TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

[davesaz]

You already messed up when you didn't have me in town.

In your recent posts I need to remind myself you're GiF and not actually RC.

Is there a reason why this is relevant?

I feel that we as a game need to get over this.

A lot of people have never seen me play the game seriously before, so they are keep thinking that RC is proxying my play.
Everything has been 100% me though.

At this point (which is iso#43 btw) there have been at most 2 posts that are game relevant. Out of 43 (or is it 44 -- is the forum 0 based or 1 based for iso's?)
Not serious play, in truth. Plenty of posts but not serious posts.
Several posts have been dedicated to discounting the idea of using flavor at all, or of being able to use hoods to scumhunt.
I'm actually getting a scum vibe off this now that I'm reading it as a unit and not letting my eyes bounce off the meaningless posts.
I think I'm about half way there, so I'll post this observation, see what comes up in pedit, and go on.

[davesaz]

This is a legendary pagetop. It bristles with spikes of sarcasm and is encrusted with finely worked truth. <I can't do Dwarf Fortress parody justice, but points for trying maybe?>

[Gammagooey]

@gooey: Since you're at it. could you please explain -in more details- wjat it is exactly that you don't like about my posts? I am puzzled, because the first mention of it came at a time I wasn't even posting for real yet, and it was carried out to when I started posting and providing reads.

I didn't really like your opening to the game - your #15 (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11477725) has you voting GIF for a semi-serious reason that I have a hard time parsing whether it's just supposed to be a funny RVS poke or as close to a 'real' reason to vote someone as you're gonna find on page 1, and your other two posts (thinking the game would be relaxed and complaining to GIF to change his avatar) seem like they're bouncing between unserious and serious in a way that just doesn't feel super natural to me.

More recently, I don't like that you seem really hesitant when mentioning scumreads - your #1010 mentioning dave is qualified with it being a 'lead' instead of more plainly stating that you think the feeling you get from him of "hiding behind someone else" is scummy and your nom scumread is only in comparison to other people involved in the conversation/neighborhood in your #1093 (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11484825).
Like it is still early game to be fair but it feels like what I expect lurky scum to do - to not make big waves by scumreading people and pushing them (since they'd have to start posting a lot more if they got pushback on it and step up a bit into the spotlight) and just bring up townreads instead.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna say the part past the post I referenced above has more game content than the earlier part. I see something that needs a considerable amount of extra thought.

[davesaz]

I like 1177.

@GiF -- current reads on nom & Volpe? Also what were your reads on them before FL's push?

[chennisden]

I feel very icky on Dave's recent posting but I feel even more icky on the way A50 and Dave are handling each other's slots.

[chennisden]

I just don't know if it helps scum more than town to go into this. Scum already know the actual distribution. It might help town to know the theoretical limits of the distribution but explaining it might give scum a roadmap on how to fake their way around it. I tend to err on the side of caution in these circumstances. If we know a hood, and there is scum in that hood, it's mathematically superior to lynch that scum than it is to lynch an unknown from an unknown hood. Notice the conditionals there. This principle applies only if we know the hood members, and only if one of them is scum. Any town lynch from any hood containing scum harms us badly. Mislynches are extremely bad unless scum started out insanely weak.

I would need to look back to see if I screwed up what I wrote when I said I'd like to lynch scum from that hood, or if the conditionals didn't stick.

Pedit: Oh, a shot at bragging rights. Fine, I'm not being obtuse, I really am a computer scientist / mathematician with more than 50 patents (rough equivalent to about 3 dissertations worth of stuff though I haven't bothered to get the pretty heavy degree).

Dave I believe you'd be able to use math to help you win the game

I just don't believe that's what you're doing right now

[chennisden]

Everything you're saying is very obvious and the conditionals are not met

Basically, Dave, I think you're making stuff up right now

[chennisden]

Everything you're saying is very obvious and the conditionals are not met

Basically, Dave, I think you're making stuff up right now

[davesaz]

Nope, not making anything up.

[davesaz]

Are you trying to tell me I didn't just ISO 6 players and post my thoughts on them?

[chennisden]

I also have a background in math. I think presenting what you're saying as "math" is incredibly disingenuous since yes, it is technically math, but it doesn't require a whole lot of expertise to know that if you know there's scum in a hood you lynch there, etc. What ended up happening when you said "math" was you ended up scaring people into submission and cutting off real discussion around your slot, whether this was your intent or not. I think a lot of people are scared to challenge "math" and I think you shutting down discussion like this is incredibly scummy.

I don't believe that scum can coast off of neighborhood distribution or whatever and I really don't believe you think this either.

[chennisden]

Nope, not making anything up.

This is all wrt your "neighborhood math" stuff.

[davesaz]

I also have a background in math.

Thanks for sharing. For the record I don't mean to downplay that.

I think presenting what you're saying as "math" is incredibly disingenuous since yes, it is technically math, but it doesn't require a whole lot of expertise to know that if you know there's scum in a hood you lynch there, etc.

That isn't the same thing that I'm talking about. Maybe I'm wrong and more things are obvious than I think, but I'm thinking about a completely different angle that comes from knowing the hoods, and especially the clean ones.

What ended up happening when you said "math" was you ended up scaring people into submission and cutting off real discussion around your slot, whether this was your intent or not. I think a lot of people are scared to challenge "math" and I think you shutting down discussion like this is incredibly scummy.

If scum don't know the one specific thing I'm worried about, then yes I don't want it discussed. But I think you're attributing too much to my ability to stop other people from talking. I was saying that I believe X and I'm not going to give more details on why.

I don't believe that scum can coast off of neighborhood distribution or whatever and I really don't believe you think this either.

I'm fairly certain that there is something they could exploit. Coast is not the right word. It should be obvious enough that they need to gain control of the abilities. We'll need to see an actual flip before we'll know how much real danger there is.

This exchange is all about you latching on to what I said and thinking it meant something special that I'd like to lynch the scum within a set of people (if there is one in that set). It's so clearly obviously the right thing to do that I'm really taken aback by the vehemence of your reaction to it.

BTW what's the scum motivation for me doing any of this? I can totally get how you don't like it. But I fail to see how you can in any way think scum would do it.

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Espresso Patronum

Naked vote.

[...]
I still can't really feel Espresso's halo
[...]

Why?

What have you got against nudity?

[DeasVail]

Okay, I'm back up to date.

I think that nomnom and Almost50 are scum.

I probably think that dave is town but I need to go over his posts again. I will probably still think he is town.

More on all this will arrive soon.

[Ankamius]

Deas maybe you can convince me on nom being town

[DeasVail]

I don't think I would be very good at doing that

[Ankamius]

True

Maybe on nom being scum though

[DeasVail]

So I've been thinking a lot about the neighbourhood thing, because that was such a BIG EVENT and one could easily take the thought of, "oh that's quite the standout thing to do, and ultimately town-motivated to TAKE A STAND and OUT THE SCUM in your neighbourhood", and this was actually my initial thought.

However, given my reconsideration of the event and the progression since then, I'm more inclined to believe it was actually just fake outrage and hot air in the nomnom-scum style. There has since been a lot of bemoaning of "the disaster" GiF created, focus on the fact that she was receiving accusations whilst not having people vote her (totally irrelevant distraction) and a BIG MOVE VOTE on Farkran without any real attempt to progress this (despite outing her neighbourhood in dramatic fashion earlier in order to justify suspicion of Volpe).

Her play started out with initiative (which I now believe to be scum attempt at looking town), and has now become largely reactionary, while I expect that initiative would have continued if nomnom were town.

[DeasVail]

My feelings on Almost50 essentially boil down to,

almost every post he makes (over 50 of them now) seems designed to show off the fact that he has real townie feelings and thought processes.

[DeasVail]

Regarding dave, I feel that the main reason to believe he could be scum is that "walking on eggshells" impression that someone else mentioned, the fear of putting a foot wrong and this coming across in his posting. This is indeed the kind of thing I would expect from dave as scum.

However, I actually think there are situations where this is clearly not the case. 614 is such an awkward post for someone to make as scum if they're scared of putting a foot wrong. It's just, such a tangential thought in relation to the situation and high risk of drawing ire from other players. I also like his general posting in regards to neighbourhood that seems to have rubbed others the wrong way?

[Farkran]

um. no shit sherlock? he's got 3 posts that say nothing game-related. of course nobody has a read on him yet. if it was a real life week into the game then yeah that'd be shitty but we're two days in and two people spamposted for 13 pages in a day. also technically Deas mentioned him but it's probably after where you had read up to at the time.

Do you know DEB? No? Then SHUT UP, and let me do my play.

Note: If DEB flips red gooey is 95% his partner. I'm shitting you NOT. Eventually, gooey's even going to BUS the shit out of DEB if they're scum together, so DO NOT FALL FOR IT.

I would scumread maria, if she had someone i know in her team - that would give her a reason to remove me, but she has none, so this point is moot.

For people who don't understand why i am saying this, i mean, why *i* am the one who get called out for superficiality when there are people who literally make scum associatives out of one post where one guy WKs the other? I could say i don't like all of these instances, but actually this push from A50 makes sense and i don't see scum intent in there, whereas i do see some in gammagooey commenting it. Not particularly in this soft-defense of DEB, which however does look like part of his nonsense shading process against A50, but in his posts and progression as a whole.

Like, Gammagoeey's got a tunnel on A50 ever since his 23, which looked like RVS but now he's somehow justifying it. Then he agrees with chennis vs me without making the slightest effort to back it up with his own head, dodges/prodges questions and gamestate milestones repeatedly (still waiting on that read of FL and the whole volpe/nom/GIF situation, for the record), and again backs up chennis against daves for... no reason at all, except townreading chennis himself.

Why do you automatically assume that a townread of yours has inherently better reads than you could produce? Do you have thoughts of your own?

I think this only comes from being in the same neighborhood as chennis (in which case i'd like to hear what is going on there, because there's obviously something wrong from your POV) or from gooey being in a scum pt, not necessarily with chennis but with someone who might be threatened by me and/or dave (possibly FL?)

VOTE: Gammagooey

I'm quite happy with this vote, and there are a couple specific players i'm expecting to react to this.

[Ankamius]

I'll relook at noms iso when I have a moment

[GuyInFreezer]

Spring semester starts tomorrow for me so expect me to switch gear to even more of an observation mode until I see something major.
I'm gonna let A50/dave/gamma build up their post counts a bit more.
I townlean all three by the way.

Generally my reads haven't changed much, maybe some compartment on strength. I am intentionally not stating how strong I feel about my reads.