Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Datisi]

GL, do you have any other games with DDL other than the one you linked earlier?

[GuiltyLion]

nah, I think that's the only game we've played together. I vaguely recall reading some other games with him in them but that was probably years ago and irrelevant

[Menalque]

this is talking about my ddl push D1, correct?

yes, your D1 DDL """push""", and immediate dropping of said push for you being alive even tho 50% of the people voting DDL ended up dead

and also DDL barely mentioning you and having this sorta weird TR on you throughout the game that he handwaves as "townies are wrong"

and now you stopping his lynch again

well yeah exactly, I never really got the chance to push it D1 and when I did people stayed glued onto creature despite the reasons for SRing him being bad

also I don't think I dropped it today, I just said I wanted to reconsider? why is me saying I want to reconsider scum!indicative? esp when I was the strongest advocate for a ddl Lynch and the easiest way to control whether you're getting pushed or not is using the nk as scum to remove people who are likely to be problematic for you and ddl had plenty of reasons to believe I'd be problematic for him today (as in he didn't have good reasons to think I would consider my not being dead in this way)

I haven't got to that point yet but are you not also TRing me? so why is ddl TRing me weird? do you think he should be omgusing regardless of alignment?

also tbh if he is scum at this point then him continuing to TR me makes sense because somehow this "mena is bussing ddl" theory has gained traction

which also doesn't make sense because how are you reconciling my constant anti-bus position with me deciding to bus on D1?

and I'm pausing his lynch because I'd ideally like him to answer my questions without anyone being able to lolhammer, I'm only stopping it if his answers are enough to persuade me he's not scum

Where? You made an actual case on Amrun. All you did wrt to DDL was ask people to vote and make some arguements about inactivity or whatever. Like when you get the time I'd like you to kinda go a bit more in depth there and wrt your Creature TR

okay cool you wanted to reconsider but the only person who gave you any consideration for voting DDL ended up dead and you don't comment on that part at all, like if there was absolutely nobody listening to you except for that 1 person then removing that one person could do a very good job of stopping the wagon and I found it really weird you didn't even seem to consider that?

I'm TRing you yes, but it's shaky, and I'm very not sold on it yet. DDL TRing you wouldn't be as weird if he tried to actually engage with you about your SR on him and maybe try to get you to untunnel or anything? Like don't Townies getting pushed by someone they TR like try to interact with that slot? Instead he gives it p much zero thought and keeps TRing you regardless because "not in danger of getting lynched" or whatever

And I called it "theatre". In scum!Mena and scum!DDL world, that wasn't bussing. The way you "pushed" him, then dropped it gave a vibe of you not wanting to lynch him in the first place.

so, I think I put in a fairly minimal amount of effort casing amrun, and also there was more there to case -- with ddl, the case is the lack of activity. I can do this, and will, same for my creature TR but if we're about to chat in real time then I'm prob gonna focus on being here and participating in that rather than posting something that's 5 pages behind the conversation

you actually make a v good point on the pret kill potentially being to rob ddl wagon of support while not being as much of a red finger pointed that way as killing me directly would be after calling for him to be lynched. however, still depends on whether scum!ddl believes I could get a wagon going on him bc if he does then I would still expect him to be somewhat worried about leaving me alive for D2 to push him

I mean if ddl is scum then him choosing to TR me without talking to me that much makes a lot of sense,

especially

since you started floating the idea of it being theatre, bc then it looks bad for me if he flips scum as opposed to what it should do which is make me borderline conf town bc again, I DON'T BUS unless it's strictly necessary and you know this is true because I hard fought you on whether we should bus even when it was becoming strictly necessary

you can also look in C9++ scum thread and see that I'm strongly against bussing throughout while it's not necessary

me being unsure isn't me saying I don't want to lynch him, it's saying there are things that are giving me pause and that I'd ideally like to give him a chance to respond to me before we lynch him

[Menalque]

Because it provides town plenty of insulation? Why do you think town having many guns is good?

I don't think having

many

guns is good, as evident by last run

But with one Town gun being dead before he got to shoot and with hell knowing what's the status of the other one, this game might be getting close to mountainous? And i don't like Town's chances there

Also Gamma, I kinda think the problem of your catch-up is speed? You've only done 5 pages, and the game has over 70, with the Day ending in a bit over two days. Your slot has done jack shit this game, and unless we get p lucky with our roses, tomorrow is most likely LyLo/MyLo if we mislynch.

So would be good to have some substance to read your slot I guess? Rather than waiting for the long catch up that's half just fluff.

Eh it’s still not mountainous because there are still Roses to stop kills, beyond that your point is somewhat fair regarding performance in mountainous, but what has happened that makes you doubt town’s abilities?
And yeah I’ll be working on more catch-up today, yesterday ended up unexpectedly super packed with other business. I hope to get to like Page 25 today.

can you stop focusing on catch up and try to be around to interact in real time bc as someone already said that's probably more useful at this point

[GuiltyLion]

Menalque let's say you're town and DDL is scum, any guesses as to who are his partners?

[DrDolittle]

What do you want me to respond to? I gave all my reads and whatnot so

[Menalque]

his disengagement here is enough that it's at least making me question my SR because idk if scum does this little to prevent their lynch/if his scum buddies would also be doing such little to prevent his lynch

why does town do this little to prevent their lynch? when I'm town and at L-1 I'm making gigantic wall posts of all my last reads and thoughts, both to try not to get lynched as one desperate last measure and to help town after my flip

I think you're doing to ddl what I did with regard to you, i.e. reading him not doing what you would be doing as meaning he's scum

I think giving up is slightly +town, esp when you still have multiple buddies left who could help steer the wagon away

if you're scum and getting lynched, it counts a lot more against your faction than if you're town and you get mislynched so scum are more incentivised to try to stop the lynch whereas I think town are more likely to decide it's not worth the effort to hard fight it

I think this doesn't hold up so well when scum are (1) already committed to bussing the member so they're already defeatist about going down or (2) they're the last one left so they know they'd have to try and dig themselves out on their own which can seem like a waste of time when it's probably just gonna result in your lynch anyway

[Menalque]

Menalque let's say you're town and DDL is scum, any guesses as to who are his partners?

AFF is prob one of them

[Menalque]

maybe SS too? I'm not convinced scum is bussing atm, the wagon is generally townie

could be icon/alim/gemerald too but I'd lean most confident on AFF followed by SS

[Menalque]

What do you want me to respond to? I gave all my reads and whatnot so

err 2 secs lemme find it

[GuiltyLion]

idk I guess I think giving up is +town when it still feels like you're genuinely trying to help with where to look post-flip, but I feel DDL is just clamping up to not town-spew anybody by this point. he's saying "lynch Amrun" but not actually trying to convince anybody in particular to lynch Amrun. like 1955 just feels super scummy to me

[Menalque]

@ddl what was your last scum game?

I understand both SS and amruns perspective and they come from so different mindsets that it shouldnt be theatre

can you explain what you meant by this @ddl

@ddl

[Menalque]

I keep expecting S_S to explain that naked vote on me, but nope. Just hangin out for presumably no reason.


I strongly townread GL now, fwiw. On day 1 I could not follow his train of thought in a genuine way. D2, with the realization that he was comparing it so specifically to high noon, I do.

Menalque, why are you categorizing DogWatch as a lurker? I don’t.

because she has the lowest posts of everyone in the game aside from alim and tex/gamma!slot

I just checked and she had only 3 more posts than alim at the time that you posted this and he hasn't posted in 3 days so my question back to you is why don't you think that's lurky?

Eh, she’s been present for every major game state IIRC. Whenever she posts, it’s content. Not everyone is a spammer. That aspect doesn’t bother me.

eh, I'll reread, I'd say she's had a very low thread presence imo which is lurky

do you consider lurky to be inherently scummy?

[Datisi]

so, I think I put in a fairly minimal amount of effort casing amrun, and also there was more there to case -- with ddl, the case is the lack of activity. I can do this, and will, same for my creature TR but if we're about to chat in real time then I'm prob gonna focus on being here and participating in that rather than posting something that's 5 pages behind the conversation

you actually make a v good point on the pret kill potentially being to rob ddl wagon of support while not being as much of a red finger pointed that way as killing me directly would be after calling for him to be lynched. however, still depends on whether scum!ddl believes I could get a wagon going on him bc if he does then I would still expect him to be somewhat worried about leaving me alive for D2 to push him

I mean if ddl is scum then him choosing to TR me without talking to me that much makes a lot of sense, especially since you started floating the idea of it being theatre, bc then it looks bad for me if he flips scum as opposed to what it should do which is make me borderline conf town bc again, I DON'T BUS unless it's strictly necessary and you know this is true because I hard fought you on whether we should bus even when it was becoming strictly necessary

you can also look in C9++ scum thread and see that I'm strongly against bussing throughout while it's not necessary

me being unsure isn't me saying I don't want to lynch him, it's saying there are things that are giving me pause and that I'd ideally like to give him a chance to respond to me before we lynch him

Yes sure but you did ~something~. I know the day is about to end and shit but if both of us are alive tomorrow I would very much appreciate that (or maybe even later on because I'm tired and drunk and dunno how long I'll be here)

Okay cool, in scum!DDL world it makes sense for him to continuously TR you, esp if people think it's SvS, fair. But does that add to your read on him? I remember you saying somewhere you get SR's when getting shitpushed, does getting shitTRed not do anything?

And you may be missing my point here. If you two are both scum, I'm saying it

wasn't

a bus - that you never intended for him to get lynched in the first place, but were instead planning on dropping the push after you "didn't die" because "scum!DDL would've killed you".

And like, he's barely responding, and I think I've seen him online. GL said something about this earlier, how does that factor in a read? Why is that strictly town!indicative?

pedit: oh god so many fucking posts wtf hi DDL

[Menalque]

so actually I did reread creature's ISO and I think he was very clearly engaged and trying to get reads on multiple players by the end of day

would you disagree with that assessment @amrun

He picked it up, yes, but Creature is a high post rate player no matter what he’s playing. I find post count irrelevant. I also think all his reads at the end when he “seemed” more engaged were really, really bad.

well no, I don't agree

I think that creature being lurky isn't really AI for him, but I've consistently only seen him put down big numbers as town with one exception

so I do think that him hyperposting 80 posts is certainly enough to not lynch him on D1 based on his meta and I think that scum would definitely want creature dead if they could plausibly mislynch him and no-one acknowledging that creature is a great mislynch for scum to get if possible is bad

why were his reads really bad?

[Menalque]

I just disagree with 1939 tbh, I think that was creature playing normally and trying to sort

[DrDolittle]

Scum game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81110

SS is playing bayesian updating based on creatures reads. It makes sense and is consistent. Amrun is arguing from the perspective of SS is not doing reads, which is true but not that it's wrong. They just talked over each other.

Hi datisi

[Menalque]

Also, I don’t buy tinfoil on this one. One at most of DDL/Menal is scum.

I also do not read his giving up as a town thing

.

why, ideally giving voice to why you think my logic in 1956 is wrong

[GuiltyLion]

could be icon/alim/gemerald too but I'd lean most confident on AFF followed by SS

this isn't bad, I can see this assuming you're town. I was thinking I need to be re-evaluating in Ico/alim/Smart on a DDL scumflip. AFF is a maybe, I did get major early-game pings from him but I've thought his later play was townie and he felt like a potential mislynch for scum, as it stands I think I'd need some convincing there or see how the rest of my townreads are looking at him

[Amrun]

I keep expecting S_S to explain that naked vote on me, but nope. Just hangin out for presumably no reason.


I strongly townread GL now, fwiw. On day 1 I could not follow his train of thought in a genuine way. D2, with the realization that he was comparing it so specifically to high noon, I do.

Menalque, why are you categorizing DogWatch as a lurker? I don’t.

because she has the lowest posts of everyone in the game aside from alim and tex/gamma!slot

I just checked and she had only 3 more posts than alim at the time that you posted this and he hasn't posted in 3 days so my question back to you is why don't you think that's lurky?

Eh, she’s been present for every major game state IIRC. Whenever she posts, it’s content. Not everyone is a spammer. That aspect doesn’t bother me.

eh, I'll reread, I'd say she's had a very low thread presence imo which is lurky

do you consider lurky to be inherently scummy?

I guess it depends on your definition of lurking. If you’re simply comparing number of posts down a list, no.

I guess my answer is still no, either way, though.

I think lurking is inherently antitown, but it’s a behavior town frequently engage in too. I just recently tried to stop a mislynch in LUV (chronic lurker) upon replacing into a game because I think his play, while antitown, made most sense to be town motivated. (I was right, fwiw.)

For me, it depends on HOW a player is lurking. What junctures do they choose to pop in? What do they say, when they do?

A lurker probably has better than random chance at being scum, so I guess that kinda makes my answer yes, but... Context really does matter.

The shit texcat did, beetlejuicing and deliberately avoiding commitment on most major gamestate changes, THAT is lurking I find tremendously scummy. Gamma’s, however, is NAI because he’s catching up so he’s in a grace period for me.

[Datisi]

Menalque let's say you're town and DDL is scum, any guesses as to who are his partners?

AFF is prob one of them

What's your read on AFF? Is this just based on a scum!DDL flip or...?

[Amrun]

so actually I did reread creature's ISO and I think he was very clearly engaged and trying to get reads on multiple players by the end of day

would you disagree with that assessment @amrun

He picked it up, yes, but Creature is a high post rate player no matter what he’s playing. I find post count irrelevant. I also think all his reads at the end when he “seemed” more engaged were really, really bad.

well no, I don't agree

I think that creature being lurky isn't really AI for him, but I've consistently only seen him put down big numbers as town with one exception

so I do think that him hyperposting 80 posts is certainly enough to not lynch him on D1 based on his meta and I think that scum would definitely want creature dead if they could plausibly mislynch him and no-one acknowledging that creature is a great mislynch for scum to get if possible is bad

why were his reads really bad?

I just disagree with 1939 tbh, I think that was creature playing normally and trying to sort

You likely have much more extensive experience with Creature, so you may well be right. However, I can only base my opinion off of my own experience, and that’s how I felt about it at the time.

And his reads were bad because I townread ALL of them.

Two are confirmed town (to me): sal, myself. The other two are icon and AF. Early game I agreed with the AF read (obviously) but now I TR AF. Iconeum I fairly strongly townread.

Time will tell, I guess.

[Amrun]

Also, I don’t buy tinfoil on this one. One at most of DDL/Menal is scum.

I also do not read his giving up as a town thing

.

why, ideally giving voice to why you think my logic in 1956 is wrong

I agree with 1956, overall. However, we don’t know he isn’t being bussed to hell, for starters, so 1) could be true.

Giving up isn’t optimal behavior as any alignment. However, in this case, and given the player it is, I find it more likely to come from scum ddl. GL’s dug up meta is in line with my remembrance of him as a player. Pretty sure he just doesn’t like rolling scum.

[DrDolittle]

I have not given up

[Menalque]

Like I'm not doubting that Amrun is a strong player or anything, but the case 'she isn't playing to her meta, must be scum' is shallow and surface level.

No you are right AF. Shes not playing to her meta. I should town read her

I'm not saying that you have to TR her, I'm saying that if you are SRing her, then you should attempt to make a case on her that isn't meta.

@dats I really didn't like the timing on this, it happened right after I voted ddl and GL indicated a willingness to vote there and I think that their recent interactions (one SRing amrun and one Thing her) makes sense as scum distancing plus I don't think he really wanted to get involved in the ddl wagon until it was end of day and so I can see the willingness to hammer thing being a bus bc driving a new wagon onto town very likely gets ddl lynched tomorrow anyway and the person responsible for redirecting would look terrible