Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Datisi]

Mate i do not plan on giving up

God that fucking "Gamma is town" post lmao fuck me

[Datisi]

What's the case on DW?

[Iconeum]

What's the case on DW?

Look back at his answer wrt mass claim and Gama

[Iconeum]

I mean I’m more interested in lynching gamma than anyone else but it’s possible that a massclaim could change that. I don’t know if I’m willing to gambit on it. But I feel like you’re probably right that he’s eventually lynched regardless.

Its not much but it feels wrong

Also I don't want to worry about this slot yet

[Datisi]

Actually can you give me a tl;dr on town!Amrun

[Datisi]

Ugh I'm kinda doubtful of scum!DW bc of GL's reads

Might have to recheck that

[Iconeum]

Actually can you give me a tl;dr on town!Amrun

Scum would come into today leaving my slot open as potential mislynch

Not hard town reading

[Menalque]

catching up

[Menalque]

Datisi is very likely scum out of the pool we have left. FMPOV it has to be you or datisi.

Why does it have to be one of us fypov and what exactly makes you think we're not possible partners?

and also your proposed massclaim order?

PoE. I mean, outside chance or DogWatch/alum/gamma but I just don’t think so.

And I guess my order would be Gamma - Datisi - alimdia - Menalque - DogWatch - Iconeum - myself

I mean you're not wrong that those are NKs that I think could come from scum!me

not commenting on the gun point until we figure out an order for massclaim

what makes you question my commitment to the lynches I've pushed?

and what were the reasons you had me as town?

Day 1 I felt like you were soft pushing DDL. You were hard pushing me, but dropped it - still don’t know if you TR me or what. You kinda sorta SR Ico but haven’t pushed it at all. I don’t have a sense of strong reads from you in general and that worries me.

I had you town from you tinfoiling people TR you for your “slip.” That seemed genuinely paranoid to me. Meh.

@alimdiah: I have explained my Ico TR several times now so I won’t re-invent the wheel. However, to add to it, the way he came into today treating my slot is not what I would see scum doing because I see myself as a mislynchable slot right now. Which is exactly why your soft SR on me and the way you went about it is scummy.

can you go through (again? I can't remember if you explained already) your datisi read?

I wouldn't say I hard pushed you but yeah I probably should have pushed ddl harder but I was starting to feel generally burned out at the time and so I didn't get onto it

I am beginning to SR ico more now, but I was TRing him initially. Then I started thinking he was scum via PoE. If you're not getting strong reads from me it's because most of my strong reads have been flipped and I was wrong about most of them, which is making me seriously question if I should keep trusting my reads or I should totally reevaluate

like, potentially I'm not totally wrong but I just misread town twice first

or I've had everything back to front all game and I need to look a lot more closely in all of datisi-alim-DW

[Menalque]

I mean GA should give reads first otherwise he can just make anyone popcorn claim next without needing to give a proper reason

strong +1

[Menalque]

Also... is there anyone that is like... setting up on a lynch on Icon? I don't see anyone doing it?

Menalque kinda

what makes me "setting up a lynch" vs not trusting icon and wanting to make sure he gets proper scrutiny? I don't think I've said at all that icon should be the lynch today

[Menalque]

because it's worked so far?

we can go at a different angle. Town!Gamma knows (1) that he's by far the most likely mislynch today and (2) that mislynching him today loses him the game. why does he enter, do fuck all, and call out mass claiming after literally having it yesterday?

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying I think being terrible is more likely to come from town when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

[Menalque]

I also don't actually think we should be claiming yet bc people should be reevaluating prior to massclaim, even if we do need to massclaim soon

partly because scum is more easily caught here if they do something like push the gun really hard as scum only to then realise they're dealing with conftown

um.. being wrong or pushing conftown before they're conftown does not mean they are scum.

I'm more concerned about your lack of addressal of *everything else*.

Ikr. Gamma slot is hella frustating. See this:

Pretty sure everyone is like 'yea gamma', which is worrying because he's either being dragged as a mislynch or actually scum and his buddies are getting credit while simultaneously spreading fear about gamma being a mislynch bait.

the point is if someone is pushing conf!town hard as being super scummy then seeing how they reevaluate in the light of that person being conf!town will be very AI for that person

it would also help clarify if two people were 1v1ing and calling each other's reasons for their SRs misreps etc etc easier to see if one person was actually fabricating their read rather than it being genuine

[Menalque]

like i

was genuinely gonna ask if we should skip massclaim and just lynch Gamma

, because if he's Zown we probably just lose at some point anyway so might as well end it right now and save everyone's time, and if he's scum then we're outing the conftown today and they're getting shot tonght, and having them at 5p lylo would probably be better than 7p

okay this makes me very uncomfortable

[Datisi]

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying

I think being terrible is more likely to come from town

when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

why

[Menalque]

like yes having a potential conf town at 5p lylo is good but as mentioned we literally just lose if we lynch wrong today

and I think it's just mathematically wrong? today with conf!town I have a 60% random chance of voting scum

then tomorrow in 5p I would have a 50% chance of voting scum

whereas this way round it's 50% today

followed by 66% tomorrow

but the 66% tomorrow is dependent on actually hitting scum today

[Menalque]

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying

I think being terrible is more likely to come from town

when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

why

because of the second part of that sentence?

I think town!gamma is slightly more likely to be defeatist here than scum!gamma

all scum!gamma needs to do is to try and be a little bit less scummy than the next person to win

whereas town!gamma who wouldn't know who scum is would have to effort only to potentially shift the lynch onto another town and lose anyway

[Menalque]

I’d actually rather lynch datisi today I think. Shocking, I know.

can you talk more about why this is?

[Menalque]

Menl is openwolfing here wtf

lmao what

[Menalque]

In short menal is now going against open claiming without good reason and calling gamma, the widest scum read slot, as town zithout explaining

He's not playing to a town wincon here

lmao WHAT

[Datisi]

nope
first scenario is 0.6*0.5 = 0.3 = 30% of making it to 3p lylo
second is 0.66*0.5 = 0.33 = 33% of making it to 3p lylo

because we all gotta get it right both times

if we ignore any possible 1v1s

pedit: jfc can you SLOW DOWN

[Datisi]

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying

I think being terrible is more likely to come from town

when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

why

because of the second part of that sentence?

I think town!gamma is slightly more likely to be defeatist here than scum!gamma

all scum!gamma needs to do is to try and be a little bit less scummy than the next person to win

whereas town!gamma who wouldn't know who scum is would have to effort only to potentially shift the lynch onto another town and lose anyway

ok but Gamma hasn't just suddenly started acting like this, he's been like this the whole game

like if he wanted to actually effort i think he would've had?

[Menalque]

having concerns about a slot =/= calling them town

also I literally haven't been against mass claiming (assuming that's what you mean by "open claiming" at any point???)

[Menalque]

nope
first scenario is 0.6*0.5 = 0.3 = 30% of making it to 3p lylo
second is 0.66*0.5 = 0.33 = 33% of making it to 3p lylo

because we all gotta get it right both times

if we ignore any possible 1v1s

pedit: jfc can you SLOW DOWN

okay but I'm weighting having a higher percentage chance here in 7p as more valuable than having it in 5p

[Datisi]

it's not, it just potentially increases our time here

but i'm not even gonna fight massclaim anymore if yall want that