Newbie 1973 | Mountain | Over

[ArthurConyl]

"Always two there are, no more, no less…"
"But which was destroyed…?"

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 2.07

Aiguille du Dru, the Alps, France

---

Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

ArthurConyl

(4): PenguinPower, chazary, Mitillos, ArthurConyl

<-- LYNCH

Not Voting

(3): Ph0enix, Aloratom, Farren

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-12-29 19:55:00).

Mod notes:

A lynch![/area]

[Plotinus]

Day 2 Lynch - ArthurConyl

---

ArthurConyl has been lynched day 2. He was a

town cop.

It is now Night 2. Deadline for night actions is (expired on 2019-12-31 10:45:00). Everybody has posted in the last 24 hours so nobody is in danger of being replaced. We can do short night if all living players reply to the night start PM saying they want it. If I don't hear from everybody, or if anybody says no, then we'll see each other again in a couple days.

[/area]

[Plotinus]

Night 2 Kill - Farren

---

Farren has been killed night 2. He was a

vanilla townie.

It is now Day 3!

[/area]

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.00

Trango Towers, Karakoram, Pakistan

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(5): Aloratom, chazary, mitillos, PenguinPower, Ph0enix

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-07 10:45:00).

Mod notes:

Tuesday and Wednesday will count as weekend for prod purposes then we'll be back to normal.[/area]

[Mitillos]

VOTE: Chazary

[Ph0enix]

VOTE: Chazary

(L-1)

Also, RIP Farren. :/

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: chazary

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.01

Tsaranoro Be, Tsaranoro, Madagascar

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

chazary

(3): Mitillos, Ph0enix, PenguinPower

<-- LYNCH

Not Voting

(2): chazary, Aloratom

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-07 10:45:00).

Mod notes:

Happy new year![/area]

[Plotinus]

Day 3 Lynch - chazary

---

chazary has been lynched day 3. He was a

mafia goon.

It is now Night 3. Deadline for night actions is (expired on 2020-01-02 14:15:00). Aloratom hasn't posted in the last 24 hours and needs to reply to the night start PM so I know they're still here, otherwise, they'll be replaced. We can do short night if all living players reply to the night start PM saying they want it. If I don't hear from everybody, or if anybody says no, then we'll see each other again in a couple days.

[/area]

[Plotinus]

Night 3 Kill - Mitillos

---

I've heard a yes from everybody except Mitillos, who has been killed night 3. He was a

vanilla townie.

It is now Day 4!

[/area]

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 4.00

Uluru, Northern Territory, Australia

---

Lynching

With 3 votes in play, it takes 2 to lynch.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Aloratom, PenguinPower, Ph0enix

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-07 16:45:00).

Mod notes:

Tuesday and Wednesday will count as weekend for prod purposes then we'll be back to normal.[/area]

[Ph0enix]

Welcome to the endgame, boys. A couple of initial thoughts:

PenguinPower

Starts off by hopping on the Gyro bandwagon when Gyro already had 2 votes on him, completely unnecessary move, imo, his reasoning being "I like wagons" (64).

Continues with some basic questions, some addressed to me, but then again, it was the beginning of D1, we had to work with what we had.

And then we get to the interesting part: the interaction between him and Chazary. Given the fact that Chazary was mafia, I now had to reread the whole interaction between the two again, only this time considering if it's a TvS or SvS scenario. It starts off by Chazary voting Arthur and then quickly changing to PP. May've been random, may have been possible distancing from the beginning. Then he proceeds to unvote because he "misread the voting"? Both suspect Gyro, though Chazary doesn't vote for him, cause by that time he's being replaced, and PP does. Chazary asks PP why he hasn't unvoted Gyro, PP answers and Chazary quickly agrees, even though PP didn't have enough information in order to make a vote on Gyro that could not be considered a part of RVS (and we were past RVS by that point).

PP then asks Chazary whether the latter's vote on the former gave him any information. In his answer in 174 he gives no information whatsoever. Then again, this particular vote didn't give me any information either, so I'll give PP the benefit of the doubt when it comes to that interaction.

After that there's the whole ETL vs. PP but I still don't think ETL's arguments back then made much sense, so I'll ignore that.

The rest of the interaction between the two on D1 consists of questions that could be legitimate as well as asked in order to simulate a conversation.

Suspects Enter and votes him, but lets the others do the questioning instead of him (me, Farren, etc.), which does rub me the wrong way. By the end of D1 he's just answering questions instead of scumhunting as Farren pointed out in 505.

On D2, he continues to suspect Chazary, as pointed out in 536, although the reasons for that in this particular post are questionable. "Hesitancy over hammering Enter" despite obvious intent to hammer Enter and also the response "Poor Cheeky", which under no circumstances should be used as an argument against anyone. Also suspects Arthur but doesn't question him. In 541 I asked the people who hadn't voted Arthur by that point for their hesitancy to do so, given the fact that Arthur was obviously suspicious. Ignores my question, but in 565 proceeds to ask Chazary the same question. Then finally votes Arthur to put him at L-1.

FoS PenguinPower

And that's where we are now. @PP: Is there a reason for not voting Chazary once (ignoring D3 when his alignment was already obvious), despite you being suspicious of him basically from the start?

Pine/Aloratom

I hope we can agree that Pine didn't contribute in almost any way. So, Aloratom:

His explanation as to why he thinks Chazary is town in 542 still doesn't make sense to me. Suspects me, then later says he takes it back cause he can't find a good reason (???). I get a null read from him, which I would like him to elaborate more on now, considering his only arguments against me had to do with the votes during RVS. Didn't ask me any follow-up questions in order to have a better idea of what my alignment might be either.

FoS Aloratom

That's all from me for now, guys, it's your turn now. FoS on both (more on PP than on Aloratom, currently, but that is subject to change, of course). I especially want to hear more from Aloratom cause I haven't heard as much from him in general. I also would like to make the following point clear (even though it's obvious): Whoever makes an unfounded vote at this point must understand that that same vote is the only evidence the other two will ever need in order to lynch that particular person.

[PenguinPower]

I'll get to re-reading this tomorrow after New Year celebrations, but just a couple quick responses:

Suspects Enter and votes him, but lets the others do the questioning instead of him (me, Farren, etc.), which does rub me the wrong way. By the end of D1 he's just answering questions instead of scumhunting as Farren pointed out in 505.

And, as I explained in 514.

"Hesitancy over hammering Enter" despite obvious intent to hammer Enter

That's kinda why I thought it was scummy. There was an obvious intent to hammer from Farren...why did chazary feel the need to make an "intent to hammer" when Farren was already going to? It came across as wanting to suspect Arthur without actually taking action. Though, my rationale here doesn't hold up anymore since they weren't partners. I explained this in 536.

also the response "Poor Cheeky", which under no circumstances should be used as an argument against anyone.

Absolutely disagree. Reading tone of posts can be a good way to read people, especially if it comes across differently from their regular posting.

Is there a reason for not voting Chazary once (ignoring D3 when his alignment was already obvious), despite you being suspicious of him basically from the start?

Because, I had two stronger scum reads D1 and D2 (as explained) (353, 545, and 583) and part of chazary was associative.

Obligatory,

we're in Lylo,

don't vote until you are certain because scum can quickhammer. Happy New Years!

[Aloratom]

Sorry, yes, messed up my ornithology there. :Þ

Just got this. Took me long enough.

[Aloratom]

Addressing Ph0enix's 662 first

A. Chazary's 148: "Like you guys were saying just to press them for responses. Looking back Pp was pretty responsive anyway but I guess I just wanted to see his reaction to being voted for since he didn't have any at the time. But also like I said I think I was confused by the way the votes were distributed so maybe im not making sense."

I read it as town at first because he said that he was voting for randos to press for responses, specifically Penguin, who he says didn't have any reads to that point. This looked like hunting, and his saying that he was confused by the way the votes were distributed seemed reasonable for a new player. This comes off as a newbie making an effort to get at the truth. Looking at it again, though, his singling Penguin out as being "pretty responsive anyway" smacks of an effort to help relieve any suspicion Penguin was incurring because he really hadn't given any reads. The truth contradicts his statement. Penguin hadn't been much help to that point. In fact, to that point Penguin had made just two votes (7 Cheeky, 18 Gyro), both in RVS.

B. With regard to the null read on Ph0enix, I had to really go back and dig. When I joined, you were the most difficult to get a handle on, and I'm still unsure. Out of the box you voted Gyro, and took you a long time during RVS to unvote Gyro after Gyro was at L-2 (42 posts). In RVS for goodness sake. But you may have been AFK because you didn't post at all for that span. That really nagged at me and made you look scum. After that, you started asking a fair number of questions and looked like you were hunting. Then you were all over Arthur, but that's understandable because Arthur wasn't doing himself any favors. The Gyro thing really bugged me though. I couldn't peg you leaning town or scum. Your 1v1 in 254 with Farren with regard to wagons with Gyro and chazary confused me even after a couple of reads, and that led to my "sloppy review" explanation. I could read it as you promoting a double standard when it came to chazary, when the position of gyro and chazary was essentially the same; or I could read it as you saying that you sincerely believed that applying too much pressure on an inexperienced player would lead to a faulty conclusion.

Penguin

Penguin made five votes total:

7 vote Cheeky rvs
18 vote Gyro rvs (L-2) (Again L-2 in RVS! -- would town do this?)
306 vote ETL no explanation (L-2)
_______D2_______
584 vote Arthur (L-1)
_______D3_______
657 vote chazary (hammer)

The Arthur vote was a wagon vote and put Arthur at L-1. Then when Arthur claimed, Farren and Ph0enix unvoted Arthur, but Penguin did not, and he didn't say why he didn't. If I were scum, I would have played it that way because the tide was headed toward Arthur, and then Mitilos voted Arthur. All Penguin had to do was wait. The town wanted a lynch, whether it be scum or mislynch and not enough people had turned on chazary, so Arthur was the only viable option.

If Penguin is scum, the chazary hammer makes sense. Chazary was going to be lynched anyway in light of Arthur the cop outing him, so there's nothing to lose and everything to gain -- gaining the illusion that he wouldn't kill his partner, right?

Penguin's 70: "VCA is one reason I really like wagons. Votes mean more than words, and a harder to manipulate."

Ph0enix

6 votes total:

9 vote gyro/Mitilos rvs bc gyro voted him
60 unvote gyro/Mitilos
72 vote chazary (rvs?) bc wanted to hear from a quiet player (Possible early distancing)
114 unvote chazary: "How's that, given the fact that about half of the current votes are completely random (including mine)? I mean, I voted chazary but it's not like it'll make a difference or something." (Again, possible early distancing)
307 votes Arthur for changing positions on chazary (from scum to town) and penguin (from town to scum)
415 votes Enter for not explaining Enter's Penguin vote (reasonable)
_____D2______
508 votes Arthur bc Arthur not being logical and switching up on chazary (L-3) (reasonable)
613 unvotes Arthur after Arthur claimed
_____D3______
656 votes chazary after Arthur outed him (L-1)

While the Gyro voting bothers me, I don't think it's dispositive of Ph0enix's alignment. The Gyro situation aside, the bulk of Ph0enix's posts seem to concern ETL/Enter and Arthur, and he approaches both with good reasoning, a sign of thorough hunting, even though it didn't pan out. For example, Ph0enix's 605 lists many quotes of Arthur's and makes a decent summary as to why Ph0enix scumread Arthur (I think Ph0enix's 307 does an especially good job on Arthur, outing Arthur's flip on chazary), a solid argument. One of the non Arthur/ETL/Enter posts, 413, Ph0enix explains why he's not after Penguin -- because no one has given him a reason to be after him and he doesn't see a reason himself. I haven't seen any contradictions from Ph0enix other than the Gyro/chazary thing, and I'm not banking that there's much to that -- it just nags at me a bit.

My observation of Penguin in 554 was that he wasn't contributing much himself and letting others pick one another apart. That holds, but now that we're down to LyLo I'm unwilling to give him the benefit of the doubt like I was then. He did provide reads eventually (583), but his reads of chazary and Arthur as scum came in late. His L-1 vote on Arthur appears opportunistic, as does his hammer of chazary. If he had fingered them earlier, before the wagon had started on Arthur, I'd be more inclined to town read, but as it stands, I lean scum. Also, he places Ph0enix at the top of his town list. That's difficult for me to look past because I'm leaning town on Ph0enix.

I'll leave it at that for now and respect Penguin's request to pick this up again tomorrow. Happy New Year!

[Ph0enix]

I just want to quickly address Aloratom's point as to why I unvoted Gyro so long after the follow-up votes from Cheeky and PP. It may sound like an oddly convenient explanation, but by the time Cheeky and PP voted I was asleep and unvoted as soon as I came back. Will read PP's and Aloratom's posts in more detail soon.

Also, Happy New Year! <3

[Ph0enix]

That's kinda why I thought it was scummy. There was an obvious intent to hammer from Farren...why did chazary feel the need to make an "intent to hammer" when Farren was already going to? It came across as wanting to suspect Arthur without actually taking action. Though, my rationale here doesn't hold up anymore since they weren't partners. I explained this in 536.

Yeah, that's a better explanation than in 536, that's fair.

also the response "Poor Cheeky", which under no circumstances should be used as an argument against anyone.

Absolutely disagree. Reading tone of posts can be a good way to read people, especially if it comes across differently from their regular posting.

Maybe, but in this case I don't see how judging him based off of that is different than flipping a coin. I don't think that was something you should have questioned him about, given the fact that there was other evidence at that time.

Is there a reason for not voting Chazary once (ignoring D3 when his alignment was already obvious), despite you being suspicious of him basically from the start?

Because, I had two stronger scum reads D1 and D2 (as explained) (353, 545, and 583) and part of chazary was associative.

Yeah but why not push them then, that doesn't seem right. "Allowing people to interact without interruption" is not a valid excuse, imo. It's one thing to be pushed by 1 or 2 people, and it's a completely different thing to be pushed by even more people - if more people had jumped on Enter, for example, he could have claimed, which would have changed the way the game played out entirely. Until the last minute he thought we weren't going to lynch him in the end. I mean, look what happened with Arthur, basically everyone was on him and it played out differently. In 352/353 you say that you are not happy that both wagons collapsed, but didn't do much after that to convince the others that something's wrong with either of the two.

[PenguinPower]

Ok - I'm not going to wall like you guys did. That's just not me.

1. VCA
   : I went back and started to do some vote-count analysis, but then realized that Alora/Pine/Nomansky made one vote on D1 (on me, then unovted) and zero votes after that. The entire slot has not contributed to any wagons, lynches, pressure voting, anything whatsover, and I can't analyze that. Alora did post Ph0enix vote record, so that was helpful.
   
2. Alora reads
   : Townread on chazary ("total town" in 542), casting suspicion on both Ph0enix and me (also 542) because he hasn't seen enough from either of us. Then, in post 554 (after I've made like 2 game related posts) he now has me as a townlean with arguably the same content. When pushed on Ph0enix read he retracts and holds solidy in null, but opens today with a townread on Ph0enix without explaining it but uses it as a supporting reason to push me. Note that Alora also uses my voting record to push me despite not having one himself. I'll admit that I haven't voted as much as I usually do to push but that's a combination of the holidays, the gamestate with Enter here, and the low post count overall.
   
3. Ph0enix reads
   : Nothing really has changed from my D2 assessment of Ph0enix. His ISO is transparent and he comes across as actively sorting all players. He's analyzing all actions and (sorry for this, Phoenix) tonally genuine in his pushing. Had chazary in scum pool on D1 and D2, took him to L-1 after the guilty. Was off both EOD D2 wagons, but Arthur self-hammered (don't do this as town) and Farren had intent.
   
4. Replacements Stats
   : Just some stats that I'm also going to use in my decision here, but scumnewbs in Matrix6 had the highest slot and player replacement rate at 43.5% and 56.3% respectively (source). In 2d3, scumSE is actually higher than scumnewbs at 48.9% and 44.3% respectively (source). These are much higher than town replacement rates in both setups, especially scumSEs once we switched from Matrix6. Now, MIND and nomansky didn't confirm, so the initial replaceouts shouldn't matter. Pine is also a strong scum player so I don't know what to make of that.

Spoiler: EOD2 VC

Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

ArthurConyl

(4):

PenguinPower

,

chazary

,

Mitillos

,

ArthurConyl

<-- LYNCH

Not Voting

(3): Ph0enix, Aloratom,

Farren

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-12-29 19:55:00).

This is interesting, because Ph0enix approaches this votecount and my placement on the wagon from prior to Arthur's claim and uses it as analysis. Alora has used it to push an agenda of scumme from the perspective of his play without considering alternatives.

Spoiler:

If I were scum, I would have played it that way because the tide was headed toward Arthur, and then Mitilos voted Arthur. All Penguin had to do was wait. The town wanted a lynch, whether it be scum or mislynch and not enough people had turned on chazary, so Arthur was the only viable option.

. If I was scum, what's my motivation to stay on the wagon and get suspect once Arthur flips cop (since I know Arthur would flip cop)? At that point, chazary had countered with a claim that seemed to have swayed the town (since Mitillos had revoted and Farren had given intent). This was a prime point for scum!me to distance and vote chazary (since I would have known he was autolynched at some point) or stay off the Arthur wagon.

[PenguinPower]

Huh...that was wallier than I intended.

[PenguinPower]

Maybe, but in this case I don't see how judging him based off of that is different than flipping a coin. I don't think that was something you should have questioned him about, given the fact that there was other evidence at that time.

I don't know what to tell you...many players here play by tonereading.

Yeah but why not push them then, that doesn't seem right. "Allowing people to interact without interruption" is not a valid excuse, imo. It's one thing to be pushed by 1 or 2 people, and it's a completely different thing to be pushed by even more people - if more people had jumped on Enter, for example, he could have claimed, which would have changed the way the game played out entirely. Until the last minute he thought we weren't going to lynch him in the end. I mean, look what happened with Arthur, basically everyone was on him and it played out differently. In 352/353 you say that you are not happy that both wagons collapsed, but didn't do much after that to convince the others that something's wrong with either of the two.

My activity around the Enter thing was more of a circumstance of real life, though if you think that Enter was going to claim with any amount of pushing given what he said, you're wrong. He was given an opportunity to claim with intent on him and refused to do so. I did push Arthur, so I'm not sure what you are referring to there.

[PenguinPower]

Let me know if you're around, Ph0enix.

[Ph0enix]

casting suspicion on both Ph0enix and me (also 542) because he hasn't seen enough from either of us. Then, in post 554 (after I've made like 2 game related posts) he now has me as a townlean with arguably the same content. When pushed on Ph0enix read he retracts and holds solidy in null, but opens today with a townread on Ph0enix without explaining it but uses it as a supporting reason to push me.

Yeah, his change of heart when it comes to my, as well as your, alignment rubs me the wrong way.

Maybe, but in this case I don't see how judging him based off of that is different than flipping a coin. I don't think that was something you should have questioned him about, given the fact that there was other evidence at that time.

I don't know what to tell you...many players here play by tonereading.

No, that's fine, I just don't think that Chazary's response was a legitimate point as to his alignment in this particular case.

I did push Arthur, so I'm not sure what you are referring to there.

I'm not sure what you are referring to as well:

545: You scumread Arthur.
583: You scumread Arthur.
584: You vote Arthur.

You could say I pushed him, but you? We either have a different definition of "pushing" or there's more to that.

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: Alora

[PenguinPower]

I assumed I wouldn't have to wait this long since you just posted...my hearts racing, could you respond?