Newbie 1971 [Game Over!]

[Menalque]

Specifically on whether he got an FN notification, that’s all

[Menalque]

I can towncase myself if I need to, but I think the way the lynch unfolded yesterday makes me very, very town

[Menalque]

This is why I want to decide the order

[Menalque]

For newbies: it’s generally a good idea to have the scummiest person claim first in this situation because if they are scum they have more information overall but this forces them into a situation of less information. Specifically, they have to make claims either truthfully or in a situation where they lack knowledge (about which exact setup we’re in) and therefore risk dying immediately if they probably lie.

The reason we’re beginning mass claim now is to avoid a situation where two people claim the same thing in lylo (in a worst case scenario before then) but we also don’t want to have a true full claim because if we have investigates in the setup and they have clears then them revealing tomorrow is potentially enough to make this mechanically winning

[Billy Pilgrim]

I didnt get a message last night. I'm not claiming a role until we get consensus on mass claim. I'm not excited about that prospect 2 days out from LYLO either. Tomorrow makes sense, today is a bit too early.

[Menalque]

Although the more I think about it the more I think mass claim may just be winning so long as if we’re in an investigative setup noone checked GL

[Uncrowned]

I think we can solve this game quite easily by looking at the GBJ wagon. I don't know how I want to go about analyzing it yet, but one thing I'm pretty confident in is Map Wolf being Town now, due to his placement on the wagon.

Using this post as a reminder to go look at who was on the Non Wagon as well.

[Menalque]

I would like skitter to claim message from FN or not next

[Menalque]

Masons should never claim before lylo if we’re in a mason setup

[Menalque]

Also if we’re in a mason setup you should have already crumbed verifiable but obscure information about your mason buddy to be able to confirm yourself if they get NK’d right before lylo

[Billy Pilgrim]

Not gonna lie, a little surprised that GBJ didnt claim a pr though.

Gamestate wise, I also wonder whether both wagons may have been scum. I wanna look at the vote counts but given how late GBJ popped up, I'm wondering if there was ever a scum led counter wagon.

[Non lmh]

I wanna hammer.
just passing by

[Menalque]

@billy mass claim is correct apart from mason set ups or any set up where an investigative tracked GL because it would give 3 conftown in multiple columns or, if done in correct order, enough information for us to set up a dichotomy tomorrow that would catch scum if we’re in C1 or C2

[Menalque]

Yeah I really think my PoE here is strong enough that mass claim is winning in the right order

[Billy Pilgrim]

That's alot of ifs Mena. Here's where I'm at. I think Skitt as scum partner to GBJ at least sets up a fake claim situation to draw a pr in the event that the wagon builds, so even with V/LA Skitt, I think GBJ would have handled that situation differently if Skitt was his scumpartner.

That makes me think 2 newer scum partners, so I want to look at non, map wolf, kanna over the next three days. Actually that may be the solve is that progression.

Here's what concerns me. The way that Mena is coming in here asking for a mass claim well before it makes sense is strange. Honestly I think the only way hed feel comfortable with this is if he had info about the setup. And since it was a goon that flipped, the only way he has setup info is if hes scum. But I don't think scum Mena makes sense at all with D1. He was pushing the GBJ wagon hard and early. He was asking for extra votes on it, he was criticizing me for not being on it. And he did it at a time in the game state where he didnt need to bus. But now I worry about whether he did it for the town cred so he could lead a mass claim discussion to get nk targets.

I think the safer bet is that scum is in the 3 newer slots (Map/Non/Kanna). In fact I think maybe yesterday may have been SvS and that explains why GBJ was reluctant to vote his counter wagon. I think imma go that direction.

VOTE: Non

[Billy Pilgrim]

Yeah I really think my PoE here is strong enough that mass claim is winning in the right order

But I know you're wrong on me, so I have reason to doubt your belief here.

[Menalque]

Yeah I really think my PoE here is strong enough that mass claim is winning in the right order

But I know you're wrong on me, so I have reason to doubt your belief here.

Even if I am wrong on you doesn’t mean the PoE is likely to be wrong by extension

[Menalque]

Why does asking for mass here not make sense? Mass claiming here doesn’t make sense when you still have 2 scum still alive because of the risk of gambits where one scum claims they didn’t want to claim in mass because it was too early and the other “confirms” them

With only 1 scum alive gambiting becomes very difficult for scum and prevents any late game lylo fakeclaiming

[Billy Pilgrim]

Why does asking for mass here not make sense? Mass claiming here doesn’t make sense when you still have 2 scum still alive because of the risk of gambits where one scum claims they didn’t want to claim in mass because it was too early and the other “confirms” them

With only 1 scum alive gambiting becomes very difficult for scum and prevents any late game lylo fakeclaiming

Yeah, but that benefit also applies tomorrow, without the guarantee of exposing our pr(s) to the nk tonight. Because tomorrow cant be LYLO.

[skitter30]

I can towncase myself if I need to, but I think the way the lynch unfolded yesterday makes me very, very town

ya i agree
i did not receive a fn notification

i need to rethink my billy read
i'll be around some more tomorrow, sorry, dealing with some mental health stuff today

[skitter30]

I didnt get a message last night. I'm not claiming a role until we get consensus on mass claim. I'm not excited about that prospect 2 days out from LYLO either. Tomorrow makes sense, today is a bit too early.

tomorrow is probably the proper day

[skitter30]

Here's what concerns me. The way that Mena is coming in here asking for a mass claim well before it makes sense is strange. Honestly I think the only way hed feel comfortable with this is if he had info about the setup. And since it was a goon that flipped, the only way he has setup info is if hes scum. But I don't think scum Mena makes sense at all with D1. He was pushing the GBJ wagon hard and early. He was asking for extra votes on it, he was criticizing me for not being on it. And he did it at a time in the game state where he didnt need to bus. But now I worry about whether he did it for the town cred so he could lead a mass claim discussion to get nk targets.

i don't think mena is scum with the ggj push yesterday at all, whatsoever

[Kanna]

@Billy; why...would you vote Non?

[Kanna]

Very much disagree with the direction Billy is going here. I can understand some suspicion on me, but for everything else, I'm thinking the opposite.

skitter is very suspicious and Map/Non are very town imo.

[Kanna]

Mixed feelings about massclaim but I think I'm ok with Mena leading today. He's very town after yesterday.