Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Farkran]

no no no no
His point in claiming is to either force scum into d1 1v1 which is bad for them, since it's either leader or possibly a PR if I remember the setup correctly, or just...ignore them and allow them to avoid a mis-recruit which is obviously pro town. What I say is that clearly cult will not CC, and are far more likely to fakeclaim VT when they dakeclaim, so this just helps scum.
Worst case scenario is even supremely worse, where there is no UT and scum know this and THEY claim UT thus "conftowning" themselves until PRs die in the game when the setup becomes clearer.

I still don't understand how outing the UTs helps scum, even if everyone else claims VT. We get two ICs as opposed to... nothing? I would understand your concerns if cult weren't capped at 3 recruits, but... they are. Other PRs should never claim right now, i think we agree with that. UTs are different. Or why aren't they, in your opinion?

Anyway, that is a bad bad idea, and suggesting it helps scum, and since the leader wouldn't want so much attention, this is probably not him

So, uh... why are you voting bingle again? Not interested in defending him right now, i think he is still =rand leader, but i am trying to understand your train of thoughts. What would you do if you were a cult leader?

[Hectic]

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

There's no harm in waiting a day before doing so for the reasons I've already given.

[Hectic]

I claim not UT.

Sigh

[Hectic]

If the UTs exist, they can just claim tomorrow with no harm after they've possibly blocked a recruit. There's no setup with just 1 UT, so the cultists can't fakeclaim double UT before day 3, since they can only do that if they've recruited both PRs. Hope that makes sense.

As far as I can tell, it was optimal to mass claim tomorrow rather than today because of the above, but it's too late for that now. I didn't realise Bingle had already claimed also, I thought his "not UT" was correcting his previous post.

I'm also Not UT.

[Farkran]

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

There's no harm in waiting a day before doing so for the reasons I've already given.

Don't you think that massclaiming UTs on day 2 allows cult to counterclaim better? Suppose we do not claim d1, but instead we claim d2 (to reiterate: this is only about UTs, no other role should claim).

Player A: i am UT!
Player B: i am UT!
Player C: i am UT!
Player D: i am UT!

By day 2, cult will LIKELY have 3 members to work with, two of which are expendable. What do we do with those 4 claims? By doing that during day 1, we can control the damage done by wifom CCs. Either we do that d1, or we don't do that at all, imo. I support doing it though.

pedit: well, nevermind

[Farkran]

Also VOTE: poyzin

I don't think shos making setup spec is cult, even if he is probably wrong

[Hectic]

SH0S YOU'RE C0NFUSED

VOTE: Salamence
Hey, Salsa, what's your opinion of Bungle pushing massclaiming not UT, and do you think it was put forward with good intentions?

[Hectic]

@Farkran: I see what you mean there, I hadn't considered the scenario where cult claim double UT while knowing there are other PRs that WILL counterclaim them. This is more fine then.

[Kanna]

Still haven’t meta’d Farkran but since we’re doing this, I’m not UT either. Be back later.

[Kanna]

Yeah, do think this is a good approach

[shos]

sigh
nvm you guys practically already claimed. kinda forcing my hand here.

Not UT

.

[Kerset]

Vote Count 1.02

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

No łynch

(2): Kanna, Not A Korina Alt,

Bingle

(2): Poyzin, shos,

Farkran

(1): Salamence20,

shos

(1): No łynch,

Salamence20

(1): Hectic,

Hectic

(1): Bingle,

Poyzin

(1): Farkran,

Not A Korina Alt

(0):

Kanna

(0):

Not Voting

(9):

---

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

No łynch

: shos,

shos

: Hectic,

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00).

Mod notes:

Not A Korina Alt has v/la on weekends

[Bingle]

What I say is that clearly cult will not CC, and are far more likely to fakeclaim VT when they dakeclaim, so this just helps scum.
Worst case scenario is even supremely worse, where there is no UT and scum know this and THEY claim UT thus "conftowning" themselves until PRs die in the game when the setup becomes clearer.

I agree that cult will clearly not CC UT. However, the 2/6 chance for an unsuccessful recruit of a UT does not outweigh the 2/9 chance for scum autowin if they hit the sole town PR. Further, an unsuccessful recruit actually doesn't help us much, since we don't know it happened until late game. Town almost certainly loses unless we hit cult leader early.

[Bingle]

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

In column 3 rows 1 and 2 there is only one PR. If the sole PR is recruited, then cult can literally have that PR and the CL claim UT and town autoloses if they trust it. Therefore, any UT claim after D1 without specifically a roleblocker flip is untrustworthy.

[Bingle]

Additionally, we should probably hypoclaim JK targets at daystart.

[Bingle]

Not Korina, why are you not complaining about not being scum?

Still want that answer.

[Farkran]

Updated readlist:

TOWN
Kanna
Hectic
Bingle
Shos
Korina
Salamence
Nolynch
Poyzin
SCUM

Moved Hectic, Bingle and Shos up for what looked like genuine setup spec. Setup spec by itself usually comes from town, debating on which is the best strategy is almost always TvT. I still like kanna the most.

Moved Salamence down for not contributing enough.

My current guess is that nolynch, poyzin or both can be used as solid wagon solves for today. The read on no lynch is mostly gut/tone based at this point, i... was pinged the wrong way by his interaction with the UTs argument. Poyzin on the other hand just looks like scum trying to skirt the gamestate until he can prey on a real wagon, i don't like that at all.

Waiting for korina.

[Null Vote]

Setup spec by itself usually comes from town, debating on which is the best strategy is almost always TvT.

I disagree.
Mechanical discussions are the very easy for scum to engage with, while not moving the game forward. Mechanical talk is always NAI.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Ok, before I reply to other things:

1) I haven't checked MS at all since I last posted. I've been busy with other things, and I don't have any ADHD medication, so my ability to effort/focus is zero.

2)

I'd like to hear what korina has to say about it, being the best expert in cult -and this particular setup- here

I don't think that Korina is in the playerpool.

BITCH, READ MY NAME AND READ MY FIRST POST

HI GUYS I'M TOTALLY NOT KORINA PLAYING UNDER AN ALT
I HAVE NO IDEA WHY YOU'D THINK THAT AT ALL
THAT'D BE TOTALLY ABSURD IF THAT WAS THE CASE, AMIRITE?
WELL I'M GLAD THAT'S TOTALLY NOT WHAT IT IS, HAHA

LITERALLY IT'S OBVIOUS THAT I'M KORINA

[Not A Korina Alt]

Also, claiming UT is horrible and anyone who does should feel bad

[Not A Korina Alt]

The power of the UT is to prevent cult from recruiting for a night

because the cult doesn't know they're unrecruitable

. By claiming this early on "I'm not UT" you're painting a target on your back for cult. Cult knows you're not UT, therefore you're cultable.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Yes, having an IC by having them claim out is good, but it should not be a D1 massclaim thing. D2/D3, when we're guaranteed to have three cult? Yes, that's fine then. We'd need them to claim out. Additionally, yes, scum will not CC UT claims. It's suicide for them. Literally everything CCs UT.

[Not A Korina Alt]

If you're UT, you should be a town leader, and try to bait out the recruitment. You have nothing to fear, you can't die, therefore you lead. You should not ever claim UT D1, unless you're about to be lynched. I need to think about what Bingle suggesting we all claim UT/Not UT, and if it's townie or not.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Anyways, other posts:

That there's likely one scum on each of the wagons. The fact nobody really got to L-1 makes me think both scum were on either you or NL, or split, like I said. I wanted to RVS NL since the start for the reason of him making a shitty joke about no-lynch not being an option.

you think scum are more likely to put someone on L-1?

NOT FOLLOWING YOUR LOGIC, KORINA??????

Also, I still wanna powerlynch Bingle. Bingle shouldn't be allowed to survive to MyLo IMO.

EXPAND

1) If no scum are on them, yea.
2) Read the last iteration of this game. Bingle replaced into a culted slot and won. He shouldn't have won.

Fark is also town btw. I'm calling it now.

Why is this?

Reasons.

but I WANNA HEAR MORE FROM YOU BECAUSE YOU'RE AMAZING, POYZIN

Awww, you've inspired me! I'd recommend getting a better keyboard though so you don't accidentally hit the caps lock button as many times as you have. I'm getting shady vibes from "no lynch" the player, and the cult leader claim out of the gate left me with a bad taste in my mouth. I mean, it obviously was a joke because you don't simply claim to be the leader of the anti-town faction. ...but that's the thing... For some reason I'm feeling that this was just a really risky scum play, to say that to appear as town by making such a blatantly false joke.

Somebody please talk some sense into me because this is definitely unreasonable... right?

I have mixed feelings on this post. This post feels townie, on a surface level, but past that, I'm unsure what to make of it?

Bingle, what's your updated opinion on shos and poyzin?

I choose not to think about them.

Not Korina, why are you not complaining about not being scum?

I think it’s vaguely for the best if UTs claim D1. If we have a UT massclaim our EV shoots way up and there’s nothing scum can do to stop it. OTOH, if scum claims UT they will be found by any other or claim and both cultists have to claim.

NO, THIS IS BAD. ALREADY EXPLAINED WHY.

I think it’s vaguely for the best if UTs claim D1. If we have a UT massclaim our EV shoots way up and there’s nothing scum can do to stop it. OTOH, if scum claims UT they will be found by any other or claim and both cultists have to claim.

Not UT

Is that so scum can't claim UT in the future after recruiting other town PRs?

BRILLIANT.

Unkillable ICs would be nice to have honestly. But does the roleblocker work on unrecruitables?

Unrecruitable is a passive. They don't actively submit an action saying "I wish to be unrecruitable tonight," they just are. A roleblocker targeting them wastes the night. If you meant rolestopper, obviously. They take priority over everything else.

Wait I think Bingle’s idea could potentially work because we’ll either get
> 2 confirmed town
> a counterclaim because there are other PRs
> nothing if in other setups, but we didn’t lose anything

We do lose a lot if we're not in C1 or C3. The cult automatically learn there are no UTs, and if we're in an A/C setup, they can automatically narrow down the setup even more. Additionally, we lose the biggest power of the UTs: Causing cult to lose a night. IC is very useful and all, but that doesn't help stop the cult from growing. The hidden UT does. While yes, cult are limited to three living cultists, but cult failing to recruit buys us an extra day, delaying MyLo situations.

I'd like to hear what korina has to say about it, being the best expert in cult -and the creator- here

FTFY

Not Korina, why are you not complaining about not being scum?

Still want that answer.

I DIDN'T ROLL CULT, FUCK MY LIFE. I HATE EVERYTHING. That better? I also have zero motivation to push that joke atm, and the fact I'm playing under an alt. If I was playing under Korina, I would complain, but I'm not. Instead, the joke of "I'm clearly not Korina playing under an alt you guys!" takes precedence over "I didn't roll cult!"

Updated readlist:

TOWN
Kanna
Hectic
Bingle
Shos
Korina
Salamence
Nolynch
Poyzin
SCUM

Moved Hectic, Bingle and Shos up for what looked like genuine setup spec. Setup spec by itself usually comes from town, debating on which is the best strategy is almost always TvT. I still like kanna the most.

Moved Salamence down for not contributing enough.

My current guess is that nolynch, poyzin or both can be used as solid wagon solves for today. The read on no lynch is mostly gut/tone based at this point, i... was pinged the wrong way by his interaction with the UTs argument. Poyzin on the other hand just looks like scum trying to skirt the gamestate until he can prey on a real wagon, i don't like that at all.

Waiting for korina.

I don't like this readlist at all. Mostly due to Bingle.

[Farkran]

@korina

What else don't you like besides bingle being third place?

Also, on a first glance (with zero experience for this setup) i would think that you're wrong when saying that a non-UT claim paints a target on your back, and it does not surpass the benefit of having town ICs, but apparently there are no UTs so it makes no real difference right now.