Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

teacher · Post Post #3200 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:27 pm

Actually not a bunch, but Bella’s making the same point.

@RC since you’re around I actually want to ask you whether you were serious when you think it’s more probable that scum put themselves on evens than we have a semi protective? Because if I were scum, I’d absolutely kill last night - even with your skill, you’d have to hit the “right”scum and there’s like no controlling for that, so it’s like Max 20% risk of a kill even accounting for superhero RC (which ducks flip shows isn’t the case, but that’s a postgame topic). Honestly that comment just felt wrong, and more striving for wifom than anything else you’ve done.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #3201 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:29 pm

I was 100% serious, it's what I would do as scum because I think it would be reasonable to assume I have at worst 1/6 odds of hitting scum and if I hit scum and get them lynched and then scum get forced to kill me, the damage done is staggering in terms of both a lost mislynch on me as well as a lost scum member and being forced to nightkill me anyway.

I don't think evens matters a whole lot, I have no killed in situations like this more than a few times as scum, I think it's the safe play from scum PoV since if they already know I'm the investigative they don't have to fear being ferreted out by a cop or whatever if they skip nights.

Bellaphant · Post Post #3202 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:29 pm

In post 3194, teacher wrote:
In post 3185, Aristophanes wrote:"Objectively didn't suck"
...
In post 3158, teacher wrote:VOTE: tw

Quack
How exactly did this save his iso? XD
I mean you agree there’s a shit ton more to my iso on why I voted duck right? Why are you playing dumb?

This!

@math, I don't know how I feel about plum. I had then as town when they were in your Poe scum pool but the not voting Ari thing was sup r questionable.

I also think you tr tris? I can't get them above null.

I don't think scum no kills here at all

P-edit, skitter said plum things.

Tbf I think RC and plum are a lot easier to sort with Ari flipped.

skitter30 · Post Post #3203 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:30 pm

ari's posts on this page are all awful

skitter30 · Post Post #3204 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:30 pm

last page, whatever

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #3205 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:30 pm

Like you're seeing this from the point of view of town who doesn't know that I'm town. If you're scum who knows that I'm town it is a massive and unnecessary gamble to take if you're assuming I get lynched the next day if you holster.

MathBlade · Post Post #3206 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:31 pm

In post 3203, skitter30 wrote:ari's posts on this page are all awful

Why do you say that? I thought they were okay.

skitter30 · Post Post #3207 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:31 pm

In post 3201, RadiantCowbells wrote:I was 100% serious, it's what I would do as scum because I think it would be reasonable to assume I have at worst 1/6 odds of hitting scum and if I hit scum and get them lynched and then scum get forced to kill me, the damage done is staggering in terms of both a lost mislynch on me as well as a lost scum member and being forced to nightkill me anyway.

I don't think evens matters a whole lot, I have no killed in situations like this more than a few times as scum, I think it's the safe play from scum PoV since if they already know I'm the investigative they don't have to fear being ferreted out by a cop or whatever if they skip nights.

no, it's a really really really stupid way to play scum

skitter30 · Post Post #3208 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:31 pm

In post 3206, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3203, skitter30 wrote:ari's posts on this page are all awful
Why do you say that? I thought they were okay.

tone's p bad

Bellaphant · Post Post #3209 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:32 pm

@rc, can you rephrase that?

@math, aris posting is really bad

skitter30 · Post Post #3210 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:33 pm

In post 3189, RadiantCowbells wrote:I do not think that reading people off of the TW votes is a good idea unless you think that scum were trying to keep Aristophanes alive.
Also someone mentioned this so I'll bring it up: the reason I targeted Teacher was that I thought that he was likely to make the kill if he was scum whereas most other targets were crapshoots.

um there is almost for sure scum on that wagon irregardless of your alignment

if you're scum, well, it's you
if you're town scum took advantage of that shitshow to get a mislynch. i would be shocked if there weren't scum on that wagon in this scenario
i think that looking at the wagon is a great place to look for scum rn

MathBlade · Post Post #3211 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:34 pm

Okay...Go into more details please both of you esp Bella

We need more people talking with more details.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #3212 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:34 pm

I'm saying that me getting a guilty dramatically reduces scum's chances of winning and that the reduction in scum's EV is probably greater from risking that than leaving anyone else alive if they're assuming that I'm the lynch anyway. I think there is only one player/slot in this game that scum are likely to see removing as a priority and if they think I'm the lynch, well, that slot doesn't meaningfully impact the game being alive for an extra day. But okay. I don't see the point in trying to convince you guys of this.

skitter30 · Post Post #3213 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:35 pm

In post 3196, Aristophanes wrote:Obv*

And so what he ended the day early? He also like, delayed that hammer to let the thread continue for a while which I don't think had any protown use to it.

I think you're reading way more into his motivations, Bella.
And I think you scumreading me is tainting your view on him.

also this is p bad ^

skitter30 · Post Post #3214 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:35 pm

i'm not sure how to read the defeatism

MathBlade · Post Post #3215 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:36 pm

In post 3207, skitter30 wrote:
In post 3201, RadiantCowbells wrote:I was 100% serious, it's what I would do as scum because I think it would be reasonable to assume I have at worst 1/6 odds of hitting scum and if I hit scum and get them lynched and then scum get forced to kill me, the damage done is staggering in terms of both a lost mislynch on me as well as a lost scum member and being forced to nightkill me anyway.

I don't think evens matters a whole lot, I have no killed in situations like this more than a few times as scum, I think it's the safe play from scum PoV since if they already know I'm the investigative they don't have to fear being ferreted out by a cop or whatever if they skip nights.
no, it's a really really really stupid way to play scum

Let this go.

It’s stupid but only has a chance at the cause slipping up it is them.

There is no benefit to correcting RC here.

skitter30 · Post Post #3216 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:36 pm

it's wholly uncharacteristic of you, as either alignment @rc

teacher · Post Post #3217 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:36 pm

In post 3205, RadiantCowbells wrote:it is a massive and unnecessary gamble to take if you're assuming I get lynched the next day if you holster

A. Whether or not they holster doesn’t change (sig) the odds of you getting lynched today.

B. You’ve claimed full detective. The odds of their being a full protective are slim with that, so why not just go to odds by taking you out (no gamble at all, and it’s not like your reads were right).

C. LOL @ you having at least a +15% chance of hitting the right scum. You didn’t even hit scum at all.

I actually was townreading you yesterday too but that open sharply reduces it actually.

Pedit - will actually read the six posts since I started this after.

MathBlade · Post Post #3218 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:38 pm

In post 3190, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 3187, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3181, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 3179, MathBlade wrote:Active lurking is a thing.

You still haven’t given reads.

I don’t get this whole “being townie” thing being optional to people it isn’t.
Uh...
In post 2509, Aristophanes wrote:Aaaaanyway before I die...

Town: TW, RC, Math, Icon
Lean Town: Skitty, RCE
Null: XtoxLive, Bella
Lean Scum: Teacher, Flopz, Plum, Tris
Those are not expanded on. There’s nothing deep.

Like every time I see your posts you just feel scummy. Can you like convince me you’re town please?

My teammates want me to tunnel you and I am trying not to me that dude.
I expanded on them by giving thoughts after each Iso. I gave reasons for most if not all of them!

I also rethought a few thoughts from my initial reads and ended up with Skitter a lot higher than they were originally.

I can find you my posts with reasoning on each one if you like?

But it's not like I didn't put the work in to get there and it's not like I didn't actually state my reasons. Maybe it all got drowned out tho by the infighting between literally almost all my strong townreads last phase.

And my meta here is probably pretty different than it has been so tell your team, lovingly, that they are wrong. Not necessarily bad, just wrong.

Then help me out.

Push someone. Hunt.

Do something. Otherwise vote stays.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #3219 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:38 pm

That depends if you think I was trying to hit scum or trying to hit someone who I could get meaningful information out of an inno from.
I targeted you because I thought you had some scum equity and were disproportionately liable to make the nightkill if you were scum.

If I was looking for a claimed target that wouldn't face any scrutiny there's a long list of names.

MathBlade · Post Post #3220 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:40 pm

RC silly question, humor me
Describe my scum meta in a paragraph or less?

MathBlade · Post Post #3221 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:41 pm

In post 3214, skitter30 wrote:i'm not sure how to read the defeatism

I think I do but I kinda wanna poke around some more and see some more things first just in case

skitter30 · Post Post #3222 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:42 pm

i'm a little nervous that he's doing that to get people to back off him today given yesterday

also @rc if your'e town and scum are that scared of your guilty they just .... nk you ?

skitter30 · Post Post #3223 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:43 pm

also isn't a detective roughly the same strength as tracker or am i mixing it up with psychologist?

isn't the one where you get a positive result if someone performed an nk ...

so a detective inno n1 doesn't mean that much really

Aristophanes · Post Post #3224 (ISO) » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:45 pm

In post 3222, skitter30 wrote:i'm a little nervous that he's doing that to get people to back off him today given yesterday

also @rc if your'e town and scum are that scared of your guilty they just .... nk you ?

I mean, hood chance we lynch him at some point right?

I'd definitely be pushing for his lynch as scum