01. Pine - Motivator (Confirmed to exist)
09. BBmolla - Flavor Cop (Confirmed to Exist)
19. Pink Ball -- INNOCENT CHILD (Confirmed to exist)
23. RCEnigma - Messenger (Confirmed to Exist)
28. pisskop - Random JoaT, flavor meshes (Confirmed via softing? Ceph)
32. gobbledygook - Friendly Neighbor (Confirmed to Exist)
26. Elements - SK (Confirmed via night result and ML claim)
40. EspressoPatronum - Getting confirmed today or dying.
Claimed but not confirmed
02. Untrod Tripod - PI
08. Rautherdir - Lie Detector (Confirmable via Death)
15. Bingle - FBI Agent
17. xofelf - Anti Cult Spotter
21. Dr Easy Bake (Weak Hider) (Confirmable via Death)
25. Miss Lynch - Backup SK, makes SK viable to win with town.
34. chennisden - Faith Healer
36. Almost50 - Martyr (Unjester?)
38. KidAmn - JK (Confirmable via targeting player with visible results (Bingle, Pine, BB)
@dave: eh. Random JOAT in this case is dreaming god esque. He targets and uses a random one of 5 abilities. I don't see that as an exact counterclaim, but I also don't really believe the claim.
@pk: Of your list, Rauth and DEB both claimed roles that die, I've been copped, and KA is pretty much the strongest remaining PR. Pine is fairly town via claim. GE is aggressively not cult leader.
@Gamma (I think): I didn't include cult cop targets after N3 because they were either independently confirmed not to be cult (the sk) or untrustworthy because they came after the claim when it was very likely UT would be recruited.
There's an inconsistency that makes me think Ceph/pk are groupscum together.
In post 9223, Flavor Leaf wrote:Cephir made a comment earlier that made me feel like he was also Thode because he thought he was my lynched target, but we’re just soulmates, and that’s how my best bud Cephir and I bud around.
Cephir isnt a thode.
And if what you are saying is true than ceph isnt your buddy.
but it does explain why you and he are connected.
In post 10939, pisskop wrote:I know EPs power
TSE was a failure
I know cephs role name
I know ml's character name
gams was a failure
PK claims to know ceph's role name, while it is hard implied that he knows his flavor to be a dwarven barkeeper from this series of posts. (The FL enemy post particularly, as FL claimed to be a drunk who was stuck in town because of a barkeep he owed money to.) This, of course might mean that both are scum together, but likely means that they are both not cult. Or at least, not cult recruiter.
In post 11124, pisskop wrote:Who should we lynch? I feel like we're kind of stalled, so now is the time to introduce new ideas.
I am currently voting DEB myself. Of EP shoots him I will reconsider depending on his flip (precisely CL or not). If he is CL I no longer have a reason to prefer dave over anyone else. If DEB is NOT the CL then dave is my voting target.
In post 11124, pisskop wrote:Who should we lynch? I feel like we're kind of stalled, so now is the time to introduce new ideas.
I am currently voting DEB myself. Of EP shoots him I will reconsider depending on his flip (precisely CL or not). If he is CL I no longer have a reason to prefer dave over anyone else. If DEB is NOT the CL then dave is my voting target.
I have a flavor result from RCEnigma that strongly implies Dave is not C.L.
In post 11162, gobbledygook wrote:I have a flavor result from RCEnigma that strongly implies Dave is not C.L.
FTR, I'm not sure what an incriminating flavor message from RCE would look like for the cult, nor do I particularly trust RCE's role to be overtly useful in this fashion.
I'd rather kill A50 over the night phase out of a twisted love for 3ps. I'd rather kill DEB over the nightphase out of a desire to conserve lynches. I'd rather kill Rauth via hammer. I'd rather confirm KA than kill him.
Of the remaining players, I think we should be killing exclusively in groups 2 and 4 until the Cult leader is dead. After Cult Leader is dead, cult should be unable to recruit and thus less of an issue than group scum, meaning we focus on Group Scum. Due to the claim, scum probably shoots ML after cult is dealt with but before we have 10 people remaining, so that's a thing.
There is a slight chance that pk/ceph is a cult gambit to pseudo clear pk as not cult leader via action. I don't really buy that, though, as they've been setting up for it for a long time.
Thus I would prefer EP shoot in {UT/Bingle/Xof/ML/Chenn/Dave/PK} and then we also lynch in that pool.
ACTION GUIDE:
DEB targets A50, who is also vig killed by Elements. KA targets someone whose ability has a tangible effect (preferably me or Pine as strong cult/NK options) but doesn't specify which. Tomorrow, KA claims his target first, and then we corroborate or counter as relevant. Pine motivates Rauth, since Rauth is dying at the end of the day tomorrow regardless. Rauth uses two lie detects unless the second would explicitly either kill him or prevent him from dying (say, by removing his vote). We still need to come up with an investigation pool for that. RCE sends a message about our 3p to someone trustworthy, potentially someone who has already received one BUT who is not a potential JK target. Survivors among BB/pk/UT/chen/dave/ceph/ge should all be able to make their own decisions about who to target, although a word of caution me/Pine is a bad protection given KA should already be there. If guidance is needed let me know.
In post 11166, Bingle wrote:I'd rather kill A50 over the night phase out of a twisted love for 3ps. I'd rather kill DEB over the nightphase out of a desire to conserve lynches. I'd rather kill Rauth via hammer. I'd rather confirm KA than kill him.
I’m having a hard time tracking the logic for these preferences. Can you explain why you want Raur?
Rauth claimed that if he activates as a lie detector once more he becomes a priest (dies if he casts the hammer vote). I would rather he die by casting the hammer vote than be vigged/lynched.
A50 has claimed (softed?) that he wins if we shoot him over the night phase, which I have no problem allowing to happen.
DEB dying in a protown use of his power is better than DEB dying via lynch/vig, but the PoE is small enough that I don't particularly think it's worth it to use him as an investigation at this point, especially since I don't really trust him to be true claiming.
If A50 dies and DEB doesn't, we lynch DEB. If DEB dies and A50 doesn't, that's a guilty on A50. Elements wants to kill as many people as possible as fast as possible, so the kill that makes 2 people die is optimal for him.
My only concern with that plan is that we're killing a lot of possible town. In particular I don't really agree with killing Rauth tomorrow, and I might prefer to give DEB one night to try to hide behind scum but eh he has done a remarkably bad job so I'm not as fussed about it.
I don’t feel comfortable telegraphing that much power, Bingle. Depending on how today goes, I could get behind Elements killing DEB/A50 in one fell swoop.
In post 11170, gobbledygook wrote:I don’t feel comfortable telegraphing that much power, Bingle. Depending on how today goes, I could get behind Elements killing DEB/A50 in one fell swoop.
It's really not telegraphing a lot of power.
In addition to the DEB/A50/Elements triad, I'm only really directing KA, Pine and RCE. RCE is of questionable use, and I'm directing Kid Amn to protect one of two people who are both high priority targets for both cult and scum. KA can't not go along with it if compromised because it would mean he's instantly caught. Pine can't not go along with it if compromised because it would mean he's instantly caught. Scum could kill Rauth to stop two investigations, but they'd also be spending a nightkill to not advance their wincon given that Rauth is a dead man walking anyway.
I can agree to delaying the discussion of whether Rauth hammers til he would need to hammer though. Really we should be completely reevaluating tomorrow anyway based on a metric fuckton of information via flips and associations.
