TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 1.26
Reundo (5): Menalque, Alisae, Jingle, ofrhz, mastina Kerset (2): Chemist1422, jjh927 hitogoroshi (2): Shadoweh, Bitmap jjh927 (1): Klick ofrhz (1): Reundo Bitmap (1): hitogoroshi mastina (1): Kerset Not Voting (0): None. With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline : (expired on 2020-01-16 20:30:00) Ann Notes : mastina v/la until 1/13

[mastina]

So I feel like the Reundo wagon is extremely lazy and that there's an unusual amount of reaching to have an excuse to lynch an empty slot.

Why not just lynch the slot because it's empty and you have a lot of townreads?

I was under the working impression that the slot being empty and having lots of town reads, and having legitimate reason to suspect the slot, aren't mutually exclusive stances.

The Reundo wagon comes from a number of reasons, half of which are indeed due to the emptiness of it when combined with townreads elsewhere, but I don't think that those reasons are exclusively why the slot is suspect.

The slot is suspicious because:
-Gamma had a long absence from this game before posting, not due to siteflaking, unexplained.
-When Gamma did show up, his contribution was lackluster.
-When the slot was replaced, Reundo took a while to post, did an empty readslist, and disappeared.
-This readlist was incredibly suspect.
-Reundo's follow through shows a disconnect between the readslist and his explanation of it.
-Reundo's VT claim is suspect due to his phrasing not matching the town roles.
-Bad interactions with Bitmap/Kerdet slots.
As a quick incomplete short list of them.

Among the things that I didn't list there, obviously, is the poe factor.

I am not satisfied with this as a case tho, and want to write a better one on a desktop, after I investigate two things which I SUSPECT are true and if so significantly strengthen the case but which I don't KNOW are true.

[mastina]

I've never seen oh my god you suck strategy taken to this limit before. You really do just hate people that want to vote you huh?

I've been pondering whether I should say this tbh but I feel like Kerset majorly townslipped earlier and we shouldn't even be considering voting them.

Your townslip is wrong regardless of Kerset's alignment, guaranteed. Even if Kerset were town (and I stress that that IS a big 'if'), it wouldn't be for your "townslip" and in the far more probable case where Kerset is scum, obviously it need not be said that the slip is bogus.

[mastina]

BTW it should still be readily apparent enough but just to reaffirm for the record:
I am fine with lynching any of Bitmap, Kerset, and Reundo. As long as one of those three is the lynch, I'll be happy, and I will support wagons on any three of them.
However, while I will support a wagon on any of them…
…I only have one vote.

If all three are being wagoned, I can't vote all of them at once; I have to pick and choose which of the three to vote.
In terms of suspicion, my preference would be Bitmap > Kerset > Reundo. In terms of "what if the read is wrong" contingency plans, that is to say, who would I least want to mislynch and who would be the least-damaging mislynch, it's fairly obvious: Bitmap gives more value and is thus the worst mislynch, Reundo the least value thus the best mislynch if we HAD to mislynch.

Which you may note, are inverse standards. If you go by hunting the greatest scumread, which of the two, I favor, lynch Bitmap; if you go by playing worst case scenarios where you assume that the lynched player flips town, damage control says to lynch Reundo.

There is a third standard: Most Information Gained. This is PROBABLY still Bitmap > Kerset > Reundo. Reundo is definitely the least informative for sure, the only debate is Bitmap versus Kerset, which I favor Bitmap as more information overall.

You can pick any one of these as your choice in preference. Largest scumread; most information; least damage caused to town if wrong.

But I, personally, will use an even different metric called:
I'll vote whoever has the most votes.
Right now, that is Reundo.
If two of them are equal in votes, I'll vote preferentially Bitmap > Kerset > Reundo, but my first priority is supporting the largest wagon on one of the three.

[Alisae]

Either way if I am lynching bitmap, I’m not doing it till around the 3 days left mark
I don’t want to silence RC/nsg if I’m wrong imo

[Shadoweh]

I see you changing the post order so you got a pagetop Pengu

if your scumslip is allowed to be used as evidence mastina then I will take my townslip and insist its plausable and in fact something only town in a particular instance would say

[mastina]

I see you changing the post order so you got a pagetop Pengu

if your scumslip is allowed to be used as evidence mastina then I will take my townslip and insist its plausable and in fact something only town in a particular instance would say

I beg your pardon? I do not recall calling anything a scumslip.
If the deal is, "either accept the scumslip and the townslip as real, or accept neither the scumslip nor the townslip as real", then my choice is obviously the latter especially given that I have no memory of calling anything a scumslip so as far as I am concerned, you'd be giving me free ground.

[Alisae]

I see you changing the post order so you got a pagetop Pengu

if your scumslip is allowed to be used as evidence mastina then I will take my townslip and insist its plausable and in fact something only town in a particular instance would say

This is a very plausible thing to say

[hitogoroshi]

yeah I know this post is long! When you are tracking inconsistent progression it has to be! Eat a god damn snack or something before you read it you baby

Spoiler: Part I: Bitmap votes hito but immediately signals uncertainty

Start with this for context:

I was thinking voting hito but Shadoweh barely posts so it makes me sad.

terrible post, for two reasons

1. What does Shadoweh posting or not have to do with what role PM I received
2. Given that you said:

Also hito, on mastina red flip, I'd probably suspect jj for protecting scum and one of the mastina fence sitters. On green flip, I'd probably suspect you the most.

Why is your instinct to switch to the person who's suspicious on a mastina

greenflip?

Aren't you

really sure

she's flipping red?

Then we have to hop out of ISO to find the motive force for Bitmap jumping on:

I'm v annoyed right now tbh so I stopped to ask my team for opinions since y'all won't do the thing that is taking up all my attention because of how obviously scummy it is. So far we've agreed everyone voting mastina is a scrub and should switch to hito or we're going to vig you. :patagun: More opinions in a bit

Sure

VOTE: Hito

Dodges my question (this will be a recurring theme) and votes when Shadoweh gives cover, without actually indicating if he agrees that mastina is town.

Then I'll hop out of ISO again to get this full exchange with Alisae:

Bit u should go back to voting mastina imo

If this wagon doesn't kick off, I'm going back.

Who is gonna reasonably support it other then u and shadoweh

I'll give it till Saturday morning before switching back.

So already sort of washing his hands of this push, it's just a place to park and he doesn't care that he's not convincing anyone new on it. And then ANOTHER post diminishing responsibility:

Bit u should go back to voting mastina imo

Actually why are you asking me to go back to voting mastina when you're not even on the mastina wagon?

because ur doing more voting mastina then you were voting hito

is my hito vote that bad?

I'm not really doing anything atm with my vote so u got a point i'll go back to mastina
VOTE: mastina

o ok... I promised I'd wait till Saturday morning though...

Okay, so that's Bitmap on hito. He's pretty much already waved the white flag and indicated how little fire he's got on this. He just wants to stay parked because he promised.

And another uncertainty post:

I feel conflicted in many things and honestly just unsure of my reads.

Again, for the folks at home, uncertainty is not at all a scum tell prima facie - but it sure is if you want to follow up by calling all of the town stupid for not agreeing with you. And it contrasts with more RC-bluster:

RC wanted me to leave a message for those of you asking for NSG that she's too good for y'all and that y'all suck.

So if we suck, that means that presumably we're not doing something we should be. Voting hito? If so, RC sure owes Bitmap a pep talk here to talk him out of the uncertainty of pushing my slot.

Another one from me:

bitmap I think I'm coming around to being Just Plain Scum - I can't defer based on his (legitimate!) grievance forever and it's been some sketchville recent posts. the swap to me when I'm his mastina-greenflip suspicion seems gross. and that timer on his vote seems like a really apparent way to proxy away responsibility for his vote, especially since alisae challenged him nigh-instantly on it and he's actually USING that proxy, boo.

Just posting these to point out how many chances Bitmap had to response quote and say I'm fulla shit if his teams position is that I'm scum and folks need to see it.

Spoiler: Part II: NSG arrives as a hito-agnostic

Now the first NSG post, totally in contrast with what Bitmap/RC are doing:

Hi. I have actual messages from

NSG

.

She said that I've been completely mistreated this game and that is not fair for me. She believes Klick and ofrhz (there's you're town read from NSG, ofrhz) are both locktown and has weaker town reads on [Shadoweh, Jingle, Kerset]. Her scum pool is right now [Menalque, Chemise, Reundo, Alisae] and thinks out of all of them, Alisae is most likely scum.

She has more things to say but wanted to know if I was okay with paraphrasing her blocks of text and I said that's fine so expect some more NSG in this thread down the road.

NSG doesn't have any read on me, but there's no indication here how she feels about RC/Bitmap disagreeing with her, and no indication from Bitmap if he's changing his mind to mirror her. Also the statement that NSG also thinks Bitmap has been completely mistreated (which sure implies that this wouldn't be the team to later say 'we have two paragon-level-players you idiots'.)

I tried to get them to address the difference directly:

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

Bitmap ignores this but does give a reads list that indicates he still suspects mastina more (implying he's just on me for his saturday promise) - this is actually pretty fucking sketch since his ostensible reason for pivoting on me was that Shadoweh told him everyone voting mastina was a scrub. Don't know how I missed that until now

[bitmap]
[Kerset, Klick, Shadoweh]
[Reundo, Jingle, ofrhz, Mena, Alisae, Chemist] <- Null
[hito, jj]
[mastina]

Then posts this:

NSG wanted to know everyone's opinions on her reads.

Which makes it even weirder that my post was missed, since it seems NSG is actively looking for people to comment on her reads and I had a direct question about one.

Okay kids put on your pay attention hats for this one it's important, this is why you needed all that context above

RC wants to add something.

He said that him and NSG are here just to lynch scum and not have dank/spicy reads. If you think the read we posted is correct, vote with us.

Bitmap is 'on me', but very uncertain and posting a lot about other things. RC is apparently dead-tunneled on me, but no reason why. NSG doesn't care about me at all. But Bitmap wants you to vote *with us*, e.g on hito. So why would RC say such a thing, which is pretty dismissive to NSG? Why the heck do any of them think you should vote hito, anyway? If Bitmap had misgivings and RC helped him get over them, why not post what that process looked like? But nope, just a weird and fake call for unity even as NSG is actively going for Alisae via Bitmap proxy and Bitmap's given no indication why her thing is less worthy of votes than this hito park that he did because Shadoweh told him to get off mastina, which he did despite still having mastina as top scum read.

Spoiler: Part III: Willful refusal to get anyone on the hito train despite the 'vote with us' post

First off, here's me re-quoting the questions out to Bitmap and NSG, just to show how easy it woulda been to get more out of me:

Also do you have any thoughts on NSG's reads? I got her to give reads based on people requesting it and it would be a slap on the face for her if people just ignored it.

I still got an open one to ya:

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

To which Bitmap responds, but only with an explicit punt:

@hito: I'll try to get to it but more focused on finishing the paraphrasing tonight.

Will also note here that there's a lot of ISO time going after Alisae and not me

I explicitly call out the skew:

why does NSG say vote "with us" when your vote is on me who she had no thoughts on either way. It must have been a source of friction, her havin me null when RC has me lockscum and I'm your number 2-3 - so it seems that NSG would be especially keen to notice that you're voting against her suspicions.

And we get two extremely funny posts to be back to back:

I feel like no one gives a shit about my posts so we're going to just play as a team in everything.

The quote clearly states that "RC wants to add something"

"We're playing as a ~~TEAM~~ now! Also, you idiot, this is about RCs reads which are totally different than NSGs reads."

I call out how bonkers 1969 is:

Are you truly, truly fucking tell me that RC wanted to add a comment that "NSG and him are here to lynch scum", and that what you should do is vote with 'us' meaning Bitmap and RC and NOT NSG, because you and NSG share no scum reads? RC wanted to extend the olive branch that was also a giant middle finger to NSG because he's saying "if you think the read we posted" [on hito, which was posted ages ago because NSG doesn't have shit to say about hito] "then you should vote with us" [on the hito wagon, which Bitmap gave himself a explicit minimum time on, and implied that that minimum time is the only reason he's on it in 1284]. That's the message that RC wanted to share with the thread?

And Bitmap responds by randomly cutting off most of the quote and then saying "yes":

Are you truly, truly fucking tell me that RC wanted to add a comment that "NSG and him are here to lynch scum"

yes

Then this:

@ofrhz

nsg wants u to unvote

This is disarming the reundo wagon, who last we heard was one of NSG's scumreads. Maybe this is because she wants Alisae more, for all she's talking about eir? But nothing here about whether NSG wants

Bitmap

to move his vote.

Should we just get GIF to read Alisae?

This isn't really related to the rest of the case but if NSG wants Alisae the most and Bitmap and RC are on hito why would you randomly phrase this as a question to the thread, when surely you want to figure out once and for all as a team whether alisae or hito is the better place to be.

And finally the coda: You've just seen how much they skew, how little they actually care to *push* the guy they're voting, how much NSG wants Alisae over me but without any indication their team is doing anything about it, etc. Given all of that, Bitmap's anger in the last few posts is extraordinarily fake, since he's mad he's not being listened to even as his team is light-years away from consensus:


NSG isn't even that certain in the first place:

NSG posting

------

@ofrhz

My scum pool is more of a PoE than a bunch of scumreads. Jingle town read is a super weak one and I don't expect or intend to sway anyone on it.

Whereas RC is apparently just disgusted we're un-carriable

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

Aww, poor RC can't be assed to carry us. Read all of the shit in this post and see if you can tell me what RC wants you to do and why.

And the cherry on top:

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

This sentence came from 100% me.

We're 'throwing away their advice'. RC's advice is to vote hito (at least as far as I can tell from context), which Bitmap is doing, but reluctantly and NEVER with a desire to get anyone else on board. NSG's advice seems to be to go for Alisae, or at least she's sure posting at Alisae a lot. What the fuck is Bitmap supposed to be mad about here? What action should town be taking that they aren't? It's just fake fake fake. Putting on the effect of "we're right and you're fools" because it's been working for him even as he forgets that they haven't even figured out what the fuck their slot wants to do and Bitmap's had pretty much zero interest in using

his

vote, much less caring to direct the rest of the towns votes!

tl;dr Bitmap is scum because he's putting out transparently fake anger about not being listened to even as he puts out multiple incoherent messages and cares fucking zero about the person his votes on

[Alisae]

Eat a god damn snack or something before you read it you baby

wtf how did u know I would be at brunch right now????? Are you stalking me??????????

[Shadoweh]

mastina do you just get worked up easily and start posting nonsense before rereading your own posts or something, I legit don't understand how you could say you've never called something a scumslip after those posts about Renudo's claim

[Bitmap]

I really don't wanna play this game anymore.

[hitogoroshi]

But I, personally, will use an even different metric called:
I'll vote whoever has the most votes.
Right now, that is Reundo.
If two of them are equal in votes, I'll vote preferentially Bitmap > Kerset > Reundo, but my first priority is supporting the largest wagon on one of the three.

This is a healthy way to end the day but consider also voting Bitmap if you think my points are accurate, sometimes movement with votes creates new movements ya know

If we don't get Bitmap I'm with you on reundo, but I think the point now is to make everyone engage with what Bitmap is doing to MAKE the better lynch we want.

mastina do you just get worked up easily and start posting nonsense before rereading your own posts or something, I legit don't understand how you could say you've never called something a scumslip after those posts about Renudo's claim

normally don't like getting in these spats before the other person gets to speak but since mastina is like god damn lock town anyway, it's pretty clear from context that mastina is interpreting your question as "your scumslip *about Kerset*" instead of what it feels like you mean with "Since you have a scumslip about *any player* you're not instantly divulging, does that not also mean that I can post a townslip about *any player* without divulging" or something like that

so you're just kinda talking past each other. fwiw I'm generally cool with playing along with secret towntells d1, but I wouldn't trust one outta you what with the whole hanging around in thread too scared to push a scumread, but also I want {bitmap/reundo} a billion times more than kerset so I guess I'm playing along anyway just as a coincidence

I really don't wanna play this game anymore.

do I have a deal for you

[Kerset]

Hey look reundo is still gone. Are we really going to wait another day for his second prod or comeback? We have 4 days left, if he just make one crap post right before prod, then this is basically the last thing he has to do on day 1. You took pressure away from him, which was the last tool to make use of him. Now you will look for other topics and let him go under radar. You even ensured him that you won't lynch him until you get more information, which gives him comfort to lurk even more.
VOTE: reundo

[Kerset]

@hito
Your idea in general can be applied but is it valid on him? I was looking bitmap ISO of his previous games and i haven't spotted his "desire to get anyone else on board". Can you find that?

[hitogoroshi]

Hey look reundo is still gone. Are we really going to wait another day for his second prod or comeback? We have 4 days left, if he just make one crap post right before prod, then this is basically the last thing he has to do on day 1. You took pressure away from him, which was the last tool to make use of him. Now you will look for other topics and let him go under radar. You even ensured him that you won't lynch him until you get more information, which gives him comfort to lurk even more.
VOTE: reundo

Your concern is noted but don't gotta worry, we're doing reundo if we don't get Bitmap. I'm not gonna "let him live as long as he continues to deny information"; it's just that chasing positive lies is better than really telling lack of evidence for a variety of reasons. They're probably just buddies and this is the better order to do it because I'm quite good at wagon mongering and so I want to swing at this one while it's fresh - if Bitmap gets a whole night to reset, it's much easier to just play revisionist history about this fake anger. Now's the best time there will ever be to force a reckoning on this stuff.

There are some towns where I wouldn't want to risk splitting wagons 4 days to deadline but this isn't one of them; the bloc is pretty active and coherent so we have plenty of time to try building a Bitmap push and still decamp to reundo if people think I'm off-base here.

@hito
Your idea in general can be applied but is it valid on him? I was looking bitmap ISO of his previous games and i haven't spotted his "desire to get anyone else on board". Can you find that?

When I say 'desire to get anyone else on board', I'm referring to his frustration at what we're

not

doing, which implies there's something we

should

be doing instead. For example, this one:

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

We are being legit un-carriable right now. That implies that we could act differently, in a way that would make us carriable. What do you suppose that action would be? What do you suppose the 'carry' attempt is that we're ignoring? Remember, you can see that Bitmap's vote is on me and yet notice how little Bitmap wants to do with me.

Similarly:

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

We are throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players. That implies there are actions we could take to instead value the advice of the 2 paragon level players. What do you suppose those actions would be? Who is he appealing to here?

That's my point. It's not saying that Bitmap does a better job wagon-mongering at town - I don't have any Bitmap meta at all and have no clue if that's what he does. It's that Bitmap's anger we're not working with this team is totally at odds with how god damn impossible it is to even articulate what working with his team would entail.

Or, to put it another way: If Bitmap/RC/NSG all hate hito and post more than zero reasons why it's good to hate hito, it's not suspicious that they're frustrated that no one else but Shadoweh wants me. If NSGs points on Alisae get Bitmap and RC to 180 and slam that Alisae vote, it's not suspicious that they're frustrated no one else wants Alisae. The problem is how uncertain all of their actual positions are vs. how much Bitmap wants to play the frustrated card that he's not being listened to.

[Kerset]

I played mini theme with bitmap. Back there RC gave us reads and died. Bitmap decided to just follow RC reads and keep insist on lynching RCs scumread. This is the kind of thing he does:

I don't like the Chemist slot.

Maybe we should just all claim today...

RC left a small list of who we should lynch today.

RC said we should lynch Alchemist + Chemist today btw.

I wanna sheep the dead guy who nailed 2 scum.

Do we need any other reason besides sheeping RC?

Lets be real here.

Pretty sure we win if we just lynch Chemist, Alchemist, and Gamma.

Is this determination that you would expect?

[hitogoroshi]

Is this determination that you would expect?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Bitmap said he's just playing as RC proxy on hito for reasons blah blah and blah. But remember, his vote on me because

Shadoweh

asked him too - even though Shadoweh was asking him in the context of "everyone who's voting mastina is bad" and he did the switch while still having mastina as his top scum read. Since then, he has literally not said one thing intimating I might be mafia. We don't even have an explicit post affirming that I'm RCs favorite kill, we just have to assume it from context that RC is saying to 'vote with us' while Bitmaps vote is on me.

So like, if there's something from RC that Bitmap is actually just sheeping and is frustrated we're not also sheeping, don't you think we would have heard literally a single thing about it since he first cast that vote 600 posts ago? And don't you think NSG would have anything at all to say about it, since she doesn't care about me either way and has gone as far to say that Alisae is 'cornered'? For us to assume this is Bitmap-town sheeping his teammates reads, we have to assume an awfully elusive hito opinion in that discord - so strong Bitmap can say nothing about it but still be frustrated no one's voting hito, and so strong that RC has written us off as un-carriable; yet also so weak that Bitmap never felt like clarifying his way off his initial uncertainty on my wagon, and so weak RC has nothing to say about it, and (this is the biggest one for me) so weak that NSG doesn't even think I'm worth

commenting

on, positive or negative. I don't think there's any sort of coherent stance on me that explains this action/passion mis-match, which is why it seems way the easiest explanation that Bitmap is just lying because complaining that he was wronged is why Klick and myself (and maybe others? I forget) gave him so much distance in the first place.

[jjh927]

VOTE: Bitmap

[Alisae]

ok so hito I'm reading this post and I don't have a snack
I need to know, is the snack mandatory?
Like if I ate a snack, will it change my view of the case

[Alisae]

cause currently I'm looking at these posts with a snack

[jjh927]

I read the posts without a snack

Possible side effects include voting Bitmap

[Alisae]

without*

[Alisae]

I read the posts without a snack

Possible side effects include voting Bitmap

I think I should eat the snack then and see if I have a different opinion

[hitogoroshi]

snack is not mandatory if you have the patience to open the spoilers and read the quotes within without burning through your glucose reserves and dipping out partway through. but if your eyeballs start drifting because there's just so much evidence...Buddy, It's Snack Time

I reccomend the chocolate dipped Chewy bars because it's just a chocolate bar but since there's granola in the middle you can kinda kid yourself that you're not just eating a candy bar