Newbie 1971 [Game Over!]

[Uncrowned]

I'm trying to PoE this, so this is my initial reaction.

Map being 2nd on the GBJ wagon leads me to believe he's town. I don't see him jumping on so early when it wasn't all too obvious that GBJ was going to be the lynch, especially since there was still heat on Non at this point.

Non being the counter-wagon leads me to believe they're town. I doubt GBJ was bussing there since I don't think it was necessary. (This is my weakest elimination from the scum pool, I think there's still a chance of Scum!Non but I find it hard to believe)

Mena has been strong on GBJ for a while and thus I find it hard to believe that they're scum.


That leaves Kanna, BP and Skitter as possibilities for me.

Recently, those 3 have:

Kanna - Lightly defended GBJ. Wanted push on Map Wolf. GBJ joined her on this vote. (A little WIFOM, but i can see Scum!Kanna subtly trying to shift the wagon.)

BP - Suggested Non as second scum with both wagons being scum? Ehhhh. Not really a fan of that. I disagree pretty hard. Felt like he could've been trying to delay the hammer a bit, or at least see if GBJ would do anything to avoid getting lynched? And again, GBJ's interactions with him were just so... weird. The L-2 unvote. The "seems" town thing. Again, even more WIFOM shit that I don't want to get too caught up in.

Skitter - Gave intent to hammer on Non. Didn't like the wagon on GBJ. This slot kinda worries me, think they've been playing really smart. Think this is my least accurate read alongside my one on Non.

So this is practically how I'm seeing the game right now

Map Wolf & Menaleque - Super Strong TRs

Non - Weak TR

Skit - null / weak scum

BP / Kanna - highest chance of scum, imo

If anyone thinks i've gone too surface level with this announce or anything pls let me know, I just wanted to try and PoE this shit because I feel like there is some form of analysis we can do given the several wagons we had going on D1 and some interesting interactions between slots

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: Billy Pilgram

[Billy Pilgrim]

VOTE: Billy Pilgram

Show your work please.

[Map Wolf]

Yeah Mena, both Non and GBJ are low content slots, but I think the content from Non, mostly the early stuff, has a scum type motivation. I didn't see anything like that from GBJ. I also noticed that your scum case focused more on Kanna, so I'm a bit confused why in light of that you'd vote GBJ before Kanna.

Notice how he is trying to draw attention away from GBJ but onto Kanna. How townie.

actually yeah map wolf is weird
VOTE: Map wolf

So I'm weird for suggest that the whole "seems town" is a potential scumslip? Hmmm. Rings desperation.

[kanna, billy, guiltylion, non imh]
[skit, uncrowned]
[map wolf, mena]

Conviniently townreads Billy once again. Plays into my theory well.

[Map Wolf]

Now Billy isn't lock scum, but it sure makes a ton of sense. He also tried to resist the GBJ wagon.

[Billy Pilgrim]

I'm trying to PoE this, so this is my initial reaction.

Map being 2nd on the GBJ wagon leads me to believe he's town. I don't see him jumping on so early when it wasn't all too obvious that GBJ was going to be the lynch, especially since there was still heat on Non at this point.

Non being the counter-wagon leads me to believe they're town. I doubt GBJ was bussing there since I don't think it was necessary. (This is my weakest elimination from the scum pool, I think there's still a chance of Scum!Non but I find it hard to believe)

Mena has been strong on GBJ for a while and thus I find it hard to believe that they're scum.


That leaves Kanna, BP and Skitter as possibilities for me.

Recently, those 3 have:

Kanna - Lightly defended GBJ. Wanted push on Map Wolf. GBJ joined her on this vote. (A little WIFOM, but i can see Scum!Kanna subtly trying to shift the wagon.)

BP - Suggested Non as second scum with both wagons being scum? Ehhhh. Not really a fan of that. I disagree pretty hard. Felt like he could've been trying to delay the hammer a bit, or at least see if GBJ would do anything to avoid getting lynched? And again, GBJ's interactions with him were just so... weird. The L-2 unvote. The "seems" town thing. Again, even more WIFOM shit that I don't want to get too caught up in.

Skitter - Gave intent to hammer on Non. Didn't like the wagon on GBJ. This slot kinda worries me, think they've been playing really smart. Think this is my least accurate read alongside my one on Non.

So this is practically how I'm seeing the game right now

Map Wolf & Menaleque - Super Strong TRs

Non - Weak TR

Skit - null / weak scum

BP / Kanna - highest chance of scum, imo

If anyone thinks i've gone too surface level with this announce or anything pls let me know, I just wanted to try and PoE this shit because I feel like there is some form of analysis we can do given the several wagons we had going on D1 and some interesting interactions between slots

Where did Skitt say she didnt like the GBJ wagon?

[Billy Pilgrim]

I also dont think scum!Skitt wouldnt be on a wagon at EoD1. I think Skitt would have been somewhere. This seems more like Skitt actually trying to work out the game than driving it.

[Menalque]

kanna, you're next to claim if you got an FN notification

[Menalque]

@skitt sorry you're not doing great

when you get back could I get a readslist pls?

[Map Wolf]

By the way, can someone tell me what you mean by FN? Not familiar with the term.

[Menalque]

Friendly Neighbour, it's a role that can send a notification to one player per night who will be notified by the mod that the FN is town

For example, if I were to target you, you'd receive a message at day start from the mod saying "you know that Menalque is aligned with the town"

[Uncrowned]

@BP

I misread. Turns out Skit just didn't think GBJ was scum.

Post 500 and 507

[Uncrowned]

Actually wait, I found it.

Post 553

[Billy Pilgrim]

Actually wait, I found it.

Post 553

Ok, this point works, but do you think scum!Skitt allows the day to end while she isnt on a wagon. I really think that's something she wouldnt do.

[Map Wolf]

Actually wait, I found it.

Post 553

Ok, this point works, but do you think scum!Skitt allows the day to end while she isnt on a wagon. I really think that's something she wouldnt do.

No she'd definitely hammer.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Ok, iso'd gbj.

First vote in RVS is Map Wolf. (I've heard that scum will sometimes vote their partner first in RVS so maybe like +1/2)
Next vote is Mena - dont think that means anything
Starting at post 41, he starts hard defending Guilty and it's based on meta
Post 71, first scum read is uncrowned, he pushes this for a bit.
Next thing he does is votes my slot after its announced that Olaph is being replaced.
Between 199 and 250 he is interacting with me and asking me about Kanna
Then between 250 and 280 he is townreading me and starts directing toward non
Votes them at 346, then is their only scum read at like 424.
435 provides posts where they dont agree with Mena but doesnt scumread them
Mid 500s the posts get shorter.
621 gbj votes Map wolf because "they're weird"
624-637 goes back on non under direction from Guilty about making it easy for us to deadline lynch
656 goes back to Map to avoid being on Non at EoD

Final reads list is very similar to 424
Me, Kanna, and Guilty were town in both
Skitt stayed null
Uncrowned and Mena were mixed in the 424 post. Moved uncrowned to null and Mena to scum
The most interesting part of this is that Map and Non flipped places. Map went from town to scum. Non went from scum to town.

Now the question is whether hes the kind of player that won't comment on his partner, or whether hes the type of player that would and then determining where hed put his partner right before a flip.

If hes the type of player that wouldnt comment on his partner than Skitt is the one we need to look at. Like I said earlier, I think Skitt is probably town. I dont see why she ends the day off a wagon.

So I think he probably commented on his partner. And since he defended both me and Guilty, I think hes more likely to scumread his partner right before a flip than townread them.

So UNVOTE: Non

That leaves me between Mena and Map. Now, given how hard Mena drove the wagon yesterday I think it's unlikely to be him. He even hopped off than hopped back on. If hes bussing for town cred that play doesnt make sense. So I'm going with Map.

VOTE: Map

I'm gonna be away from my phone for like 6 or more hours so I'm interested to see how discussion moves forward.

[skitter30]

I think the safer bet is that scum is in the 3 newer slots (Map/Non/Kanna). In fact I think maybe yesterday may have been SvS and that explains why GBJ was reluctant to vote his counter wagon. I think imma go that direction.

VOTE: Non

Really? I'm kinda thinking non was a cw to ggj.

My pool rn is {map/uncrowned}
I still think kanna is p townie

[Menalque]

Trying to decide what an already lynched scum’s final readslist means is pointless

[Menalque]

We’re not lynching map or uncrowned today

[skitter30]

Why does asking for mass here not make sense? Mass claiming here doesn’t make sense when you still have 2 scum still alive because of the risk of gambits where one scum claims they didn’t want to claim in mass because it was too early and the other “confirms” them

With only 1 scum alive gambiting becomes very difficult for scum and prevents any late game lylo fakeclaiming

My instinct is to let prs do their thing for as long as possible, but i always forget how short newbies are.

I think that if we can get 2 clears/results today we should probably be claiming

[skitter30]

Very much disagree with the direction Billy is going here. I can understand some suspicion on me, but for everything else, I'm thinking the opposite.

skitter is very suspicious and Map/Non are very town imo.

Do tell (for all 3 reads)

[skitter30]

I think the safer bet is that scum is in the 3 newer slots (Map/Non/Kanna). In fact I think maybe yesterday may have been SvS and that explains why GBJ was reluctant to vote his counter wagon. I think imma go that direction.

VOTE: Non

Really? I'm kinda thinking non was a cw to ggj.

My pool rn is {map/uncrowned}
I still think kanna is p townie

Oh billy too, i forgot to write him

[skitter30]

Where did Skitt say she didnt like the GBJ wagon?

I said it like six times yesterday
Obviously i was wrong

[skitter30]

@skitt sorry you're not doing great

when you get back could I get a readslist pls?

Tyty
Doing better today, i guess, still not awesome tho

{You}
{Kanna}
{Non}
{Uncrowned/map wolf}
{Billy}

[skitter30]

Actually wait, I found it.

Post 553

Ok, this point works, but do you think scum!Skitt allows the day to end while she isnt on a wagon. I really think that's something she wouldnt do.

No she'd definitely hammer.

Nah, i'd probably try to get in on the wagon ~spot 2