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[chennisden]

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

[chennisden]

1. outing hoods is fucking stupid
2. talking about outing hoods is also stupid

[EspressoPatronum]

You keep telling me that outing hood membership (AGAIN: not flavour, power, or survivor) is bad, but you have yet to point to a convincing reason why.

Mathematics.

Specifically, suppose there are 6 town that need to be killed to get rid of 2 all-town hoods worth of powers. A,B,C and D,E,F
If scum kill A,B,D,E then C gets 2 nights of last standing and F gets 1 night.
If scum kill A,B,C,... then C gets only 1 night of last standing. It is clearly better for scum to know this split.
It's especially bad if there are scum and a SK, and they double hit on the 2nd night because then there is no last standing night at all.

When you run through various sequences of lynches/kills/night actions, those all-town hoods get more done when they are not outed.

Good point here - thanks for laying it out. It requires a bit of luck, but I definitely agree that a favourable kill distribution on all-town hoods can only result from not outing member distribution.

A few further questions:

What are the % chances of random unfavourable kill distributions? And is the % difference worth losing more town-wide information?

What do you think of Vex's point that it's better for scum to kill within scum hoods + leave all-town hoods alone?

[chennisden]

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

As in, scum probably are in at most 3 hoods. Probably 2

[EspressoPatronum]

Also if we massclaim

SCUM KNOW WHICH HOODS ARE ALL-TOWN. TOWN DON'T. THIS HELPS SCUM.

This is correct.

As it stands, however, town doesn't know the distribution/power/survivor power of any hood except their own (with the exception of already-revealed hoods). Scum does.

Scum also already know the members of all-town hoods. They just don't know the distribution. Dave raises a good point I'm favour of protecting all-town hoods. What are your thoughts on it? And further, what are your thoughts on Vex's point that scum have an incentive to target scum hoods?

[EspressoPatronum]

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

As in, scum probably are in at most 3 hoods. Probably 2

Interesting take. Why do you think this?

A50 strongly disagrees with your stance:

I think you might be assuming a max of 1 scum can be in any given hood.

I am fairly confident of it, and I have my reasons:

1- I was in a game that was close enough to this design recently.
2- Putting 2 scums in a 3-players hood with a "last standing man ability" sounds a bit silly. It's as if the designer wanted to reward scum for busing (or compensate them if one of them got lynched). "Hey, you lost a comrade, so take this ability to compensate for it".
3- Also 2 scums in a hood makes it an all-scum hood in practice. The hood's ability is decided by voting, so scum will always have the majority in said hood (and will never need to kill their town neighbor unless one of them got lynched/vigged)

Consider #3 for the outed abilities: 2 scums would be able to make a 3rd scum (not in their hood) untargetable, or they would make a townie that's likely to vote one of them voteless. See why it's an absurd proposition to have a 2s-1t hood in this setup?

Unless -if course- we are being trolled and there is an all-scum hood + 1 scum in one of the other 5 hoods, in which case your proposition to out the distribution becomes even more destructive to town.

[chennisden]

I would say the all town hoods,

by design

, probably have stronger powers that scum would want to exploit.

Just because there are no scum in a hood doesn't mean there are no tools for scum to control a hood. Scum know whether this is the case or not. We don't.

I think it's very bad to do this when this sort of game is designed specifically to fuck over bad town play (i.e. massclaiming hoods for no reason).

[EspressoPatronum]

I've been assuming hood distribution was randomized btw.

[chennisden]

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

Also I don't really want to be the one to talk about this but it's fairly likely that scum are concentrated in hoods.

As in, scum probably are in at most 3 hoods. Probably 2

Interesting take. Why do you think this?

A50 strongly disagrees with your stance:

I think you might be assuming a max of 1 scum can be in any given hood.

I am fairly confident of it, and I have my reasons:

1- I was in a game that was close enough to this design recently.
2- Putting 2 scums in a 3-players hood with a "last standing man ability" sounds a bit silly. It's as if the designer wanted to reward scum for busing (or compensate them if one of them got lynched). "Hey, you lost a comrade, so take this ability to compensate for it".
3- Also 2 scums in a hood makes it an all-scum hood in practice. The hood's ability is decided by voting, so scum will always have the majority in said hood (and will never need to kill their town neighbor unless one of them got lynched/vigged)

Consider #3 for the outed abilities: 2 scums would be able to make a 3rd scum (not in their hood) untargetable, or they would make a townie that's likely to vote one of them voteless. See why it's an absurd proposition to have a 2s-1t hood in this setup?

Unless -if course- we are being trolled and there is an all-scum hood + 1 scum in one of the other 5 hoods, in which case your proposition to out the distribution becomes even more destructive to town.

I'd say it objectively makes more things interesting from a game design standpoint if the last standing ability is a) good for scum and b) can't be used by scum unless they kill one of their buddies

And it objectively sucks from a balance perspective to go 1-1-1-1 wrt scum

[nomnomnom]

Chennis talks about hoods but also doesn't want to talk about hoods really makes u think

[EspressoPatronum]

I would say the all town hoods,

by design

, probably have stronger powers that scum would want to exploit.

Just because there are no scum in a hood doesn't mean there are no tools for scum to control a hood. Scum know whether this is the case or not. We don't.

I think it's very bad to do this when this sort of game is designed specifically to fuck over bad town play (i.e. massclaiming hoods for no reason).

I hadn't considered that some town's would be specifically designed as all-town.

Can you point me towards any past games that align with your assumption?

A non-random scum distribution in hoods could significantly change how I'm approaching the problem of hood information.

[chennisden]

I've been assuming hood distribution was randomized btw.

even so, the probability of 1-1-1-1 is stupidly low.

18/18*15/17*12/16*9/15 is approximately 40 percent. i would not bank it.

[chennisden]

I would say the all town hoods,

by design

, probably have stronger powers that scum would want to exploit.

Just because there are no scum in a hood doesn't mean there are no tools for scum to control a hood. Scum know whether this is the case or not. We don't.

I think it's very bad to do this when this sort of game is designed specifically to fuck over bad town play (i.e. massclaiming hoods for no reason).

I hadn't considered that some town's would be specifically designed as all-town.

Can you point me towards any past games that align with your assumption?

A non-random scum distribution in hoods could significantly change how I'm approaching the problem of hood information.

see: fogport (modded by fakegod).

[chennisden]

Chennis talks about hoods but also doesn't want to talk about hoods really makes u think

Nomnomnom makes moronic comments but doesn't want to be scumread really makes u think

[chennisden]

Chennis talks about hoods but also doesn't want to talk about hoods really makes u think

Nomnomnom makes moronic comments but doesn't want to be scumread really makes u think

[chennisden]

btw you're objectively misplaying against me if i'm scum here, nom.

doing this shit and voting me is a surefire way to make it really really easy for me to mislynch you and for nobody to give a fuck afterwards.

[EspressoPatronum]

I appreciate that you eventually came around to discussing the hood stuff, chenn.

I gotta head out, but I'll see about checking that game you linked later.

[nomnomnom]

?

What kind of post is that

[davesaz]

Pedit: this is about EP's percentages question
I have not bothered to actually work through probabilities. It's one of those things where qualitatively you know it, so the quantitative isn't needed. It's a little like getting a pocket pair and knowing you raise, but the amount to raise kinda depends on who is at the table and how they bet.

This is about the scum strategy of killing in mixed hoods
Killing in a mixed hood is a gamble as well. If the remaining town correctly interprets the situation and 1v1's scum might get lynched, and activate a last standing.

Pedit @nomnom: It's also kinda interesting that this is the same conversation that was partially the origin of scumreading me. You may or may not remember that I came out strongly against prematurely outing things yesterday.

Also came to me during the conversation:
In a 1t2s hood if scum use the ability unwisely in a way the town can detect, it's at least one guilty. So strategy is non-obvious even in the stacked scum hood.

[kuribo]

I've been assuming hood distribution was randomized btw.

That's a hell of an assumption to make when it's a key part of power balancing for this game

[chennisden]

anyway let's talk about anything that's not outing hoods

such as the weather, what you had for breakfast, etc etc

[chennisden]

btw before i go nom and EP are probably town

[nomnomnom]

but you just said

what

[Flavor Leaf]

If I were scum, I’d have figured everything out by now, just saying.

I’m not against a mass claim.

I love Day 2 massclaim

[Ankamius]

Well Ank, I'm pretty sure your town and I think most of the game is townreading me (I never thought I'd make that statement in my life) so, if I agree with you (and I do already to some extent) I can help out. Because I don't really want to keep going down the path we're going on. We're focusing so much on mechs. What we should be doing is shutting up and playing mafia at the moment. Mech talk isn't useful this hood talk is anti town. At first I wanted to call people scum for it but so many people are focused on it I guess I'm just not getting the hint across.

1: I'll comment on this later

2: Volpe is null for me, mostly because I've had pings on both sides

3: Lol trying to read FL. As I said, wait to see if FL is trying to take an advantage in the game state and look at flips. I feel like he's one of the players you need flips to solve with.
4: What are the TvT fights?
5: Y E S
6: Lol threats hahaha
pedit: Don't give me this amount of power Kuri I'll go mad

I guess this is as good a starting point as any

my townread is essentially I can't reconcile these two different occurrences and still come up with volpe being scum:

Spoiler:

Ank that is a pretty wall saying that basically I shouldn't scum read you but I've no reason to actually town read you and we're in a 50 page game already. I'll highlight the fact you're saying you're inconsistent in your games and your wording gives me the impression you acknowledge the fact that you aren't doing much but you also mean to say that you still have not got a good foothold in this game.

But if that's the case why you think it's odd or anything for me to you out on it?

Like, your reaction to it first was to be nonchalantly, and the second one to write a lot of question marks as if what I was saying was mismatching reality. But in your post you basically are saying "that's not a reason to scum read me".

But as much I'm highlighting what I think it's not cool in that wall I don't find that wall AI. Instead of writing it, acting nonchalantly in thread or saying you're just disinterested in the actual content, you could...help me produce content?

I felt you were very comfortable with the game being without direction though and you didn't even attempt to push or interact with Espresso.

Chennis I'll say please go away with the mentality that Ank wallposting "frustation" automatically makes her town.

From a quick glance at that wall she was frustated that RC was warping gamestate and it wasn't getting readable to her apparently. Here she isn't actually frustated on not getting into the gamestate, She is saying "people don't get how to read me" for being called out.

In that game it was like, page 32 and she already was pretty confident in a scum team apparently. Here she didn't even bother with Espresso or trying to get a handle on nulls. It's not the same to me.

Ank so far you lack like

your sass

your drive

your insight

You lack everything I actually like about Ank and think it shows her thought process

Here you've "tried" to interact with people almost as if it's a bad copycat version of how you go about it usually, what would make sense because it was in a very comfortable gamestate for you that you wouldn't feel like intentionally changing as scum?

I want to work with you if you're town and I don't want to tunnel but like

time's up let's rock this place man, what do you think of elems jumping on you too right now?

I'm starting to feel like Ank easy reads on nomnom/FL might even have been TMI to be honest like

Chennis explain in depth why you think Ank is likely town here

Nomnom is getting hard suspected now and was before but like, Ank doesn't seem to really mind it?

I think we should really focus on people who aren't brazenly scummy but more feel like they're playing from the sidelines

Dave and Elements are the poster kids of this

Ank is playing from the side lines as fuck and the fact you aren't seeing it irks me

I also doubt scum Ank fakes being in a bad headspace for this game

Do you think that scum!Ank would have all the usual sass/drive that town!Ank has and begin to limit her lynch pool/lynch possibilities in the game if she was content with gamestate?

Like, if we consider now town!nomnom getting wagoned, scum!Ank couldn't jump on her because nomnom would get sus, so throwing a TR and being lukewarm on it would be a good play to let town eat itself and...

exactly what happened??????

Honestly I'm dropping my confidence on you being town because you seem trying to justify why ank is town here rather than approaching this from a "is ank town or scum?"

Ok Ank let's start talking about your read on me in that case.

I know scum!me had a lot of sass about being obvtown but I'm serious this time

Why I'm not one of your strongest town reads here?

The amount of direction, flopping, emotion etc I did put in this game just sticks out like a shining beam compared to my scum games where I was far more one-directional.

Not only you didn't put me in a very high TR, you didn't approach me either.

For argument/devil's advocate sake, I want to talk about a world where both Ank/Nomnom is town.

Ank, where would you be looking at?

Guts are fine.

Ank I was starting to like you but you not giving me anything here makes me just want to go back to hard scum you.

Like, can't you give me anything...?

Anything with more substance*...

Ok I was lying, I actually thought that scum!ank would be more eager to try to make minor stuff at least when I hard asked for something but...

Hmm, should I town read that...

hmmm...

UNVOTE:

I feel like if she's scum that was...slightly cheap

not really cheap but very slightly cheap hmm.

VOTE: Elements

Time to do some justice wagoning maybe

Nomnom what's your opinion on Ank last reaction?

[Volpe] - Town
[A50, GiF, Ank??] - Likely town
[Vex, Chennis, Dave, Espresso, DeasVail, Dr EB] - nulltown
[Gamma, Volxen, Fark] - null
[Kuribo, Flavor, MariaR] - nullscum
[nomnom, Elems] - likely scum

Fark is on null now. I'm starting to get into this game again.

Spoiler:

I particularly want to play as town supporter from now on, and as town I would have either gone with you or Ank if she was putting a bit more of effort (I see why she didn't though)

Man I wanted to coast this game with Ank/RC so hard but rolling scum just made me go "bleg!" and it let me down in a spiritual level

I was scum reading Oh for associatives before replacing though

Mostly GG that had a super wordy read on them when he gave one-liners for everyone else TRs

and again gj

you got me good with that bus

I think if you had more time/more info to reconsiderate you would have eventually got fwiw but I wouldn't let you live that long if it was that kind of game :lol:

if I was at the point where I could judge shit like that, I would've been universally townread and impossible to lynch

I meant more that I would NK you if I sensed you were getting close to solving the game/understanding game state

my guess is that volpe considers me enough of a threat as scum to think it's inherently risky to try to push me from a state where I'm not particularly getting into the game into one where I'm into it and pushing my own agenda, and the game that the second set of posts come from doesn't have any real engagement with me in the first place despite the amount of time we were in the game at the same time

here volpe pretty blatantly reaches out despite scumreading me and pushes me to do more of what he's expecting me to do instead of letting me apparently underperform before I even realize that there's even a difference

I can't see how that's a scum mindset unless there's already a lot of confidence that nothing's going to change even if he pushes me, and idk if that's even possible at the point of the game that the engagement happened in