Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Menalque]

@Amrun what do you think about my statement on the last day and today that one of you/Mena must be scum?

why not ask me this too?

and also I mean idk about must but this seems overwhelmingly likely given that I have a green role PM and I'm p sure amrun doesn't

[Menalque]

one of datisi/menal

alim/amrun

and DW

I don't think menal/amrun fit the scumteam

Bjingle

you think that amrun/dats/DW makes sense as the scumteam?

[Menalque]

Alimdia, you too seem to not be fluid enough in your reads and questioning my re-evaluation, which I don’t like. But still slightly different from the way Menalque is doing it.

Amrun, of all players left alive, who do you feel is not really interested in sorting/reevaluation?

Without question, menal/alim/DW

okay, why

[Iconeum]

dw needs to do stuff

[Iconeum]

one of datisi/menal

alim/amrun

and DW

I don't think menal/amrun fit the scumteam

Bjingle

you think that amrun/dats/DW makes sense as the scumteam?

i currently have 0 scumteams of 3 that make sense to me

[Iconeum]

i'm busy figuring out who we should lynch

[Bingle]

dw needs to do stuff

Agreed.

[Menalque]

We all need to ask ourselves who was left alive today, and why.

Are we the mislynch? Or the designated pusher/supporter of the mislynched? If so, who was the target?

Gamma was the target I think, which is harder since he was such an easy one, but to pretend backup plans didn’t exist is silly.

Mine is sooo easy... I was left alive to champion the gamma lynch, and to be a backup mislynch. Datisi was supportive of both of these lynches, so she fits. Menalque seems to fit this bill too, though less well.

Actually the one that stands out in this one is Ico. But alim/DW are just kinda .... there. Which means they’re probably scum.

this has the ring of truth to it I think, but I think that's prob because I can see this being literally the discussion that was had in the scumPT and then adapted for here

like, gamma was probably the target, and I think dats/I was the backup plan (hence amrun opening with "I have paranoia on menal" and her SR on dats being restated), which if icon is town fits with him being hard pocketed by amrun, or if scum that scum had just decided to commit to the distancing in case it went tits up

I think DW may have been the back up back up, or the alternative backup depending on where the gun was (or maybe they were thinking DW was gun and wanted to not push too hard there? and then she became viable again after the rose claim)

leaving alim who I guess is prob scum here as he stands out?

also the fact that you're literally making an analysis post where you're going "icon sticks out" while still pushing me as a member of the scumteam is just lol

or if you're town then it's just smh

[Menalque]

We all need to ask ourselves who was left alive today, and why.

Are we the mislynch? Or the designated pusher/supporter of the mislynched? If so, who was the target?

Gamma was the target I think, which is harder since he was such an easy one, but to pretend backup plans didn’t exist is silly.

Mine is sooo easy... I was left alive to champion the gamma lynch, and to be a backup mislynch. Datisi was supportive of both of these lynches, so she fits. Menalque seems to fit this bill too, though less well.

Actually the one that stands out in this one is Ico. But alim/DW are just kinda .... there. Which means they’re probably scum.

This post screams town to me lol

Also been thinking about this, and this is exactly why I think menal is town. He opened the day by softly towning gamma, which is bleh for scum!menal to do.
I know I'm not dead because of the mislynch bait Ico meme, which isn't actually a meme but hard reality i just call it a meme to feel better

With a previous rose claim, I feel like scum could have been going for the town cred thinking they gamma lynch was inevitable. But.... it’s a good point actually. :c

yes, scum!me would have been going for the towncred instead of the win at start of day...

[Menalque]

I think if we have like a Datisi/GL/Menalque/alimdia town block, that leaves Gamma/DogWatch/Amrun/S_S/Ico as a scum pool

DogWatch is actually maybe my strongest townread in that latter pool right now. if Gamma is the designated mislynch today then that leaves Amrun/S_S/Ico, which doesn't feel like a horrifically wrong solve

all those assumptions need to be right, but I definitely like that game state view more than simply parking a vote on Gamma

i know this incriminates me as well, but I think it's important to look at why GL was the NK

I mean like this is strongly indicative of you or amrun imo, and I think GL would be a high priority kill here as he was doing a good job of getting the lynches he wanted

so letting him lead then killing him before he could lead on you would be solid play

what's your read on the implications of this for why GL was the NK? instead of just saying "it's important to look at why" I want to know what your actual analysis of it is

[Iconeum]

My most possible duo right now is DW/amrun

with a scenario for a third in my head that i'm unwilling to think about lol

[Datisi]

with a scenario for a third in my head that i'm unwilling to think about lol

?

[Bingle]

People who have asked if they can post cases but haven’t posted those cases run a risk of getting shot considering we’re almost to deadline.

[Menalque]

we still have a day, no? it's happening tonight but once I get on laptop

[Amrun]

We all need to ask ourselves who was left alive today, and why.

Are we the mislynch? Or the designated pusher/supporter of the mislynched? If so, who was the target?

Gamma was the target I think, which is harder since he was such an easy one, but to pretend backup plans didn’t exist is silly.

Mine is sooo easy... I was left alive to champion the gamma lynch, and to be a backup mislynch. Datisi was supportive of both of these lynches, so she fits. Menalque seems to fit this bill too, though less well.

Actually the one that stands out in this one is Ico. But alim/DW are just kinda .... there. Which means they’re probably scum.

This post screams town to me lol

Also been thinking about this, and this is exactly why I think menal is town. He opened the day by softly towning gamma, which is bleh for scum!menal to do.
I know I'm not dead because of the mislynch bait Ico meme, which isn't actually a meme but hard reality i just call it a meme to feel better

With a previous rose claim, I feel like scum could have been going for the town cred thinking they gamma lynch was inevitable. But.... it’s a good point actually. :c

yes, scum!me would have been going for the towncred instead of the win at start of day...

From my understanding, the game would still play out at least through night even with a townflip, no? Or am I wrong about that?

[Datisi]

Unless someone here is a N4 town rose, i don't think so

[Datisi]

I'm kinda starting to think either the team is exactly ico/amrun/alim or DW is scum

Hmmmm

Amrun, do you still think this? I recently remembered this post exists so

I now think Menalque can only be scum if gamma is.

[Amrun]

Alimdia, you too seem to not be fluid enough in your reads and questioning my re-evaluation, which I don’t like. But still slightly different from the way Menalque is doing it.

Amrun, of all players left alive, who do you feel is not really interested in sorting/reevaluation?

Without question, menal/alim/DW

okay, why

alim’s attempts at analysis at least exist but to me they don’t seem very genuine, like the note you made that she asked a question to me only and not you also that applied to both of us is valid. The reason (to me) seems somewhat likely to be that I’m now on the table as a viable mislynch so drawing attention there is more profitable.

For you, you are posting some too, but in the beginning of the day it was wishy washy and non committal without real evidence of trying to deepen the reads, but now that massclaim is done, everything you say about me reeks of either trying to ram a mislynch through on me OR confirmation bias. I am NOT sure you’re scum, so I do see several scenarios where your head is just so far up your own ass you’re not stopping to think.

DW is just not even trying.

[Amrun]

Unless someone here is a N4 town rose, i don't think so

Yes but someone could be, and is lying, or the fact that the possibility exists means the night should play. And Bingle is a n4 gun so he could hit scum. I’m pretty sure game will play at least through night. At least that’s the assumption I was working under, so to me, scum won’t be trying to throw away endgame if it doesn’t end here.

I'm kinda starting to think either the team is exactly ico/amrun/alim or DW is scum

Hmmmm

Amrun, do you still think this? I recently remembered this post exists so

I now think Menalque can only be scum if gamma is.

Listen I know I just posted that recently but I already forgot why. X.X

I think it might have been the way he defended gamma out of the gate.

I don’t know, I mean, that reasoning is still mostly valid. I did propose an alternate explanation that IS possible but not exceedingly likely, which is making me doubt myself again and want to throw things off cliffs etc.

If I exchange Icon with Menalque in my solve it might make slightly more sense... I hate everything, truly, I do.

Either way I think DW is scum soooo.

[Amrun]

I think I would really benefit from re-reading the game in context but I don’t have time. Ugh.

[Bingle]

Unless someone here is a N4 town rose, i don't think so

I theoretically could save it with a Vigshot, but I'd rather decide during the day, tbh.

If there's a scum gun still out there we need to lynch them or I need to hit tonight to keep us in the game anyway, so.

[Menalque]

@bingle I've got my amrun case partially done but bc of the way I do cases I don't have quotes in there yet as supporting evidence, just comments from reading her ISO

do you want me to post what I have now and find the bits which are evidence tomorrow or are you good with waiting for me to finish it tomorrow (I'm off work and planning to do it in the morning)?

[Menalque]

hurry up and decide tho bc me posting it in the morning once it's finished is gonna become the default in about 5 minutes once I've brushed my teeth and got a glass of water

[Menalque]

okay lights out so finishing and posting it tomorrow

[Bingle]

posting tomorrow is fine. sorry, I'm barely around.