group chat

Oh. No, it was Baton Pass.

[Datisi]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

Do you think there's scum in that list? Who do you suspect?

And okay, but that logic could still only hold true if you were scum to begin with?

[AaronFrost]

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Your statement that it was probably 2 on 1 off, while true, was a distraction, because then you go on to say there's a 33% chance of hitting scum in {texcat, DDL, S_S}, which is not supported by math, and you've given no evidence for it.

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

[Menalque]

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Pret was the only person besides yourself who actually ended up voting DDL, and he's dead. Any reason you don't mention it/take it into account?

Plus, not like your DDL push was that hard (or working). S'there a reason to think scum!DDL fear-kills you like that?

I forgot about that, but I still think ddl would want to kill me over FL bc I think FL was more preoccupied with you than with him

Also I think ddl probably knows me enough to know that a push not gaining ground is something I’m likely to double down on pushing rather than forget about, and also bc he knows I can get pushes through

What’s your ddl read?

What do you think about my argument for why we should lynch off wagon?

[Something_Smart]

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

No. It's only true if we are completely positive that it's 2-on 1-off, which we aren't. Just because that's the most likely scenario doesn't mean we can take it for granted.

[Menalque]

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Your statement that it was probably 2 on 1 off, while true, was a distraction, because then you go on to say there's a 33% chance of hitting scum in {texcat, DDL, S_S}, which is not supported by math, and you've given no evidence for it.

Are you being intentional dense?

There are 4 unflipped players off the creature wagon

Me, you, ddl, tex

If it’s 2 on 1 off then fmpov there’s a 33% chance from lynching in (SS, ddl, tex)

It’s probably 2 on 1 off because of the wagon resistance on creature, maybe even 2 off 1 on, which is a point I’ve made about 3 times now so saying I’ve given no evidence for it is ???

[Menalque]

Do you think all 3 scum are on wagon @SS

[Datisi]

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Pret was the only person besides yourself who actually ended up voting DDL, and he's dead. Any reason you don't mention it/take it into account?

Plus, not like your DDL push was that hard (or working). S'there a reason to think scum!DDL fear-kills you like that?

I forgot about that, but I still think ddl would want to kill me over FL bc I think FL was more preoccupied with you than with him

Also I think ddl probably knows me enough to know that a push not gaining ground is something I’m likely to double down on pushing rather than forget about, and also bc he knows I can get pushes through

What’s your ddl read?

What do you think about my argument for why we should lynch off wagon?

You've played with DDL before?

Same as yesterday, disinterested nullish-Town.

I'm still thinking about it, I've never played a game that wasn't a Micro, I'm not yet familiar with VCA in this setting. Plus I'd like to revisit a couple of things from D1 properly, and I probably won't have time for that until Monday.